The current sad state of skyway stations and the system itself on weekends

[stjr]

In regards to Miami's ridership numbers, your numbers are out of date.  In 2007 according to the Miami Dade Transit Technical Analysis Report, the ridership in the FY ending June 2007 was 30,250.  Since 1999, the Miami Transit System has surged in ridership.  One of the main reasons - the double tracking of Tri-Rail, which caused more riders from the suburban sprawl along the I-95 corridor in South Florida.  In other words, the system doesn't work on it's own, but it can work when regional transit is incorporated with it.

Detroit's Problem is similar to Jacksonville's - no regional transit to hook into it.  Detroit also has the same problem that the San Marco Trolley had - it was a one direction loop.

Finally, you quoted Ock's O&M Costs per Passenger Mile.  The numbers above that have dates are all from 1999.  Assuming that is true, then based on current ridership numbers, the O&M per Passenger Mile would be 1.51.  Basically, if you increase ridership with the same line (which a regional train would definitely do - that is something that I will guarantee), the O&M costs will go down.

Again, if I was starting from scratch, I would go streetcar long before I do this (remember, we build really multiple systems with the skyway, since we decided to shut it down, and rebuild the system as a monorail).  However, it is here now, would cost millions to demolish and replace with something more economical.

Also, you keep mentioning the expansion.  Yes, I would like to do it someday.  However, I would never do it without implementing a regional transit system, because I don't know of an extension that would actually add riders (unless it is of a ridiculous distance).

Of the expansions (when the time comes), I think the Southbank one makes the most sense, because you now put it on the edge of a residential neighborhood.  Coordinated with other transit improvements, I think it could be beneficial.

The other one that has been discussed is the one to the stadium. This would be EXACTLY 1 mile from Bay and Newnan to Bay and A Phillip Randolph, 1.2 to Adams and Georgia.  On gamedays, it would gain thousands of riders.  Also, you could move the park and ride that is over there to the parking lot adjacent to this, adding riders, and freeing up the trolleys that run this (and the drivers that drive them) to serve other areas and/or increase headways on other routes.  Now, the other side of this, is how much would this increase overall ridership for the year - I don't know for sure.  I think this is something that we would need to study.

Steve, you are joining others in missing the point.  This system is a failure and putting all the lipstick on this pig isn't going to fix it.

Using your own 2007 number of 30,250 riders daily in Miami, this is well below 20 year old projections for 1988!  Just like Jax projections, worthless.  Why do you and other defenders think that comparing apples and oranges by getting ridership numbers 20 years later with bigger systems and greater populations following massive losses and unanticipated improvements justifies going forward with more.  You are simply advocating, using faulty logic, for perpetuating the silliness and mistakes of the past.  I don't get your thinking.

>>>>Miami's Metromover (people mover) was projected to carry 41,800 riders daily by 1988 and missed its projection by nearly 75 percent. The system is carrying 13,400 daily riders in 1999 --- 68 percent below projection despite a more than doubling of the route's length.<<<<

Regarding Ock's costs, you don't show me how you revised it to $1.51 today from his $10.71.  What Ock's chart is good for is showing RELATIVE costs of various systems and I think it supports my position well.  I stand by my conclusions based on the information presented.

Using football games to justify an extension to the stadium is pure folley. First, there are less than a dozen games a year.  Second, the Skyway would carry a mere pittance of the fans to the game and it would take hours to do that.  Third, the Jaguars could leave town at any time and then what would the Skyway be good for?  Also, we have subsidized them enough with taxpayer dollars, we don't need to do more (even though I love the Jags).

Demolition of the Skyway would be paid with just a year or two worth of saved operationg losses ($4million per year or so).  Hey, maybe it could be converted into an elevated downtown BIKE PATH (a la rails to trails) !  No need to demo it then.

Please pay attention to my points.  NO ONE has built or expanded a people mover that ever met expectations or has been considered a true success (political posturing aside) from what I am aware of.  Why would we follow others and our previous selves over the cliff again?!!!!

[thelakelander]

Its been said, in the past, that we would have to repay the feds their investment if demolished.  If true, how long would it take to pay off $184 million?

[stjr]

Lake, it appears there are MJ posters who speak with JTA.  Maybe one could call them and ask if this is true.  I have never heard of something like this anywhere.  If it was in an agreement, it may have an expiration date or at least a proration for time existing.  Also, with the use of political clout, it could probably be amended to be voided if that was the sole issue to abandonment.

Based on my web research, the whole people mover concept was a politically motivated (pork barrel?) experiment of a mass transit concept that the Feds allowed to be "tried out".  It appears even they conceded it was a failure.  As such, I don't know why they would hold a gun to our heads to keep it alive.  We shouldn't be penalized forever for being a guinea pig in a failed experiment.

[Ocklawaha]

Most of the Federal UMTA grants were done as are the current FTA system. Use it or lose it. This is why JTA is backed into a corner with BRT. Millions in available dollars to get our feet wet, do some studies, and help with the construction, but the community CLEARLY doesn't want it. All that money handed out for the Arlington, Southside, Southwest, downtown corridors will be flushed if we don't "build as planned". This is also why they have shifted to a VERY Lite-BRT system to the north. The balance of the funding may be gone forever.

Ditto the Skyway, the choice is either transfer it to another city that qualifys or give it back. Either route would be a horrible waste.

No matter what the "other" consultants have said or done in the past, the formula for success is simple:

1.  Dense Residential connected to Dense Employment + attractive mode = success
2.  Muti-Transit feeders connected to Dense Residential and Dense Employment + attractive mode = success
3.  Dense Residential connected to Dense entertainment = success

How do you define success? I'd say when we start seeing free transfers between modes that are resulting in standees in the Skyway, IE: more the 6 seated per car. Also when the headways are closer and still require the addition of the middle cars (which we own the rights to, but have never been added).

Looking at my formula for success right now the Skyway illness is easy to spot:

1.  ________________ connected to Dense employment + attractive mode =  ?
2.  ________________ connected to ________________ and Dense employment + attractive mode = ?
3. _________________ connected to ________________ + attractive mode = ?

Kind of easy to see where we are missing the vital parts of the Skyway isn't it? The really strange thing is with great care it could be expanded by just 2 - 3 miles @ $20 Million a mile (true single CONCRETE beam monorail) and we could fill in all of those blanks.

How hard would it be to reach:
Times-Union, DuPont, St. Joe, Fidelity, Blue Cross and upper 5-Points.
Kings Avenue Hilton, San Marco Village.
Bay Street Club District, Berkman, Baseball, Arena, Football, Meropolitan Park, Kids Campus.
FCCJ, First Street.

OCKLAWAHA

[jaxtrader]

The repayment requirement of the $184M Federal portion of the construction cost stems from the program under which the grant was made. These monies were allocated to projects promoting mass transit and alleviating road congestion. Therefore, if we close the project (skyway) down, we have to repay the Fed DOT its share...though I believe it would be exclusive of accrued interest. One of my sources for this is information is a city council meeting in which former Councilwoman Jenkins inquired about the feasibility of removing the skyway.

[Steve]

Lake, it appears there are MJ posters who speak with JTA.  Maybe one could call them and ask if this is true.  I have never heard of something like this anywhere. 

This was told to us specifically by JTA

[Steve]

Please pay attention to my points.  NO ONE has built or expanded a people mover that ever met expectations or has been considered a true success (political posturing aside) from what I am aware of.  Why would we follow others and our previous selves over the cliff again?!!!!

Out of curiosity, how much do you think it would cost to expand the skyway 1/2 mile?  I can guarantee the number is not taking the total cost (184 million), figuring out what has been spent per mile, and using that number.  I don't know the number, but I personally don't think it would be this unbelieveable number you seem to think it is.

[Steve]

BTW, the miami system was the 1.51, not the Jacksonville system.  Our costs will remain where we are until we do something that can bring in riders (and that ISN'T expanding it).

[Coolyfett]

Was that not Hendricks in the photo? What was that North South street it was running down? It looked like Hendricks.

No - that was part on JTA ROW, and the other part was on Kings Avenue.

JTA Row? I am guessing that is not an actual street.

[stjr]

Clearly, there must be a time after which repayment is not required.  Also, there may be specific circumstances or exceptions.  I still say, if we want out, the politicians could probably engineer it.

I see Ock thinks it can be expanded for $20 million a mile.  Hmmm... since street cars, buses, rail are alleged to be cheaper, what is their equivalency to $20 million?

Ock, I support mass transit and hate the bad wrap it gets from fiasco's like the Skyway.  Unlike you, I don't think we can or will get it all.  I want to see us get behind something that is more efficient, will serve more people, and make a bigger impact on the entire city/metro area.  We can create your interconnectivity to a much higher degree by redeploying our resources from the Skyway to buses, street cars, and rail.

I believe our most fundamental difference is I think resources and political support are finite (i.e the genie will grant you only one wish, not three!) and you think they are much more elastic.  That certainly pushes us to different courses of action.  

[Coolyfett]

How much would the Skyway have cost if it was not overbuild? You know like with the one beams design. Right now the price tag is 184 Million, what would it have cost if built right the first time?

[Ocklawaha]

What if I told you that both the Skyway AND the Streetcar could self finance, thrive and expand with just a kick-off from the city?

Would you get on my train then?

Bottom line, I can't say how, but some of the MJ crew know my formula - and I don't think there is a single one that thinks it CAN'T be done. In fact played right the "Jacksonville Traction Company" could be a force in the community with jobs, expansions, and ties to JTA's planned BRT Lite, and Commuter Rail.

The Skyway suffers from a lack of will and creativity, more then it does from any ill's of Jacksonville.

OCKLAWAHA

[Steve]

How much would the Skyway have cost if it was not overbuild? You know like with the one beams design. Right now the price tag is 184 Million, what would it have cost if built right the first time?

Hard to tell, since we started this crap in the 1980's.  Monorail costs vary quite a bit, and since there aren't all that many, it's hard to tell

[Steve]

I don't know that we should get out.  There are some benefits to the thing that other transit methods downtown don't have.  Remember, building a Jacksonville subway is really not cost feasible (certainly not today).  One of the advantages that the Skyway has is that it is capable of very tight headways (I believe that with enough cars, 90 seconds is feasible).  This is impossible with a streetcar.  This is particularly beneficial because our train station is on the edge of downtown, unlike most cities who's train stations are in the center of downtown, and almost everyone who arrives by commuter rail will have to transfer to something.

I think we are on the same page about moving our resources to a transit method that better serves the public as a whole (like commuter rail).  My point is that the Skyway can be a piece of the puzzle.  It will never be the core, despite earlier predictions from JTA, but it can definitely serve as a vital link.

[thelakelander]

How much would the Skyway have cost if it was not overbuild? You know like with the one beams design. Right now the price tag is 184 Million, what would it have cost if built right the first time?

With the skyway, its hard to tell.  It was overbuilt for $36.8 million per mile, making it twice as much as "no-frills" light rail.  However, Indianapolis Clarion Health people mover was built for $14.3 million per track mile in 2003.

link: http://www.schwagerdavis.com/pdf/14_JR14ClarianJR.pdf