Jax: A Top 25 Hottest Housing Market

[jaxlongtimer]

Jacksonville just cracked this list at #25 of Top 25 Housing Markets for 2021 by Realtor.com:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-the-top-housing-market-in-the-country-heading-into-2021-hint-its-not-san-francisco-11607352356

Other Florida markets on the list are Sarasota (#17), Melbourne (#19), Tampa/St. Pete (#20) and Orlando (#21).

#1 is Sacramento, CA, benefiting from a work-from-home tech exodus from high priced San Francisco (2 hours away) and being a stable state capitol.

[marcuscnelson]

I think this is mostly propelled by home sales in St. Johns County next door, rather than Jacksonville proper. Although, it's entirely possible that as the half-cents start rolling in and the plan to improve DCPS takes effect, we'll start seeing more movement into Jacksonville itself.

[jaxlongtimer]

I think this is mostly propelled by home sales in St. Johns County next door, rather than Jacksonville proper. Although, it's entirely possible that as the half-cents start rolling in and the plan to improve DCPS takes effect, we'll start seeing more movement into Jacksonville itself.

St. Johns is hot but so are our beaches, San Marco, Riverside, and Springfield from what I hear.  I just spoke with someone who bought a house in Mandarin this summer and they said there were 4 or more offers the day it was listed.  This was after they had made multiple offers on other Mandarin homes and were outbid.  They lucked out on this house when the seller called them after the first accepted offer failed to get financing.

I know of some others who have had the same experience in Duval County, such as between Downtown and the beaches or St. Johns County line.  With record low interest rates and many northerners now looking to Florida, including the Jacksonville area per Realtors I have spoken with, I think most all areas are benefiting right now although Nassau and St. Johns might be a few degrees hotter.

"Entry level" houses under $300,000 seem to be the hottest price range of all as aging millennials (one article said they outnumber baby boomers in numbers by 2 to 1 so a huge demographic) wish to start families.  Many are projecting that demand will outstrip supply for years to come. 

[thelakelander]

Apartments continue to sprout up like wild flowers in Downtown, Southside, East Baymeadows and Bartram Park/Flagler Center, etc. Jax is getting its fair share of growth. It's just a bit more cultural diverse and dense, when compared to the new growth taking place in the surrounding counties.

[BridgeTroll]

Plenty of action in suburbia too...

[bl8jaxnative]

"Entry level" houses under $300,000 seem to be the hottest price range of all as aging millennials (one article said they outnumber baby boomers in numbers by 2 to 1 so a huge demographic) wish to start families.  Many are projecting that demand will outstrip supply for years to come.

There's about a few million more millenials than boomers. 

The majority of boomers will have retired by.... well, really soon.  Could be now but probably 2023-ish.


I don't doubt that there will be demand for years driven by demographics.   I'm more curious how things shake out once all those boomers start dieing and their SFHs go onto the market.

[jaxlongtimer]

"Entry level" houses under $300,000 seem to be the hottest price range of all as aging millennials (one article said they outnumber baby boomers in numbers by 2 to 1 so a huge demographic) wish to start families.  Many are projecting that demand will outstrip supply for years to come.

There's about a few million more millennials than boomers. 

The majority of boomers will have retired by.... well, really soon.  Could be now but probably 2023-ish.


I don't doubt that there will be demand for years driven by demographics.   I'm more curious how things shake out once all those boomers start dying and their SFHs go onto the market.

Given our multi-century growing population trend of both the US and globally, I would expect that there will continue to be ever larger numbers of people looking for housing to replace those among us perishing  .  With that, I am more concerned with my own prospects more than those of the housing market!  LOL.

[jaxlongtimer]

Looks like the region's local housing market is on fire through November:

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/residential-real-estate-inventory-hits-2020-low-point

[Fallen Buckeye]

I live on the westside, and a surprising number of new developments have been popping up in 200's. Even in established neighborhoods like Hyde Park, individual lots that have sat empty for years are being built up.

I actually work for a real estate marketing company, and I've been doing a nationwide survey of real estate agents for the last month. Low housing inventory is definitely the top concern among agents even more so than Covid.

[Lunican]

"Entry level" houses under $300,000 seem to be the hottest price range of all as aging millennials (one article said they outnumber baby boomers in numbers by 2 to 1 so a huge demographic) wish to start families.  Many are projecting that demand will outstrip supply for years to come.

There's about a few million more millennials than boomers. 

The majority of boomers will have retired by.... well, really soon.  Could be now but probably 2023-ish.


I don't doubt that there will be demand for years driven by demographics.   I'm more curious how things shake out once all those boomers start dying and their SFHs go onto the market.

Given our multi-century growing population trend of both the US and globally, I would expect that there will continue to be ever larger numbers of people looking for housing to replace those among us perishing  .  With that, I am more concerned with my own prospects more than those of the housing market!  LOL.

Hard to believe but within 20 years most baby boomers will be gone.

[FlaBoy]

Florida is booming and it seems like covid, work from home and corresponding regulations are just speeding up the exodus of businesses and people to places like Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, the Carolinas, Arizona and Texas.

[bl8jaxnative]

Given our multi-century growing population trend of both the US and globally, I would expect that there will continue to be ever larger numbers of people looking for housing to replace those among us perishing  . 

With all due respect, that's not a thing.  That growth is driven by demographics.  Specially 18-35 years olds because they're the ones have kids.

The western world is falling off a demographic cliff that can't be undone.  Heck, most of the world is treading water and even on the path to shrink.     It's increasingly looking like the world ill hit  peak people ( think peak oil ) in a generation or two.


BTW - China or Brasil is already older than the US.  The other is about to be soon, too.  I can't remember which off the top of my head. Those demo graphical imbalances are going to cause huge problems especially for china.

[BridgeTroll]

Excerpt from a really interesting article...

https://quillette.com/2020/12/11/the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it/

To say the geopolitical and economic consequences of this fact will be profound is an understatement. The Gates research further darkens the already bleak picture painted last year by two Canadian researchers, Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson, in their insightful and carefully documented book, Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline. They warn:

The great defining event of the twenty-first century—one of the great defining events in human history—will occur in three decades, give or take, when the global population starts to decline. Once that decline begins, it will never end. We do not face the challenge of a population bomb, but of a population bust—a relentless, generation-after-generation culling of the human herd. [emphasis added]

The Gates scholars agree with the Empty Planet scenario, marking 2064 as humanity's demographic high-water mark at just 9.73 billion human souls, short of the long predicted 10 billion. Academic demographers are not given to hyperbole. The unsustainability at work here is extreme. The Gates team explains:

The number of global citizens under five years of age will fall from 681 million in 2017 to 401 million in 2100, a 41 percent drop.
The number of over 80-year-olds will soar from 141 million in 2017 to 866 million in 2100, a whopping 514 percent increase.

[jaxlongtimer]

^ I understand that fewer younger people will be "supporting" greater numbers of older people.  I won't be around in 2100 unless they solve the aging process but I am going to project that technology will help solve this concern.  It's also possible, with improved medicine, that people remain productive later into their lives as we have already seen in modern times.

Aside from that, I am not sure a declining population is all that bad.  It's clear that too many people are causing a major degradation of our environment, especially as expanding populations have demanded more food, energy and land for housing while producing ever increasing piles of waste.  Nowhere is this more apparent than in the destruction of the Brazilian rain forest.  Our planet has only so much capacity to support our way of life, whatever that limit is.  So it is inevitable that population will begin to decline at some point.  The only question is when and how - by voluntary and controlled steps or involuntarily, by a catastrophic crossing over the line (could that be global warming or some other irreversible damage to the planet?). 

[BridgeTroll]

Soooo... you didn't read the article....