The end of Florida?

[finehoe]

Yogi Berra once said that, "The future ain't what it used to be." His words could serve as yet another warning for the residents of today's Florida, a state that finds itself in the eye of the storm on climate change.

It's customary on the first day of the half-year-long hurricane season to issue a reminder about preparing for what a well-known book (and movie of the same name) once called The Mean Season. Long-time Floridians know they have to be ready, and that now is the time to prepare.

Feeling complacent because Florida hasn't been hit by a major storm in 10 years? Consider this: On April 11, 1992, the Herald ran a story with the following headline: Slow season forecast for hurricanes. Four months later, Hurricane Andrew devastated South Miami-Dade. And here's a headline we spotted last week in the Sun Sentinel: NOAA predicts slow hurricane season. Our advice: Be prepared for the worst.

But as bad as hurricanes are, they do not pose existential threats to Florida, or to our future. The recurring peril of windstorms has certainly not stopped the influx of millions of new residents that began in the post-war years and has turned Florida into the third most populous state in the union.

But climate change — specifically, sea-level rise caused by global warming — poses a challenge of another order of magnitude. A hurricane hits our shores like a big bang. It's here and then gone, leaving disaster in its wake. We clean up, we move on.

Sea-level rise is something else: an insidious attack, slowly gnawing away at our beaches, our coastline, our coastal cities. It doesn't go away.

And it's here already. Look at the flooded streets in Miami Beach. Or, further up the coast, the 450-year-old city of St. Augustine, whose streets already flood about 10 times a year, and homes built on sand dunes teetering over open space as the Atlantic encroaches on the foundations. All of Florida's coastal cities face similar threats. Over on the Gulf side, the Tampa/St. Pete area is deemed particularly vulnerable to rising seas because roads and bridges weren't designed to handle higher tides.

Insurance giant Swiss Re, according to a recent news story, has estimated that the economy in southeast Florida could sustain $33 billion in damage from sea-level rise and other climate changes by 2030.

The Southeast Florida Regional Climate Compact said last year that waters around this area could surge up to two feet by 2060, posing a huge threat to our infrastructure and fresh water supplies and, ultimately, our way of life.

These are not wild guesses or alarmist warnings. They're predictions, based on accepted science. And here's the rub: While some communities, like Miami Beach, are scrambling to prepare for this challenge, the state of Florida has no plan. Gov. Rick Scott's disregard for climate change science has created a culture of fear among state employees.

We don't think the end of Florida is inevitable, or even likely. But the end of Florida as we know it is certainly possible, and growing more likely every year as the state's once limitless future erodes along with the vanishing beaches and shrinking shoreline.

State leaders, it's not too late to steer Florida in the right direction. We should be drawing up plans to cope with the challenges of the future, instead of heading blindly toward certain disaster. Or, as Yogi Berra also said: "If you don't know where you are going, you might wind up someplace else."

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/editorials/article22639026.html

[coredumped]

The sky is falling, the sky is falling!

I agree that this is a problem, partially man made, but I don't think we need to call it "the end of florida."

What I would like to see is Obama stop droning, fighting endless wars and maybe invest in this country. Main street bridge is falling apart, we're borrowing money from China, the space program has been cut, yet he continues to fund wars. That money would be much better served on our infrastructure and in research to alternative power here. Especially in alternative power sources for cars.

Here's Jax under different water levels:
http://ss2.climatecentral.org/#11/30.3314/-81.6562?show=satellite&level=2&pois=show

[For_F-L-O-R-I-D-A]

And like all mankind we will adapt as needed but the doom and gloom stuff is what makes people not take it seriously. However, I don't think you can say flooding right now is a result of rising sea levels. Last time I checked, when I lived right on the water, it flooded pretty frequently with just hard summer thunderstorms. I think short lived flooding comes with the territory and always has since we started putting concrete all  over the place.

[finehoe]

I don't think you can say flooding right now is a result of rising sea levels.

"At the University of Miami's Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Brian McNoldy and other researchers have been accumulating sea level data from Virginia Key (a small island just south of Miami Beach) since 1996. Over those nineteen years, sea levels around the Miami coast have already gone up 3.7 inches."

http://www.wired.com/2015/02/rising-sea-levels-already-making-miamis-floods-worse/

"some cities already experiencing flooding up to four times more frequently than in 1970"

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article2564166.html

[finehoe]

I don't think we need to call it "the end of florida."

We don't think the end of Florida is inevitable, or even likely. But the end of Florida as we know it is certainly possible, and growing more likely every year as the state's once limitless future erodes along with the vanishing beaches and shrinking shoreline.

[jaxnative]

I will be glad to swap properties with someone who has beach front property comparable to mine.  I even have some land farther north at about 5100' elevation that I will sell at a sacrifice to save the doomed. 

I was reading an article on another of the agendized climate change sites popping up every day on all the major ISP's.  I don't remember who wrote the article but I jotted down a part of a comment on the story by someone who gave me a good chuckle:

"From one scientist to another, when someone tells me they are a climate "scientist", its like having a kid with a plastic Playskool tool belt telling you he's a master mechanic.  You have to humor them, pat them on the head, and give them a lollipop."

[bill]

I don't think you can say flooding right now is a result of rising sea levels.

"At the University of Miami's Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Brian McNoldy and other researchers have been accumulating sea level data from Virginia Key (a small island just south of Miami Beach) since 1996. Over those nineteen years, sea levels around the Miami coast have already gone up 3.7 inches."

http://www.wired.com/2015/02/rising-sea-levels-already-making-miamis-floods-worse/

"some cities already experiencing flooding up to four times more frequently than in 1970"

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article2564166.html

So if you actually look at the data, the last five years were the same as 95-2000. Where is the data showing the lack of Hurricanes are because of global warming/climate change/global cooling/ increase of breathing etc.

[coredumped]

Finehoe, you're just quoting the same wrong article. Doesn't change the facts.
It also says "possible." many things are possible, but not plausible.

[finehoe]

Finehoe, you're just quoting the same wrong article.

I quoted them because THEY AGREE WITH YOU.  I guess that makes you "wrong" as well.

I don't think we need to call it "the end of florida."

We don't think the end of Florida is inevitable, or even likely.

Doesn't change the facts.

No it doesn't.  And the facts are that it "flooded pretty frequently with just hard summer thunderstorms" but now it floods when the sun is shining and there is a high tide

I will be glad to swap properties with someone who has beach front property comparable to mine.  I even have some land farther north at about 5100' elevation that I will sell at a sacrifice to save the doomed. 

People live at higher elevations may think they aren't affected, but when salt water intrudes into their drinking water and their taxes go up to pay for the pumps at the coast, they just might change their tune.

[ChriswUfGator]

The reality is this state will have to spend billions on pumps and sea walls in certain areas to prepare for sea level rise over the next decade or two, and it isn't happening. We have an administration that won't even let employees of the DEP mention the term "climate change". This is troublesome, we're going to have serious infrastructure issues in our lifetimes as the result of stupid partisan politics. It's astonishing to me that there are people who not only aren't bothered by this, but actually defend it.

[UNFurbanist]

The funny thing about facts is that it doesn't really matter if you agree with them or not. If we keep it up, the seas will rise, the droughts will come and the millions of environmental refugees will need to find new homes regardless of your opinion. Just look at Bangladesh or the Maldives, people living there can tell you for a fact that climate change is real right now! http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/29/world/asia/facing-rising-seas-bangladesh-confronts-the-consequences-of-climate-change.html?_r=0

On the topic of scientists, its incredible to me how someone can sit there with literally no understanding of the topic and lecture about how these experts in the field don't know what they are talking about. These are NASA scientists (many of whom have worked under both republican and democratic administrations) that have decades of experience. While the skeptic back up is "well its not that much hotter outside then it was last year". I'm sorry but the global climate system that is Earth is much more complicated than that. They trust them when it comes to rockets, telescopes and rovers so why not climate? Is it because Fox (the fossil fuel industry) has not made this stuff controversial yet? The scientific method is the same regardless. And to those that might say there isn't actually consensus yet. Let me just say that those 3% of scientific outsiders out there are about the same 3% the tobacco industry bought a few decades ago to fight the idea that cigarettes cause cancer. In fact some of them are literally the same people. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/cif-green/2010/feb/19/climate-change-sceptics-science Tell me how you can be an expert in both cancer and climate? If you trust these guys and Fox over 97% of climate scientists then I'm sorry but there just isn't hope for you.

This is a topic that is very important to me so I'm sorry if I get a little heated but people need to be aware of this stuff. Especially because if we actually get our act together we can begin to change things before its too late. I would much rather not be one of those people that says we told you so 10-20 years from now. If you are a skeptic please just read over these sources and take a look at what the other side is saying. You'll notice these are all highly reputable sources. No liberal blogs, political sites or any of that. The full picture is important to have before forming an opinion.

Resources:
NASA climate info: http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
^check out this entire site.
Chief NASA scientist Dennis Bushnell visiting Jax: http://www.news4jax.com/news/sea-level-and-climate-change/33284314
^went to his talk at UNF and it was awesome. This guy was by far the smartest person I had ever met.
6th mass extinction: http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/biodiversity/elements_of_biodiversity/extinction_crisis/
Antarctic Ice melt:http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/05/15/this-antarctic-ice-shelf-could-collapse-by-2020-nasa-says/
Climate change and food security: http://www.globalchange.gov/sites/globalchange/files/Climate%20Change%20and%20Food%20Security%20Expert%20Stakeholder%20Mtg%20Summary%20%28Final%29.pdf
Climate change national security threat:https://www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks
Feedback loops:http://transitionvoice.com/2013/08/19-ways-climate-change-is-now-feeding-itself/
^This one is a blog but it is cited and I think it just gives a good quick example of how many unintended effects go into climate.
Just google it! There are a million more resources where these came from.

That's my 25 cents haha

[Rob68]

I understand that there are some banks not financing homes in the miami area over 30 yrs because they see the water rise too much to finance and insure.

[Dog Walker]

Ever heard of the canary-in-the-coal-mine?

We are lifelong birders.  In our lifetimes we have seen the breeding areas of tropical and sub-tropical birds move north.  Ring-necked doves, a tropical species, now out number Morning Doves in our urban neighborhoods.  Mockingbirds, the Florida State Bird, are now breeding in Maryland.

These are not migratory birds and they are not just the only species.

The same pattern is happening in the insect world.  Pine beetle populations have exploded in areas where winter cold used to kill them off.

Global Warming, Climate Change is real.  No matter what the cause we are going to have to deal with it.