Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....

[marcuscnelson]

Well, I guess we've made it.

3,126 days ago, JTA officials led by CEO Nat Ford first recommended that the Skyway monorail be replaced by autonomous vehicles.

And today, more than 8 and a half years and tens of millions of dollars later, the "Ultimate Urban Circulator" is here.

How do we feel?

[thelakelander]

It's like a recurring nightmare Jax can't escape. Everything warned about over the past decade has unfolded exactly as predicted, we're now seriously deploying Ford cargo vans and rebranding it as some kind of revolutionary breakthrough. And yet, people are still charging headfirst, full speed, into a painfully expensive brick wall. Even JTA can see the wall. So on grand opening day, the future excuse making for eventual failure has began by claims of success being dependent on future downtown development.

[Jax_Developer]

It's like a recurring nightmare Jax can't escape. Everything warned about over the past decade has unfolded exactly as predicted, we're now seriously deploying Ford cargo vans and rebranding it as some kind of revolutionary breakthrough. And yet, people are still charging headfirst, full speed, into a painfully expensive brick wall. Even JTA can see the wall. So on grand opening day, the future excuse making for eventual failure has began by claims of success being dependent on future downtown development.

RIP TOD. What a waste of time that was.

[marcuscnelson]

My personal thoughts:

I am deeply embarrassed on Jacksonville's behalf. Despite years of warnings and concerns by advocates and media, obvious institutional distrust from state and federal partners, and ever eroding business cases, JTA has dragged an enormous liability into public coffers to the benefit of seemingly and no one but their executives.

The Skyway was flawed in its implementation, I would be remiss to ignore that. But the tangibility of its nature, the possibility of its permanence, meant that it would always be an opportunity to build on and improve. NAVI in every way lacks that opportunity at extravagant cost. Vans as expensive as buses with a fraction of the capacity (and are then to be replaced by bespoke vehicles at even greater cost), systems that cost even more to operate than the truly automated Skyway (while running even less), impending fares for a quality of service that will vaporize even the barest of business cases, enormous investments with none of the development attraction of fixed transit lines (while still making the long-term commitments demanded by federal grants), and all while paling in comparison to the obviously superior private operations that are beginning to prove themselves across the country.

But even more expensive than the U2C itself is the opportunity cost. We have now spent the better part of a decade on this adventure with self-driving vans. We have committed enormous public sums to its development, with those whose reputations have been pinned to it desperately tearing into every proven form of mass transit ever developed from bus to train in order to justify their decisions. Years and dollars that could have been invested into a transit system the tenth largest American city could rely on have been cast into the wind. It is now more expensive and more difficult to develop the kinds of transportation that cities the world over depend on every day, and future efforts to do so will be weighed down by these previous decisions. We are never getting that time or money back. And that's such a shame.

I feel obligated to hope that somehow this is a success defying all logic. It is, at the end of the day, a new transit line in Florida, technically. But failing that, I hope that in the event of its failure, we have leadership that understands why and how this happened, takes the dearly needed steps to avoid repeating these mistakes once again, and seeks to make real investments in making it easier to get around Jacksonville. A strong start would be for the city to carefully reevaluate the value of spending $240 million in local option gas tax dollars to half-demolish the Skyway in order to replace it with roads for vans.

[Charles Hunter]

There were torrential rains in some parts of town today (e.g., Arlington). Did downtown have these 'blinding' rains? If so, how did the Ford Vans NAVIgate the weather?

[thelakelander]

I passed two headed into downtown from Arlington about 15 minutes ago. Both empty and being driven slowly by humans. Also zero people waiting for a ride between the stadium and Julia Street. At least there's the excuse of rain this afternoon rush hour.

[Ken_FSU]

I briefly watched one that appeared to randomly and inexplicably stop on a dime.

Could imagine that would be very jarring for its passenger.

[thelakelander]

Hopefully they make the riders wear seat belts. Back in 2019 in Orlando, that's what the Beep attendant/driver made riders do.

[jaxlongtimer]

I think the ultimate way to kill U2C is for someone or group to compile cost per passenger mile (using JTA's most optimistic numbers, even if totally unrealistic) and show that cost in comparison to buses, Uber, Waymo, street cars, BRT, etc.... almost any other transit mode one can find.  Throw in horse and buggy even (can a horse be autonomous?  ).  We all know that U2C will be far more costly.

Then, publicize like crazy the results and embarrass the heck out of U2C supporters.  And, hope the City Council wakes up and puts their foot down if JTA doesn't back down voluntarily (a very unlikely scenario but maybe the board smells the coffee and overrides the staff).

[Jax_Developer]

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-build-autonomous-mass-transit-system-matthew-chang-pe-xshpc

https://x.com/matthewachang/status/1908981049092436010

https://x.com/matthewachang/status/1935783258135908498?s=46

This person claims to be the first "automation employee" for JTA & was personally called by Nat Ford for the position to build out the U2C in 2017. People might be familiar with him, but the oddity here is that Chang Robotics was founded 2017, so the business quite literally had zero experience in the marketplace. His jobs prior are all construction related... Not trying to criticize him too much, I'm more so shocked that JTA felt comfortable selecting him as the U2C messiah in the first place.

When you read his post, it's extremely obvious he is in way over his head.

Here's a live look at the control room where engineers and autonomous vehicle technicians from Beep, Inc. and JTA sit side by side. It's a mini version of what Waymo operates.

I want remind everyone this building cost $2k per square foot to build. This was basically the one room that could inflate those costs. This is quite literally a screen cluster with some desks. Truly impressive equipment.

While in their chairs they are monitoring vehicle behaviors and optimizing the "map". For autonomy... it's all about the map.

This is so incorrect, it's not even funny. The map is the most important for closed or semi-closed circuits. The known barrier for years has been code efficiency w/ sensors. Read any article about it or talk to anyone from Waymo/Tesla. This is almost implying that the system is not fully autonomous like Waymo is & primarily requires a well-defined "map" to operate with autonomy?? GPS is so accurate in 2025, I can't believe a "map" is really the most vital item anymore.

EV battery pack, custom designed and installed by ROUSH CleanTech .

Ah yes, the leader in EV battery backs... ROUSH. Enough said here lol.

The "autonomous brain". Here you can see just how much technology goes into monitoring the hardware, sensors, and devices to make an electric-autonomous vehicle work.

I love looking at dated technology & paying a premium for it for the future & for innovation! What a clean motherboard. Great circuit design also!!

For readers from other cities - copy this playbook - and you too could have an autonomous mass transit system.

We quite literally did nothing new. We are just stupid enough to call it public transportation. 1,500 max passengers with 100 Holon Shuttles... or we could do the same capacity with 30 city buses... and even if we spent $1M per... that's only $30M. We spent $12M+ on the HQ alone. Literally every other example Beep has on their website are closed or semi-closed circuits on small tracks. None of the them in a city center of any kind.

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2025/jan/27/the-chang-robotics-fund-launched/

Oh, coincidentally, Chang Robotics announced a $50M fund this year & raised it in 6-months. Impressive with zero technical background, almost unheard of.

[Charles Hunter]

I have looked at the COJ website, but can't find it: a listing of the projects in the LOGT, with amounts budgeted and spent. Specifically, I'd like to know how much of the LOGT has JTA spent on the U2C and the Emerald Trail, and how much is budgeted for them over the life of the LOGT. Would make a great addition to the Mayor's Dashboard page.

[Charles Hunter]

Going back to the comments about the Ford Van making a quick stop. Will the Holon vehicles have seats for everyone, or will there be standing passengers? I seem to remember that some of the demo AVs have a mix of standing and seated passengers (around the periphery), in part to increase capacity.

[Jax_Developer]

Going back to the comments about the Ford Van making a quick stop. Will the Holon vehicles have seats for everyone, or will there be standing passengers? I seem to remember that some of the demo AVs have a mix of standing and seated passengers (around the periphery), in part to increase capacity.

Their stated capacity is 15. 10 seating, 5 standing.

[Ken_FSU]

This person claims to be the first "automation employee" for JTA & was personally called by Nat Ford for the position to build out the U2C in 2017. People might be familiar with him, but the oddity here is that Chang Robotics was founded 2017, so the business quite literally had zero experience in the marketplace. His jobs prior are all construction related... Not trying to criticize him too much, I'm more so shocked that JTA felt comfortable selecting him as the U2C messiah in the first place.

It's a valid question. Seems like a good dude - loves his family, supports social causes, strong supporter of diversity in the workplace. By his own admission (here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Vzr07VONDU), at the time that he was hired by Nat Ford, he was recently fired from his job, was an MBA student at JU, was kicking around the idea of launching a startup, and saw advanced manufacturing as a space that wasn't overly crowded. Not sure about AV specifically, but I believe a lot of his background was in large-scale international factory automation and automated systems, so the experience was more relevant than traditional construction. Interesting choice, and to his credit, he contributed toward bringing "the thing" to life for JTA even if it's the wrong thing for the city, but with $500 million in public dollars on the line (for comparison, Chang Robotics's total revenue for 2020 was $3 million - https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2021/may/20/matthew-chang-chang-industrial-closed-office-opens-a-door/), would love to know more about how the hire happened.

Would also like to know more about the existing relationship. Even though Chang himself only worked at JTA from 2017 to 2019 as Program Administrator for the U2C, I'd be curious to know if Chang Robotics is on the JTA/U2C Payroll, and under what capacity. Would check JTA's financials, but of course if you try to check the financial statements of the public transit agency we're all paying for, it goes to a 404 page (https://www.jtafla.com/about-jta/financial/).

RE: Chang, these things always tend to fly under the radar in Jacksonville, but this random blog post, that I'm sure almost no one has read, is one of the most damning pieces of evidence there is against the U2C. Here, we have the first employee and key designer the U2C project, flat-out admitting that the U2C wasn't developed with the best interests of the public in mind. Rather, it was essentially developed as a PR stunt to put us in the same category as California or Las Vegas. And, to that end, it remains absolutely disgraceful that JTA leadership would cast Jacksonville's real public and mass transportation needs as a city to the side to focus on a risky, unproven vanity project. 99.99% of Jacksonville residents don't want to be #1 in transportation leadership, they just want a dependable, cost-effective transit system to make the city more equitable and user friendly.

The Why Behind Jacksonville's Autonomous Future by Matthew Chang

https://www.changrobotics.ai/post/the-why-behind-jacksonville-s-autonomous-future

Florida has one of the most aggressive positions towards autonomous vehicles. Our government leaders in Jacksonville and Florida see this as an opportunity to lead the nation and lead the world, which is why they have been pushing this initiative to be as competitive as California or Las Vegas. Jacksonville is leading because we were the ones who wanted to do it. We were competing against San Francisco, Boston, Austin, Texas, Chicago, a lot of places that you would think would at least be political front runners or obvious front runners, but we approached it with the vision of as just a public sector, we can't innovate. We have to step out of the box for how the public sector normally operates.

We have executive leadership at a state level that is taking a stance to make 20 year decisions and is generating opportunities for the JTA programs, and entrepreneurial start-up's like ourselves to get into this industry and base it in Florida because we are taking the first step. We must change our mindset...

As a baseline with any technology, you must prove something on an alpha level before you go to the beta level, but at the same time, you must take risks. So, as a city, if we want to be number 1, and we want to be first, we are going to have to take some risks. If we keep it on the ground level and understand how these autonomous vehicles are going to work, we can do it here in Jacksonville or do it in Las Vegas, so it is a fantastic time to be a Jacksonville resident.

On this piece:

Oh, coincidentally, Chang Robotics announced a $50M fund this year & raised it in 6-months. Impressive with zero technical background, almost unheard of.

Sounds like this might not be the case.

Biz Journal: Jacksonville tech leader launches $50M VC fund

https://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2025/01/23/chang-robotics-venture-capital-fund.html

Instead of going the traditional route of a typical VC fund where it raises capital first then selects companies, the Chang Robotics Fund is doing the reverse. Six companies have already been pre-selected and confirmed, Chang told the Business Journal, and it aims to invest in a minimum of 10 companies. Of those six unspecified companies, Chang intends to deploy capital into five of them in 2025, complete with public announcements over the next several months.

Biz Journal: Jacksonville VC firm backs robotics startups in automation, healthcare

https://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2025/07/01/chang-robotics-fund-announcement-2025.html

The Chang Robotics Fund, a Jacksonville-based venture capital firm founded by engineer and entrepreneur Matthew Chang, announced Monday it has deployed its first round of capital into five U.S.-based startups. The announcement delivers on a plan first outlined by Chang earlier this year, when he told the Business Journal that the fund would reverse the typical venture capital model by selecting companies upfront, then raising capital from investors with pre-negotiated terms. Monday's announcement represents the fund's first formal deployment of capital from what will ultimately be a $50 million portfolio. Funding allocations were not disclosed.

In a January interview, Chang said the fund's differentiator is its hands-on approach — providing not just capital but also engineering, project management and operational support.

Interesting that one of the firms "hand-selected" to receive the VC that Chang Robotics has raised to date is Kodiak Tech, where Chang has close connections and has been Chairman of the Board since 2022. Not unheard of if disclosed, obviously, but still interesting.

That said, interesting rabbit hole, but this 30+ albatross ultimately falls on JTA leadership, not those that they bring in to execute their vision.

[acme54321]

Chang Robotics has been trying to pitch my organization on automation/robots.  The problem is that once you get past the pitch I haven't been able to find anything to substantiate most/all of their claims.