Eastern Pad/Parcel at Riverfront Plaza; What do you think will go there?

[heights unknown]

And yes, construction costs are significantly up, but Gateway is not acting singularly or alone; they have two capital partners with them; remember that. I believe they won't have to go back to the City or anyone else for more capital/funding if the luxury brand demands more height, more hotel keys, bigger condo's, etc. That is all.

They could have 600 partners worth a trillion dollars, but if costs go up without a change to indicate greater returns, the returns will get worse and so the project will need to be re-examined.  Restructuring and potentially increasing floorplate size and reducing floor count is one way to reduce costs.   

Thanks Ned for your response. But think luxury hotel, larger condos, taller tower because of a slender parcel (I know, increased costs), but luxury hotel brands cannot and will not equate or justify fitting into or accepting a 17 story, reduced cost hotel brand IMO on a slender prime riverfront property. Yes, luxury brands normally require height on a pad that size. They will not accept what that rendering iterates which doesn't equate to luxury brand requirements. And, don't discount or minimize those capital partners. Moll/Gate said, in a round about interview 9 months ago, that rendering is just a place holder, and, before then they were not really going for a luxury brand, but later they were talking to luxury brands that wanted 170 hotel rooms or more and 70 condos, and luxury brands don't want small rooms or condos.

[Ned Plimpton]

I am familiar with one luxury hotel brand that is preparing to move into a 10 story building in DT Jax as we speak.

The height of the building is immaterial to a hotel operator as long as the guest room quality, amenities, and BOH facilities are adequate to deliver a guest experience commensurate with brand standards. 

[Ken_FSU]

Question: With office vacancy high, the lack of a market-appropriate convention center, and no sports & entertainment district to attract major events, what's driving demand for all this new hotel inventory downtown? It's been a minute since I worked with Visit Jacksonville, but I think the occupancy rates downtown averaged around 63%. Not terrible, but certainly not screaming for 500+ new rooms. Curious, why do we think developers are so bullish on hotel? Is it UF? The parks? Gateway's development? Who do we expect will be filling the rooms? Business/bleisure travelers? Families? Event attendees?

[Joey Mackey]

Ken, I think you are looking at the general hotel market too broadly. We both know there are currently zero luxury hotels in or near downtown Jax. The Four Seasons will be the first of its kind in the market. The Riverfront Plaza Hotel will probably be a direct competitor in the luxury hotel space. Sound like Ned knows of another direct competitor entering the market. The people filling these rooms are the same people who already come and visit here, but are forced to stay at the Hyatt/Double Tree/Marriot, or stay out by the beach. They would prefer to stay in a nicer hotel.
 

[MakeDTjaxGre@tAgain]

I like it. Certainly doesn't hurt our case as it relates to hosting another Super Bowl. Ideally we need a lot more high end/ luxury brands. Cities no longer bid on the Super Bowl, the league now approach cities about hosting. Simultaneously, we need a sports and entertainment district. I think more luxury rooms coming online and shovels in the ground within the coming years will definitely help our case. Wouldn't be surprised if we get another shot at 2030-2033. 2035 is too long.

@heights unknown mentioned recently in anther thread that Bryan Moll was speaking to Mike on mic 8 months ago about the riverfront plaza parcel, so I went back and reviewed. Ended up going to a really hole running across Matt C's most recent interview in which he said by June the Laura Street Trio should be making some announcements.

Moll and Weinstein have eluded to and made comments about hosting another Super Bowl. I think most of what we're seeing is quietly setting us up for that. Most of the hotels are going through renovations.

Interesting that RiversEdge is on the other side of the spectrum in which the hotel they are in contact with, sees it more risky. Yet we see proposals quite often. Also, we haven't heard not a peep about the Hard Rock hotel since the initial announcement. Likewise, we need more convention space.

[Ken_FSU]

Ken, I think you are looking at the general hotel market too broadly. We both know there are currently zero luxury hotels in or near downtown Jax. The Four Seasons will be the first of its kind in the market. The Riverfront Plaza Hotel will probably be a direct competitor in the luxury hotel space. Sound like Ned knows of another direct competitor entering the market. The people filling these rooms are the same people who already come and visit here, but are forced to stay at the Hyatt/Double Tree/Marriot, or stay out by the beach. They would prefer to stay in a nicer hotel.

Yep, I remember the TDC frustration well when big events would come to town (particularly the proposed RNC during the pandemic) and all the room nights would go to the PVIC and the Ritz in Amelia Island. Definitely a missing piece of the puzzle. Feels like a LOT of rooms though. Like with all downtown investment, I hope the city is thinking through a master plan for programming and activation so that these people get a great experience when they visit and come back again.

RE: Super Bowl. I personally wouldn't want to see us go after it again. At least not anytime soon. We've got a good case study already about what we put into winning it, and what we got back out of it. Jacksonville isn't set up like New Orleans, Las Vegas, Nashville, Miami, etc. to host the game. Which is totally fine. Would rather see us spend all that time, effort, money and planning on building up our downtown and working toward hosting the draft, versus getting dragged through the mud again for not being the typical Super Bowl experience.

[heights unknown]

I am familiar with one luxury hotel brand that is preparing to move into a 10 story building in DT Jax as we speak.

The height of the building is immaterial to a hotel operator as long as the guest room quality, amenities, and BOH facilities are adequate to deliver a guest experience commensurate with brand standards. 

IMO depends on where that 10 story building is. In all due respect, I'll bet it is not on the River, next to the new Park on the River on prime slender luxury type real estate, pad or parcel. Probably, that luxury brand wants that type of building to work out of that is not on the type of pad/parcel that is on the River. I get it, but for the type of pad/parcel that the hotel/condos will sit on (a slender parcel on the River) we're probably talking a building with height and more hotel keys and roomy condos. Moll stated he was, at the time, talking to A luxury hotel brand that wanted 170 keys (or so) and 60 to 70 condos. Being that he added "or so" after the number of keys tells me that its possible that the number of rooms/keys could increase. For a prime pad/parcel on the Riverfront, 17 stories or 10 stories is not enough and usually luxury brands will want much more especially on the type of pad, parcel or real estate on the river next to the park. Lastly, keep in mind the size of that parcel; it is slender/small. When a piece of real estate is that slender/small, more verticality comes into play.

[MakeDTjaxGre@tAgain]

Ken, I think we're definitely better positioned to be hosting the draft and could potentially set a higher record than Pittsburgh. We're in the center of 3 franchises(Bucs, Mia, Atl) within driving distance that no other team in the NFL is. Potentially we can draw 1.2M over 3 days.

We lack sufficient convention space and public transportation. The convention center is on the other end of downtown - far from the stadium. Not connected to any hotels. Are they going to use Daily's Place flex field - that could be an temp option? One of the reasons people bragged about Detroit, plus they've being revitalizing as well and building infrastructure. This is what will hinder us from being an elite draft city in my opinion.

Outside of the draft area, we have continued activation along the waterfront that can draw in visitors, but riverfront restaurants need to go live, sports and entertainment district is a must, as well as the the nightlife is not quite there yet - granted I went to Decca this past weekend and I had to park 5 blocks away. It was a packed house for Latin night 2 - 3 other clubs on this magnitude within the same area can bolster this area. I love Kickers, but it's too far.

Lastly, the storefronts are so empty in the core. People visiting will need places to eat and drink, sit down and take a load of and experience the city outside of the draft areas. We're not quite there yet in this aspect. With all this falling into place, we could be on the rotation to host multiple years like done cities do with the SB.

[Zac T]

I am familiar with one luxury hotel brand that is preparing to move into a 10 story building in DT Jax as we speak.

The height of the building is immaterial to a hotel operator as long as the guest room quality, amenities, and BOH facilities are adequate to deliver a guest experience commensurate with brand standards. 

IMO depends on where that 10 story building is. In all due respect, I'll bet it is not on the River, next to the new Park on the River on prime slender luxury type real estate, pad or parcel. Probably, that luxury brand wants that type of building to work out of that is not on the type of pad/parcel that is on the River. I get it, but for the type of pad/parcel that the hotel/condos will sit on (a slender parcel on the River) we're probably talking a building with height and more hotel keys and roomy condos. Moll stated he was, at the time, talking to A luxury hotel brand that wanted 170 keys (or so) and 60 to 70 condos. Being that he added "or so" after the number of keys tells me that its possible that the number of rooms/keys could increase. For a prime pad/parcel on the Riverfront, 17 stories or 10 stories is not enough and usually luxury brands will want much more especially on the type of pad, parcel or real estate on the river next to the park.

I am pretty sure Ned is referencing the Four Seasons which is 10 stories, on the river, includes residences, and will open next year. Also, the approximations Bryan Moll is using is likely due to previous statements he has made in discussions with the city that the number of hotel rooms will range between 130-170 and number of residences will range between 50-150. This all depends on who the operator will be, construction costs, the overall market, etc. During initital land swap talks, he mentioned that the rendering was a placeholder to show what a tower could look like on that property but that they had not gotten deep into the design phase.

Gateway has been very consistent in their messaging since plans first surfaced last year. Nothing that he has said in that video or elsewhere has given any indication that they've changed course and are planning anything incredibly tall but that they are still working out specifics and design. Your best bet for something 400+ ft is Fleet Landing and the empty YMCA lot, Ford on Bay, or the DCPS property

[heights unknown]

I am familiar with one luxury hotel brand that is preparing to move into a 10 story building in DT Jax as we speak.

The height of the building is immaterial to a hotel operator as long as the guest room quality, amenities, and BOH facilities are adequate to deliver a guest experience commensurate with brand standards. 

IMO depends on where that 10 story building is. In all due respect, I'll bet it is not on the River, next to the new Park on the River on prime slender luxury type real estate, pad or parcel. Probably, that luxury brand wants that type of building to work out of that is not on the type of pad/parcel that is on the River. I get it, but for the type of pad/parcel that the hotel/condos will sit on (a slender parcel on the River) we're probably talking a building with height and more hotel keys and roomy condos. Moll stated he was, at the time, talking to A luxury hotel brand that wanted 170 keys (or so) and 60 to 70 condos. Being that he added "or so" after the number of keys tells me that its possible that the number of rooms/keys could increase. For a prime pad/parcel on the Riverfront, 17 stories or 10 stories is not enough and usually luxury brands will want much more especially on the type of pad, parcel or real estate on the river next to the park.

I am pretty sure Ned is referencing the Four Seasons which is 10 stories, on the river, includes residences, and will open next year. Also, the approximations Bryan Moll is using is likely due to previous statements he has made in discussions with the city that the number of hotel rooms will range between 130-170 and number of residences will range between 50-150. This all depends on who the operator will be, construction costs, the overall market, etc. During initital land swap talks, he mentioned that the rendering was a placeholder to show what a tower could look like on that property but that they had not gotten deep into the design phase.

Gateway has been very consistent in their messaging since plans first surfaced last year. Nothing that he has said in that video or elsewhere has given any indication that they've changed course and are planning anything incredibly tall but that they are still working out specifics and design. Your best bet for something 400+ ft is Fleet Landing and the empty YMCA lot, Ford on Bay, or the DCPS property

Awesome stuff; thanks!

[CityLife]

Regarding the Super Bowl. Not even worth talking about for years, imo.

They will be announcing Nashville as Super Bowl host in 2030 soon. There is some media already reporting it, but someone I know has heard it from the Lt. Governor directly. That means 2033 (as mentioned earlier) would be announced in roughly 2029. If every single project in the pipeline is built and becomes wildly successful, there still will not be enough proof of concept at that time. The late 2030's is probably the earliest it could even happen, and that is still probably a long shot.

I agree with Ken that going all in on the draft makes sense. I think Jax could be wildly successful in hosting it. There would be enough local support from just the Jax metro to draw a huge crowd, and you would also pull football fans in from all over the state/south and likely get a decent amount of out of state fans flying in as part of a Florida trip.

That's a logical next step to make before even throwing out the words Super Bowl.

[Joey Mackey]

Getting off topic, but I also agree with Ken that we should go hard on hosting the Draft before a Super Bowl. Judging by Pittsburgh's setup this last week, we can just set up a stage in Lot J and it should work.

[tufsu1]

Ken, I think we're definitely better positioned to be hosting the draft and could potentially set a higher record than Pittsburgh. We're in the center of 3 franchises(Bucs, Mia, Atl) within driving distance that no other team in the NFL is. Potentially we can draw 1.2M over 3 days.

Huh? Maybe take a look at the NFL teams within 5 hours drive from Pittsburgh - pretty sure you will get at least 7

[MakeDTjaxGre@tAgain]

^ i retract my previous statement. We're not even top 10 haha.

[heights unknown]

Here is the current status of the east pad at the Riverfront Plaza Park, along with, (based on what's in public filing), the likely size, etc. of the new Tower. Again, I warn all of you, the 17 story PLACE HOLDER is gone; the cost (estimate) of this new tower has shot up to over 245M dollars. A 17 story tower with small foot plates and prints will never cost that much; I am bruting for punishment (I know it's coming) and I can take it; and I'm well aware of construction costs, the current economy/economic factors, etc. But just get your magnifying glass out and look at these facts; thanks:

Right now, the east pad, Riverfront Plaza, owned by Gateway Jax is in the pre‑development phase, which includes:

Architectural design work, Cost modeling, Brand negotiations (hotel flag announcement expected "in the next few months"), DIA incentive structuring, Legal review of the redevelopment agreement, coordination with the Riverfront Plaza park construction;

No vertical construction can begin until the redevelopment agreement is approved — currently targeted for late 2026.

Summary Table - Land swap between Gateway and the City was completed on Dec 2025. Concept design is underway. The Architect is COOKFOX out of New York City I believe. The program is for 160 hotel keys and 60 condos minimum; it could be increased to much more as Bryan Moll in an August 2025 interview with Mike on Mic stated 160 - 170 keys and 60 - 70 condos on the slender pad/parcel. Estimated cost is $240M. Incentive review (DIA) will happen summer of 2026. Redevelopment agreement - Fall 2026. Final approvals by the End of 2026. Construction start (tentative) Q4 2027.

Bottom line - The DIA and the City of Jacksonville are actively moving the east pad forward. The project is in the design and pre‑approval phase, with a clear timeline toward incentives, agreements, and construction. Nothing is stalled — the process is unfolding exactly as DIA's official schedule outlines.

What COOKFOX's design approach suggests about height:

COOKFOX (Architect for this project) is not a "mid‑rise" architect. Their portfolio is dominated by: 1) slender towers, 2) biophilic vertical massing, 3) mixed‑use high‑rise structures, 4) luxury hotel + condo stacks, 5) tall, elegant, narrow buildings on constrained sites, 6) They specialize in verticality on tight parcels — exactly what the east pad requires.

When DIA selected COOKFOX, they weren't choosing a firm known for 15‑story boxes. They chose a firm known for: 1) 30–50 story mixed‑use towers, 2) narrow floor plates, 3) luxury hotel integration, 4) high‑end residential above hospitality.

Their involvement alone signals a taller, more vertical design than the placeholder.

How the program size compares to the original 17‑story concept:

The original placeholder rendering assumed: 1) ~125 hotel rooms, 2)
~20–30 condos, 3) a much smaller footprint, 4) a generic mid‑rise massing.

The current program (from Moll's mid to late 2025 interview and DIA documents) is: 1) 160–170 hotel keys, 2) 60–70 condos, 3) retail, 4) structured parking, 5) luxury brand requirements, 6) a slender riverfront pad, 7) This is 2.5× the program of the original concept.

A 17‑story building cannot physically accommodate:

1) 170 hotel rooms, 2) 70 condos, 3) amenities, 4) back‑of‑house
mechanical, 5) parking, 6) luxury brand spacing standards.

The program itself forces height (being on a slender pad and pushed by a 5 star luxury brand...again, on a slender pad)

What the hotel brand requirements imply for massing:

Luxury hotel brands (Four Seasons, Aman, Rosewood, Auberge, etc.) require: 1) larger room sizes, 2) higher ceilings, 3) more amenity floors, 4) separate circulation for hotel vs. condo, 5) dedicated mechanical floors, 6) rooftop or upper‑level amenities, 7) column spacing that reduces floor efficiency (and especially on a slender pad)

This means: 1) fewer rooms per floor, 2) more floors required, 3)
vertical stacking.

Luxury brands do not fit into squat, small mid‑rise buildings on narrow parcels.

This is why Moll said the brand wanted 170 keys "or so" (back in the mid 2025 interview with Mike on mic) — that "or so" is a tell that the brand may push for even more.

Now the big question: Does the $240M price tag imply a 17‑story tower or a taller, more vertical design?

A 17‑story building does NOT cost $240 million.
Not in Jacksonville.
Not on that parcel.
Not with that program.
Not with those brands.

Typical cost ranges: Mid‑rise (15–20 stories) mixed‑use:
$120M–$160M

High‑rise (30–45 stories) mixed‑use luxury: $220M–$350M; and remember, on a small/constrained prime riverfront pad.

The $240M figure places this project squarely in the high‑rise category.

This number alone tells you: 1) the building is larger, the building is more complex, the building is more vertical, the building is not the old 17‑story placeholder (not even close to it),

And...you don't spend $240M to build a mid‑rise.

You spend $240M to build a signature tower.

So what does the $240M number actually imply? It implies:

✔ A new design
✔ A larger program
✔ A taller tower
✔ A vertical massing strategy
✔ A luxury brand with high standards
✔ A slender footprint requiring height
✔ A project far beyond the placeholder rendering

The $240M+ tower is not and will not be a 17‑story building; even if it turns out to be 25 to 30 stories, it will not be what the initial concept and rendering conveyed and showed.

This new tower will possibly be a 30–40+ story mixed‑use tower in terms of cost, program, and parcel constraints, or even taller.

The $240M price tag is the biggest clue we've seen yet.

It tells you: The placeholder is dead, the program has grown, whatever brand is chosen they have or will possibly demand more.

The parcel forces verticality.

COOKFOX is designing a tower, not a mid‑rise.

The DIA is preparing incentives for a major project.

Everything points to a significantly taller, more vertical, more ambitious tower than the original concept.

Lastly, accept the fact (if you have not) that downtown Jax is moving and moving hard). Quit thinking small from this day on and think "BIG JAX." Get ready for something special, even if it's only 10 to 12 stories taller and/or bigger than the original rendering which was only a "placard" or place holder, but IMO I believe it will be something Jax has not seen in a few decades. That is all.