2008 Atlantic hurricane season

[gatorback]

I just have one question. Why is it that tornados follow hurricanes?

[reednavy]

I just have one question. Why is it that tornados follow hurricanes?

The friction caused by a landfalling tropical systems winds hitting land. The atmosphere is already rotating, get a good thudnerstorm updraft to tap into it, and you can get quick spin ups.

Also, some models are taking Fay jsut offshore, stalling, then coming back by Friday, then landfalling again near Apalachicola. There's a catch, a few reliable models toss out 15 to 25 inches of rain total by Sunday!

Get the rafts!

[Driven1]

TS Fay has already killed 50 people.

huh??? i read a death toll of less than 15 - in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

[adamh0903]

ReedNavy, i guess you saw the CMC and GFS.....the GFS has been consistent with that run track for most of the day

[reednavy]

ReedNavy, i guess you saw the CMC and GFS.....the GFS has been consistent with that run track for most of the day

Sure have, and that is weather porn and scary as hell at the same time. Can we say Allison #2?

[chipwich]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/032224.shtml?5day?large#contents

This thing is beginning to look scary and potentially very damaging.  We may drenched in heavy rain for a week.

I take back anything I said about needing more rain.  If the rain comes at the expense of widespread flooding, then I for one don't want it.  Let's just hope for the best that Fay sweeps across our state quickly and goes on to provide some wetness relief to the mid-Atlantic states.

NOAA however seems to confirm what Reed and Adam are saying.  This storm may very well spin back around and stay with us for quite a while.

[gatorback]

50?  Yes, I think a bus with 40 or so on it in the DR got washed away.  Fay is just sitting there trying to develope. I want Fay to head east like right now.

[BridgeTroll]

[David]

Damn. Even tropical storms steer clear of Jacksonville.I swear, we have a hurricane shield around us.

[fsujax]

Yep. Pretty much. It's absolutley amazing. All this craziness from our local media and we may not even know a TS is anywhere near us!

[adamh0903]

Im not sure what you guys are seeing, the current forecast track brings Fay on shore near Jax as a tropical storm, and then moving VERY SLOWLY across north Florida.

Some models even have Fay moving slowly up the Atlantic coast for 24-48 hours and strengthen to just before hurricane force and then moving slowly across the jax area. These are also the same models that was building in the high pressure to north and forecasting a stall and turn to the west. So these models are not outliers they have handled the storm pretty well so far.

I am not a Fear caster, but I would not write this one off, probably not much in the way of wind, but the Rain could be devastating.

[gatorback]

You guys are getting a lot of rain.  If she stalls over jacksonville you guys could be wet for days.

[Lunican]

[Captain Zissou]

Gatorback, that bus you speak of turned out not to have had any deaths associated with it.  I read a correction on msnbc.com that said the original 30+ they claimed was incorrect.  They said two children may have died in the accident, however.

[David]

Im not sure what you guys are seeing, the current forecast track brings Fay on shore near Jax as a tropical storm, and then moving VERY SLOWLY across north Florida.

Some models even have Fay moving slowly up the Atlantic coast for 24-48 hours and strengthen to just before hurricane force and then moving slowly across the jax area. These are also the same models that was building in the high pressure to north and forecasting a stall and turn to the west. So these models are not outliers they have handled the storm pretty well so far.

I am not a Fear caster, but I would not write this one off, probably not much in the way of wind, but the Rain could be devastating.

Oh yeah I agree. There's definately no reason to write it off yet, but just seeing the main track of the storm swerve around Jacksonville is a good snapshot of most of the past storms. They usually have the 3-5 day forecast aimed straight at us, then after a few adjustments it's hitting well to our north or south. And even if we are directly in the projected path, it's usually from a west coast landfalling storm. By the time it tracks across most of Florida, they usually have little or no punch and the wind field has shrank considerably and it winds up being non stop rain with a gust here and there.

Plus, if it didn't strenghten rapidly in the warm Gulf waters, I'm assuming the slightly cooler Atlantic waters won't give it much steam either, unless there was some dryness or sheer I didn't take into account.