Gateway Jax seeks first-round design approval for Riverfront Plaza tower

[acme54321]

I want to know what's going on with block N8...

[edjax]

Just saw an article in the Daily Record that their incentive request for the Plaza tower will be in excess of $59 million.  Recapture grant of $39.4 and Completion of $20 million

[Ken_FSU]

Just saw an article in the Daily Record that their incentive request for the Plaza tower will be in excess of $59 million.  Recapture grant of $39.4 and Completion of $20 million

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2026/sep/14/gateway-jax-seeks-more-than-59-million-in-incentives-for-rivefront-plaza-high-rise/

All of these articles continue to frame the $20 million completion grant as coming from the general fund and as being potentially contentious with City Council. This simply isn't true. The land swap with Gateway Jax clearly stated that a completion grant would be capped at $20 million and would come from the DIA's Northbank TIF. This was all clearly laid out before the Council already when they approved the land swap 17-1. The time to complain about this specific grant would have been when the land swap was being litigated. 

[Aristocles]

Just watched it. Moll's an excellent speaker! So articulate. Now I see how he can get the lenders behind him. The most important thing he said was "when you see buildings and development, there's data behind it. It has to be feasible based on the data." Also he said that, if it wasn't for his experience sizing up development potential, maybe he wouldn't have seen the opportunity in what looks like a down at the heels part of downtown. Given what I heard I'm really confident his development will be successful and transformative.

Nothing against Moll, his team or Gateway.  I wish them the very best.  So far, so good.  But, it's not surprising developers are the ultimate optimists and great at selling that optimism to others.  They have to be as they are natural risk takers and need to bring along lenders, outside investors, etc. that are more cautious. Only the passage of time will tell if the optimism is warranted.

Many major developments in NE Florida have failed before finding success:  Queens Harbor, Sawgrass, Julington Creek, Amelia Island Plantation, Adams Mark (now Hyatt), Berkman, etc.  Add any number of shopping centers, office buildings, apartments, condos, etc.  All of them had financing or investors convinced by the "data" that big successes were just around the corner.  Nocatee stands out for not failing but the Davis's deep pockets likely floated it through slow times.

I hear you and believe me, if you're a real estate developer you must be hearing the Wallflowers song Sixth Avenue Heartache where Jakob Dylan sings "I've got my fingers crossed/on a shooting star". If you aren't, then you're probably not cut out for that line of work. A tremendously risky job resting on lots of luck. But I think there's a difference between good developers who know how to do due diligence and figure out things as best they can, and ones who might still sound optimistic but don't know what they're doing all that well, do shoddy work, and get governments to bail them out. Nobody can predict the future and developments can fail for completely unforeseen reasons. I think because the location is so good that Gateway Jax is less likely to fail than many developments in locations further away from the center of the city. But more than any of that, I hear in Moll a guy who understands things in context and, because of that, knows extremely well what he's doing. That clearly puts him into the good category. He's one of the best-spoken developers I've ever heard and I've worked with developers for 30 years. If anyone can get this right, I'm convinced he can. But don't take my word for it - look at the track record. The DC area and downtown Tampa.   

[LadyBugJax]

Did you see the condos start at $3.5 million, $1400 sq feet?  Gateway has 21 months to start construction when they will have to have presold 50% of the units at these prices. Or, back to the drawing board, buy back the property and then what? If it goes forward, 2 years for construction, so 2030? The IRR is only 7% even with $20 million in cash and substantial tax breaks. The contribution to the park is only $30,000, pretty different than the $500k they said last year. The bed taxes will go into an economic development pot to be decided later date. The DIA asked a lot of good questions, but it was unanimous vote in the end..."we can't turn back now"?

[CityLife]

Is the IRR 7% before the $59 million in incentives or after?

That's barely more than a 10 year bond yield, which is currently 4.95%. The average rate of return for the S&P500 is 11-12%. Typically with a speculative real estate project, you would expect something in the 15-20% range because investors are taking on risk. I've invested in a couple of real estate projects lately (one in Jax) and both are in the 15-20% IRR range. It's possible that Gateway and it's investors are viewing the IRR across the entire scope of their projects though, so they may only take a 7% return on this, knowing that it will increase the value of their other projects.

The bigger question though, is can the DT Jax market sell 51 condos priced $3.5 million or higher? Apparently Four Seasons has only sold 7 of 26 units with a starting point of $4.7 million. That's a more desirable project, and I believe at least 3 of the 7 units are penthouses bought by the Khan family.

I know that this will be a new to market concept and nicer than anything around (excluding Four Seasons), but there really is not a luxury condo market in the city (not counting the Beaches). There has only been one high rise condo unit sold for more than $2 million in Jax in the past 2 years and that was a 5,500 sf foot double unit at Villariva. That unit only sold for $696 per SF. There were about 10 other high rise condo sales that were all in the $400-$600 per SF.

For $3.2 million, there are currently two houses for sale (4k and 5k sf) on the river in Ortega with pools and docks. There's a house on River Road for $2.5 (that does need some work). There's a decent house on the river in Avondale for $2.8 million. I know some people will want to live downtown in a highly amenitized building, but the single family market in San Marco, Riverside/Avondale, and Ortega will likely also compete with this project.

The good news is that like with most big condo projects Gateway has to pre-sell 50% to even start construction. So they will at least be able to test the market before breaking ground. I'm skeptical, but hope to be proven wrong.

[CityLife]

^Also, speaking of the Beaches. The Azure, Related Group's luxury condo in Jax Beach was finished in 2024. The top floor penthouses at Azure only sold for $1,230 and $1,130 per square foot. The lower floors ranged between $780 a square foot and $1,050 per square foot.

I think the Gateway team must be banking on the Tampa Edition project as their best comp. It's similarly built on top of a luxury hotel. This enables an overall higher dollar per square foot, because your lowest unit will still be well above street level, getting premium views and a higher sales point. Recent resales at the Tampa Edition are around $1,500 to $1700, but there are also only 38 units there, and it's a stronger market in a better location.

Will be interesting to see how presales go.

[jaxlongtimer]

Apparently Four Seasons has only sold 7 of 26 units with a starting point of $4.7 million.

At least 3 or 4 of those sales were to Shad Khan and his kids/family so not really the "market."  I would guess the balance are to others personally associated with Khan, not "off the street."

I know some Azure buyers and the price per square foot at closing could change dramatically based on the customization and finishes they upgraded to.  So the Azure closing prices per square foot may be higher than indicated for what the developer was originally selling at.

Bottom line:  I would say there likely have been no credible sales at this level in Jax.

[Ned Plimpton]

For $3.2 million, there are currently two houses for sale (4k and 5k sf) on the river in Ortega with pools and docks. There's a house on River Road for $2.5 (that does need some work). There's a decent house on the river in Avondale for $2.8 million. I know some people will want to live downtown in a highly amenitized building, but the single family market in San Marco, Riverside/Avondale, and Ortega will likely also compete with this project.

One challenge in Jacksonville is that branded residences are still a relatively new product type for many local buyers. It's common for someone to compare an 8,000 SF home to a 3,500 SF condo and focus primarily on the difference in size, without necessarily considering the services, amenities, management, and lifestyle components that are part of the valuation. As with most emerging product types, there is an education component as buyers become more familiar with how branded residences are positioned in other luxury markets.

As for Azure, I've heard from several people that the quality of construction did not fully meet their expectations given the price point. I've seen a few instances of owners selling shortly after delivery with limited appreciation, but I don't know the reason they sold.

[Ken_FSU]

Apparently Four Seasons has only sold 7 of 26 units with a starting point of $4.7 million. That's a more desirable project.

Respectfully disagree on this point.

If I had $5 million to drop on a condo - spoiler, I do not - I'd pick the Gateway project over the Four Seasons, ten times out of ten. As we're seeing with Rise Doro, there's just zero demand for living at the sports complex right now, nor is there any public evidence that the city will be adding the amenities in the foreseeable future necessary to make this an attractive 24/7 neighborhood. Throw in what is certain to be years of construction and noise disruption, I cannot imagine why anyone would choose to live at the Shipyards right now.

Even though the Four Seasons name is stronger, feels like Laura Street, right on the St. Johns River, looking down at Riverfront Plaza, with Friendship Fountain/the Southbank across the river and the broader Northbank riverwalk at your doorstep is about the most desirable real estate in downtown Jacksonville. Feels like a much easier sell to an empty nester, or a Northeastern transplant, or a business exec looking for a trophy than a Four Seasons surrounded by concrete parking lots.

For both buildings, it's kind of fascinating to me that the luxury housing is preceding the supporting development. You've gotta think that both the Four Seasons condos and the Riverfront Plaza residential is an easier sell at those price points if the amenities are already in place and successful.

[simms3]

Things I'm hearing in the comments -

I know that this will be a new to market concept and nicer than anything around (excluding Four Seasons), but there really is not a luxury condo market in the city (not counting the Beaches). There has only been one high rise condo unit sold for more than $2 million in Jax in the past 2 years and that was a 5,500 sf foot double unit at Villariva. That unit only sold for $696 per SF. There were about 10 other high rise condo sales that were all in the $400-$600 per SF.

The bigger question though, is can the DT Jax market sell 51 condos priced $3.5 million or higher? Apparently Four Seasons has only sold 7 of 26 units with a starting point of $4.7 million.

Recent resales at the Tampa Edition are around $1,500 to $1700, but there are also only 38 units there, and it's a stronger market in a better location.

Bottom line:  I would say there likely have been no credible sales at this level in Jax

For both buildings, it's kind of fascinating to me that the luxury housing is preceding the supporting development. You've gotta think that both the Four Seasons condos and the Riverfront Plaza residential is an easier sell at those price points if the amenities are already in place and successful.

I think we are starting to get somewhere!  At some point the city, the DIA, civic leaders, etc etc are going to have to realize that it all boils down to jobs.  Gotta get the economic engine going!

Most larger and similarly-sized cities experimented with a bit of blandness, too, in high-rise living before they moved up to luxury/branded towers.  Our world is a bit backwards when apparently the only high rise you can do is Four Seasons quality, but it should not need to be so!

Gateway has not yet found financing for their other tower (block N4 I think?), that I am aware of.  Riverfront is better real estate, but to everyone's point - doing the 5 star thing before you have really anything else to speak of to build upon does not make as much sense.

For the hotel component - when you get Merrydelle and Four Seasons open, what's to justify an EDITION or St. Regis on top of it?  What's drawing those people downtown?

A downtown still needs to be a place of jobs and commerce.  Can't neglect that part of it.  In extremely limited and rare conditions can it just rely on luxury residents and tourism, but we are so far from that and I don't see that really happening "on its own" like it did in St. Petersburg.

I think the City really needs to have a come to Jesus and compare the level of incentives we levy at individual apartment buildings and unjustified 5-star resorts to what would be needed to lure corporations in targeted industries to Jacksonville, specifically downtown.  We need 3 FIS's headquartered in a walkable cluster downtown to generate a powerhouse economic "force" that employs many thousands of highly paid young professionals.  Lots of other things will fall into place from that.

Instead we have hollowed out office buildings and restaurants struggling to even just provide lunch.  These same restaurants would need several large apartment buildings with all WFH residents around them to succeed without office - and we need to subsidize each and every apartment building.  A more cost effective and "sound" way in my opinion would be to incentivize business to come [back] to Jax, fill those towers each with thousands of employees.

[Zac T]

The Vandeveer should provide a glimpse at what the Northbank market can support for rentals. Studios and 1 beds starting at $3.15/sqft and 2 beds at $2.93/sqft. This is far above anything else on the market right now and this is still an "emerging" part of Downtown just a couple blocks removed from a homeless shelter. I wish them the best but it's definitely ambitious pricing. Owning all of the surrounding area and building your own ecosystem certainly helps them play the long game

https://www.vandeveerjax.com/floorplans

[jaxlongtimer]

The Vandeveer should provide a glimpse at what the Northbank market can support for rentals. Studios and 1 beds starting at $3.15/sqft and 2 beds at $2.93/sqft. This is far above anything else on the market right now and this is still an "emerging" part of Downtown just a couple blocks removed from a homeless shelter. I wish them the best but it's definitely ambitious pricing. Owning all of the surrounding area and building your own ecosystem certainly helps them play the long game

https://www.vandeveerjax.com/floorplans

Looked at the link.  I see at least two targets that may pay up.

1. Single  or roommate sharing professionals that want a walkable environment in the urban core that picks up restaurants, some shopping and the cultural and entertainment venues. I have to say the renderings look sexy.  If the reality approaches those pictures, it would appear to be extra attractive.

2. What I have also noted recently is that there are people living in Nassau, St. Johns and Jax Beaches communities that want an outpost in downtown Jacksonville for weekend, work or event jaunts. As traffic congestion and distances grow, this may become more common. Renting an apartment, especially the studios, that includes parking and walkability, even at these prices, is far cheaper than a hotel room and avoids packing for each trip or the hassle of arranging accommodations and parking every time.  It's a bit of a reversal from when people lived in town and had a second place at the beach.

I don't know if they would agree to it, but maybe also some corporate apartments for companies hosting lots of visits to Jax.  Again, at volume, maybe easier to manage than hotel rooms.

[Ken_FSU]

I know that this will be a new to market concept and nicer than anything around (excluding Four Seasons), but there really is not a luxury condo market in the city (not counting the Beaches). There has only been one high rise condo unit sold for more than $2 million in Jax in the past 2 years and that was a 5,500 sf foot double unit at Villariva. That unit only sold for $696 per SF. There were about 10 other high rise condo sales that were all in the $400-$600 per SF.

The bigger question though, is can the DT Jax market sell 51 condos priced $3.5 million or higher? Apparently Four Seasons has only sold 7 of 26 units with a starting point of $4.7 million.

Recent resales at the Tampa Edition are around $1,500 to $1700, but there are also only 38 units there, and it's a stronger market in a better location.

Bottom line:  I would say there likely have been no credible sales at this level in Jax

For both buildings, it's kind of fascinating to me that the luxury housing is preceding the supporting development. You've gotta think that both the Four Seasons condos and the Riverfront Plaza residential is an easier sell at those price points if the amenities are already in place and successful.

I think we are starting to get somewhere!  At some point the city, the DIA, civic leaders, etc etc are going to have to realize that it all boils down to jobs.  Gotta get the economic engine going!

Most larger and similarly-sized cities experimented with a bit of blandness, too, in high-rise living before they moved up to luxury/branded towers.  Our world is a bit backwards when apparently the only high rise you can do is Four Seasons quality, but it should not need to be so!

Gateway has not yet found financing for their other tower (block N4 I think?), that I am aware of.  Riverfront is better real estate, but to everyone's point - doing the 5 star thing before you have really anything else to speak of to build upon does not make as much sense.

For the hotel component - when you get Merrydelle and Four Seasons open, what's to justify an EDITION or St. Regis on top of it?  What's drawing those people downtown?

A downtown still needs to be a place of jobs and commerce.  Can't neglect that part of it.  In extremely limited and rare conditions can it just rely on luxury residents and tourism, but we are so far from that and I don't see that really happening "on its own" like it did in St. Petersburg.

I think the City really needs to have a come to Jesus and compare the level of incentives we levy at individual apartment buildings and unjustified 5-star resorts to what would be needed to lure corporations in targeted industries to Jacksonville, specifically downtown.  We need 3 FIS's headquartered in a walkable cluster downtown to generate a powerhouse economic "force" that employs many thousands of highly paid young professionals.  Lots of other things will fall into place from that.

Instead we have hollowed out office buildings and restaurants struggling to even just provide lunch.  These same restaurants would need several large apartment buildings with all WFH residents around them to succeed without office - and we need to subsidize each and every apartment building.  A more cost effective and "sound" way in my opinion would be to incentivize business to come [back] to Jax, fill those towers each with thousands of employees.
[/quote]

Fully agree with nearly every word here.

[marcuscnelson]

^ Definitely finding myself coming around to this thinking. The recent economic development focus from the City and Chamber has been on things like "the Small Business Capital of the Southeast" and attracting industrial jobs that are then located way out by Cecil or the airport or the seaports, not on new corporate headquarters.

Hopefully getting the UF campus open and growing is a chance to start thinking about what that kind of attraction needs to look like.