The Jacksonville Jaguars

[BridgeTroll]

https://www.bigcatcountry.com/2022/10/24/23421957/james-robinson-jacksonville-jaguars-trade-new-york-jets

[marcuscnelson]

Great points, Ken. Seems we can't really have both (in a satisfactory manner for what our market is), so it's probably better to invest in the thing that happens more often and can be more committed (long-term lease) than the single event that is on shaky ground anyway. It's definitely a tough decision though, and no wonder even the Jags seem to have punted it past the Curry admin. But maybe if we're lucky the schools will just make the choice for us anyway and save us the trouble.

The most realistic compromise I could see is somehow reconfiguring Daily's Place to contribute to the college gameday experience even if there aren't necessarily seats directly facing the bowl. Otherwise, there seems to be a growing consensus around reducing capacity to a more realistic number. That with a roof, some nicer concourses and better seats/suites should set up pretty nicely for a while.

I was mostly only opposed to Lot J because of the financials, so I wouldn't necessarily mind the idea of developing something there coming back. Would be nice if the city could just put out an RFP, either for individual quadrants or the whole lot, and see if Iguana has the best bid though. Preferably with some realistic numbers. Even if building a bunch of skyscrapers doesn't suit the market, a reasonably sized hotel, venue and some apartments shouldn't cost all that much, even with maybe the site work subsidized. Plus they'll have plenty more to work with once the fairgrounds are moved.

[jaxlongtimer]

It won't solve Georgia's concerns regarding recruiting, but, if we are focused just on the money, fewer seats for Fla-Ga could mean much higher ticket prices that could yield similar or greater payouts than presently, just as someone observed might be the case for the Jags.

FYI, I just looked up the capacity of Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta and found it seats 71,000, expandable to 75,000.  Sofi seats 70,240, expandable to 100,000.  AT&T Stadium seats 80,000, expandable to 100,000.  Superdome ranges from 67,500 to 83,000, depending on events.  Based on this, we could build a stadium for 60,000 +/-, expandable to 75,000 to 80,000, it would seem.  Cost of doing so would be the issue, of course, but we could then have our cake and eat it too.

[Ken_FSU]

FYI, I just looked up the capacity of Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta and found it seats 71,000, expandable to 75,000.  Sofi seats 70,240, expandable to 100,000.  AT&T Stadium seats 80,000, expandable to 100,000.  Superdome ranges from 67,500 to 83,000, depending on events.  Based on this, we could build a stadium for 60,000 +/-, expandable to 75,000 to 80,000, it would seem.  Cost of doing so would be the issue, of course, but we could then have our cake and eat it too.

We've got to be realistic with our investment.

Atlanta, Dallas, Los Angeles, and New Orleans have hosted nearly two dozen combined Super Bowls, including 10 in NOLA alone. They're international travel, tourism, and event hubs that have hosted the Olympics, World Cup, and some of the biggest championship games in NCAA history. Economically, it makes sense to allow for large expansion in those stadiums.

This coming stadium project is going to be a renovation, not a new stadium, and at best (see what's going on in Nashville) we should expect to get maybe 20 years out of our rebuilt stadium before it comes time to bulldoze and finally build a brand new stadium. Jacksonville is rapidly growing, but just walking around downtown and seeing how slow progress it, it's just not realistic to think we're going to be in that Miami/LA/Atlanta/Nashville/NOLA category just yet during the window of this next stadium's useful life.

Thus, we need to build a right-sized local-use first stadium this go-round. That doesn't preclude us from going after big college football games, they'll just have to live with a smaller capacity (which they will, if the details are right). 

I pull the same numbers every few years just because I find them so interesting, but here are the latest numbers I just pulled, inclusive of proposed new capacity for Buffalo, Nashville, and New Orleans (all of whom are slashing capacity with their new stadium projects).



Disregarding traveling regional fanbases and just looking at metro areas, Jacksonville is currently the fourth-smallest NFL market by metro population. NFL average is 4.7 million. We're sitting at 1.7 million. 14 cities, having an average population of 3.9 million each, have smaller NFL stadiums than us.

The average NFL stadium capacity is 1.5% of the size of its corresponding metro. We're at almost three times that, at 4.1%. This necessitates 1 in 24 Jaxons purchasing a ticket to a Jags game to fill the stadium, vs. a league-wide average of 1 out of every 68 locals.

Long way of saying the stadium doesn't have 15,000 empty seats because Jacksonville has a less supportive fanbase than other cities. It has 15,000 empty seats because our stadium size (and market size) puts a disproportionate amount of ticket obligation on each citizen relative other markets with smaller stadiums and larger metro populations. 67,000 isn't regularly sustainable in Jacksonville absent some goldilocks scenario where the team is on fire and we're playing teams that travel well.

But look what happens if you build at a more reasonable 55,000 and project a 10% population growth by decade's end when the new stadium nears completion.

We fall right into that sustainable, realistic, market-appropriate 2.9% capacity/metro size and 1 out of every 35 citizen zone that most of our sister cities already live in due to their right-sizes stadium sizes and market characteristics.



Will beat this drum till the day the stadium is built.

It's a fool's errand going higher than 57k at the most, and the creation of scarcity, demand, and a less depressing gameday experience will ultimately net out more revenue for everyone. It's not like those 10,000 empty seats are generating revenue to begin with.

And, of course, to the dismay of the anti-Jags folks, we'll also need to look for creative ways to offset local revenue differences versus other markets like Daily's Place and Lot J.

[marcuscnelson]

The Titans have conceptual renderings out of their new stadium:

[Ken_FSU]

^I kinda love it.

Blends in well with that neighborhood.

Isn't too monolithic.

In true Nashville fashion, features a huge rooftop bar.

Capacity is perfect for that market.

What do you think, Marcus???

[marcuscnelson]

^ For what appears to be a large box, they've made it look pretty nice. Not quite sure how I feel about the rather large stairs separating the building from street level, I'd be curious how crowd management works in that case. I'm also having a hard time clarifying whether the capacity is 57,000 or 60,000 for some reason. I'm not sure this feels like two billion dollars worth of investment, but I suppose there's a lot the renders don't necessarily make obvious.

One thing I'm wondering about, I see that in Nashville they're planning to build the new stadium next to the existing one, and I wonder how we would go about that in the 2040s-50s if we end up developing the area around the stadium. I could perhaps see the area on the other side of the Hart-MLK connector, but I don't know if they'd want to go back to being right next to industrial properties.

[Downtown Osprey]

Not to get totally off topic but I've lived in Nashville the last two years (actually moving back to Jax) and it's truly amazing how much this city has grown and continues to grow.

In many ways I would say Nashville is a peer city to Jax but in terms of downtown activity it's not even close. I wish Jax would have embraced it's roots as the birthplace of southern rock much like Nashville has done with country music.

[marcuscnelson]

Apparently all of the mayoral candidates are united against letting FL/GA go.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/sports/college/football/2022/10/26/jacksonville-mayor-candidates-support-keeping-georgia-florida-game/10523453002/

[jaxlongtimer]

Apparently all of the mayoral candidates are united against letting FL/GA go.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/sports/college/football/2022/10/26/jacksonville-mayor-candidates-support-keeping-georgia-florida-game/10523453002/

Of course!  This quote says it all :

Some might say it would be political suicide to come out against an event that brings an estimated economic impact of $33 million per year, according to Visit Jacksonville. Deegan said as much in her statement, when she said, "it is a no-brainer to keep it here going forward."

Article goes on to highlight it is probably the only "unifying" issue in the City.  That is sad.

[jaxlongtimer]

Buffalo Bills announce plans for new stadium:  60,000 seats (down from 70,000 now),  no dome, $1.4 billion, $850 million from NY state and Buffalo taxpayers, a new taxpayer stadium subsidy record.

The new stadium won't have a roof, but it will feature an inside bowl and stacked seating design to provide some protection from the winds and snowy winters western New York is accustomed to.

Bills operating chief Ron Raccuia told Buffalo Sports Radio WGR 550 Thursday that the canopy that surrounds the stadium will cover 65% of all seats in the stadium and will help mitigate wind for fans. They will have extensive radiant heating in place to make fans more comfortable.

"We think this is the most effective canopy and covers the most amount of people to do everything else we need to do," he said....

...The stadium has been a magnet for controversy, as well. In March, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul announced a $1.4 billion agreement for a 30-year lease. Of that, $850 million of the funding will come from state and county taxpayers – a record amount for a stadium. The deal drew widespread criticism....

....The new stadium will have 60,000 seats (about 10,000 less than Highmark) and 60 suites. The team's current lease goes until July 2023 and will have to be renewed until construction is complete on the new stadium....

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/27/buffalo-bills-unveil-first-design-images-of-their-new-1point4-billion-stadium.html

[marcuscnelson]

New interview with Khan in the Times-Union, including a bit about stadium reno that Lamping jumped in a bunch on.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/sports/columns/gene-frenette/2022/10/29/jaguars-owner-shad-khan-state-team-tiaa-bank-field-renovation-shahid-khan/10591988002/

What is less certain is what the future looks like for TIAA Bank Field, which will soon be without a significant renovation longer than any other NFL stadium. It's a distinction they share with the Buffalo Bills, whose new state-of-the-art stadium is scheduled to open in 2026.

The Tennessee Titans recently unveiled plans to build a new $2.1 billion enclosed stadium, also set for a 2026 opening. The Jaguars aren't quite ready to reveal their plan for a likely renovated stadium because they have yet to commit to a design or pinpoint the cost, expected to be in the $600 million-$1 billion range.

Lamping, the point man on formulating strategy and assessing the cost for the team's stadium plan, was careful not to put things in fast forward or guess on what the Jaguars might ask for in terms of taxpayer money.

"We've been working through that process," said Lamping. "We're getting to the point where we think we'll have some potential designs and potential prices on those designs within the next couple months probably. At that point, we might be in a position to assess whether we have a viable solution or we don't. We're confident going forward because our interest and the city's interest are aligned.

"The best way to describe it is we're going step by step. When you complete that step, then you determine if you're going to take the next step. You may get to a point where you don't take the next step. To have a discussion about that without knowing what's going to be built, what's the projected cost, what are the ancillary benefits of this new facility.

"We have a lot of confidence that we'll get through the process, but it's still step by step. To speculate as to when or what, I think it's premature."

Two years ago, Lamping made it publicly known that extending the Jaguars' lease beyond 2030, which requires three-quarters majority approval of NFL owners, wouldn't be possible without a renovated stadium.

He and Khan remain adamant that will only happen if there's a roof or some type of covering to shield fans from all the weather elements, especially the sun.

"Our fans are telling us that weather protection is a top element," Khan said. "So shade, but also [protection] from rain. To get use out of a publicly-owned stadium, you got to think beyond just the NFL games."

Lamping immediately jumped in when Khan finished his thought, adding that the covering for fans at the Miami Dolphins' Hard Rock Stadium isn't enough for Jacksonville.

"To have a [stadium] solution that doesn't put shade on all the seats, we'd be failing our fans," said Lamping. "Even the game against the [New York] Giants, I'm out walking the stadium the entire time. On a beautiful day like that, it was still incredibly hot on the east side of the stadium.

"As an aside, there's not shade on all seats at Hard Rock. The visiting side is incredibly hot. That Hard Rock solution wouldn't work for the Jaguars."

When it comes to stadium discussions, Khan and Lamping are consistently sensitive to not making it a Jaguars-only narrative.

They push the topic of how it might affect the Georgia-Florida game, as well as other events like concerts and other potential attractions for Jacksonville.

"Let's think bigger, as opposed to thinking smaller," Lamping said. "Why not an NCAA Final Four? Why not a college football [national] championship game? What about more concerts? All those things can happen if there's certainty, in the case of Florida with the weather.

"Certainty comes with making sure. . . . maybe having a roof. There's no reason why we shouldn't think big."

While a Final Four would seem unlikely for Jacksonville, which has only hosted first-round and second-round games on the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament, the Jaguars' brass is intent on planting the seed of changing the economic mindset when it comes to pursuing big sporting events.

"We know the college [football] playoffs are going to be expanding, that's inevitable," Khan said. "How about holding some of those playoff games? Use the stadium and its assets for more economic growth. That's how we'd be looking at it." 

Nothing about the stadium, at least when looking at events beyond the Jaguars, is bigger to the team than preserving the Georgia-Florida game tradition in Jacksonville. The Jaguars have not only been publicly vocal in their support but remain proactive in gauging interest from both schools in what they'd like to see happen with a renovated or new stadium.

"Whatever role the city and the universities want us to play, we'll play," said Lamping.

There's other stuff than that but I'll leave y'all to look at it.

[marcuscnelson]

New problem: throughout the day, a group of people kept displaying antisemitic messages around town, eventually projecting them on the stadium itself and downtown buildings.

Curry was initially somewhat dismissive of people being upset, and then seemed to realize that this could have implications on keeping the game and came back with a condemnation.

[thelakelander]

Talk about finding ways to lose. Another competitive game though.

[Snaketoz]

Another first round, pick first for the Jags?