Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast

[Lunican]

Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast
Catastrophic shortfalls threaten economic recovery, says world's top energy economist

The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple a global economic recovery because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production, a leading energy economist has warned.

Higher oil prices brought on by a rapid increase in demand and a stagnation, or even decline, in supply could blow any recovery off course, said Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, which is charged with the task of assessing future energy supplies by OECD countries.

In an interview with The Independent, Dr Birol said that the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years â€" at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated.

But the first detailed assessment of more than 800 oil fields in the world, covering three quarters of global reserves, has found that most of the biggest fields have already peaked and that the rate of decline in oil production is now running at nearly twice the pace as calculated just two years ago. On top of this, there is a problem of chronic under-investment by oil-producing countries, a feature that is set to result in an "oil crunch" within the next five years which will jeopardise any hope of a recovery from the present global economic recession, he said.

Full article:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/warning-oil-supplies-are-running-out-fast-1766585.html

[BridgeTroll]

Thanks for posting this Lunican.  I was going to yesterday but decided I would simply be painted as an "Its all about oil" kinda guy.  This article makes the point that it IS "all about oil" now and for the forseeable future.  Peak oil production estimates vary but it could be as soon as 2020-30 or much later.  It is important to begin the weaning process... but for now... it is... all about oil.  This is why it is extremely important for the United States to protect the oil reserves from those who would deny the world the supply of oil needed.  Iraq threatened the worlds supply resulting in the first gulf war and Saddams continued belligerence against neighbors in the region (oil producers) was a major factor in his removal.  Oil is the major reason Iran is the thorn that it is.  Iran continuously threatens to close the Straights of Hormuz cutting the vast majority of oil flowing from the region.

Most people, including myself endorse and encourage the development of alternative energies but until a cost effective alternative is found... or ... the oil runs out... it is... all about oil.

[heights unknown]

I don't believe this bull hockey for one minute.  Just another excuse to raise prices and stuff their pockets with extra money.

Heights Unknown

[Captain Zissou]

Call it good or bad, but Oil prices are very volatile right now and respond quickly and dramatically to any news of increased consumption or decreased production.  Stockpiles have increased significantly in the past 6 months and at one point threatened to overflow storage capacity.  Oil is currently testing $70 a barrel, and  I think remain here through the winter.  Next summer could bring an increase, but I don't think we will approach the $140+ level for some time.

[BridgeTroll]

More data...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

[tufsu1]

I don't believe this bull hockey for one minute.  Just another excuse to raise prices and stuff their pockets with extra money.

Heights Unknown

Peak oil supply is a real thing....it doesn't mean that we will run out anytime soon, just that they will max. out at a certain # of gallons per day....and if demand keeps increasing (see India and China), it will outpace supply, driving prices much higher. 

[BridgeTroll]

EXACTLY!  The is the very reason we should explore ALL of our very own oil deposits we can within the good ol US of A.  ANWAR should be explored immediately... offshore reserves should be explore as soon as possible.

All the while developing the alternatives that will be required at some point...

[Ocklawaha]

Imagine running out of oil and us getting into a life and death struggle (WAR) with much of the rest of the world. This is not entirely an impossible situation. Now imagine that we ration oil and gas and in the last great efforts to save ourselves only have enough oil for our sailors and pilots to fly one-way missions to the enemy targets. Horror of horrors, it has already happened once. You see there really was a reason to crash onto an American ship. The photo is the Imperial Japanese Navy Battle Ship Yamato, largest and most powerful battleship ever built. Her last mission was to try and run from the home islands to Okinawa where the American invasion was winning the day. The plan sounded insane, even the ships commanders and crew knew the folly of it. Beach the biggest ship in the world and use her massive guns to beat the Americans back. No air cover (no fuel) led to early detection. She absorbed some 40 torpedo's, rockets, 500 and 1,000 pound bombs before she finally healed over and sank. A Nation without oil would surrender within days... Without the fuel, it was REALLY over! In some form or other, what goes around comes around, we better be smart.

OCKLAWAHA

[Seraphs]

This same old subject surfaces every so often.  I don't buy it.

[urbanlibertarian]

Experts always seem to see dark clouds on the horizon.  Reason.com's Ronald Bailey posted an article today about the National Academy of Science's new report "America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation" and their 1980 report "Energy in Transition, 1985 to 2010".  He notes:

"The 1980 report offered six scenarios for calculating the hypothetical total primary energy use for a country with a population of 280 million in 2010. The scenarios ranged from "very aggressive" federal policies aimed at reducing energy demand paired with quadrupled energy prices and 2 percent annual growth; to moderate with doubled energy prices and 2 or 3 percent economic growth; to essentially unchanged 1975 policies, stable or decreasing energy prices, and 2 percent growth.

So how well did the NAS foresee America's energy future back in 1980? Well, for starters, energy prices did not quadruple or even double over the past 30 years.

    * According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the real price of electricity in 1975 was 9.2 cents per kilowatt hour (in 2000 dollars) and it was 9.28 cents per kilowatt hour in 2008.
    * In real dollars a barrel of oil cost $48 in 1975. In 2009, the price has so far averaged $43 per barrel.
    * In real dollars, a gallon of regular gasoline averaged $2.21 in 1975 and in August 2009, the EIA reported that regular gas was going for an average of $2.51 per gallon.


And the good news is that the U.S. economy grew at slightly more than 3 percent per year on average since 1985â€"not the pessimistic 2 percent rate envisioned in five of the six scenarios considered in 1980."

Whole article: http://reason.com/news/show/135213.html

[Ocklawaha]

This same old subject surfaces every so often.  I don't buy it.

Neither did Yamamoto, Nagumo, Suzuki, Ozawa, Honda, Yamashita, Toyoda, or Tojo


OCKLAWAHA

[tufsu1]

This same old subject surfaces every so often.  I don't buy it.

fine..but what if you're wrong?

I'd sure like to plan for the potential future...either go find some more oil or begin transforming to more renewable energy sources.

[JeffreyS]

Maybe it would be in our best interest to lower our dependence on oil. Even if it is a lie we still do not need to send so much money to foreign lands many who do not share our interests. So no more "hey a bird might fly into that wind mill" or Nuclear power is for the French or even it's my right to have a hummer that gets 6mpg. Let's put our own interests first. Let's diversify and become more efficient.  

[BridgeTroll]

I agree 100%.  Lowering our dependence on oil however will not end our dependence on it in the forseeable future.  The amount of oil available for purchase will decrease as time goes on... be it from "peak oil" or increased consumption from developing countries.  This country is still a leading producer of oil and we still have large reserves of untapped sources.  These sources should be explored and exploited immediately.

[JeffreyS]

Very true BT I am even more supportive of that position because it seems we are finally investing in other sources of energy. I would love to see us get ahead of the curve on the alternative sources and have foreign country's sending money our way for oil.