JTA meetings on the future of the Skyway

[thelakelander]

The cooked numbers ($428M to expand to Brooklyn) strongly suggests that they don't want to do anything other than salvage their autonomous vehicle program.

[acme54321]

The cooked numbers ($428M to expand to Brooklyn) strongly suggests that they don't want to do anything other than salvage their autonomous vehicle program.

For sure

[Charles Hunter]

The cooked numbers ($428M to expand to Brooklyn) strongly suggests that they don't want to do anything other than salvage their autonomous vehicle program.

OK, be fair, the $428 million isn't just "to expand to Brooklyn," it is to purchase new trains and reconstruct the entire guideway to accommodate them.

Put new automated people-mover trains on structure

Replacing the existing Skyway vehicles with a new fleet of automated people-mover trains would cost nearly $428 million.

The 10 new trains would be longer and more modern but they would require large-scale reconstruction of the elevated structure to accommodate them. This alternative also would extend the service into the Brooklyn neighborhood with a new stations there.

[Charles Hunter]

Are those cost estimates just capital costs, or do they include operational costs? If so, for how many years? At what level of service? Are the estimates all in current-year dollars, or year-of-expenditure dollars?

[jaxlongtimer]

OK, be fair, the $428 million isn't just "to expand to Brooklyn," it is to purchase new trains and reconstruct the entire guideway to accommodate them.

Put new automated people-mover trains on structure

Replacing the existing Skyway vehicles with a new fleet of automated people-mover trains would cost nearly $428 million.

The 10 new trains would be longer and more modern but they would require large-scale reconstruction of the elevated structure to accommodate them. This alternative also would extend the service into the Brooklyn neighborhood with a new stations there.

Are those cost estimates just capital costs, or do they include operational costs? If so, for how many years? At what level of service? Are the estimates all in current-year dollars, or year-of-expenditure dollars?

Charles, per below, whatever amount is spent will only sustain the Skyway for "10 to 12" years. And, this is from the ever overly optimistic JTA!  Assuming there is even a remote chance their estimate is accurate, we are now looking at, with a Brooklyn extension and likely cost overruns and inflation, 1/2 billion dollars for that short period plus millions in operating expenses.  And, assuming the investment is based on a growth projection, also likely unrealistic, starting at today's low numbers, for most of that 10 to 12 years, there won't be any real demand that comes close to even the most conservative projections.  Do the math and it is off-the-charts not cost effective.

At an estimated cost of $276 million, JTA would rehabilitate the aging fleet so it has 10 vehicles available for carrying passengers on the Skyway. The vehicles date back 30 years. The spending also would make improvements to the guideway on the elevated structure and the command center for the system, plus some enhancements to the Skway station.

That would add 10 to 12 years of useful life for the system.

[Charles Hunter]

^ (not quote-posting the above, jaxlongtime)
I still don't know if the JTA estimates include O&M costs. The sentence you have in red:

That would add 10 to 12 years of useful life for the system.

I read that as the modified structure and rehabilitated vehicles would only last 10-12 years. Like if you overhaul your 1995 Buick Skylark, it will not extend its life into perpetuity. Operating and Maintenance costs during those 10=12 years would be additional (gas, oil changes, tires, etc. for your Skylark).

[marcuscnelson]

^ Right, the 10-12 year lifespan is specific to the rehabilitate alternative. Buying entirely new trains would mean more like a ~30 year lifespan, while any NAVI or streetcar alternative would be whatever the lifespans of those are. Half a billion is obviously a lot of money and I'm a little unsure about that choice right this moment, but let's be clear that that particular option would not only be buying 10-12 years.

In terms of growth projections, there don't seem to be any ridership numbers associated with these alternatives right now but one must consider the potential impact of things like Pearl Square's continued development and the UF campus. Serving those would come at a cost (later service hours and weekend operations) but provided there is actually reliable and available frequent service that those students and residents and visitors can use, there is real promise there. Avoiding the shortfalls of the past means making sure that development and transit complement each other rather than getting in each other's way. JTA has long been terrible at this, and hopefully their future leadership can be better.

It seems important to remember that JTA's optimism at present is tuned towards whatever justifies using autonomous vehicles, not transit in general.

[thelakelander]

The cooked numbers ($428M to expand to Brooklyn) strongly suggests that they don't want to do anything other than salvage their autonomous vehicle program.

OK, be fair, the $428 million isn't just "to expand to Brooklyn," it is to purchase new trains and reconstruct the entire guideway to accommodate them.

Put new automated people-mover trains on structure

Replacing the existing Skyway vehicles with a new fleet of automated people-mover trains would cost nearly $428 million.

The 10 new trains would be longer and more modern but they would require large-scale reconstruction of the elevated structure to accommodate them. This alternative also would extend the service into the Brooklyn neighborhood with a new stations there.

To be fair and logical, why is it a random one off? It makes no sense to modernize with larger trains without a real expansion. If going through the expense of a complete rebuild, thats something that should be considered with a real expansion....like into San Marco, the stadium or UF Health Jacksonville. No need for all that investment in a higher capacity system that doesn't go anywhere, which means paying for the extra capacity isn't justified. However, that weird estimate for a system that can move thousands more people, is being directly compared to something with the capacity of Uber and Waymo.

Also, its weird that there's no apples to apples option to modernize the existing rolling stock and system, while also including a Brooklyn station. This is the only option shown where expansion to Brooklyn (basically adding a no-frills station to where trains can already go) only makes sense.

I'm still confused where this streetcar option comes from, with a cost estimate when there's been no real evaluation of a route that makes sense or is meeting some type of demand to justify its consideration.

All the other options end up with more investment in NAVI, with no consideration of running better bus service (e.g. 20 years ago, this is what they were saying BRT...like LRT but better, would deliver).

Their alternatives are a disorganized platter of 💩 and confusion for people who aren't well versed in this stuff.

[jaxlongtimer]

^ (not quote-posting the above, jaxlongtime)
I still don't know if the JTA estimates include O&M costs. The sentence you have in red:

That would add 10 to 12 years of useful life for the system.

I read that as the modified structure and rehabilitated vehicles would only last 10-12 years. Like if you overhaul your 1995 Buick Skylark, it will not extend its life into perpetuity. Operating and Maintenance costs during those 10=12 years would be additional (gas, oil changes, tires, etc. for your Skylark).

Charles, like Ennis says, following JTA's numbers is a wasteful exercise.  That said, per below replacement vs. the rehab option for $276 million, JTA is saying it can do a complete replacement and extension to Brooklyn for an additional $152 million ($428 replace + Brooklyn less $276 rehab).  In my eyes, either the rehab is way overpriced or the replace + Brooklyn is way too low given that differential.  Although Marcus predicts a 30 year life extension for replacement, I don't see that number from JTA in the article.  If it is like the last 30 years, it would appear that at least 5 to 10 of those years would be expensive/declining services again if the technology is no longer supported along the way.  How one can buy a "30 year" asset with no assurance you can run it that long is beyond me.  I will suggest that 20 years may be more realistic for 100% usability based on the track (no pun intended  ) record, to date.

None of this changes my opinion about investing any further in the Skyway  .

Replacing the existing Skyway vehicles with a new fleet of automated people-mover trains would cost nearly $428 million.

The 10 new trains would be longer and more modern but they would require large-scale reconstruction of the elevated structure to accommodate them. This alternative also would extend the service into the Brooklyn neighborhood with a new stations there.

[thelakelander]

^ (not quote-posting the above, jaxlongtime)
I still don't know if the JTA estimates include O&M costs. The sentence you have in red:

That would add 10 to 12 years of useful life for the system.

I read that as the modified structure and rehabilitated vehicles would only last 10-12 years. Like if you overhaul your 1995 Buick Skylark, it will not extend its life into perpetuity. Operating and Maintenance costs during those 10=12 years would be additional (gas, oil changes, tires, etc. for your Skylark).

Yes! We'll likely need to rehabilitate vehicles because it will take 10-15 years for them to do anything. None of these other options will be done in a decade the way we move and with JTA now $32 million in debt. We've already been talking about Skyway modernization for a decade and we haven't advanced to even having a plan. So we're in a situation where we're going to have to squeeze some more life out of the Skylark before immediately trading it in for a Bentley. The question to be answered is if this is really the price range for rehabilitation. I've seen a study from a qualified vendor suggesting that these numbers are seriously cooked.

[thelakelander]

There's also another glaring problem with the cooked numbers. There's no mention of ridership capacity for these options. We're comparing systems with trains/streetcars that can move +100 riders per vehicle with vans where you can barely squeeze in 6-8 adults. This is like comparing LRT to a go-cart....and the go-cart option still costs as much as the options that have the ability to move masses of people. At best NAVI is a taxi or Uber that can get you from a real transit station to the front door of a destination that's not on the transit spine. Apples and oranges.

[thelakelander]

Went into my old bag of archived studies collecting dust. Came across this from the COJ 2010 Urban Core Vision Plan. 16 years later, other than a seriously value engineered First Coast Flyer BRT-lite system and a small transportation center, not much else discussed back then has advanced despite hundreds of millions being spent on studies and NAVI...which wasn't on the radar in 2010.



Oh, we did lose the downtown PCT trolley, which was cheaper, more reliable and carried more ground than NAVI ever would in our lifetimes.

[jaxlongtimer]

Went into my old bag of archived studies collecting dust. Came across this from the COJ 2010 Urban Core Vision Plan. 16 years later, other than a seriously value engineered First Coast Flyer BRT-lite system and a small transportation center, not much else discussed back then has advanced despite hundreds of millions being spent on studies and NAVI...which wasn't on the radar in 2010.

Ennis, this brings up another issue regarding investing in the Skyway. Assuming JTA got approval to do something with it, how could you trust them to competently execute on time, on budget and with the right equipment, maintenance and operations?  No matter how good the plan, if you have the 3 Stooges in charge, it is a waste of money to fund it.

I would suggest that it will take at least 1 to 3 years to get JTA on a sound footing assuming they had a proper CEO and Board, which may be wishful thinking based on its long history of incompetent management at all levels.  If we did nothing for the Skyway during that time, I would suggest its ship would have definitely sailed, if not already.

[Charles Hunter]

thelakelander
I'm still confused where this streetcar option comes from, with a cost estimate when there's been no real evaluation of a route that makes sense or is meeting some type of demand to justify its consideration.

From what I recall of the JTA's presentation to the TPO CAC, they replicated the Skyway route with the Streetcar. But, since no map was provided, who knows? Does it cross the river, and if so, how? Replace the Skyway infrastructure with streetcar rails? All a big mystery.

And, yes, I know it is folly to use JTA's numbers, but, it's all we have.

[thelakelander]

Went into my old bag of archived studies collecting dust. Came across this from the COJ 2010 Urban Core Vision Plan. 16 years later, other than a seriously value engineered First Coast Flyer BRT-lite system and a small transportation center, not much else discussed back then has advanced despite hundreds of millions being spent on studies and NAVI...which wasn't on the radar in 2010.

Ennis, this brings up another issue regarding investing in the Skyway. Assuming JTA got approval to do something with it, how could you trust them to competently execute on time, on budget and with the right equipment, maintenance and operations?  No matter how good the plan, if you have the 3 Stooges in charge, it is a waste of money to fund it.

I would suggest that it will take at least 1 to 3 years to get JTA on a sound footing assuming they had a proper CEO and Board, which may be wishful thinking based on its long history of incompetent management at all levels.  If we did nothing for the Skyway during that time, I would suggest its ship would have definitely sailed, if not already.

At this point, just kill NAVI and get leadership squared away. Then we can go from there. Its definitely a money pit and the core reason JTA is in the financial situation it is today.