Brightline ready to expand rail system to Tampa

[thelakelander]

Yeah, like Tampa needing that Disney stop, Jax wouldn't have enough ridership on its own. We'd have to rely on the strength of the corridor and tourist destinations like St. Augustine and Daytona Beach as well. Then even if it isn't Brightline, something similar should be explored via an Amtrak intercity corridor service. With the recent change in the White House, the next four years might be the best opportunity for funding since the Amtrak Flagler Line proposal went up in smoke.

[jaxlongtimer]

^ Anecdotally, two decades or more ago, Southwest use to have at least 7 round trips on a 135 seat 737 every day to Ft. Lauderdale, all full.  Plus, all the other airlines that were flying to FTL, WPB or MIA (American, Continental, etc.) too.  I would imagine the demand would be much greater now given just the growth in population.  Wonder what traffic volumes Brightline needs to justify an expansion to Jax.

Not sure of Brightline's travel times, but if they could make Jax-South Florida, center city to center city, in, say, 4 hours or less, that could be appealing to business travelers and maybe more (e.g. cruise ship passengers) as a foundation for the service.

An express connection to MIA might do even better.  I  would also think it would help Jax attract more international attention given MIA's gateway to much of the world.

Of course, Brightline could draw passengers from the airlines so there might be some trade-offs if it doesn't serve to grow the market or pull people off the interstates.

[marcuscnelson]

^ Seeing as Brightline expects to make the ~170 miles from West Palm Beach to Orlando in ~2 hours (avg speed of 85 mph), the ~330 miles between Jacksonville and Miami should be doable in under 4 hours if they can maintain the same average speed or better. Any slower than that and they're beyond that timeline. A 110 mph average (presumably some kind of express direct service after track upgrades) could get you there in 3 hours.

I'd like to think that Brightline's early support for service along the entire mainline would make Jacksonville more likely than not, but that still probably depends on how much we care as a city about putting in the effort to get them here. And a South Florida-style service of Jax-St.Aug-Daytona would likely be critical in making it all work, plus their need for TOD in the vicinity of wherever they build.

Then even if it isn't Brightline, something similar should be explored via an Amtrak intercity corridor service. With the recent change in the White House, the next four years might be the best opportunity for funding since the Amtrak Flagler Line proposal went up in smoke.

Wouldn't that require repealing the requirement for corridor service (<800 miles I think?) to be funded by the state? And would FEC allow Amtrak on at this point, or would Brightline need to approve it?

[WAJAS]

^ Seeing as Brightline expects to make the ~170 miles from West Palm Beach to Orlando in ~2 hours (avg speed of 85 mph), the ~330 miles between Jacksonville and Miami should be doable in under 4 hours if they can maintain the same average speed or better. Any slower than that and they're beyond that timeline. A 110 mph average (presumably some kind of express direct service after track upgrades) could get you there in 3 hours.

I'd like to think that Brightline's early support for service along the entire mainline would make Jacksonville more likely than not, but that still probably depends on how much we care as a city about putting in the effort to get them here. And a South Florida-style service of Jax-St.Aug-Daytona would likely be critical in making it all work, plus their need for TOD in the vicinity of wherever they build.

You can't assume the same speed for the route from MIA to Jax. The portion of the route between ORL and the coast is the only true high speed rail segment, so it will skew your average speed high. The at grade crossings on the FEC mainline restrict the speed in that corridor. A better comparison would be calculating the average speed between West Palm and MIA to extrapolate to Jax.

This assumes Brightline only upgrades the tracks while keeping the at grade crossings like they did on the rest of the FEC mainline.

[marcuscnelson]

^ Hence using the average speed.

if they can maintain the same average speed or better.

is a big if, I know. They're at least projecting the ~70 mile route from MIA-WPB to run at ~79 mph or so, in which case MIA-JAX is going to be 4 hours and 10 minutes. Although, WPB-Cocoa is supposed to run at 110 mph, so that would skew the average higher. And I don't think it's entirely out of the question that they might upgrade, say, Cocoa-Daytona to run at similar speeds to WPB-Cocoa, or the portion of St. Augustine-Jax that runs through basically nowhere along US-1, which could also reduce times.

[Pottsburg]

^ Seeing as Brightline expects to make the ~170 miles from West Palm Beach to Orlando in ~2 hours (avg speed of 85 mph), the ~330 miles between Jacksonville and Miami should be doable in under 4 hours if they can maintain the same average speed or better. Any slower than that and they're beyond that timeline. A 110 mph average (presumably some kind of express direct service after track upgrades) could get you there in 3 hours.

I'd like to think that Brightline's early support for service along the entire mainline would make Jacksonville more likely than not, but that still probably depends on how much we care as a city about putting in the effort to get them here. And a South Florida-style service of Jax-St.Aug-Daytona would likely be critical in making it all work, plus their need for TOD in the vicinity of wherever they build.

You can't assume the same speed for the route from MIA to Jax. The portion of the route between ORL and the coast is the only true high speed rail segment, so it will skew your average speed high. The at grade crossings on the FEC mainline restrict the speed in that corridor. A better comparison would be calculating the average speed between West Palm and MIA to extrapolate to Jax.

This assumes Brightline only upgrades the tracks while keeping the at grade crossings like they did on the rest of the FEC mainline.

Actually the maximum authorized speed between Mia and WPB is 79mph. From WPB to Cocoa is 110mph, and then the cut down the beeline (528) is 120mph. That being said you could prob keep the 110 to St Augustine. There is a lot of rural area that doesn't have too many crossings where you can rip and run. Absolutely you will have to slow down for a few curves and little downtown areas but I think you could prob increase that average a bit. 

[CityLife]

The big challenge with the northward extension is that St. Augustine is the golden goose. That is where people from South Florida/Orlando and out of state visitors want to visit for vacation. It is also a highly desirable place to live and offers a charming, quaint small-town feel that no places on the Brightline corridor offer. That same quaintness and protection of the small town-feel will prevent Brightline from making any major TOD moves in St. Auggie, which is a key aspect of their business model.

Daytona Beach offers virtually nothing in terms of tourism for people that typically use Brightline. Tickets are not that cheap, as it is somewhat of a premium rail service. Nobody from South Florida would go to Daytona for the beach and if you live in or are visiting Orlando and have the option of South Florida or Daytona for a beach vacation, 99% of people will choose South Florida. Palm Beach County and portions of Dade are expensive for oceanfront hotels, but it's really not that much more expensive to stay at a lot of oceanfront resorts in Fort Lauderdale or Miami Beach than Daytona.

So it ultimately comes down to Jax as a big driver of an extension. Living and working in South Florida, when I tell people in the development and planning world that I'm from Jax, a common question that comes up is, "what is wrong with Downtown, I was there and it is a ghost town" (we're talking pre-Covid visits). People are genuinely fascinated with it.  If people want Brightline, Downtown Jax absolutely has to get it's act together, or it will be an afterthought.

[thelakelander]

The big challenge with the northward extension is that St. Augustine is the golden goose. That is where people from South Florida/Orlando and out of state visitors want to visit for vacation. It is also a highly desirable place to live and offers a charming, quaint small-town feel that no places on the Brightline corridor offer. That same quaintness and protection of the small town-feel will prevent Brightline from making any major TOD moves in St. Auggie, which is a key aspect of their business model.

I believe St. Auggie offers TOD potential. It will just be to the north of the historic district, near the old FEC railroad station or the airport.

Daytona Beach offers virtually nothing in terms of tourism for people that typically use Brightline. Tickets are not that cheap, as it is somewhat of a premium rail service. Nobody from South Florida would go to Daytona for the beach and if you live in or are visiting Orlando and have the option of South Florida or Daytona for a beach vacation, 99% of people will choose South Florida. Palm Beach County and portions of Dade are expensive for oceanfront hotels, but it's really not that much more expensive to stay at a lot of oceanfront resorts in Fort Lauderdale or Miami Beach than Daytona.

Daytona could be a special event draw. It's more than low income people attending the big race events and some of the things going on there. I haven't thought much about Palm Coast, but that's a rapidly growing retirement/resort community as well. It should be getting close to 100k permanent residents in city limits now.

So it ultimately comes down to Jax as a big driver of an extension. Living and working in South Florida, when I tell people in the development and planning world that I'm from Jax, a common question that comes up is, "what is wrong with Downtown, I was there and it is a ghost town" (we're talking pre-Covid visits). People are genuinely fascinated with it.  If people want Brightline, Downtown Jax absolutely has to get it's act together, or it will be an afterthought.

Definitely agree. I think Jax also has an opportunity to pull Amtrak connections from other areas of the country and leveraging its proximity to Amelia Island, Ponte Vedra, the area's beaches and Jax's own historic urban core neighborhoods. So even from that perspective, the FEC as an intercity rail connection to Brightline in Cocoa would still have some legs if the Brightline extension into Jax isn't feasible from a ridership perspective.

[Pottsburg]

The big challenge with the northward extension is that St. Augustine is the golden goose. That is where people from South Florida/Orlando and out of state visitors want to visit for vacation. It is also a highly desirable place to live and offers a charming, quaint small-town feel that no places on the Brightline corridor offer. That same quaintness and protection of the small town-feel will prevent Brightline from making any major TOD moves in St. Auggie, which is a key aspect of their business model.

I believe St. Auggie offers TOD potential. It will just be to the north of the historic district, near the old FEC railroad station or the airport.

Daytona Beach offers virtually nothing in terms of tourism for people that typically use Brightline. Tickets are not that cheap, as it is somewhat of a premium rail service. Nobody from South Florida would go to Daytona for the beach and if you live in or are visiting Orlando and have the option of South Florida or Daytona for a beach vacation, 99% of people will choose South Florida. Palm Beach County and portions of Dade are expensive for oceanfront hotels, but it's really not that much more expensive to stay at a lot of oceanfront resorts in Fort Lauderdale or Miami Beach than Daytona.

Daytona could be a special event draw. It's more than low income people attending the big race events and some of the things going on there. I haven't thought much about Palm Coast, but that's a rapidly growing retirement/resort community as well. It should be getting close to 100k permanent residents in city limits now.

So it ultimately comes down to Jax as a big driver of an extension. Living and working in South Florida, when I tell people in the development and planning world that I'm from Jax, a common question that comes up is, "what is wrong with Downtown, I was there and it is a ghost town" (we're talking pre-Covid visits). People are genuinely fascinated with it.  If people want Brightline, Downtown Jax absolutely has to get it's act together, or it will be an afterthought.

Definitely agree. I think Jax also has an opportunity to pull Amtrak connections from other areas of the country and leveraging its proximity to Amelia Island, Ponte Vedra, the area's beaches and Jax's own historic urban core neighborhoods. So even from that perspective, the FEC as an intercity rail connection to Brightline in Cocoa would still have some legs if the Brightline extension into Jax isn't feasible from a ridership perspective.

FEC corporate headquarters used to be in St Aug, and as much as the railroad has done for that city, I don't think there will be pushback. St Aug loves FEC and the railroad has donated a lot of land to the college and the city. They still own a lot of land there that gives them plenty of room to maneuver a station whoever they want. Plus there is only a fraction of rod crossings compared to south Florida. Jax is the driver I agree but st Augustine should fall in line with minimal issue IMO.

This whole talk of Amtrak is a pipe dream on the FEC line. They are the most profitable railroad in the country per mile of track. They don't want a train that requires more scrutiny, and can never seem to run on time clogging up their tracks. The last few CEOs have been very against Amtrak because of this. Also now Mexico is have headache after headache with Brightline, they don't need another train that's just going to cost them money instead of making it.

[jaxlongtimer]

^ Curious, if FEC has Brightline running on its tracks, how much more of a leap is it to handle Amtrak?  Is there room in the ROW to add a dedicated passenger rail track to avoid most conflicts with freight?

Seems a stop in St. Augustine would be similar to the Sun Rail/Amtrak stop in Winter Park in terms of ambiance and positioning.  How is that stop working out for the rail lines and Winter Park?

[Sonic101]

Been awhile since I've heard anything on the redevelopment of the Broudy's site in St. Augustine. Plans included a train station, but I can't imagine Brightline using a station that's not theirs.

https://www.staugustine.com/news/20190513/st-augustine-commissioners-express-excitement-but-caution-over-broudys-proposal

[thelakelander]

This was from the 2014 Amtrak proposal:

[thelakelander]

[CityLife]

The big challenge with the northward extension is that St. Augustine is the golden goose. That is where people from South Florida/Orlando and out of state visitors want to visit for vacation. It is also a highly desirable place to live and offers a charming, quaint small-town feel that no places on the Brightline corridor offer. That same quaintness and protection of the small town-feel will prevent Brightline from making any major TOD moves in St. Auggie, which is a key aspect of their business model.

I believe St. Auggie offers TOD potential. It will just be to the north of the historic district, near the old FEC railroad station or the airport.

Daytona Beach offers virtually nothing in terms of tourism for people that typically use Brightline. Tickets are not that cheap, as it is somewhat of a premium rail service. Nobody from South Florida would go to Daytona for the beach and if you live in or are visiting Orlando and have the option of South Florida or Daytona for a beach vacation, 99% of people will choose South Florida. Palm Beach County and portions of Dade are expensive for oceanfront hotels, but it's really not that much more expensive to stay at a lot of oceanfront resorts in Fort Lauderdale or Miami Beach than Daytona.

Daytona could be a special event draw. It's more than low income people attending the big race events and some of the things going on there. I haven't thought much about Palm Coast, but that's a rapidly growing retirement/resort community as well. It should be getting close to 100k permanent residents in city limits now.

So it ultimately comes down to Jax as a big driver of an extension. Living and working in South Florida, when I tell people in the development and planning world that I'm from Jax, a common question that comes up is, "what is wrong with Downtown, I was there and it is a ghost town" (we're talking pre-Covid visits). People are genuinely fascinated with it.  If people want Brightline, Downtown Jax absolutely has to get it's act together, or it will be an afterthought.

Definitely agree. I think Jax also has an opportunity to pull Amtrak connections from other areas of the country and leveraging its proximity to Amelia Island, Ponte Vedra, the area's beaches and Jax's own historic urban core neighborhoods. So even from that perspective, the FEC as an intercity rail connection to Brightline in Cocoa would still have some legs if the Brightline extension into Jax isn't feasible from a ridership perspective.

FEC corporate headquarters used to be in St Aug, and as much as the railroad has done for that city, I don't think there will be pushback. St Aug loves FEC and the railroad has donated a lot of land to the college and the city. They still own a lot of land there that gives them plenty of room to maneuver a station whoever they want. Plus there is only a fraction of rod crossings compared to south Florida. Jax is the driver I agree but st Augustine should fall in line with minimal issue IMO.

This whole talk of Amtrak is a pipe dream on the FEC line. They are the most profitable railroad in the country per mile of track. They don't want a train that requires more scrutiny, and can never seem to run on time clogging up their tracks. The last few CEOs have been very against Amtrak because of this. Also now Mexico is have headache after headache with Brightline, they don't need another train that's just going to cost them money instead of making it.

The concerns from St. Augustine are fear of overdevelopment, not being anti-railroad. From Brightline's model, they want large multi-family projects to help drive their expansion. For instance, they developed 816 units at their Miami stop and 290 at their WPB stop.

I just don't see the City of St. Augustine going for a large-scale multi-family project within the city limits. You have to go all the way north to the St. Johns County Complex (roughly 3 miles north of the historic district) or west of the San Sebastian on King Street to be able to develop anything outside of the city limits, and neither area is where Brightline wants to be or where you would be able to build high grade multi-family.

[marcuscnelson]

^ This is very ironic, seeing what the rest of the county looks like, and the kind of leadership they keep electing. Odds are Brightline just needs to start donating to political campaigns, same way the road builders and real estate developers do, and things will generally fall into place. Whether it's the old FEC station or a new one at Carrera Street, I would be surprised if they really said no to "luxury" ~4-story, historically-styled apartments along the mainline. If Brightline proposed building a high rise like what they have in WPB (they won't), then maybe the tune would be different.