Five-year Predictions (2025 edition)

[Ken_FSU]

Alright, it's been so long on the other thread that a lot of those projects have either died or radically changed.

I'm gonna start a new one.

Where do you think the following projects will be by Summer 2030 (five years from now).

Let me know if anything major appears to be missing. Have purposely left out a few that seems like done deals (Oak Steakhouse, Starbucks, etc).

Sports District/Northbank East
Stadium of the Future:
Daily's Place Flex Field Redesign:
Four Seasons:
Metropolitan Park Revamp:
Sports & Entertainment Complex:
Jags Sports Medicine Facility:
MOSH 2.0:
Shipyards West Park:
Shipyards West CRA Private Development:
Jail Relocation:
Convention Center:
Ford on Bay:
Berkman 2:

CBD/LaVilla
Riverfront Plaza Phase 2:
Times-Union Center Musical Heritage Park:
Riverfront Plaza Mixed-Use Tower:
Bread & Board Repurpose:
James Weldon Johnson Park Redesign:
Snyder Memorial Church Repurpose:
Laura Street Trio:
Main Street Library Retail Bay reopening:
UF Graduate Campus:
Jacksonville Terminal/Prime Osborne Retail/Train Station conversion:
Brightline Jax leg:
Pearl Street District:
Pearl Square Grocery store:
Old JEA Headquarters Residential Conversion:
Jones Bros Furniture:
Ambassador Hotel:
Independent Life Building:
Old Greyhound Station/Illegal Surface Parking lot to 250-story skyscraper conversion:

Southbank
Rivers Edge Private Development:
Related Southbank Tower:
Friendship Park Restaurant:
Duval County Public Schools Relocation:

Misc
Emerald Trail:
U2C:
Commuter Rail/Fixed Transit pilot:

Bonus Predictions:
Downtown Office Occupancy Rate (currently 74%):
Downtown Residential Occupancy Rate (currently 96%):
Downtown Retail Occupancy Rate (currently 70%, though I'm not sure how this accounts for vacant structures):

[heights unknown]

250 story skyscraper conversion; you're kidding and joking right? Trying to see my reaction or bait me in LOL? What was the original proposal (I think from a developer out of Miami), for the former Greyhound Bus Terminal Lot? Thanks.

[Joey Mackey]

This is fun. Here are my color-coded predictions. Basically, if the project isn't directly under Shad Kahn or Gateway's control, I don't see a very high chance for the project to have any progress. Unless the project is riverfront park operated by the City.


Sports District/Northbank East
Stadium of the Future: Completed
Daily's Place Flex Field Redesign: Completed
Four Seasons: Completed
Metropolitan Park Revamp: Under construction
Sports & Entertainment Complex: Under construction
Jags Sports Medicine Facility: Under construction
MOSH 2.0: Under construction
Shipyards West Park: Under construction
Shipyards West CRA Private Development: Vacant
Jail Relocation: Stuck in feasibility report hell
Convention Center: Abandoned
Ford on Bay: Vacant
Berkman 2: Vacant

CBD/LaVilla
Riverfront Plaza Phase 2: Under Construction
Times-Union Center Musical Heritage Park: Under Construction
Riverfront Plaza Mixed-Use Tower: Under Construction
Bread & Board Repurpose: Lol
James Weldon Johnson Park Redesign: Stuck in design mockup hell
Snyder Memorial Church Repurpose: No change from current status quo
Laura Street Trio: No change from current status quo
Main Street Library Retail Bay reopening: Abandoned
UF Graduate Campus: Zero Actual Construction Progress
Jacksonville Terminal/Prime Osborne Retail/Train Station conversion: Zero Progress
Brightline Jax leg: Zero Progress
Pearl Street District: Completed and under construction
Pearl Square Grocery store: Completed
Old JEA Headquarters Residential Conversion: Abandoned
Jones Bros Furniture: Under Construction
Ambassador Hotel: Completed
Independent Life Building: Abandoned
Old Greyhound Station/Illegal Surface Parking lot to 250-story skyscraper conversion: Abandoned

Southbank
Rivers Edge Private Development: No change from current status quo (only townhomes)
Related Southbank Tower: Abandoned
Friendship Park Restaurant: Under construction
Duval County Public Schools Relocation: Moved to suburbs

Misc
Emerald Trail: Under Construction
U2C: Still Alive
Commuter Rail/Fixed Transit pilot: No Progess

Bonus Predictions:
Downtown Office Occupancy Rate (currently 74%): 80 percent
Downtown Residential Occupancy Rate (currently 96%): 97 percent
Downtown Retail Occupancy Rate (currently 70%, though I'm not sure how this accounts for vacant structures): 75 percent

[heights unknown]

I don't think Related is abandoned (I hope not). City Council approved $58.79 million dollars in funding along with a completion grant and REV grant. The Developer has until April 30, 2029 to complete construction. Groundbreaking was supposed to happen shortly after funding/REV grant by City Council earlier but only after the bulkhead reconstruction in that area (this was supposed to happen or commence around April 2025). So to the best of my knowledge, it is still a go.

[thelakelander]

Definitely time for a new one! Thanks for pulling this together. Here's my predictions!

Sports District/Northbank East
Stadium of the Future: Completed
Daily's Place Flex Field Redesign: Completed
Four Seasons: Completed
Metropolitan Park Revamp: Completed
Sports & Entertainment Complex: Under Construction
Jags Sports Medicine Facility: Not Started
MOSH 2.0: Under Construction
Shipyards West Park: Under Construction
Shipyards West CRA Private Development: Not Started
Jail Relocation: Not Started
Convention Center: Not Started
Ford on Bay: Under Construction
Berkman 2: Not Started

CBD/LaVilla
Riverfront Plaza Phase 2: Under Construction
Times-Union Center Musical Heritage Park: Completed
Riverfront Plaza Mixed-Use Tower: Under Construction
Bread & Board Repurpose: Completed
James Weldon Johnson Park Redesign: Not Started
Snyder Memorial Church Repurpose: Not Started
Laura Street Trio: Under Construction
Main Street Library Retail Bay reopening: Not on anyone's radar
UF Graduate Campus: Under Construction. Prime Osborn will still be open at the old train station
Jacksonville Terminal/Prime Osborne Retail/Train Station conversion: No, UF will still be building north of Bay. It will take two decades for the LaVilla campus to build-out
Brightline Jax leg: No, at best, Brightline will be under construction with the Tampa leg
Pearl Street District: Completed
Pearl Square Grocery store: Under Construction
Old JEA Headquarters Residential Conversion: Not Started
Jones Bros Furniture: Completed
Ambassador Hotel: Completed
Independent Life Building: Completed
Old Greyhound Station/Illegal Surface Parking lot to 250-story skyscraper conversion: Lol nothing will be happening here by 2030.

Southbank
Rivers Edge Private Development: Maybe another stick frame apartment complex may be under construction. Whatever it is, it won't match the scale of what's shown in current renderings
Related Southbank Tower: Under Construction
Friendship Park Restaurant: Completed
Duval County Public Schools Relocation: Completed but they'll be in the burbs

Misc
Emerald Trail: Under Construction through 2035-2040. Full completion by 2030 is a pipe dream
U2C: Bay Street will be all we get. Dudes will still be driving empty vans. Lack of public support and rising costs will kill JTA's expansion dreams
Commuter Rail/Fixed Transit pilot: Will open on the 35th day of Juvember. Need an actual project planned first before predicting construction or completion

Bonus Predictions:
Downtown Office Occupancy Rate (currently 74%): 75%
Downtown Residential Occupancy Rate (currently 96%): 98%
Downtown Retail Occupancy Rate (currently 70%, though I'm not sure how this accounts for vacant structures): 65%. There will be more retail but the new projects will add extra retail space that will incrementally fill in outside of the 5 year window.

[Charles Hunter]

I don't have the insight to 'do' the whole list. So I will just snipe.

Stadium of the Future - completed, but value engineered to look noticeably different from The Renderings

[heights unknown]

I had no idea the Riverfront Plaza Tower, or even the Related Tower was under construction (I'd better make a trip to DT Jax and see cause its been a minute). Last I heard on Related their replacing, strengthening, etc. the riverfront bulkhead and THEN construction will start. One more question...I thought the "Ford On Bay" project/development was dead? Didn't know that was revived and is under construction. Thanks.

[Lostwave]

Sports District/Northbank East
Stadium of the Future: Completed
Daily's Place Flex Field Redesign: Completed
Four Seasons: Completed
Metropolitan Park Revamp: Completed and useable, but not everything promised
Sports & Entertainment Complex: Not Started but close to breaking ground.
Jags Sports Medicine Facility: Not Started
MOSH 2.0: Not Started
Shipyards West Park: Grassy Field
Shipyards West CRA Private Development: Crickets
Jail Relocation: Lots of Talk
Convention Center: Nothing
Ford on Bay: Nothing
Berkman 2: Nothing

CBD/LaVilla
Riverfront Plaza Phase 2: Under Construction
Times-Union Center Musical Heritage Park: Not Started
Riverfront Plaza Mixed-Use Tower: Under Construction
Bread & Board Repurpose: Not Started
James Weldon Johnson Park Redesign: Not Started
Snyder Memorial Church Repurpose: Nothing
Laura Street Trio: Not Started, but new owner with new plans underway
Main Street Library Retail Bay reopening: Nothing
UF Graduate Campus: In Progress, Classes in some buildings, Construction on Some
Jacksonville Terminal/Prime Osborne Retail/Train Station conversion: Nothing
Brightline Jax leg: Nothing
Pearl Street District: Some Completed, some Under Construction
Pearl Square Grocery store: Completed
Old JEA Headquarters Residential Conversion: Nothing
Jones Bros Furniture: Under Construction
Ambassador Hotel: Completed
Independent Life Building: Completed
Old Greyhound Station/Illegal Surface Parking lot to 250-story skyscraper conversion: Parking Lot

Southbank
Rivers Edge Private Development: Under Construction, some units Completed
Related Southbank Tower: Under Construction
Friendship Park Restaurant: Completed
Duval County Public Schools Relocation: Nothing

Misc
Emerald Trail: Part Completed, Part Under Construction, Part Abandoned due to funding
U2C: Abandoned.  Talks of Fixing and Extending the Skyway for 400m
Commuter Rail/Fixed Transit pilot: Nothing

Bonus Predictions:
Downtown Office Occupancy Rate (currently 74%): 74%
Downtown Residential Occupancy Rate (currently 96%): 80%, but with a ton more units available.  Population bigger.
Downtown Retail Occupancy Rate (currently 70%, though I'm not sure how this accounts for vacant structures): 85% also with more space at pearl district, so overall growth

[Ken_FSU]

Mine:

Sports District/Northbank East
Stadium of the Future: Completed; no other choice
Daily's Place Flex Field Redesign: Completed; in this year's CIP
Four Seasons: Completed; getting close
Metropolitan Park Revamp: Completed; budgeted for, required through CBA
Sports & Entertainment Complex:Not yet under construction. Hope I'm wrong, I think this is the glue that ties that entire end of downtown together, but also not quite sure where the money would come from.
Jags Sports Medicine Facility: Abandoned; Baptist seemed fully on board a few years back, but crickets since
MOSH 2.0: In development/budgetary hell; will be a miracle if this one is open by end of decade
Shipyards West Park: Completed; budgeted for, required through CBA and through land swap requirements
Shipyards West CRA Private Development: On pause after initial RFP fails to draw compelling proposals
Jail Relocation: Not facility under construction through private partnership; existing jail still open
Convention Center: Not yet started; indecisiveness about a gap plan between closing Prime Osborne and building a new convention center down the road leads to a period where no proper convention center exists in Jacksonville
Ford on Bay: One of the hardest to predict. Stick frames nearing completion.
Berkman 2: Big project announced, then no action for years.

CBD/LaVilla
Riverfront Plaza Phase 2: Completed; budgeted for, required through CBA
Times-Union Center Musical Heritage Park: Completed within the next 12 months
Riverfront Plaza Mixed-Use Tower: Under construction, with similar design & incentives discussed this year
Bread & Board Repurpose: A couple of different restaurants churn through
James Weldon Johnson Park Redesign: Completed, with claustrophobic, problematic design proposed last year
Snyder Memorial Church Repurpose: Completed; DIA shifting $4 million into it should help.
Laura Street Trio: Not started; new ownership, same problems.
Main Street Library Retail Bay reopening: Abandoned.
UF Graduate Campus: Open with limited students, no new construction completed. Questions about promise vs. delivery.
Jacksonville Terminal/Prime Osborne Retail/Train Station conversion: Under construction.
Brightline Jax leg: Brightline's future in question; no progress
Pearl Street District: Large chunk completed
Pearl Square Grocery store: Open as a Publix
Old JEA Headquarters Residential Conversion: Demolished after unsuccessful attempt to attract developer for conversion; surface parking
Jones Bros Furniture: Completed
Ambassador Hotel: Completed
Independent Life Building: Still on prolonged pause
Old Greyhound Station/Illegal Surface Parking lot to 250-story skyscraper conversion: Being reimagined by developer as 500-stories; paid surface parking lot to remain open during "visioning period"

Southbank
Rivers Edge Private Development: Hotel + stick frame apartments under construction
Related Southbank Tower: Completed, or nearly completed
Friendship Park Restaurant: Abandoned
Duval County Public Schools Relocation: Not started

Misc
Emerald Trail: 50% complete, with value engineering, but still coming along nicely
U2C: Bay Street + One expansion; average daily ridership < 100
Commuter Rail/Fixed Transit pilot: 1,000th feasibility student underway

Bonus Predictions:
Downtown Office Occupancy Rate (currently 74%): 68%
Downtown Residential Occupancy Rate (currently 96%): 90%, with the reduction coming from extra premium inventory
Downtown Retail Occupancy Rate (currently 70%, though I'm not sure how this accounts for vacant structures):
[/quote] 70%, with healthy retail growth via new construction, and continued churn/attrition with existing stock

[Tacachale]

I don't think Related is abandoned (I hope not). City Council approved $58.79 million dollars in funding along with a completion grant and REV grant. The Developer has until April 30, 2029 to complete construction. Groundbreaking was supposed to happen shortly after funding/REV grant by City Council earlier but only after the bulkhead reconstruction in that area (this was supposed to happen or commence around April 2025). So to the best of my knowledge, it is still a go.

Yes, Related is still on schedule.

[jcjohnpaint]

Sports District/Northbank East
Stadium of the Future: Completed
Daily's Place Flex Field Redesign: Completed
Four Seasons: Completed
Metropolitan Park Revamp: Completed
Sports & Entertainment Complex: Under Construction
Jags Sports Medicine Facility: Not Started/ Something else proposed
MOSH 2.0: Under Construction
Shipyards West Park: Nothing
Shipyards West CRA Private Nothing
Jail Relocation: Ongoing battle between politicians
Convention Center: Ongoing battle between politicians
Ford on Bay: Nothing
Berkman 2: Nothing

CBD/LaVilla
Riverfront Plaza Phase 2: Done
Times-Union Center Musical Heritage Park: Done
Riverfront Plaza Mixed-Use Tower: Under Construction
Bread & Board Repurpose: Not sure what this is.
James Weldon Johnson Park Redesign: Given Pearl St. Something planned
Snyder Memorial Church Repurpose: Honestly, no idea
Laura Street Trio: Please, something other than the status quo
Main Street Library Retail Bay reopening: Nothing
UF Graduate Campus: In Progress, Classes in some buildings, Construction starting
Jacksonville Terminal/Prime Osborne Retail/Train Station conversion: Nothing
Brightline Jax leg: Nothing with no plan of expansion after Tampa
Pearl Street District: Some Completed, some Under Construction
Pearl Square Grocery store: Completed
Old JEA Headquarters Residential Conversion: Five different proposals
Jones Bros Furniture: Completed
Ambassador Hotel: Completed
Independent Life Building: Completed
Old Greyhound Station/Illegal Surface Parking lot to 9000-story skyscraper conversion on top of surface parking lot

Southbank
Rivers Edge Private Development: All becomes all townhomes
Related Southbank Tower: Under Construction
Friendship Park Restaurant: Completed
Duval County Public Schools Relocation: Ongoing battle between politicians and School goes to suburbs

Misc
Emerald Trail: Part Completed, Part Under Construction, Some scaled back, Part Abandoned due to funding
U2C: Abandoned, Nat Ford forced retirement, Skyway demolished, and no talk about fixed transit for another 150 years
Commuter Rail/Fixed Transit pilot: Nothing, no talk about fixed transit for another 150 years

Add Brooklyn:
Block Nine: Under Construction
Riverside Office Buildling Retail Bay: Under Construction

[jaxlongtimer]

You left out one significant project: I-95 and I-10.  My prediction:  Never ending construction.  Other streets:  Nothing done.

U2C:  Has become a major scandal still being discussed and investigated.  Abandoned Skyway track up for debate: convert to a highline-type project or tear it down. 

JTA:  Nat Ford has moved on, leaving another stain on JTA's long legacy of wasteful, mismanaged and/or worthless projects.  Talk is about reinventing JTA given it is a failed agency.

City Council: People fed up with partisan grandstanding, turn over the Council and finally elect moderate, collaborative, thoughtful, bi-partisan or non-partisan, civic minded council members... NOT!  City government still in political limbo.

Mayor:  Donna Deegan re-elected despite her agenda being held back by partisan City Council majority.

Super Bowl:  Jax awarded another one due to City's growth and the rebuilt stadium provided the City has bothered to preserve adequate public spaces for 6 figure crowds.  Not a sure thing.

[MakeDTjaxGre@tAgain]

You left out one significant project: I-95 and I-10.  My prediction:  Never ending construction.  Other streets:  Nothing done.

U2C:  Has become a major scandal still being discussed and investigated.  Abandoned Skyway track up for debate: convert to a highline-type project or tear it down. 

JTA:  Nat Ford has moved on, leaving another stain on JTA's long legacy of wasteful, mismanaged and/or worthless projects.  Talk is about reinventing JTA given it is a failed agency.

City Council: People fed up with partisan grandstanding, turn over the Council and finally elect moderate, collaborative, thoughtful, bi-partisan or non-partisan, civic minded council members... NOT!  City government still in political limbo.

Mayor:  Donna Deegan re-elected despite her agenda being held back by partisan City Council majority.

Super Bowl:  Jax awarded another one due to City's growth and the rebuilt stadium provided the City has bothered to preserve adequate public spaces for 6 figure crowds.  Not a sure thing.

Funny you made the last point. I think most of these projects will push through if we do get a second chance to host the SB. The city wouldn't want to repeat its last experience - hotel rooms, restaurant and lack of nightlife etc. With the residential population potentially to rise to the 10k lucky number, I think we'll see more investors coming into the area - especially if a SB is awarded. 2032 is my prediction. It gives them enough time to make the entertainment district a true entertainment district. Also, not sure about Lot J, but I'm sure sometime soon Iguana LLC will disclose their renderings for the fairgrounds.

Lastly, any predictions on whether the "Ford on Bay" marina will get built?

[thelakelander]

^

Lastly, any predictions on whether the "Ford on Bay" marina will get built?

My prediction: Only the first phase of the marina will be completed.

[Skybox111]

I guess the block n8 will start construction anywhere from September to December since it was mentioned it would start in the fall and that construction of the parking garage for the ambassador will be in September and block n5 for the lighthouse garage will happen after construction of the ambassador garage. What happened to the grocer and 16 story bryan said on may 29 that possibly in a week there would be a announcement of it and now almost 2 months nothing did something happen with the grocer.   And what was that development picture around the campus building?