JTA meetings on the future of the Skyway

[marcuscnelson]

Looking at the new options now, I think 3, 5, and probably 4 are clearly unacceptable. It's a waste of good infrastructure to put the AVs up there, and trying to build a trail with how small the Skyway ROW is compared to New York or Philadelphia and the needs at street level is throwing good money after bad. Option 4 isn't good either, but if we are really completely wedded to autonomous shuttles over any other option for whatever reason, might as well go that way with it and spend the difference on new surface lanes for those, the Emerald Trail, and other transit.

Between Options 1 and 2, I think it would be wiser to pick a longer-term strategy of compatibility with Miami or other standard-ish APM systems, but if speed is really of the essence then Option 1 for now with plans for a larger reworking later on might also work, assuming vendors are willing and able to produce something.

Per the survey, I think my ranking would be:

• Alternative 2: New Automated People Mover (APM) Trains
• Alternative 1: Retrofit the Existing Cars
• No Build
• Alternative 4: Remove Skyway Structure and Operate Autonomous Vehicles on Existing Streets
• Alternative 5: Repurpose Skyway as a Multiuse Trail and Operate Autonomous Vehicles on Existing Streets
• Alternative 3: Convert Track and System to Autonomous Vehicles (AVs)

[MakeDTjaxGre@tAgain]

For me option 2 is a no brainer. I'm no engineer, but just out of curiosity. Can the skyway be converted to a elevated light rail track? They will have to make major adjustments according to the survey for a new APM because of weight and APM are hard to come by very few companies make them. So in another 10/15 years we'll be back to square 1 or here trying to come up with a solution. Relieving the skyway with NAVI is just flat out irresponsible. Its unproven technology and what it Holon goes under and closes shop, then who's going to supply the parts? We're back here again to the survey. At least with LRT they are commonly used and there's more manufactures.

[jaxlongtimer]

Out of curiosity, what are the weight bearing limits of the Skyway track?  Would that limit what can ride on it? 

Same, regarding continued stressing from anything running more frequently or at higher speeds. 

What do engineers have to say about repurposing the structure for anything going forward and what the remaining life of the structure would be?  Concrete doesn't last forever, just look at the cracks/wear/replacement lives of interstates, bridges, sidewalks, and even airport runways.  There is also any settling over time.

Seems an evaluation for the above would be in order before wasting a lot of time on what's next.  Any updated engineering studies out there?

[thelakelander]

^ I Know that weight answer. We have all the old plans and data in our archives. I'll have to look it up later. I look forward to learning more in person next week. However, of whats been shared here, here's my opinion of the options.

1. Repair of existing cars is maintenance of the system. This should be required, not a future option. There's still a limited self life with this option, so it should be combined with #2.

2. If we're going to sink a few hundred million into this, Option 2 is the only one that makes sense. You get decades of service, the higher capacity to accommodate future growth and expansion. Of the options, its the only viable long term mass transit solution on the table.

3. This option is not practical. Why spend possibly just as much as option 2 for a lower capacity, high risk and unproven personal transit option. This is apples to oranges, in terms of option 2 being real mass transit and option 3 replacing dedicated transit with a lesser first/last mile alternative.

4. We already have vans on the ground that no one is using. This isn't a viable option. We have proof of concept of its expense and attraction to ridership.

5. This option is misleading. The rendering as illustrated is twice the width of the actual Skyway infrastructure. All the dead load of weight from the landscaping would result in structural failure. Making it an elevated sidewalk would be just as expensive or more as Option 2 and serve significantly less people.

[Ken_FSU]

In Midtown Atlanta for some meetings tonight. Waymo AVs everywhere, providing more advanced, more flexible, lower cost service than the U2C, without a 30-year, $400 million drag on the local gas tax. There is a literal private sector solution already on the streets. What are we even doing at JTA?

There are also food delivery robots cruising up and down the sidewalks.

[jcjohnpaint]

Another issue with the elevated walkway is taking away people that we want walking at street level and putting them on an elevated trail. Just put mixed used paths on the ground. This is not comparable to ny bc you desire to walk the high line to escape the hustle and bustle. We don't have this kind of urban situation here. Nothing close to it.

[copperfiend]

Another issue with the elevated walkway is taking away people that we want walking at street level and putting them on an elevated trail. Just put mixed used paths on the ground. This is not comparable to ny bc you desire to walk the high line to escape the hustle and bustle. We don't have this kind of urban situation here. Nothing close to it.

Agree. The High Line is one of my favorite things to see in NY. Part of the appeal is what you mentioned. There is also have an army of volunteers to tend to it, including docents who give tours. The High Line also interacts with adjacent buildings like the Whitney. And tells stories about the history of the Meatpacking District and Chelsea.

[CityLife]

Option 6. Before committing to any of the proposed alternatives, imo Jax should consider waiting a few more years to see how the AI and autonomous vehicle revolution evolves.

We are in the middle of one of the most significant technological transformations since the Industrial Revolution. Artificial intelligence and autonomous systems are improving at an extraordinary pace. What seems cutting-edge today may be outdated or far more affordable, efficient, and capable in just a short time.

For those who haven't seen it, I highly recommend reading this Twitter/X post (85M+ views) that provides a great overview of how rapidly AI is accelerating:
https://x.com/mattshumer_/status/2021256989876109403

While organizations like Gateway Jax, UF, and others understandably want momentum and visible progress, Jax's history provides a cautionary lesson. The original Skyway and U2C show the risks of locking into expensive infrastructure during the early stages of evolving technology. If Jacksonville rushes a decision now, it risks saddling taxpayers with another long-term financial and operational burden just as better, more flexible solutions emerge.

A short-term pause to evaluate how AI and autonomous systems evolve could prevent another long-term mistake.

[thelakelander]

The High Line is also a former frieght railroad corridor. Built to support the weight of loaded box cars, tank cars, steam locomotives, etc. Different structure altogether.

When we propose this type of stuff without considering feasibility and cost, etc. it simply confuses the public and wastes time. More than a decade ago, the public feedback was to fix up and expand the Skyway, not turn it into a system of autonomous human driven camper vans or being the first at experiementing with a risky form of technology. Lets get back to the basic purpose and move forward.

[Jax_Developer]

Option 6. Before committing to any of the proposed alternatives, imo Jax should consider waiting a few more years to see how the AI and autonomous vehicle revolution evolves.

We are in the middle of one of the most significant technological transformations since the Industrial Revolution. Artificial intelligence and autonomous systems are improving at an extraordinary pace. What seems cutting-edge today may be outdated or far more affordable, efficient, and capable in just a short time.

For those who haven't seen it, I highly recommend reading this Twitter/X post (85M+ views) that provides a great overview of how rapidly AI is accelerating:
https://x.com/mattshumer_/status/2021256989876109403

While organizations like Gateway Jax, UF, and others understandably want momentum and visible progress, Jax's history provides a cautionary lesson. The original Skyway and U2C show the risks of locking into expensive infrastructure during the early stages of evolving technology. If Jacksonville rushes a decision now, it risks saddling taxpayers with another long-term financial and operational burden just as better, more flexible solutions emerge.

A short-term pause to evaluate how AI and autonomous systems evolve could prevent another long-term mistake.

AI has surely evolved greatly over the past several years in particular. However, the technology is still very raw & industry experts don't agree on how it will progress. More importantly as it relates to autonomous driving, the feasibility & liability factors overshadow any local attempt at meaningfully tackling a last mile solution. These projects involve companies with annual budgets that exceed the State of California. The compounding of technical resources is absolutely vital with projects of this magnitude.

Jacksonville, with an annual budget of $2B, will not be involved in any meaningful AI or autonomous vehicle advancement. We should very simply hitch alongside other cities with products like Waymo & Robotaxi... which literally lose more money annually than our entire city budget for the hope of wide spread integration in the future.

The technology is scaling so hard, that the entire City of Jacksonville is simply unable to afford it. Holon, aka Benteler, will never build unless they are handed bags of cash. It's a loss from the jump & they know that. Hence, why there are still no permits & the date is continuously pushed back.

[CityLife]

Option 6. Before committing to any of the proposed alternatives, imo Jax should consider waiting a few more years to see how the AI and autonomous vehicle revolution evolves.

We are in the middle of one of the most significant technological transformations since the Industrial Revolution. Artificial intelligence and autonomous systems are improving at an extraordinary pace. What seems cutting-edge today may be outdated or far more affordable, efficient, and capable in just a short time.

For those who haven't seen it, I highly recommend reading this Twitter/X post (85M+ views) that provides a great overview of how rapidly AI is accelerating:
https://x.com/mattshumer_/status/2021256989876109403

While organizations like Gateway Jax, UF, and others understandably want momentum and visible progress, Jax's history provides a cautionary lesson. The original Skyway and U2C show the risks of locking into expensive infrastructure during the early stages of evolving technology. If Jacksonville rushes a decision now, it risks saddling taxpayers with another long-term financial and operational burden just as better, more flexible solutions emerge.

A short-term pause to evaluate how AI and autonomous systems evolve could prevent another long-term mistake.

AI has surely evolved greatly over the past several years in particular. However, the technology is still very raw & industry experts don't agree on how it will progress. More importantly as it relates to autonomous driving, the feasibility & liability factors overshadow any local attempt at meaningfully tackling a last mile solution. These projects involve companies with annual budgets that exceed the State of California. The compounding of technical resources is absolutely vital with projects of this magnitude.

Jacksonville, with an annual budget of $2B, will not be involved in any meaningful AI or autonomous vehicle advancement. We should very simply hitch alongside other cities with products like Waymo & Robotaxi... which literally lose more money annually than our entire city budget for the hope of wide spread integration in the future.

The technology is scaling so hard, that the entire City of Jacksonville is simply unable to afford it. Holon, aka Benteler, will never build unless they are handed bags of cash. It's a loss from the jump & they know that. Hence, why there are still no permits & the date is continuously pushed back.

I think we're largely saying the same thing. Imo, Jax should wait for technology to evolve before making decision. Jax is not in the position to be a leader in this space and should follow others lead.

Another thing, is that JTA's current leadership should also not be tasked with any major long term decisions until the U2C can be proven to be successful. It would be like giving a first time movie director $200 million for a $25 million flop, and then turning around and green lighting another $200 million dollar project.

[marcuscnelson]

Option 6. Before committing to any of the proposed alternatives, imo Jax should consider waiting a few more years to see how the AI and autonomous vehicle revolution evolves.

We are in the middle of one of the most significant technological transformations since the Industrial Revolution. Artificial intelligence and autonomous systems are improving at an extraordinary pace. What seems cutting-edge today may be outdated or far more affordable, efficient, and capable in just a short time.

For those who haven't seen it, I highly recommend reading this Twitter/X post (85M+ views) that provides a great overview of how rapidly AI is accelerating:
https://x.com/mattshumer_/status/2021256989876109403

While organizations like Gateway Jax, UF, and others understandably want momentum and visible progress, Jax's history provides a cautionary lesson. The original Skyway and U2C show the risks of locking into expensive infrastructure during the early stages of evolving technology. If Jacksonville rushes a decision now, it risks saddling taxpayers with another long-term financial and operational burden just as better, more flexible solutions emerge.

A short-term pause to evaluate how AI and autonomous systems evolve could prevent another long-term mistake.

I partly disagree, for reasons that go back to the fundamentals of why transportation systems work (or don't). Any solution with the Skyway or U2C needs to be built around the question of how people are meant to get around Jacksonville (or any city) at scale. Ultimately the basic challenge with something like Waymo is going to be the same as with Uber or just people driving: geometry. A car takes up space, and a car that only has one or two occupants proportionally takes up a lot of space, especially when you then need a lot of them to move a lot of people at once, for football games or festivals or just because a lot of people live there and all want to go places at the same time.

The car does not simply blip in and out of existence, so it has to exist somewhere at all times, so either we build the space for it to be or we start charging for access to limited space. The former strategy has guided many American cities to expensive demolition by highway, and the latter strategy tends to be politically unpopular, even if necessary.

The Skyway's relative lack of success has more to do with Downtown's lack of success than issues inherent to choice of technology. Meanwhile with NAVI, the choice actually has more to do with that, between its limited operating hours and uncomfortable ride and limited capacity in ways that make it deeply unappealing to potential riders. And that system then means over a dozen vehicles to move a few dozen people per day, and if demand were to increase those vehicles would immediately be full and uncomfortable.

I'm sure that people working in AI feel very passionate about the output of their work, but it's also worth noting that many of the people saying these things about autonomous vehicles felt exactly the same way a decade ago, which is why Jacksonville is even stuck contending with this "solution" in the first place. I am confident that we will eventually see a number of self-driving cars on our streets, but even then you are still going to need a baseload mode of mass transportation, for the same reasons that a city doesn't work with only taxis or only Ubers. Waymo doesn't fix sixty thousand people leaving a Jaguars game at once, or several thousand new residents if all these development proposals are actually built out. To that end, it still makes sense to have mass transit, and the technical question becomes what the best way to do that is. NAVI/U2C is not that, and Waymo geometrically won't do that either.

[thelakelander]

Any solution with the Skyway or U2C needs to be built around the question of how people are meant to get around Jacksonville (or any city) at scale.

This is one of the most important questions around this topic that continues to be downplayed, overlooked and not prioritized. I can understand the average person skipping over it but I don't understand why the experts at JTA (or their well paid consultants) refuse to address/acknowledge it. We can't determine the Skyway's future (or anything potentially replacing it) and come up with various pre-determined options like we're doing right now, without first looking into how these 2.5 miles of track fit within the overall regional mass transit network. This is a pretty backwards way of planning. Failure after a bunch of wasted tax money, will likely end up as the result.

[Ken_FSU]

For those smarter and more well-informed about these things that myself, the repayment of federal grants is often cited by JTA as the boogeyman in the room. If JTA engaged the FTA in good faith and said, "Listen, we got this grant from the UMTA (which doesn't even technically exist anymore) 37 years ago when monorail was all the rage, and it hasn't worked out the way we would have liked." Are they REALLY going to demand repayment? If we come forward with a smarter transit plan moving forward?

[marcuscnelson]

^ Problem is we then went back and got a federal earmark in the 1991 bill that turned the UMTA into the FTA for everything beyond that initial 0.7 mile starter segment, which then took several more years to construct. I'm not sure they're incentivized to just let it go and be clear that you can just abandon things you previously committed their money to.