The current sad state of skyway stations and the system itself on weekends

[stjr]

Lake and Ock, thanks for your detailed responses.  In some cases, I think you overlooked my points, such as I admitted to connections from a central downtown rail station via buses or trolleys - just not the Skyway.

The bigger picture is that I think Skyway extension supporters are chasing rainbows and imaginary pots of gold.  Ridership estimates are historically as much as 10x or more overly optimistic and have no credibility whatsoever.  I might as well pick numbers out of a hat.  If people don't ride it now, adding another mile here or there isn't going to change things much as needs and habits remain the same.

Again, an additional issue is what basket do mass transit proponents want to put their eggs in.  I don't see the political or resource support for multiple expensive mass transit systems in this City.  IMHO, the Skyway is not feasible for longer distance commuting compared to rail and it is longer distance commuting where the real needs, benefits, and potential are.  People move about downtowns with far greater distances in major cities just fine with walking, bikes, cabs, buses, and using the downtown stops of the rails that also serve outlying areas.  If I want to go 5 blocks, I can walk it faster than you can pay, elevate, wait....wait...wait, ride, de-elevate, and exit the Skyway (and possibly walk some morel).

As to abandoning it, in the business world, when mistakes are made, buildings or equipment are obsolete, or overexpansions take place, abandonment is not uncommon (just think of all the buildings, often not very old, that have been demolished and replaced with newer ones).  It is often cheaper to abandon than to maintain or preserve something when looking at it objectively.  We can't afford to wax sentimental about this beast.

I don't think we are going to change each others minds so I guess we will just have to agree to disagree on this one.

[stjr]

Has it been proven that its an overall waste?  After all, it and the regional system that was supposed to feed riders into it was never completed.  By the same token, should the Dames Point Bridge (another money pit) be torn down if it crossed the river, but stopped short of Heckscher Drive and Merrill Road?

Lake, it is not accurate to portray the system as partially built. Your rosy predictions about the impact of an expansion was exactly the argument used to justify the Skyway's current configuration.  Back then, consultants (prostitutes for JTA) made rosy projections for what is there NOW and they were 90% off, even some 20 years later!  I don't doubt for a minute those same consultants can't reappear for an encore and produce some kind of justification for an expansion - I just won't believe them and I think the odds are in my favor for my predictions turning out better than theirs.

What is there now is what was sold to the taxpayers.  When you build your additions and they fail to deliver I am sure someone will again come along and say if it was just a bit further it would fix all the ills.  This just provides a continuous gravy train to contractors.  Everyone else loses.  Let's get off this treadmill. You are hanging the carrot out on the stick that can never be caught.

[thelakelander]

Why is it not accurate?  the original route was supposed to connect to the stadium district.  The thing was also supposed to feed by regional rail system.  Neither of these things were built.  Furthermore, the master plan that incorporated its use was never followed and its not coordinated properly with the existing bus service.  Its more difficult to use the thing than it is to drive downtown and park right at your destination.  But its not the technology that failed, we as a community failed to stay on track with a long term vision.

This does not mean I don't think those original ridership estimates were cooked (they definitely were as well as the costs, imo).  But this thing is really simple to me.  No matter what you construct, if it does not go where people want to go, it will not work.  I think we can both agree it fails in that regard.  So now the question becomes, if its worth solving that problem or giving up altogether.

[Doctor_K]

Giving up on it is clearly not the answer, as so many of our peer and superior cities have demonstrated time and time again with light rail and regional transit.

Lake - phenomenal analogy regarding the Dames Point.  Or really any bridge for that matter. 

I remember reading stories about how JTB originally was a similar white elephant.  "The highway to nowhere," and the like.  It has since served as the impetus for explosive growth along its own corridor in the Southside, Intracoastal, and Beaches areas.  Now granted, that's not the kind of growth we advocate, but one cannot deny the "build it and they will come" impact that JTB had.  Thanks to direction from JTA and City Hall.

What's to say that a similarly-dicated direction couldn't come down from on high once again to complete the transit system that should have been, and could again be, anhcored by the Skyway?

Nothing.  It should be done.  It must be done.

[thelakelander]

They said the same thing about Tri-Rail in Miami.  Now look:

If Tri-Rail trains seemed more crowded than ever last year, it wasn't your imagination.

The commuter railroad carried more than 4 million passengers in 2008, the first time it surpassed that mark in its 20-year history.

With 4.3 million passengers, Tri-Rail's ridership jumped nearly 23 percent over 2007. As gas prices tumbled below $2 a gallon, the number of weekday riders has dipped slightly but still hovers between 15,000 and 16,000 riders per day.

Ridership has more than doubled since 2005, after Tri-Rail finished building a second track, increased the number of weekday and weekend trains and added rush-hour service every 20 minutes.

"These statistics show that the trend of double-digit growth that we have experienced over the past three years is continuing," said Joseph Giulietti, Tri-Rail's executive director.

But Tri-Rail's future remains in doubt unless it gets legislative approval this spring for local dedicated funding, such as a rental car fee, to cover operating expenses.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/custom/consumer/sfl-flbrail0106sbjan06,0,510835.story

--

From my understanding, the rental car fee bill, they are pushing for, will also help with the O&M of other future rail systems (like Orlando's) in Florida.

[Ocklawaha]

Has it been proven that its an overall waste?  After all, it and the regional system that was supposed to feed riders into it was never completed.  By the same token, should the Dames Point Bridge (another money pit) be torn down if it crossed the river, but stopped short of Heckscher Drive and Merrill Road?

consultants (prostitutes for JTA) made rosy projections for what is there NOW and they were 90% off, even some 20 years later!  I don't doubt for a minute those same consultants can't reappear for an encore and produce some kind of justification for an expansion

Ya know stjr, I've lived with a few prostitutes, slept with a couple, and have been consulting in Transportation for a long time - But I've never prostituted myself or my LOUD opinion. Working for Volusia County back in the 80's, a group of county commissioners and Voltran folks met at my house near Deland. The next day I got a call that "I was their boy," there was just one minor detail... "Please take the old Confederate Flag off your office wall - bad for politics..."

"Let me give you a message sir. I'm a Southerner, my father was a Southerner, his father was a Southerner and HIS FATHER served in Company E, 5Th Arkansas infantry, CONFEDERATE STATES OF AMERICA. You tell your #*@& Commission, I'm not taking my flag down for them, for the Governor or the$*#*$ President! GOOD NIGHT TO YOU SIR!" click.

No, when I'm fighting for something I damn near killed in the first place, I've REALLY got to be convinced this can work. Trust me, it CAN.

Like I said yesterday, myself and another MJ player just ask the city to do a RFP on improvements to the Skyway. We will double the ridership AS-IS within two years.

OCKLAWAHA - The Hooker's pal

[Coolyfett]

Wow the Skyway doubt has really become strong on this one. Funny thing is, everyone knows the system is not finished, everyone knows there is much undeveloped land near Skyway Stations, We all know it does not go where people live (Riverside, Springfield & San Marco). Saying that bringing the Skyway to San Marco would destroy San Marco is ridiculous. Just run it down Hendricks and you are fine. Bottom line the Skyway is about 13 Stations sure of being complete. If you build the stations and properly develop the land around the stations it has no choose but to work. People saying it looks ugly, It looks fine to me. If you don't like it in San Marco move further south where you can not see it. Not everyone wants to drive, and I really don't understand those that want to force everyone to use an automobile. All the Skyway is, is an OPTION. An unfinished option. It will not grow on its own. Its an amenity just like the Jaguars, something that makes the city better. Too much undeveloped land in Downtown, Springfield, Riverside to even call it a waste. Later Turtles.

[Steve]

I definitely wouldn't run it down Hendricks.  The route shown above is my option.

What is there now is what was sold to the taxpayers.  When you build your additions and they fail to deliver I am sure someone will again come along and say if it was just a bit further it would fix all the ills.  This just provides a continuous gravy train to contractors.  Everyone else loses.  Let's get off this treadmill. You are hanging the carrot out on the stick that can never be caught.

That's definitely not true.  we have a rendering on this site of the ORIGINAL route of the people mover.  Line one was from University Hospital to The Gator Bowl.  Neither of these destinations are served now.

Are we ever going to see the numbers estimated years ago?  Defnintely not.  I think we could extend this to the beach and not see those numbers.   To me, it's no longer about "Salvaging" the Skyway, it's about providing a reliable transit network to Jacksonville.  In business, salvaging an idea means make it a moneymaker.  That isn't going to happen with transit - it doesn't make money.  If it did, JTA would be a private business.

My feeling is that the Skyway is an asset to Jacksonville, because it is built.  I would like to run it to a few more places (Stadium, Brooklyn, and Atlantic Blvd) as shown above.  Where does this fit in the priority list?  Nowhere near the top.  My belief is that first priority should be a regional transit system to get people downtown, because there aren't enough people that are willing to fight traffic to get downtown to then use transit to go the last mile, which is what the standalone skyway is.

[ProjectMaximus]

I'm convinced by you guys...the success of the skyway depends more on the complementing commuter rail than the completion of its own system. Previously, I would've said extensions to the stadium, as well as developments like brooklyn park and jackson square when completed, should be priorities. But if I have to choose now, I guess I'd go with a starter commuter line.

[Coolyfett]

I definitely wouldn't run it down Hendricks.  The route shown above is my option.

Was that not Hendricks in the photo? What was that North South street it was running down? It looked like Hendricks.

[stjr]

Ock, if I read your numbers correctly, you appear to be strongly supporting my position and hurting yours.

The most expensive system to operate on your list (see below) by far is our Skyway at $10.71 vs. the cheapest at $0.15.  At least 7 of the 12 most expensive systems to operate are "AGT's" like the Skyway. It's near twins in the "big cities" of Detroit and Miami are #2 and #5 most expensive!  ALL of the top twelve least expensive are RAIL systems.  Most streetcars appear to be between $0.67 and $0.92 or between 91% and 93% LESS expensive than our Skyway.
 
The heretofore claimed "successful" Miami mover with "all that traffic" (by the way, its FREE to use!*  That's not a fair comparison! ) is about 20 TIMES the cheapest systems, all some form of rail.

Let's assume we expand the Skyway at ZERO costs and add ZERO additional operating costs for the larger system!  And DOUBLE the riders!  That would bring Jax down to $5.35 (hey, I even rounded down a penny to help you out!).  At that rate, we are #2 most expensive instead of #1.  If we TRIPLE the riders, we are at $3.57.  That's good for #4 on the list.  If we QUADRUPLE the riders, we are at $2.68.  That is #7 on the most expensive list and still over 17 times the expense of the bottom of the list! At TEN times the riders, we are at $1.07, still over SEVEN TIMES the cheapest system and some 16% to 73% HIGHER than the midrange streetcar systems.  Even you would have to agree that a 10 fold increase in riders of the Skyway has a very healthy dose of optimism.   Of course, an expansion won't cost anything near zero to build (remember, construction cost =  maintenance, replacement, and repair = depreciation = an operating expense) and operate. 

Remember too, that operating costs multiply over the 50 to 75 or 100 year life (NYC subways still going strong!) of the system.  NOT taking advantage of SAVING up to 90% to 95% EVERY YEAR in such costs is like overlooking a financial Mt. Everest.  

So again, put on your "common sense" hat and allocate the taxpayer's precious and limited resources.  Based on your own data, I think you will find the answer obvious.
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* From official Miami-Dade Transit web site propaganda:  Metromover is a free automated people-mover system that serves downtown Miami from Omni to Brickell and connects with Metrorail at Government Center and Brickell stations.  There are 20 conveniently-located wheelchair-accessible Metromover stations, one about every two blocks.

Metromover links many of downtown Miami's major office buildings, hotels, and retail centers,  the Stephen P. Clark Government Center, the Cultural Plaza (Miami Art Museum, Historical Museum, Main Library), and the Brickell business district.  With Metromover cars arriving frequently, getting around downtown is fast and convenient
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Per Ock posting:

Comparative O&M Cost: Various Transit Guidedway Modes in Japan and the USA

City/System Transit Mode O&M per Passenger-Mile

Salt Lake City LRT $0.15
San Diego LRT $0.17
St. Louis LRT $0.21
Tokyo/Eidan RRT $0.25
Atlanta RRT $0.25
New York/NYCTA RRT $0.25
San Francisco-BART RRT $0.26
Hiroshima-suburban LRT (1999) LRT $0.27
Tokyo/Toei RRT $0.27
Portland LRT $0.29
Los Angeles LRT $0.29
Philadelphia-PATCO RRT $0.31
Tokyo Monorail $0.31
Chicago RRT $0.31
Kobe RRT $0.32
Washington DC MetroRail RRT $0.34
Yokohama RRT $0.36
Tokyo "Yurikamome" AGT $0.37
Osaka RRT $0.38
Denver LRT $0.40
Nagasaki Streetcar LRT $0.40
Tokyo/Saitama "New Shuttle" AGT $0.40
Boston RRT $0.41
Sacramento LRT $0.42
Nagoya RRT $0.43
Tokyo/Toei Streetcar LRT $0.43
Philadelphia-SEPTA RRT $0.44
New York/PATH RRT $0.46
Miami RRT $0.46
Cleveland RRT $0.46
Hiroshima "Astram Line" AGT $0.46
Osaka "New Tram" AGT $0.48
Baltimore LRT $0.49
Osaka Monorail $0.49
Fukuoka RRT $0.49
Sapporo RRT $0.50
Baltimore RRT $0.52
Tokyo/Tokyu Corp (1999) Streetcar LRT $0.52
Kitakyushu/Chikuho Elec Ry LRT $0.54
Kitakyushu Monorail Monorail $0.54
Dallas LRT $0.55
New Orleans Streetcar LRT $0.56
Boston LRT $0.56
Kyoto/Keifuku Elec Ry (1999) Streetcar LRT $0.57
Hiroshima-Urban lines (1999) Streetcar LRT $0.59
Enoshima Elec Ry LRT $0.60
Sendai RRT $0.61
Los Angeles RRT $0.62
Tokyo/Tama Monorail $0.63
Kobe "Portliner"+"Rokkoliner" AGT $0.63
Shonan Monorail $0.63
Cleveland LRT $0.64
Philadelphia/SEPTA LRT $0.64
Kagoshima Streetcar LRT $0.67
Yokohama "Kanazawa Seaside Line" AGT $0.68
Kumamoto Streetcar LRT $0.69
Takaoka Streetcar LRT $0.77
Toyohashi (0.4 mi/1999) Streetcar LRT $0.77
Toyama (1.7 mi/1999) Streetcar LRT $0.78
Okayama Streetcar LRT $0.83
Kochi Streetcar LRT $0.83
Osaka/Sakai Streetcar LRT $0.84
Pittsburgh LRT $0.84
San Francisco/Muni LRT $0.85
Hakodate Streetcar LRT $0.92
Kyoto RRT $0.92
Buffalo LRT $0.94
Chiba Monorail $0.97
New York/Staten island RRT $0.97
Seattle Monorail $1.02
San Jose LRT $1.07
Otsu/Keihan Elec Ry (1999) LRT $1.08
Sapporo Streetcar LRT $1.15
Newark+HBLRT (NJT) LRT $1.27
Gifu (1999) Streetcar LRT $1.37
Matsuyama (1999) Streetcar LRT $1.44
Komaki "Peachliner" AGT $1.73
Tokyo/Seibu Ry Yamaguchi Line AGT $2.09
Memphis Streetcar LRT $2.31
Osaka OTS Line AGT $2.45
Tokyo-Toei/Ueno Park Monorail (1999) Monorail $2.65
Seattle Waterfront Streetcar Streetcar LRT $2.88
Yukarigaoka AGT $2.91
Miami MetroMover AGT $3.42
Inuyama "Meitetsu Monkeyu Park Monorail" Monorail $4.10
Nagoya/Guideway Bus Guided Bus $5.06
Detroit People Mover AGT $6.07
Jacksonville Skyway Monorail AGT $10.71

[stjr]

See what a Las Vegas Monorail CONSULTANT had to say about our Skyway and other people mover projections! - even after major EXPANSIONS as further advocated here by some:
-----------------------------------------------------
Some of the most inaccurate ridership projections have occurred with respect to local circulator projects similar to the proposed LLC Monorail.

Miami's Metromover (people mover) was projected to carry 41,800 riders daily by 1988 and missed its projection by nearly 75 percent. The system is carrying 13,400 daily riders in 1999 --- 68 percent below projection despite a more than doubling of the route's length.(

Jacksonville's downtown monorail was to have carried 10,000 daily riders in its original alignment and 38,000 when completed. In 1996 the monorail was carrying under 1,000 daily riders --- 90 percent below the 10,000 projection.(9) The system has since been nearly tripled in length, and ridership has risen to 1,800. Two new stations will be added to the present seven in 2000. It seems doubtful that ridership on the completed system will reach 2,500 and that the 38,000 daily ridership projection will be missed by more than 90 percent. [My NOTE: It appears after adding the two stations, ridership actually went DOWN!  According to figures from APTA, average weekday ridership in first quarter 2008 was 1,700, about 30% below the previous year's figure.]

Detroit's downtown people mover was projected to carry 67,700 daily riders in the late 1980s. In 1996, the system carried fewer than 7,000 daily riders, approximately 90 percent below the projection.(10)

A recent National Academy of Sciences report evaluated the international experience in transportation system projections (such as fixed guideways) and found:(11)

Traffic forecasts that are off by 20 to 60 percent when compared with actual development are frequent in large transportation projects.
------------------------------------------------------------

Now please tell me again how expansion of the Skyway is going to save the day.
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See the whole report at http://www.publicpurpose.com/ut-lvmono1.htm

[stjr]

Here is the transcript from the SECOND (followup) ABC News story on the Jax Skyway in 2001/2002.  It backs up my contention that, indeed, the FULL original system was COMPLETED!  Since then, there are two more stops and ridership has DROPPED nearly 50%.  See if the promises and excuses sound like deja vu!  Where does it end?  How quickly we forget!
-------------------------------------------------------------
Riderless Express

Skyway

Almost No One Is Riding $200 Million Skyway
By Charles Herman - ABC NEWS.com

J A C K S O N V I L L E, Fla., July 29 â€" The 2.5-mile Jacksonville Automated Skyway Express is a model of efficiency. Completely automated and controlled from a central operation center, the Skyway makes eight stops throughout the northeastern Florida city that is split in two by the St. John's River.

The only problem: hardly anyone rides it.

"It's strictly a waste of money from beginning to end," decried longtime Jacksonville critic Marvin Edwards. He blames the builder and supporter of the Skyway, the Jacksonville Transportation Authority (JTA).

"They lied about ridership projections," explained Edwards. "They said 56,000 a day at first, then dropped that to 30,000, then last it was 18,000 to 19,000."

Currently, the Skyway sees 3,000 riders per day who pay 35 cents a trip. In fiscal 2001, the Skyway brought in $513,694 in revenue but its expenses were $3.5 million.

Fights for Funding

The Skyway was first proposed back in 1971. It took more than a decade before the funding â€" federal, state and local â€" could be secured to start construction. At the time, the goal was mainly for development so the Skyway to connect the downtown core with parking facilities away from downtown.

The Jacksonville Skyway was part of three demonstration projects to see if "people-mover" systems could stimulate business expansion in downtown centers. Detroit and Miami received federal funds for similar projects.

Some officials within the Department of Transportation's Federal Transit Authority questioned the ridership projections for the Jacksonville Skyway

In an interview with ABCNEWS' John Martin in 1994, Federal Transit Administration official Gordon Linton said, "We and this department, this administration and previous administrations, have not supported it."

Nevertheless, Congress eventually provided more than half the funds for the $182 million Skyway.

In 1987 construction began on the first 0.7-mile portion of the system.

"It was mainly for political reasons, not transportation reasons," explained former Rep. Bob Carr, who chaired the committee that approved funding for transportation projects in the early 1990s. "Like so many projects, they get a camel's nose under the tent and then it gets very very difficult to stop them."

Few Riders From the Start

In 1989 the first section was completed and opened to the public. Jacksonsville's transit leaders projected more than 10,000 people would ride the Skyway a day on this 0.7-mile starter section.

Instead, only 1,200 rode the Skyway.

In 1993 Transit Authority member Miles Francis defended the system to ABCNEWS. "Until this thing is finished, there's no way to measure its performance or its potential."

Now it's finished and the Jacksonville Transit Authority is still waiting for the riders to come.

Open for Business

In November 2000, the complete Skyway opened to the public. Nearly two years later, with ridership at an average of 3,000 a day, the Skyway has not met even the projections for the starter section.

"No one will argue with the fact that ridership is not where we would like it to be," admitted Steve Arrington, director of engineering with the Jacksonville Transit Authority. He says the lack of riders is attributed to economic recessions in downtown Jacksonville in the early 1990s that led to a decrease in development in the area.

"Any number of things predicted to occur that didn't occur development-wise has an effect," he added. "Fuel prices, parking prices."
Arrington still believes in the Skyway and expects to reach its ridership goals. "You don't build a system like this or a roadway for the next four years," said Arrington. "You try to built it for the next 20 to 30 years."

Riding an empty car from one station to another, critic Edwards disagreed. "This really is a public rip-off and a total waste of money that could have gone for something not quite as fancy, but a lot more practical."

[Steve]

Was that not Hendricks in the photo? What was that North South street it was running down? It looked like Hendricks.

No - that was part on JTA ROW, and the other part was on Kings Avenue.

[Steve]

In regards to Miami's ridership numbers, your numbers are out of date.  In 2007 according to the Miami Dade Transit Technical Analysis Report, the ridership in the FY ending June 2007 was 30,250.  Since 1999, the Miami Transit System has surged in ridership.  One of the main reasons - the double tracking of Tri-Rail, which caused more riders from the suburban sprawl along the I-95 corridor in South Florida.  In other words, the system doesn't work on it's own, but it can work when regional transit is incorporated with it.

Detroit's Problem is similar to Jacksonville's - no regional transit to hook into it.  Detroit also has the same problem that the San Marco Trolley had - it was a one direction loop.

Finally, you quoted Ock's O&M Costs per Passenger Mile.  The numbers above that have dates are all from 1999.  Assuming that is true, then based on current ridership numbers, the O&M per Passenger Mile would be 1.51.  Basically, if you increase ridership with the same line (which a regional train would definitely do - that is something that I will guarantee), the O&M costs will go down.

Again, if I was starting from scratch, I would go streetcar long before I do this (remember, we build really multiple systems with the skyway, since we decided to shut it down, and rebuild the system as a monorail).  However, it is here now, would cost millions to demolish and replace with something more economical.

Also, you keep mentioning the expansion.  Yes, I would like to do it someday.  However, I would never do it without implementing a regional transit system, because I don't know of an extension that would actually add riders (unless it is of a ridiculous distance).

Of the expansions (when the time comes), I think the Southbank one makes the most sense, because you now put it on the edge of a residential neighborhood.  Coordinated with other transit improvements, I think it could be beneficial.

The other one that has been discussed is the one to the stadium. This would be EXACTLY 1 mile from Bay and Newnan to Bay and A Phillip Randolph, 1.2 to Adams and Georgia.  On gamedays, it would gain thousands of riders.  Also, you could move the park and ride that is over there to the parking lot adjacent to this, adding riders, and freeing up the trolleys that run this (and the drivers that drive them) to serve other areas and/or increase headways on other routes.  Now, the other side of this, is how much would this increase overall ridership for the year - I don't know for sure.  I think this is something that we would need to study.