Election 2015 Liveblog!

[edjax]

A co-worker just asked if it is possible to vote without going to their designated precinct. Is this possible?

Evidently, they'd like to vote but the job is requiring to send them in the opposite direction of where they live.

Per the SOE website, on Election Day you must vote in the precinct in which you live. 

[Bridges]

A co-worker just asked if it is possible to vote without going to their designated precinct. Is this possible?

Evidently, they'd like to vote but the job is requiring to send them in the opposite direction of where they live.

They must go to their precinct on election day. 

This is why early voting is so convenient.  Weekends, AND at any polling place you want. 

[Cheshire Cat]

A co-worker just asked if it is possible to vote without going to their designated precinct. Is this possible?

Evidently, they'd like to vote but the job is requiring to send them in the opposite direction of where they live.

They must go to their precinct on election day. 

This is why early voting is so convenient.  Weekends, AND at any polling place you want. 

Or they can go directly to the SOE office on Monroe.

[ben america]

I'm calling it the 3:330 spike. As I recall last election (Nov 2014) after 3:30 Dems begin to outperform whatever ground Republicans made up over lunch.

[thelakelander]

A co-worker just asked if it is possible to vote without going to their designated precinct. Is this possible?

Evidently, they'd like to vote but the job is requiring to send them in the opposite direction of where they live.

They must go to their precinct on election day. 

This is why early voting is so convenient.  Weekends, AND at any polling place you want. 

Or they can go directly to the SOE office on Monroe.

Thanks!

[Jax native]

Diane, CC

Thanks for the info.  I finally found it on this thread and it posted by you!  It's cool to keep up when you have a chance and know its been updated every 15 minutes or so.  I can't stay on twitter all day, so this is helpful for me and others who are interested in keeping up. 

On related note; Thank you again for all your posts from the last few months in reference to local candidates running for office, from mayor to all city council candidates, showing your research and each candidate's thoughts based on their statements or sites, to all of us.  It has been so helpful to have all this information at one place!  I have used your posts to go back and check web sites, etc. on candidates I'm interested in.  You were a giant assistance in all this!

[edjax]

So as of 3:40, the turnout by party is:

Dems: 28.8%
Reps:   31.4%
Oth:     13.4%

[Jax native]

Brown needs 50% + 1

Assuming that Brown vaguely gets all of the dems, (42%) he needs to pick up 8% of the total vote.

And that Curry leads Bishop among the republicans by 60% of the republican votes cast (43% of the total vote) leaving Curry with 28% of the total vote and Bishop with 15%

And that Bishop leads Alvin in the Independents (11% of the vote) by 65% to 20%....Leaving Bishop with an additional 7% of the vote and Alvin with 5 % of the total vote



That leaves Brown with 47% of the vote, Curry with 28% of the vote and Bishop with 22%

Of course there are other vote breakdowns and assumptions, leaving 8 possible outcomes, but most of them do not show a Brown 50% + 1 using the present turnout %

Stephen, Not to rain on any one's parade,but you stated "Assuming that Brown vaguely gets all of the dems,".......  Even on this blog and the great, brilliant writers who engage us all do not agree that Brown vaguely get all Dems.....I for one is a strong Democrat and voting Bishop.  I know many, many others who supported Brown 4 years ago, who are voting Bishop.  The assumption in the Mayor's race should go out the window.  I'm assuming we have NO idea how Dems vote until later tonight or tomorrow....

But, I am loving this thread and trying to keep up.  The information you are posting is valuable and fun.

[edjax]

Have a stupid question here.  Do people at the Beaches also vote for Mayor and At Large?  I know the Beaches has their own Representative on City Council, but if they elect their own Mayor for example in Neptune Beach, do they also vote for Jax Mayor and At Large seats?

[Cheshire Cat]

Diane, CC

Thanks for the info.  I finally found it on this thread and it posted by you!  It's cool to keep up when you have a chance and know its been updated every 15 minutes or so.  I can't stay on twitter all day, so this is helpful for me and others who are interested in keeping up. 

On related note; Thank you again for all your posts from the last few months in reference to local candidates running for office, from mayor to all city council candidates, showing your research and each candidate's thoughts based on their statements or sites, to all of us.  It has been so helpful to have all this information at one place!  I have used your posts to go back and check web sites, etc. on candidates I'm interested in.  You were a giant assistance in all this!

I so appreciate hearing this and am very pleased that the post have helped you during this election cycle. 

[Tacachale]

as of four o clock
total cast 148,093

Dems 67,005  = 45%
Repubs 64,621 =43%
Indies 16,467  =11%

The percentages are remaining remarkably consistent so far....

As my grandfather is fond of saying, just wait till 5, when the Republicans get out of work.

[Cheshire Cat]

Have a stupid question here.  Do people at the Beaches also vote for Mayor and At Large?  I know the Beaches has their own Representative on City Council, but if they elect their own Mayor for example in Neptune Beach, do they also vote for Jax Mayor and At Large seats?

Good question.  The beaches are all still Duval county so they vote for their local mayor and also for the mayor of Jacksonville.  The same holds true for Baldwin. 

[Cheshire Cat]

Brown needs 50% + 1

Assuming that Brown vaguely gets all of the dems, (42%) he needs to pick up 8% of the total vote.

And that Curry leads Bishop among the republicans by 60% of the republican votes cast (43% of the total vote) leaving Curry with 28% of the total vote and Bishop with 15%

And that Bishop leads Alvin in the Independents (11% of the vote) by 65% to 20%....Leaving Bishop with an additional 7% of the vote and Alvin with 5 % of the total vote



That leaves Brown with 47% of the vote, Curry with 28% of the vote and Bishop with 22%

Of course there are other vote breakdowns and assumptions, leaving 8 possible outcomes, but most of them do not show a Brown 50% + 1 using the present turnout %

Stephen, Not to rain on any one's parade,but you stated "Assuming that Brown vaguely gets all of the dems,".......  Even on this blog and the great, brilliant writers who engage us all do not agree that Brown vaguely get all Dems.....I for one is a strong Democrat and voting Bishop.  I know many, many others who supported Brown 4 years ago, who are voting Bishop.  The assumption in the Mayor's race should go out the window.  I'm assuming we have NO idea how Dems vote until later tonight or tomorrow....

But, I am loving this thread and trying to keep up.  The information you are posting is valuable and fun.

I posted the best model for brown in response to Glorias question. (which was why we only gave Brown a 1 in 8 chance of winning tonight)

And in the best model for Brown he gets 42% of the total vote, coming from democrats who are presently casting 45% of the total vote.

This sounds right to me as well.

[edjax]

Have a stupid question here.  Do people at the Beaches also vote for Mayor and At Large?  I know the Beaches has their own Representative on City Council, but if they elect their own Mayor for example in Neptune Beach, do they also vote for Jax Mayor and At Large seats?

Good question.  The beaches are all still Duval county so they vote for their local mayor and also for the mayor of Jacksonville.  The same holds true for Baldwin. 

Thanks!  Cool so they get to blame 2 mayors for screwing them around. Good deal.

[vicupstate]

Have a stupid question here.  Do people at the Beaches also vote for Mayor and At Large?  I know the Beaches has their own Representative on City Council, but if they elect their own Mayor for example in Neptune Beach, do they also vote for Jax Mayor and At Large seats?

Jacksonville Mayor Delaney actually lived in Neptune Beach.