The Economy. As the Collapse Continues, Maybe Jacksonville Can Get It Right?

[stephendare]

The economic depression will deepen this fall.  There are several factors that make this unescapable and the results will create a feedback process that will have visible and fairly destructive effects throughout the city.

The simple fallout from people who are at the end of their unemployment checks, and the surge of bankruptcies which is about to flood the united states in general and here in florida particularly will be like experiencing a second financial crisis for the public.  It probably won't get the attention that the liquidity crisis got last year on wall street, since none of the uberwealthy will bear the brunt of it, but it will be like a clusterbomb on the middle class.

When a person declares bankruptcy, all of their debts that are not collateralized pretty much go away.  While the Bankruptcy reform bill favors the filing of chapter 13 plans (or partial payback plans) based on means, the nature of recession based Bankruptcies leaves most of the applicants with no means, and therefore elgible for what is called a Chapter 7 bankruptcy-- in which nothing except secured debts are even considered for disposition.  A secured debt, obviously would mean things like cars and houses for most people.  All other debts, loans, credit cards etx are discharged.  The credit card companies know this is about to happen because of the statistical data showing the gigantic increase in the use of credit transactions to pay bills and buy groceries---this is usually a sign that the cardholder is running completely on credit because of lack of positive income.  This is also why the credit cards have all jacked up their interest rates to the .omfg % rates.  They are simply saving up capital to deal with the massive expected defaults.

With less consumer spending as a result (think about it...even for people who arent declaring bankruptcy, if you are doing the majority of your spending on a credit card, when the interest rates jumped up from 5% to 22%, suddenly everything began to cost effectively 17% more, once you paid your bill.   The income you would have been spending on merchants and local businesses is now being sent to arkansas and manhattan to pay those interest rates.) there will be more small businesses closing and fewer people with the money to open up new businesses.  Again, during the boom, a large percentage of people funded small business startups with multiple credit card advances.

This will have immediately visible results:

First will be the collapse and then the boarding up and abandonment of the more recently constructed as well as the more marginal retail districts.

For an example of how this will shape up, simply take a drive down Southside Boulevard from Regency Square to Mall of the Avenues.

This happened in the Bush Sr Recession of the early 90s.  Arlington never recovered from the shock, nor did the remnants of the old atlantic boulevard/university district.  Orange Park shuttered up and began the closings, and Baymeadows lost the swank and cachet that it once had and became a bit of a trashy strippy area.  Downtown pretty much went down in flames.

This has the effect of inhibiting the improvement or maintenance of the neighborhoods.  A phenomenon that will increase exponentially as a result of the unfinished and badly financed housing stock that defaulted and now lies empty in areas like nocatee--recently featured on the cover of Folio.

Florida has some built in protections that might keep us from the catastrophic abandonment that is crippling other parts of the country, most importantly the homestead exemptions that are operative in all of our civil processes.  (aren't ya glad that the National Republicans didn't have their way when they wanted these repealed when they were in power?) but this will still be a problem because of all the second home investors who will lose their properties in foreclosure auctions.

Traffic will lessen to these areas, further depressing the value of any commercial leases.  (as Springfield has proven, unless there is foot traffic, people arent willing to pay much for shop space)

Public Safety and services will be scaled back as well.  For a view of the impact this kind of scaling back has on an area, visit north main street, West Beaver Street through the Woodstock area and Dennis Street between downtown and Riverside.  (Lake, Lunican do we have any photos of this area?)

As a result, by next year, whole areas of town will be feeling the full effects of the depression and experiencing property value devaluation worse than anything in living memory.  This will happen even while there will be the first signs of recovery on a national basis. 

There will also be a few success stories along the way.

The last recession can be considered the true beginnings of the resurgence of the urban core.  The Davis Family invested in San marco and Avondale, and the shutdowns of retail and entertainment options in the suburbs like baymeadows, arlington, and orange park brought thousands of customers to the Five Points and Riverside areas.  Many of those kids also ended up migrating into the downtown to places like Milk Bar, Moto Lounge, Metropolis, and several others.  That group of people ended up being the core of the urban pioneers who came back downtown with businesses and homes of their own in the late 90s and early 200s.

Similar things happened across the country, and the 2000s brought an influx of Gen X inhabitants and customers back into the historic districts and urban areas of cities all over the nation.

Where Jacksonville made their mistake, I think is that unlike areas that we have covered exhaustively in our learning from and comparison articles, we did not take advantage of the High in order to roll out the infrastructure projects and urbanist ideas that made even places like charlotte and nashville leap ahead of us in terms of development and governing efficiency.  Instead, we just kept right on sprawling.

But maybe this time we can take advantage of the downturn and get it right.

Leave the collapsed Edge Cities alone.  Let them go.   Stop infrastructureing the exurbs.   Build solid, development encouraging rail transit that directs where the new housing and development happens because of the access to transportation.

Maybe we can concentrate on rebuilding an easily administered, efficiently laid out city that doesnt waste trillions of dollars in the combined Federal/State/City tax money just to keep running.

I say, let the entire southside set of edge city development go.

Forget about the outer beltway.  Use that money and build comprehensive rail.

Clear the ruins and broken buildings in the core city and encourage all new building projects to happen there.

Institute heavy permitting fees that bring development outside of density corridors.

Convert our rural county area back to productive rural areas, let nature take back its own and green it up.

Rebuild a sense of our heritage and history by building monuments to it in the core city.

Create volunteer corps to clean up and repair the neglect all the way throughout our historic districts.

Maybe this is a second chance.

Stephen Dare.

[redglittercoffin]

In one of my more lucid moments recently, I was thinking about the premise of this topic, Stephen.  I hope you are right.  My line of thought was something along the lines of:

okay, if we can get past this budget mess right now -- keep status quo for one more year -- living on the cheap in Jacksonville -- with an eye towards new leadership in Jacksonville -- perhaps we (as a city of voices) can have a real discussion on where we are headed.  There have been so many "master plans", urban renewal projects, initiatives, promises, visits to the oracle over the past 40 years.  Perhaps now Jacksonville can start to come together with one cohesive voice and TELL government what it wants.  I would love to see a real vision statement for Jacksonville.  HOW are we going to make Jacksonville great.  Explain the symbiosis between public and private.  Explain how shared values will be lifted up and protected.  Then -- and this is a big "then" -- THEN we can talk about what it is going to cost.  I think this will require a great deal of catharsis on the part of the public and private interests in the city, but with a strong and vocal public, it is something that can be achieved. 

I think the lack of homogeneity will make this difficult, but will ultimately prove to be one of the greatest assets this city has in moving forward.  In the relative short amount of time I have lived here, I have always felt that Jacksonville has such great potential, but has truly lacked the leadership necessary to drive forward.  What is NOT needed is a leader with a set plan, but rather a leader who will draw together the shared interests of the diverse interests of all the neighborhoods of Jacksonville (Riverside, Southside, Mandarin, Urban Core, Northside, etc.).  We need a charismatic and competent leader who will be able to listen, synthesize, and then put together a plan that addresses those shared interests or values.  This needs to be a vision that transcends changes in political administrations.  It needs to be something that we hold our political leaders accountable to -- not vice versa.

I know -- I am talking with a lot of "head in the clouds" rhetoric, but I think there needs to be a fundamental paradigm shift.  Jacksonville can no longer afford to make excuses for itself.  Don't get me wrong, I love seeing the pics of old time downtown Jacksonville, and the visions set forth in master plans of days gone by.  However, they should be put into a museum, not dragged out so that we can lament on the "only if we..." conversations. 

Today is square one.  It's time to decide where we want to go.  Set the course.  Get there.  All else be damned. 

[gmpalmer]

Excellent thoughts, Stephen

BUT

Who has the money to fund this and how can they benefit?

[BridgeTroll]

I agree!  Welcome aboard redglittercoffin... it is not often we get a "first post" such as yours!  We hope to hear more!

[Gen7]

Below is a comment I had submitted previously -- is this on the right track?

Gen7
July 30, 2009, 04:09:08 PM

In reading the public e-mail boxes on the property tax debate, many people have voiced a willingness to pay more, just not in the form of property tax.  They want it spread around to renters and visitors, etc.  Since it is less efficient and more costly to provide services to the suburbs, perhaps an "Extended Service Fee" could be instituted.  Define the center of the county and create ever widening circles.  Homes, renters (not landlords), businesses (each storefront), non-profits all pay a flat fee depending on how far out they are from the center, 5 to 10 miles, 10 to 15 miles, 15 to 20 miles.  The inner circle, 0 to 5 miles, would be the "Redevelopment Zone" and would not pay the fee.  However, there would be a .01 sales tax in the "Redevelopment Zone" for capital improvements and mass transit (streetcars!).   Add to that permitting penalties or a moratorium on development in the suburbs and property tax incentives in the "Redevelopment Zone" (i.e. freeze property values for a time on new development) and perhaps people and businesses would be incentivized to return downtown. 

[Gen7]

Dense as in housing units or dense as in population? The areas that need to be revitalized currently don't have a very dense population - although the end goal would be to create more density closer to the core.  I think this would have an additional crime-reducing effect as well. 

[BridgeTroll]

Perhaps you could start with the original city limits prior to consolidation as the zero point or center.  Add the rings around this center for the additional fees.  Concentric rings probably would not work but some kind of bands based on distance.  You could rebate fees in areas of those outside rings where density rises above a certain point... condos apartment complexes etc.

$.02

[redglittercoffin]

Redglittercoffin.

Man (or woman),

Man -

You make great points.

Thanks a ton.  

How would you suggest we do this?

This is obviously the million dollar question.  There are a number of factors that come into play.  Off the top of my head, the most important considerations are timing, who leads the initiative, and how.

From a timing perspective:
I think a little time needs to pass for the emotions of this current budget discussion pass.  I think we need to have some distance from this discussion and also to see what it is like to live with no real vision of the future, but just to get to tomorrow.  Admittedly, I don't have the election cycles (spring and fall) memorized, but some time too that is unencumbered with political rhetoric as well.  

who leads the discussion:
This is MUST be done right -- and unfortunately, I don't have a good answer.  Should it be an organization?  Should it be a person?  Should it be an entity tied loosely or tightly with city government?  ...or some mix of all of the above?  I would hate to see the process spoiled by politicians, but I cannot think of a value proposition by which to take to either an individual/organization/group of organizations that would make them want to take the reigns of leading an endeavor like this -- aside from some higher civic calling.  Thinking out loud, I think it would be great to have the Chamber combine resources with some non-profits.  

How:
Again, thinking out loud -- I would present this as an opportunity to create a list of issues and/or services, perhaps as many as 50 "things" -- put it up on a webpage with sliding scales of importance -- and let people vote.  I would ultimately like to see the City promote discussion through this mechanism.  Hopefully there would be a groundswell of op ionions beyond just sliding scales that would also come out through discussions in regional chamber meetings, churches, letters to the editor, etc. that would also be heard loud and clear.  Ultimately, you would end up with great narratives, as well as some quantifiable data  from the sliding scale webpage that could help drive it.  

Then it would be up to City Council and the Mayor to begin to synthesize all of this into a vision.  Create a real vision statement for Jacksonville.  I know I know -- it would take more political courage than most of our current leaders have, but -- thinking without limitations here.  

Ultimately then, some grassroots mechanism would hopefully rise up to present some sort of scorecard on how well City leaders (and hell -- even private organizations) are holding to the vision.  

Again, pie in the sky thoughts.  But hell, we've got to start somewhere.  

This is all very near and dear to me as a businessperson by nature.  Many people overlook vision statements of companies, but I hold them true.  The mission is what we do.  The vision is how we do it.  The values are what we believe in that drive both the vision and the mission.

[heights unknown]

I hope and pray you're wrong Stephendare; where do you get this info that you posted in this thread?  Personal research and acquisition of info from various creditable business, financial, and news sources, references and resources? 

I think North Florida and Jax are doing much better than the State and the Nation, so there could be some truth to the fact that North Florida (which includes Jax) might get it right while the rest of the State and some of the nation collapses (again, hope I am wrong and others are wrong).

Heights Unknown

[Burn to Shine]

RGC - you're the man (but certainly NOT The Man).   

[Ocklawaha]

Are we ready for this? We better be!

Welcome to the site from the resident smart ass.

author=redglittercoffin link=topic=5495.msg96631#msg96631 date=1252695955
From a timing perspective:
I think a little time needs to pass for the emotions of this current budget discussion pass. I think we need to have some distance from this discussion and also to see what it is like to live with no real vision of the future, but just to get to tomorrow.  Admittedly, I don't have the election cycles (spring and fall) memorized, but some time too that is unencumbered with political rhetoric as well.

Hell's bells man, we've been doing this for the last 50 years!

Then it would be up to City Council and the Mayor to begin to synthesize all of this into a vision.  Create a real vision statement for Jacksonville.  I know I know -- it would take more political courage than most of our current leaders have, but -- thinking without limitations here. 

A vision statement? Ever study history? Ever hear of DAI NIPPON! Might I suggest we use DAI JACKSONVILLE! Everyone else can kiss it...


We were once THE GATEWAY CITY, the railroad entry of Florida... Guess what? We are about to assume that position again by default (and a little extra effort on the part of a certain tight group). Currently Amtrak spends $1.3 MILLION dollars yearly on fuel, food and supplies for the TWO trains. That's going to change x3/4 by Nov. 2012. Imagine that hitting downtown, 4x the employees, station staff, car washer, service techs, etc. Jacksonville Terminal anyone?

As I've been saying, watch for us to shortly terminate and originate Amtraks: PALMETTO - NYC-JAX, GULF WIND - MSY-JAX, SILVER METEOR, NYC-JAX, SILVER STAR- NYC-JAX, PLUS two new sections of two of the trains which may carry their own names, "Champion", "Flagler"?

To meet those trains, we should form a rapid transit tax district for anything within a 1/4 mile radius of Streetcar, Skyway, Amtrak, Commuter Rail, and BRT.

My .02

Otherwise, have the National Park Service blow down whats left of our city, mount a few Cannons, and turn the whole deserted thing into another Battlefield Park.  Hey? It's a thought!


DOWNTOWN? YES!


OCKLAWAHA

[mtraininjax]

Stephen - All I can say is that wow, you could kill some trees with all those words.....