Jerry Mallot's Top 10 List

[simms3]

Full article here:

http://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/showstory.php?Story_id=532799

Jacksonville outlook: Jerry Mallot
Executive vice president, Jacksonville Regional Chamber of Commerce
President, Cornerstone Regional Development Partnership

As Mallot offered his top 10, he also asked Johnson to join the chamber’s headquarters recruitment team, adding that such efforts also will need help from the state and that Jacksonville needs greater nonstop air service.

Mallot presented his top 10 predictions for the decade in reverse order.

10. Scott will be the most aggressive governor in job creation since Bush. “We’ve hit rock bottom and we’ve got to turn it around.”

9. The unemployment rate will drop below 5 percent by 2016 and it will be below 10 percent by December this year. “By 2016 we’re going to have a tight workforce and by 2018 we will be recruiting people,” he said.

8. A nuclear career will be located at Mayport Naval Station by 2020.

7. The financial services, professional and business services, logistics and medical services industries will lead employment growth. “You are going to see a booming economy in Northeast Florida in the next 12 months.” Jacksonville’s Real Gross Metro Product will soon match the peak it reached in the middle of the past decade and continue to rise, according to a University of Central Florida report.

6. Construction and real estate will boom by 2017. Also, office employees are increasingly telecommuting. “Ten to 30 percent who were in offices are working from home,” he said.

5. The Alliance Florida Center at Cecil Commerce Center will be a booming business park with more than 5 million square feet of space and other industrial parks will also be successful.

4. The Jacksonville Jaguars, who were announced in 1993 and began playing in 1995, will still be in Jacksonville and will have won a Super Bowl. Mallot said that’s what owner Wayne Weaver wants.

3. By 2020, Downtown will be the place for business and housing. “We have enormous commitment to redevelop Downtown,” he said. “It’s going to take real investment from the private sector and partnership with the public sector.”

2. The port of Jacksonville will be dredged to 48 feet.

And his No. 1 prediction?

“The Green Bay Packers will win the Super Bowl in 2011.”

Guys, what do you think about his list?

Can we say horrible timetable, weak outlook, nothing new, and slightly stupid?  He sounds excited about having a routine NE FL economy by 2020.  He thinks the entire river's shipping channel will be dredged to to 48 ft.!  5 million SF of space in Cecil Commerce Center?  I'll see it when I believe it.  Up to 30% of people working from home?  Eh, I'd say 10-15% max.  New carrier by 2020?  I believe that will happen, but I'll be starting to have grey hairs by then!  That doesn't inspire much confidence.

[Charles Hunter]

11.  Pink Unicorns will fly here from Venus and give us unlimited pollution free power!

[jandar]

Up to 30% of people working from home?  Eh, I'd say 10-15% max.

Considering Obama signed into law the Federal Telecommuting Initiative that will push US Government Agencies to offer telecommuting to its employees, there will be 10-15% of the workforce right there.

Over 30 million full time employees work from home at least once per month. That will continue to grow.

The one myth that holds back telecommuting, that employees will not be as effective working from home, is being kicked to the curb.
Amex, Cisco, Sun, AT&T, JD Edwards, those are just a few of the companies that have found that telecommuting employees are more productive than traditional employees. Cisco found that the time that workers normally commuted was paid back in time spent on work. 60% of the normal commute time was given back to the company in work.

With all of the green initiative and anti pollution push, telecommuting will take a frontline stand with that. There is less fossil fuel burning working from home than there is to commute everyday.

[Dog Walker]

Good Heavens!  I think I hurt myself laughing!  Bet he whistles happy tunes when he walks past a graveyard, too.

[thelakelander]

Considering Cecil eats up nearly half of the Westside, 5 million square feet of warehouse space isn't much over a decade long period.  Heck, there has to be at least 2 million now.  Bridgestone, alone covers 1 million.  In addition, I'd place my money on the local economy not being in a boom cycle by this time next year.

I also don't think downtown will be "the place" for business and housing by 2020 or ever again, especially if there's going to be a dramatic rise in telecommuting.  That doesn't mean it can't be a vibrant urban mixed-use district.  It's just going to have to evolve into a new creature that doesn't over rely on office jobs that are quickly disappearing.

[simms3]

Good Heavens!  I think I hurt myself laughing!  Bet he whistles happy tunes when he walks past a graveyard, too.

I don't think all of his tunes are so happy.  Most of his timetable is like a decade away.  That's encouraging!  

Also, Lake I can agree with you, but I'm at a wait and see with this new master developer of Cecil.  There are soooo many issues to work out at Cecil, first, and I just think that most of our industrial will continue to go to the more traditional parks.  I also agree that downtown may never be that office hub for Jacksonville again, but not because of more people working from home or telecommuting or taking non-traditional jobs.

Stephen and Jandar, working from home and telecommuting are trends that everyone is studying right now.  Some people (like you guys and plenty more) think it will be absolutely huge.  Some people (like me and also a ton of people involved in RE formally studying it) think it will be more involved than it is today, but will never take the place of the communal workplace.  I know a few grad students that are part of a project that has 30 companies as clients in New York to figure out how to evolve/update the workplace and use less space, but it's been widely agreed among at  least these 30 that they (major companies from Amex to Merrill Lynch) are not going to send most of their employees home to work.

[simms3]

Actually Stephen, I am out of school and for my own interests I took planning classes, but I was finance/accounting and I work in RE.  I don't see how I insulted your uber intelligence when I said there's a ton of people who feel your same way, but there's a ton of people ALSO in the field who still feel differently.  I guess we'll just have to wait and see who ends up being right.

[simms3]

Too complicated to get into.  Most people don't even realize the kind of liability one takes on by inviting business guests to their own home.  That's just one little thing.

In addition, RE holdings are also investment tools for just about any company.  The only entity I can think of that does not view RE as any sort of investment vehicle is the FDIC.

[simms3]

People still have to meet with each other.  If you work from home, you are probably having people over for business purposes at some point.  But like I said, that's not why imo traditional offices/business districts will remain the predominant place of business.

[Non-RedNeck Westsider]

Too complicated to get into.  Most people don't even realize the kind of liability one takes on by inviting business guests to their own home.  That's just one little thing.

In addition, RE holdings are also investment tools for just about any company.  The only entity I can think of that does not view RE as any sort of investment vehicle is the FDIC.

Just to raise a point:  Wouldn't the majority of professionals that invite 'business' guests into their homes are the same professionals that would have a dedicated office - typically with it's own entrance.  Lawyers, doctors, architects - all of these come to mind, and all of these types of people are also heads of their own personal corporations in most cases, and are required to carry commercial liablitiy which would insure a guest if they were injured on the property.  Also since they are more than likely an S-corp or the like (def. not an llc), their assets outside of the business wouldn't be tied to them, therefore their house wouldn't be in danger if someone tripped coming up the walkway.

[Non-RedNeck Westsider]

My other point was that your typical software engineer that tele-commutes isn't going to be inviting people over.  They'll make the trek to the office if they need to be physically face to face with someone.

[thelakelander]

For point of reference, neither Lake nor Steve share my point of view about the matter, nor did Lunican initially, although he may have had reason to change his mind on the subject.

My view still is the same in that it really depends on the type of position you're working in.  With the need to collaborate with others, lay out large documents, etc.  I don't see the majority of those employeed in architectural, engineering and planning related fields telecommuting anytime soon and especially not by 2020.

[Non-RedNeck Westsider]

My view still is the same in that it really depends on the type of position you're working in.  With the need to collaborate with others, lay out large documents, etc.  I don't see the majority of those employeed in architectural, engineering and planning related fields telecommuting anytime soon and especially not by 2020.

How many times a day do you already mark-up a set of drawings and e-mail them across the street?

[thelakelander]

People still have to meet with each other.  If you work from home, you are probably having people over for business purposes at some point.  But like I said, that's not why imo traditional offices/business districts will remain the predominant place of business.

None of the people I mentioned in my personal life ever have business meetings of any kind at their homes.  I can foresee things working like they do in Athens, Greece.

No one meets at offices.  Instead almost all business meetings of any import are held in hotel restaurants and lobbies.

I am interested in your train of thought though.

I get your point about face to face interaction.

We still meet in offices.  I have a few scheduled next week.  When I worked out of my condo, I would meet people at a Panera, Starbucks or at their office.  Office space won't be going away.  However, it will shrink and envolve into a new product.

[thelakelander]

How many times a day do you already mark-up a set of drawings and e-mail them across the street?

I'm in transportation planning now.  I conduct presentations moreso than send emails.  When I worked in architecture, not much was emailed out. However, my desk was full of 30"x42" design and construction documents for various projects.  We routinely collaborated with our team of co-workers and architects to ensure that projects were throughly vetted from a variety of professional resources and concepts.  Completed sets of construction documents have to be printed large scale for permitting and most clients/contractors don't have plotters, so emailing final deliverables were not ideal. Since we also developed graphics, we had/needed space to print and prepare large scale finished products.