Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....

[fieldafm]

The Jaxson's predictions have all come true regarding this boondoggle.

In a group text months ago, I calculated that more than half of the (INFLATED) reported 'trips' were from JTA employees and contractors.  According to this, its less than half.... but frankly the 89 daily trips they are reporting is also a fake figure.

https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/local/jta-employees-paid-ride-navi-shuttle-inflating-ridership-taxpayers-dime/KCMNOIRLQ5B6HGQQIAZK45ZSTA/

[CityLife]

For those that aren't going to read the full Action News article, this is a must see:

When we informed Diamond of an August 4th internal JTA email, he was shocked. It's addressed to a group of JTA employees, setting up a calendar and asking them to "sign up and ride (the NAVI) tomorrow and beyond" because "we are in dire need of riders. [frownie face emoji.]"

[Charles Hunter]

Action News has posted the Duval DOGE questions, and JTA's answers. I think this from the Action News reporter is a good summary of JTA's response to City Council

Jacksonville City Council member Rory Diamond submitted 17 questions for JTA, and the clear theme from JTA's answers is "you can't touch us."

JTA's response letter is embedded within the Action News story: https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/investigates/city-council-has-no-recourse-jta-answers-duval-doge-questions-about-ultimate-urban-circulator/SNCMFU64TND53J7BXD5V3QCW3U/


It's a message encapsulated with this line, repeated three times in the authority's letter: "The JTA is solely responsible for delivery and management of the project," and even goes on to say  "the City or Council has no recourse if the project fails to meet key benchmarks."

Another interesting quote from the article

JTA also make sure to say the Authority, no one else, is solely responsible for delivering it, with oversight from the JTA board. We should note, JTA's board has not once in the two years Turner has covered the authority voted against anything CEO Nat Ford has put forward.

The last board member who publicly questioned Ford during a meeting was removed by the mayor before her unanimous first term ended.

C/m Diamond's questions are good, and the responses reveal JTA's arrogance. I wish they had asked, "Why is JTA doing this when several companies are doing a better job with autonomous vehicles?"

I will be interested to see the reports on today's Duval DOGE meeting with JTA. I hope a transcript will be made available.

[urban_]

From the Action News Jax article
https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/local/jta-employees-paid-ride-navi-shuttle-inflating-ridership-taxpayers-dime/KCMNOIRLQ5B6HGQQIAZK45ZSTA/

In that email, JTA admits the average ridership is only about 89 people a day, far fewer than the 250- 300 they promised when pitching the project and something FDOT engineers called into question years ago.
The email does say JTA hopes to hit that target number by 2035. Duval DOGE takes on the NAVI and JTA at its meeting Tuesday to answer the list of 17 questions Diamond presented for them to defend the project.

Am I reading this right? Are they saying, out loud, that they don't project NAVI to have at least 250-300 riders per day for the next ten years? I feel crazy even talking about this thing! GET RID OF IT!

[Charles Hunter]

But wait, there's more on the ridership projections.
From JTA's answer Question 14 - To date, what is the actual ridership observed?

b.   We anticipate continued ridership growth as development progresses throughout Downtown Jacksonville, and we remain confident in our original projection of 280 daily passengers by 2035 along the BSIC [Bay Street Innovation Corridor] contingent upon the build out of the full system and the realization of the significant development happening in Downtown Jacksonville.

They use similar language as part of their answer to Question 15 - If actual ridership falls short of projections, what is the threshold for scaling back or canceling phases?

If I am reading that right, the U2C along Bay Street (Phase 1) will not reach 280 per day, UNTIL and UNLESS, the Skyway Conversion (Phase 2), and the Neighborhood Extension (Phase 3) are completed and in operation AND "the realization of the significant development happening in Downtown Jacksonville." No mention in the JTA letter to the Council of what the "significant development ... in Downtown Jacksonville" includes. Those details should be in the TCAR-2 study referenced in the letter.

Remember, the never-achieved ridership, mid-1970s projections for the original Skyway (then, the People Mover) were based on projections of continued office, commercial, and population growth in downtown Jacksonville. Sadly for the Skyway, suburban office parks and shopping centers happened in the late 1970s.

Phase 2 - the Skyway Conversion - is projected to cost $240 million in capital, and the capital cost for Phase 3 - Neighborhood Extensions - is $95 million. Operating and maintenance costs for the full system are $15 - $19 million per year.

[thelakelander]

Pull the plug. Can you imagine the heat the Skyway would get if it had projections of less than 300 riders a day......10 YEARS FROM NOW?!

Up until this U2C/NAVI nonsense, the Skyway was moving 5,000 a day.

[thelakelander]

Say it ain't so....this trainwreck is so predictable...

Software issue could put the brakes on self-driving function of NAVI shuttles for half a year

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — JTA's autonomous NAVI shuttle may not be autonomous for much longer... Or at least temporarily.

Just before JTA CEO Nat Ford took to the podium to take questions from the Duval DOGE Special Committee about the agency's U2C project and its autonomous NAVI shuttle system, JTA announced that the software that makes those shuttles self-driving could soon be discontinued.

Balfour Beatty Construction LLC, the primary contractor for the NAVI shuttle, informed JTA that its software subcontractor, Oxa, is pulling out of the passenger transport business and will cut off service at the end of the year.

https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/local/software-issue-could-put-brakes-self-driving-function-navi-shuttles-half-year/4FIE3DN5CRFB7BXD5YKC5EWW5A/

[Ken_FSU]

Let's do some math, shall we.

An estimated 280 riders a day, assuming a full build out (LOL).

That would equal 1,400 riders a week, and 72,800 a year (LOL).

With annual operating costs of $18 to $20 million, that would be approximately $275 PER RIDE in public expense.

Shut her down.

[jaxlongtimer]

But wait, there's more on the ridership projections.
From JTA's answer Question 14 - To date, what is the actual ridership observed?

b.   We anticipate continued ridership growth as development progresses throughout Downtown Jacksonville, and we remain confident in our original projection of 280 daily passengers by 2035 along the BSIC [Bay Street Innovation Corridor] contingent upon the build out of the full system and the realization of the significant development happening in Downtown Jacksonville.

They use similar language as part of their answer to Question 15 - If actual ridership falls short of projections, what is the threshold for scaling back or canceling phases?

If I am reading that right, the U2C along Bay Street (Phase 1) will not reach 280 per day, UNTIL and UNLESS, the Skyway Conversion (Phase 2), and the Neighborhood Extension (Phase 3) are completed and in operation AND "the realization of the significant development happening in Downtown Jacksonville." No mention in the JTA letter to the Council of what the "significant development ... in Downtown Jacksonville" includes. Those details should be in the TCAR-2 study referenced in the letter.

Remember, the never-achieved ridership, mid-1970s projections for the original Skyway (then, the People Mover) were based on projections of continued office, commercial, and population growth in downtown Jacksonville. Sadly for the Skyway, suburban office parks and shopping centers happened in the late 1970s.

Phase 2 - the Skyway Conversion - is projected to cost $240 million in capital, and the capital cost for Phase 3 - Neighborhood Extensions - is $95 million. Operating and maintenance costs for the full system are $15 - $19 million per year.

Charles, to your point, this is a total deja vu of the Skyway's justification... prostituting consultants deliberately inflating projections based on unrealistic assumptions and development dreams along with non-questioning JTA board members and City officials.  This time, it is even more obvious to any casual observer what a joke this project really is so it's more galling that it has been moving forward.

It is a fix that enriches JTA management, contractors and consultants and does nothing for anyone else.  That we are reliving this again is scandalous and unbelievable.  It typifies Jax leadership that just repeats mistakes, bad decisions and lazy due diligence, never learning or shedding the ultimate driver, the influence of special interests.

As I have said repeatedly, aside from the blight on Downtown and wasted millions of taxpayer dollars, the blackeye this gives "mass transit" (which, technically this fails to do) among the citizenry will make the case for truly worthwhile mass transit projects all the more difficult to get support for.   If all the funding and effort going into U2C went into streetcar, more robust bus service or commuter or intercity rail projects, we would be so much further along in addressing our building traffic congestion.

Malfeasance and gross incompetence on full display, rising to the level of JEA's recent scandal.  Call in the inspector generals, auditors and prosecutors and follow the money.

[thelakelander]

Charles, to your point, this is a total deja vu of the Skyway's justification...

It's way worse!!! You can't justify spending this type of money on any public system that can only generate less than 300 riders a day.......a decade from now. This is serious negligence of local public funds. As raggedy as the Skyway is now, it still averages 1,100 a day.

[Jones518]

If the city could just agree to make a skyway stop in Brooklyn next to the shoppes and extend the skyway to the stadium district... that would increase ridership immensely!!  Ughhh

[fsu813]

Charles, to your point, this is a total deja vu of the Skyway's justification...

It's way worse!!! You can't justify spending this type of money on any public system that can only generate less than 300 riders a day.......a decade from now. This is serious negligence of local public funds. As raggedy as the Skyway is now, it still averages 1,100 a day.

As of 2023, their plans included licensing or selling their technology/experience to other municipalities and private companies who want to do something similar. So, it wasn't just about riders, but about developing something new and valuable they could profit from. Per Bernard Schmidt, who resigned later that year.

[Charles Hunter]

Now that the sun is setting earlier, do they bring the NAVI vans into the garage earlier? Or do they just go into full Human Mode in the evening? Since they will be in Full Human Mode all day after the first of the year, I guess it's good practice.

[jaxlongtimer]

Charles, to your point, this is a total deja vu of the Skyway's justification...

It's way worse!!! You can't justify spending this type of money on any public system that can only generate less than 300 riders a day.......a decade from now. This is serious negligence of local public funds. As raggedy as the Skyway is now, it still averages 1,100 a day.

Is the Skyway still free?  If so, it was supposed to get 10,000 paying riders/day within a few years of completion nearly 30 years ago.  Working back from the Skyway having 30 years to build up "habitual users", the Skyway probably wasn't doing much better than U2C a couple of years out from its startup either. 

No matter, all the traffic estimates then and now are pure fantasy arrived at by giving JTA the numbers it asks for to justify these projects.  The consultants they use are prostitutes that aren't going to bite the hand that feeds them.  To get more realistic numbers, outsiders without a vested interest should hire the consultants doing these estimates and financial analyses. 

JTA has a conflict of interest asking for these projects.  A planning agency detached from the implementation agency should conceive and evaluate the projects and then hand them off to JTA to execute.  Ideally, here that might be the No. Florida TPO.  Why didn't they evaluate U2C given it is a "regional transportation" project?  Whole system here is broken just like planning Downtown.

[Jones518]

The whole U2C project just stinks badly....more of city council and the mayor need to get on board with calling it out. It's poo poo at best! Someone said it on one of these threads before, mayor Deegan could win over some republicans for this next election if she called U2C out for what it really is.. and Nat Ford needs to go... streetcars and light rail worked decades ago, what makes him think it won't work now...

Ugh