Five-Year Predictions

[thelakelander]

An updated look at where things stand headed into January 2021

Let's play a fun game. Pick which of the following oft-discussed/long-delayed/upcoming projects you expect to be completed by this time 2021. I've set a calendar reminder to revive this thread in five years. Winner gets a special prize.

JTA Regional Transportation Center - Yes - Completed

The District - No - Still a dream

Shipyards Remediation - No - Still a dream

Barnett Bank Building - Yes - Completed

Laura Street Trio - No - Latest update is construction will begin in early 2021

Metro Park Redevelopment (Existing) - No

Replacement Metro Park - No

Cowford Chophouse - Yes - Completed

Hemming Park Restoration/redesign - No - Off the radar

San Marco Condos/Publix - Under construction as of this month

Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate - Yes - Blown to bits and replaced with an $8 million lawn for the foreseeable future

Skyway Extension - No - We have dreams of AVs running in mixed traffic as the extension now

Downtown Aquarium - No - Never was a real proposal

USS Adams Mooring/Museum - No - USS Adams is scrap now

Landing Redesign - Yes - Redesigned into a $25 million lawn for the foreseeable future

AAF Connection  - No - Headed to Orlando, Disney and Tampa instead

Berkman II - No - Still standing but headed for demolition

Unless demolition and creation of lawns counts as something, only 3 of 17 projects listed were completed, with another just beginning site work this month after being proposed for 18 years.

[jaxlongtimer]

^ Forget speculating on buildings or infrastructure going up.  We need to project a list of demolitions.  What will be demolished in the next 5 years?

I'll start with some prospects:

Berkman II
Doro (not for long for this world)
Metropolitan Park
JEA's current HQ's
The Jail (Kahn will not want this near his projects so it will move up the list, $400 million cost be damned!)
Maxwell House (if Khan could find a way!)
Historic First Baptist building
School Board building
River City Brewing
MOSH
Multiple worthwhile historic structures not otherwise listed here

[Ken_FSU]

The old saying is to always be ready, because you never know when opportunity is going to knock.

The sad thing is, if we would have gotten our shit together coming out of the last recession and just focused on the fundamentals - partnering with Sleiman on the Wakefield Beasley plan for the Landing, cleaning up the Shipyards, properly funding historic rehabs, concentrating on street-level activity on Laura Street & the surrounding blocks, making a market-appropriate convention center work - we'd be in a much better place to land some of these businesses that are all relocating to Miami, Orlando, and Tampa.

I don't think we've seen a mass exodus of businesses like this for the last 20 years, and nobody seems to be considering Jacksonville.

[fsu813]

I don't think we've seen a mass exodus of businesses like this for the last 20 years, and nobody seems to be considering Jacksonville.

We made a video to bid for Amazon HQ2. That counts for something!

[marcuscnelson]

This is a painful thread. In some ways it really manages to feel like we've come out worse than we started.

The old saying is to always be ready, because you never know when opportunity is going to knock.

The sad thing is, if we would have gotten our shit together coming out of the last recession and just focused on the fundamentals - partnering with Sleiman on the Wakefield Beasley plan for the Landing, cleaning up the Shipyards, properly funding historic rehabs, concentrating on street-level activity on Laura Street & the surrounding blocks, making a market-appropriate convention center work - we'd be in a much better place to land some of these businesses that are all relocating to Miami, Orlando, and Tampa.

I don't think we've seen a mass exodus of businesses like this for the last 20 years, and nobody seems to be considering Jacksonville.

I wonder just how badly Curry beating Brown screwed us. It seems like a favorable Council and re-elected Brown in 2015, even if not the best, could have at least gotten the new Landing, and perhaps the Hyatt convention center if the Civic Council were listened to. Maybe with some encouragement we could have gotten the rehabs and Laura Street focus. No idea how the Shipyards might have gone with Brown in office, but I imagine he wouldn't have so brazenly acted in bad faith, or attempted to sell JEA for funding pet projects.

^ Forget speculating on buildings or infrastructure going up.  We need to project a list of demolitions.  What will be demolished in the next 5 years?

I'll start with some prospects:

Berkman II - Yes, more likely an empty lot than anything else though.
Doro (not for long for this world) - Yes, the apartments seem pretty likely.
Metropolitan Park - No? I'll be optimistic and guess that either the NPS kills it or Council does after begrudgingly approving Lot J.
JEA's current HQ's - No, enough of a possibility that someone buys it to renovate.
The Jail (Kahn will not want this near his projects so it will move up the list, $400 million cost be damned!) - Maybe, there's surprising public support for it, possible that the next administration could scrouge up enough money.
Maxwell House (if Khan could find a way!) - No, I don't expect them to go away anytime soon.
Historic First Baptist building - Maybe, depends on whether they continue with the Hobson Block plan or stay in the Lindsay.
School Board building - Yes, likely apartments.
River City Brewing - Yes, I'd be surprised if Related's project hasn't gone anywhere by next year.
MOSH - No, vacant structure pending a buyer.
Multiple worthwhile historic structures not otherwise listed here - 

[thelakelander]

I'll take a stab at this one!

^ Forget speculating on buildings or infrastructure going up.  We need to project a list of demolitions.  What will be demolished in the next 5 years?

I'll start with some prospects:

Berkman II - Yes, it will be another grass field

Doro (not for long for this world) - Yes, the developer has already received their building permits

Metropolitan Park - No - Whatever the Curry administration and Jags propose, add +5 years to whatever start date initially announced

JEA's current HQ's - No - I'm predicting JEA will sell it and that it will be adaptively reused eventually

The Jail (Kahn will not want this near his projects so it will move up the list, $400 million cost be damned!) - No - This was a pipe dream only affordable by selling JEA.

Maxwell House (if Khan could find a way!) - No - The plant is being upgraded. It isn't going anywhere in five years

Historic First Baptist building - No - FBC will eventually sell it

School Board building - No - It may be razed one day but that's more than five years out

River City Brewing - Yes

MOSH - No - MOSH will still be in there or just moving five years from now

Multiple worthwhile historic structures not otherwise listed here - Yes - More unprotected historic structures like the Times-Union, Kartouche, etc. will come down. This is Jax. I'd bet the house on this. At the same time, the change in historic trust fund incentives will save more than we've seen over the past five years.

[Houseboat Mike]

I thought I would just remind yall of these proposals, and visions, that our leaders tried to sell us...in 2016.

In case anyone wonders why Jacksons are cynical, here you go. 

[marcuscnelson]

Oh, geez. Crazy to look back after even just another year and a half and see how much hasn't really happened. Let's review:

JTA Regional Transportation Center - Bus terminals and JTA headquarters completed, rail portion indefinitely delayed, redevelopment of Prime Osborn site on indefinite hold pending relocation of convention center.

The District - Rebranded as RiversEdge, infrastructure work underway but vertical construction timeline unclear.

Shipyards Remediation - Park and museum spaces planned for site, timeline unclear.

Barnett Bank Building - Completed.

Laura Street Trio - Redevelopment indefinitely delayed, parking garage spun off to VyStar and nearing completion.

Metro Park Redevelopment (Existing) - Redevelopment of Kids Kampus into Four Seasons approved, construction start pending. Park protected by NPS, to be refurbished by developer.

Replacement Metro Park - Merged into Shipyards Remediation plan.

Cowford Chophouse - Completed.

Hemming Park Restoration/redesign - Purportedly soon to be underway.

San Marco Condos/Publix - Condos removed from plan, retail-only completed and opened, townhomes to be constructed nearby.

Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate - Demolished, purportedly to be replaced by mixed-use apartment plan.

Skyway Extension - Replaced by autonomous shuttle concept, purportedly to open in 2025.

Downtown Aquarium - Merged into MOSH replacement site at Shipyards.

USS Adams Mooring/Museum - Replaced by USS Orleck, permanent site delayed, opening on temporary site within weeks.

Landing Redesign - Park design still underway, incentives deal undergoing approval for mixed-use apartment plan.

AAF Connection - Indefinitely delayed in favor of ongoing planning for Tampa expansion, Orlando expansion to open next year.

Berkman II - Demolished. Proposed replacement increasingly unclear.

If you count the partial completions, we're up to... 5 out of 17, I think?

As far as the demolitions:

Berkman II - Completed.

Doro (not for long for this world) - Completed.

Metropolitan Park - Protected by National Park Service, to be refurbished instead.

JEA's current HQ's - Nothing yet, replacement HQ set to open soon.

The Jail (Kahn will not want this near his projects so it will move up the list, $400 million cost be damned!) - Nothing yet.

Maxwell House (if Khan could find a way!) - No.

Historic First Baptist building - Surprisingly no, FBC chose to renovate alternate site and sell campus piecemeal.

School Board building - Nothing yet, replacement planning underway.

River City Brewing - Completed.

MOSH - Not yet.

Multiple worthwhile historic structures not otherwise listed here - 

[thelakelander]

Most proposals don't materialize into reality and most development timeline numbers thrown out locally are pure baloney.

There are some good things going on, just not as fast as most people would like to see. Here are a few additional comments of mine in red.

Oh, geez. Crazy to look back after even just another year and a half and see how much hasn't really happened. Let's review:

JTA Regional Transportation Center - Bus terminals and JTA headquarters completed, rail portion indefinitely delayed, redevelopment of Prime Osborn site on indefinite hold pending relocation of convention center.

The District - Rebranded as RiversEdge, infrastructure work underway but vertical construction timeline unclear.

Shipyards Remediation - Park and museum spaces planned for site, timeline unclear.

Barnett Bank Building - Completed.

Laura Street Trio - Redevelopment indefinitely delayed, parking garage spun off to VyStar and nearing completion.

Metro Park Redevelopment (Existing) - Redevelopment of Kids Kampus into Four Seasons approved, construction start pending. Park protected by NPS, to be refurbished by developer.

Replacement Metro Park - Merged into Shipyards Remediation plan.

Cowford Chophouse - Completed.

Hemming Park Restoration/redesign - Purportedly soon to be underway. There's no construction planned anytime soon

San Marco Condos/Publix - Condos removed from plan, retail-only completed and opened, townhomes to be constructed nearby. Vertical construction on the Toll Brothers townhome project is already underway. Corner Lot has a large multifamily development underway, directly across the street.

Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate - Demolished, purportedly to be replaced by mixed-use apartment plan. No construction happening on this site any time soon

Skyway Extension - Replaced by autonomous shuttle concept, purportedly to open in 2025. Anything other than running a few human driven AVs on existing Bay Street lanes isn't happening before 2025.

Downtown Aquarium - Merged into MOSH replacement site at Shipyards. Like gondolas over the St. Johns, this was never a real project. A dream by backers with no land or money moreso than anything else.

USS Adams Mooring/Museum - Replaced by USS Orleck, permanent site delayed, opening on temporary site within weeks. I think the USS Orleck opens this week. I don't see this one going well in the long run.

Landing Redesign - Park design still underway, incentives deal undergoing approval for mixed-use apartment plan. As predicted here years ago, this will be an underutilized property for at least a decade and will cost taxpayers at least $100 million for a Landing replacement. We're now nearing $100 million in tax money and the latest deal has the tower completion date extending to 2029.

AAF Connection - Indefinitely delayed in favor of ongoing planning for Tampa expansion, Orlando expansion to open next year.

Berkman II - Demolished. Proposed replacement increasingly unclear.

If you count the partial completions, we're up to... 5 out of 17, I think?

[marcuscnelson]

I'd have sworn there was an article recently about something happening with JWJ. Figured something was moving forward.

Nice to hear San Marco is picking up. Still a shame the original East San Marco plan didn't work if a project next door did.

I thought the Hardwick plan with Carter was nearing the finish line?

I was only talking about the Bay Street project. I don't think the technology will get them any closer to what they want, much less the the legal environment, before the end up with a more expensive version of every pilot program already operating, except you have to pay a fare.

Fair point on the aquarium. Lucky happenstance that at least elements will be incorporated into the new MOSH, assuming that happens.

The American Lions project slipped? Damn.

[marcuscnelson]

Nine months since the last check-up in October 2022. With us closing in on 7 years since the original predictions, let's review (project names have been updated, with their previous names in parentheses):

Jacksonville Regional Transportation Center at LaVilla (JTA Regional Transportation Center) - Bus terminals and JTA headquarters completed, rail portion on indefinite hold, redevelopment of Prime Osborn site on indefinite hold pending relocation of convention center.

RiversEdge: Life on the St. Johns (The District) - Infrastructure work underway but vertical construction timeline unclear. Toll Brothers townhomes only known vertical plans at this time. Park planned.

Shipyards West Park (Shipyards Remediation) - Park and museum spaces planned for site, construction timeline unclear.

The Residences at Barnett (Barnett Bank Building) - Completed.

Laura Street Trio - Redevelopment indefinitely delayed by financing issues pending $64 million in city incentives, parking garage spun off to VyStar and completed.

Jacksonville Shipyards (Metro Park Redevelopment) - Redevelopment of Kids Kampus into Four Seasons and offices approved, infrastructure work underway, hotel scheduled for completion in 2026. Metro Park protected by NPS, to be refurbished by Iguana Investments.

Replacement Metro Park - Now Shipyards West Park.

Cowford Chophouse - Completed.

James Weldon Johnson Park Improvements (Hemming Park Restoration/redesign) - Fountains demolished, future plans suggested but not underway.

East San Marco (San Marco Condos/Publix) - Condos removed from plan, retail-only completed and opened, townhomes under construction or complete nearby.

The Hardwick at Ford on Bay (Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate) - Demolished, purportedly to be replaced by mixed-use apartment plan, said plan appears to be collapsing.

Bay Street Innovation Corridor (Skyway Extension) - Replaced by autonomous shuttle concept, purportedly to open in June 2025.

Downtown Aquarium - Never happened, elements in MOSH Genesis at Shipyards.

Jacksonville Naval Museum USS Orleck (USS Adams Mooring/Museum) - Moved to permanent site, state of future museum unclear.

Riverfront Plaza (Landing Redesign) - Park now under construction, mixed-use apartment plan likely to collapse.

Brightline Jacksonville (AAF Connection) - Indefinitely delayed in favor of ongoing planning for Tampa expansion, Orlando expansion to open within months.

Berkman II - Demolished. Proposed replacement unclear.

If you count the partial completions, we're... still at 5 out of 17, I think?

As far as the demolitions:

Berkman II - Completed.

Doro (not for long for this world) - Completed. Replacement apartments scheduled to open in September.

Metropolitan Park - Protected by National Park Service, to be refurbished instead.

JEA's current HQ's - Nothing yet, replacement HQ now open.

The Jail (Kahn will not want this near his projects so it will move up the list, $400 million cost be damned!) - Nothing but words yet.

Maxwell House (if Khan could find a way!) - No.

Historic First Baptist building - Surprisingly no, FBC chose to renovate alternate site and sell campus piecemeal.

School Board building - Nothing yet, replacement likely to be Florida Blue building.

River City Brewing - Completed. Replacement apartment plan has collapsed.

MOSH - Not at this time.

Multiple worthwhile historic structures not otherwise listed here -

[marcuscnelson]

Almost two years since the last check-up in July 2023. Now up to almost nine years since the five-year predictions, let's review (project names have been updated, with their previous names in parentheses):

Jacksonville Regional Transportation Center at LaVilla (JTA Regional Transportation Center) - Bus terminals and JTA headquarters completed, rail portion on indefinite hold, redevelopment of Prime Osborn site on indefinite hold pending relocation of convention center for new UF campus.

RiversEdge: Life on the St. Johns (The District, Healthy Town) - Infrastructure work has progressed but vertical construction timeline still unclear. Toll Brothers townhomes only known development at this time, some units completed. Park under construction.

Shipyards West Park (Shipyards Remediation) - Park and museum spaces planned for site, construction timeline unclear.

The Residences at Barnett (Barnett Bank Building) - Completed.

Laura Street Trio - Redevelopment still indefinitely delayed by financing issues and litigation, parking garage spun off to VyStar and completed.

Jacksonville Shipyards (Metro Park Redevelopment) - Redevelopment of Kids Kampus into Four Seasons and offices under construction, hotel scheduled for completion in 2027. Metro Park protected by NPS, to be refurbished by Iguana Investments later. New marina, restaurant, and event lawn planned.

Replacement Metro Park - Now Shipyards West Park.

Cowford Chophouse - Completed.

James Weldon Johnson Park Improvements (Hemming Park Restoration/redesign) - Fountains demolished, future plans suggested but not underway.

East San Marco (San Marco Condos/Publix) - Condos removed from plan, retail-only completed and opened, townhomes complete nearby.

The Hardwick at Ford on Bay (Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate) - Previous development plans have collapsed, status unclear.

Neighborhood Autonomous Vehicle Innovation/NAVI (Bay Street Innovation Corridor, Skyway Extension) - Replaced by autonomous shuttle concept, opened on June 30, 2025.

Downtown Aquarium - Never happened, elements in MOSH Genesis at Shipyards.

Jacksonville Naval Museum USS Orleck (USS Adams Mooring/Museum) - Located at permanent site, future permanent museum status unclear.

Riverfront Plaza (Landing Redesign) - Park now under construction, mixed-use apartment plan collapsed, new land deal for new plan recently approved.

Brightline Jacksonville (AAF Connection) - Indefinitely delayed in favor of ongoing planning for Tampa expansion, Orlando expansion in service.

Berkman II - Demolished. Proposed replacement still unclear.

We're up to 7 at least partially completed out of 17 now, with the opening of the Bay Street Innovation Corridor as NAVI and completion of some townhomes at RiversEdge. Next likely to complete is the initial phase of Riverfront Plaza, followed by the Shipyards development.

As far as the demolitions:

Berkman II - Completed.

Doro (not for long for this world) - Completed. Replacement apartments burned down before completion and now under reconstruction.

Metropolitan Park - Protected by National Park Service, to be refurbished instead.

JEA's current HQ's - Still nothing yet, replacement HQ now open.

The Jail (Kahn will not want this near his projects so it will move up the list, $400 million cost be damned!) - Still nothing but words yet.

Maxwell House (if Khan could find a way!) - Still no.

Historic First Baptist building - Surprisingly no, FBC chose to renovate alternate site and sell campus piecemeal.

School Board building - Nothing yet, Florida Blue building relocation canceled, JSO took space instead.

River City Brewing - Completed. Replacement apartment plan was revived with tower, construction still yet to begin.

MOSH - Not at this time.

Multiple worthwhile historic structures not otherwise listed here -

[Jax_Developer]

Thank you Marcus. The updates are helpful.