Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....

[marcuscnelson]

Came across this from First Coast News.

I can't help but find it interesting, knowing what else in Jacksonville costs $7 million per year to operate and features a very high cost per rider, but in a much smaller service area and for far fewer service hours than Connexion Plus.

[jaxlongtimer]

Came across this from First Coast News.

I can't help but find it interesting, knowing what else in Jacksonville costs $7 million per year to operate and features a very high cost per rider, but in a much smaller service area and for far fewer service hours than Connexion Plus.

"The cost is around $7 million annually, so it's very costly. The average trip is somewhere between a $30-$40 cost to JTA and we charge $6, so as you can see, there's a pretty big delta there," said JTA CEO Nat Ford.

While the cost is $7 million they recover about 15% to 20% with the $6 fee, so the loss is likely $5.5 to $6 million, less than U2C (I still think U2C loses more than $7 million if fully accounted for). Mr. Ford was likely careful how he worded the above quote for this reason. 

For similar expense, you can bet that Connexion PLus is a much more useful use of such funds.

[Jdog]

What's status of Rory Diamond preparing possible legislation to terminate phase 2 and 3?   Overall thoughts where this would / could lead?

[Charles Hunter]

Would changing how the tax funds are spent require a referendum (either gas or sales, I forget which)? If so, I could see Rory and company trying to get it on the 2027 City elections, in hopes of turning out voters for whoever the Republican candidate for Mayor will be.

[marcuscnelson]

^ No, the gas tax doesn't require a referendum, just legislation. Can't speak for what Rory's thinking would be to that end. Really hoping whatever Council ultimately passes is not going to dedicate even more funding to road projects than the LOGT already quite generously does. Billions of state, federal, and local dollars are already going to road projects across the county, it's not too much to ask for a fraction of that to invest in transit and rail that people would want to ride if it were better.

[Charles Hunter]

Thanks, marcus, I couldn't remember the rules for changing the project list for the gas tax.
I agree that any of this money reclaimed from the U2C should go to non-automobile modes, except maybe some EV charging stations.

[Tacachale]

What's status of Rory Diamond preparing possible legislation to terminate phase 2 and 3?   Overall thoughts where this would / could lead?

Diamond is not a serious person, but what he proposed was cutting the entire gas tax and all the projects included therein. That would be a disaster, but that's par for the course with him.

[marcuscnelson]

^ Yes, getting rid of the gas tax entirely is a terrible idea, there are too many local and regional transportation needs for that. Rededicating all of its funding to only road projects is perhaps an even worse idea. But that doesn't make the status quo plan to hand a quarter-billion dollars to JTA quadrupling down on the U2C a good idea either. City Council should do something about the status quo, the question is what exactly.

[jaxlongtimer]

Replace the Federal funds Trump cancelled for the Emerald Trail and use the rest to plan/engineer for rail and start purchasing right-of-way with any reminder for when it finally gets built.  Its not "if" but "when" fixed rail transit makes its way to Jax.

[thelakelander]

Unless we're buying a freight railroad corridor from CSX or FEC, there's not much ROW worth purchasing. The urban context has limited us to that route or right sizing existing streets.

[marcuscnelson]

Replace the Federal funds Trump cancelled for the Emerald Trail and use the rest to plan/engineer for rail and start purchasing right-of-way with any reminder for when it finally gets built.  Its not "if" but "when" fixed rail transit makes its way to Jax.

As I said before, as much as I believe the Emerald Trail is good, we are already putting $132 million from the gas tax into it. It's terrible that this administration decided to take that program away, but I would really hesitate to take another $147 million of limited local resources for just that as opposed to other things. Maybe a little more if it'll get some particular portions over the finish line but not all of it, because there are other transit needs in the region.

Five years ago when the gas tax was being discussed, I would have been a lot more inclined to push a big portion of this funding to commit to a new rail transit system, because it seemed likely then that a future federal funding cycle would provide major funding to complete that system, but given the circumstances since 2021 I'm not sure it's the best use of this funding in the near term. We should absolutely lay the groundwork, such as committing now to building a rail station downtown that could potentially accommodate Amtrak, Brightline, and regional rail. We can certainly push for a 2055 LRTP that demonstrates a plan for the transit we would build in the future, which other TPOs and MPOs do often but ours really doesn't (seemingly to avoid JTA's turf). Buying ROW or station sites would strongly depend on what we would expect to happen funding-wise on that timeframe.

We should also probably make sure that the Skyway is not going to literally fall apart on us while we start over on deciding what will happen with it and rail transit in the long run (since Nat Ford worked so hard to completely blow our previous bite at that apple). the planning work of what to do next costs money, and because we'd be starting from scratch after cleaning house at JTA, being able to afford those planners will be key.

But in the meantime, it looks like the First Coast Flyer will have to be our "rapid transit" for the foreseeable future, so investing in improving it (and probably also in running better bus service in general) would be worth at least some of that money. Figuring out what needs to happen with the new state laws about lane repurposing, improving stations with platforms more like what we see on SunRunner and other BRT systems, making some limited expansions (turn the Amazon Shuttle into an airport connection to the Green Line).

[marcuscnelson]

Unless we're buying a freight railroad corridor from CSX or FEC, there's not much ROW worth purchasing. The urban context has limited us to that route or right sizing existing streets.

I was initially going to say that buying ROW would be outside the purview of the LOGT at this point, but after some thought I'm willing to consider otherwise provided real visionary transit leadership at JTA and the City, not future gadgetbahn-obsessives like Ford and seemingly Deegan. I think there are some key sites that it might make sense to purchase sooner rather than later. Some examples that come to mind:

• Regency Square Mall is finally being redeveloped. Portions of that site along Arlington Expressway should be secured now in case a future transit system might stop there. Other parcels along Atlantic Boulevard and Arlington Expressway might also be worth considering, especially if a future Mathews Bridge replacement might enable the opportunity to build rail transit between Downtown and the Beaches.
• On the opposite end, there's a site near where Kings Road transitions into New Kings Road that I think might be suitable as a future rail transit maintenance facility. There are rail lines in that area, so some reconfiguration would be needed in order to fit everything, but having those parcels now for a future facility or to make those choices could be a good idea.
• A corridor between Jacksonville International Airport and the rail line adjacent to North Main Street should be secured to enable a regional rail line between Downtown and the airport. We're running out of time on that as the area surrounding River City Marketplace continues to grow.
• It's possible this is already outside the realm of possibility, but such a line between Downtown and the airport would probably need to modify portions of the S-Line and a number of parcels north of 12th Street in Springfield. Rail-with-trail corridors are already common, but fitting even trains like those used on TEXRail in Fort Worth will probably require some finagling. That would be a difficult process but critical to a transit future for the Northside. There's also a bridge that would be needed north of 50th Street to cross some freight lines.
• JTA already at one point asked for a consultant to study building multiple regional maintenance facilities to replace the Myrtle Avenue Operations Campus. I'm not sure the status of those plans now, but the Myrtle campus is also in the way of connecting that rail line to the JRTC. Facilitating that operational shift is worth some funding, especially if those new bus facilities might be co-located with future rail layover facilities.
• Securing one or two parcels along the FEC for a future regional station would be smart, since that Race Track Road site studied long ago is long gone with that Winn Dixie-turned-Aldi and Avenues Walk already exists. This would be very long run, since I don't think regional rail would happen before Brightline on that corridor at this point, but it'd hurt more to have to find it later.
• Similarly, securing a few parcels along the CSX A-Line would be smart, which might be useful sooner than FEC sites since Amtrak services could potentially stop at some. Ortega Park, NAS Jax, and perhaps elsewhere in Clay County.
• Finally, more modestly, some smaller purchases for things like better bus stops and stations or even enabling future trails connecting to stations could always be part of that mix.

Obviously, these would be enabling actions to invest billions into transit in the region. No matter how you slice it this would be about gearing up to spend a lot of money. But it's worth noting that we already spend billions on our highway system, and are actively pouring billions more between I-95 expansion, I-10 expansion, I-295 expansion, the First Coast Expressway, JTB, Southside Blvd, SR-9B, SR-312, and the laundry list of county and state road expansions we quietly spend millions and billions on per year. At some point we as a region are going to have to think harder about how we spend all that money, and if it really should be for asphalt that everyone will continue to need to be on for every single trip they make, or if there are better, more efficient, more flexible ways to spend it. Maybe that's still outside the purview of the LOGT, maybe that's something we need to have a referendum for, but it's certainly something to start thinking about.

[Charles Hunter]

Those are all necessary steps toward developing a comprehensive transit system in northeast Florida.

The North Florida TPO is currently soliciting ideas for studies the TPO can undertake over the next two years, starting this July. You don't need to have a detailed study design or a cost estimate, just a concept with a brief description. Send your ideas to the TPO's Executive Assistant, Jennifer Lott at jlottt@northfloridatpo.com  They need these requests by January 20 to meet federal deadlines.

[Charles Hunter]

Prompted by the comments on the share of transportation funding going to highway, I got curious about how much highway funding is in the North Florida TPO's Transportation Improvement Program (TIP), the document that includes federal and state transportation funding, and some local transportation funding. The TIP covers the next five fiscal years (FY26-30) and Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns Counties.

The TIP proposes expenditures of $7.3 billion. Just over half of that - $3.8 billion (52.0%) - is programmed for highway capacity projects. This includes new roads and adding lanes to existing roads and interchanges. Another $2.2 billion is programmed for other "highway" projects - repaving roads, intersection and interchange improvements, traffic signals and ITS systems, drainage, landscaping, etc. Together, highway projects consume $6.0 billion (81.5%) of the TIP.

Trahsit gets the next biggest share at $654 million (8>9%. The remainder goes to Seaports (Jax and Fernandina), Aviation (JAA and St Augustine), Bicycle/Pedestrian ($91 million or 1.2@), Rail, and Planning.

[thelakelander]

Replace the Federal funds Trump cancelled for the Emerald Trail and use the rest to plan/engineer for rail and start purchasing right-of-way with any reminder for when it finally gets built.  Its not "if" but "when" fixed rail transit makes its way to Jax.

As I said before, as much as I believe the Emerald Trail is good, we are already putting $132 million from the gas tax into it. It's terrible that this administration decided to take that program away, but I would really hesitate to take another $147 million of limited local resources for just that as opposed to other things. Maybe a little more if it'll get some particular portions over the finish line but not all of it, because there are other transit needs in the region.

I agree. In no way should a significant portion of the remaining gas tax funds be shifted to the Emerald Trail. I'm a big fan of the project but we have some real citywide mass transit challenges that need to be addressed. In this climate, we can't rely on the feds or state, so we have to stretch our local resources as far as possible.

We should also probably make sure that the Skyway is not going to literally fall apart on us while we start over on deciding what will happen with it and rail transit in the long run (since Nat Ford worked so hard to completely blow our previous bite at that apple). the planning work of what to do next costs money, and because we'd be starting from scratch after cleaning house at JTA, being able to afford those planners will be key.

This seems like another low hanging fruit to me. Upgrade the Skyway with new rolling stock. Doesn't matter to me if it is monrail (i.e. keeping the center beam) or some other type of technology, as long as it remains grade separated and not mixed with regular vehicular traffic. Its a part of our local mass transit system and it should be viewed independently of the U2C/AV conversation. Related to this, COJ and the DIA should do everything humanly possible to increase density within a 1/4 mile radius of every existing Skyway station. Seems like adding a station at the Brooklyn O&M center is a no brainer as well. Ultimately, if there is a decision to possibly extend to the stadium, consider options that can take advantage of what remains of the Hart Bridge Expressway between Liberty Street and APR.

But in the meantime, it looks like the First Coast Flyer will have to be our "rapid transit" for the foreseeable future, so investing in improving it (and probably also in running better bus service in general) would be worth at least some of that money. Figuring out what needs to happen with the new state laws about lane repurposing, improving stations with platforms more like what we see on SunRunner and other BRT systems, making some limited expansions (turn the Amazon Shuttle into an airport connection to the Green Line).

I don't see a world (within the next 5 years) where FDOT allows a lane elimination on Philips, Beach, Blanding or Lem Turner for a seldom used JTA bus. The AADT on these arterials don't suggest this would be feasible and that's not where state and federal transportation politics are at. When looking at a system like SunRunner in St. Pete, that's running on locally maintained roadways. If Jax wants something similar, we need to be evaluating local arterials and collectors where this may make sense. Otherwise, we're just beating our heads against the wall when its clear this isn't really happening on FDOT maintained roads statewide.