2050 Long Range Transportation Plan Update

[marcuscnelson]

For those unaware, the North Florida Transportation Planning Organization, which oversees the direction of federal funds for local projects and helps further regional transportation programs, is currently working on Path Forward 2050, the latest edition of the Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP), which acts as the overarching guide for the next quarter-century of transportation (and really community) development in the region. The LRTP is updated every five years.

The previous LRTP from 2019, Path Forward 2045, was notable for its confidence in the coming prevalence of autonomous vehicles and the degree to which it prioritized roadway and highway projects over other forms of transportation:



Path Forward 2050 is an opportunity to take a hard look at our region's transportation priorities and ask whether they are appropriate for what we want North Florida to become. It's a chance to ask if we should continue to spend 94% of our money on road construction or if refocusing that funding would lead to better outcomes. The only thing keeping us from ideas like rethinking if Level of Service is the right way to measure capacity, a real focus on complete streets with the safety measures people want, or a serious plan to move regional rapid transit forward, is a willingness to have those ideas and see them through. Getting local leaders (some of whom are on the TPO board) to push for a better LRTP is where that starts.

[Charles Hunter]

One problem with trying to direct the 2050 LRTP away from the U2C is something called the "Existing and Committed Network" which serves as the starting point for building the future transportation system. The "Existing" portion adds transportation facilities that have been completed since the base year of the prior update (2019). The "Committed" portion includes those projects with Construction funding in the Five-Year Transportation Improvement Program / FDOT 5-Year Work Program and any Strategic Intermodal (SIS) projects with funding in the first 10 years.

[Charles Hunter]

The Draft Goals for the 2050 LRTP are:
1. Encourage Safe and Secure Travel
2. Invest in Projects that Enhance Economic Competitiveness
3. Invest in Livable and Sustainable Communities
4. Enhance Mobility and Accessibility
5. Enhance Equity in Decision Making
6. Preserve and Maintain Our Existing System
7. Create Reliable and Resilient Multimodal Infrastructure
8. Enhance Tourism Transport Management
9. Ensure North Florida Is Ready for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles Future Technologies that Support Transportation

Note, there is a survey at the 2050 Path Forward link in Marcus' post.

[marcuscnelson]

The TPO is offering presentations to interested groups on the LRTP. Perhaps a group of folks here might be interested in some kind of virtual presentation on it and the Needs Plan projects? I'd be curious what's on there.

[WAJAS]

I'd be interested in it.

[Charles Hunter]

The LRTP is entering the home stretch.

First, the NFTPO has posted the "Final Survey" for the long-range plan: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/LRTP_finalsurvey_partners
Take a few minutes to respond. There are a few "open comment" opportunities, so let those creative juices flow.

The consultant, staff, and Steering Committee are reviewing the "Draft Cost Feasible Plan" (aka CFP) - a list of around 125 highway, transit, bicycle, pedestrian, and complete streets projects; plus about a half-dozen "boxed" items that provide funds for programs such as trails or ITS, and others, where the projects will be determined later. The schedule calls for the CFP to be finalized and sent to the NFTPO Board at their meeting on October 10th, in advance of the November federal deadline to adopt the 2050 Plan.

As you might expect, the greatest number of projects propose adding lanes to existing Interstates and arterials. The only "new roadway" is the already committed First Coast Expressway. Curiously, the next largest number of projects are labeled "Complete Streets" or "Context Sensitive" - a rather vague description. Following that group are about a dozen U2C projects for the five proposed routes (Bay Street, Northwest, Riverside, San Marco, and Springfield) in two groups: purchase Autonomous Vehicles (20 for each route), or "Implementation" of the service.

The LRTP (2050 Path Forward) website, includes an interactive map for the Needs Plan projects. I think they hope to have the Cost Feasible info up by early September.
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/d59e12e6f4aa4442ae1fe4e5faee756 

[marcuscnelson]

It looks like the final LRTP documents are out for approval over the next week or so by the TPO, including the Cost Feasible Plan:

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/d59e12e6f4aa4442ae1fe4e5faee756d#n-MGA9rg

According to the Citizens Advisory Committee, this appears to amount to about $4 billion in mostly road projects, a $900 million reduction from the previous LRTP, though there are still some trail and transit projects included.

On a concerning note, the "Regional Transit Projects" element, almost entirely determined by JTA, includes nearly $700 million in projects related to the U2C and autonomous vehicles. It is unclear if this includes funds already spent or currently being spent on the Test & Learn Program, Bay Street Innovation Corridor, Autonomous Innovation Center, and other AV initiatives. It does include plans to purchase dozens of shuttles for "door to door neighborhood service" beyond the U2C itself.

For reasons unclear, JTA included all Regional Transit Projects in the 2024-2029 timeframe, which does not appear possible with current funding, but upon request for clarification the authority responded "All dates have been updated for 'Committed' projects. 'Year Funding Available' not included for those without committed funding." I haven't yet seen a clear indication of where they included these updates, as the Summary Report dates 9/19 does not appear to include changed cost estimates.

[Ken_FSU]

Am I reading this correctly that the JTA plans to spend nearly $400 million to convert the existing Skyway guideways to U2C? This can't possibly be accurate can it? There's no rational universe where nearly half of our increased gas tax revenue over the next THIRTY YEARS would be earmarked to convert the existing 2.5 miles of Skyway tracks into elevated sidewalk for clown cars, is there? Someone please tell me I'm misreading this.

[tufsu1]

Am I reading this correctly that the JTA plans to spend nearly $400 million to convert the existing Skyway guideways to U2C? This can't possibly be accurate can it? There's no rational universe where nearly half of our increased gas tax revenue over the next THIRTY YEARS would be earmarked to convert the existing 2.5 miles of Skyway tracks into elevated sidewalk for clown cars, is there? Someone please tell me I'm misreading this.

$400 million was the quoted amount 3+ years ago (2021 $) to convert the existing Skyway and expand the U2C into neighborhoods.

The original estimate was that JTA would get $465 million in gas tax revenues over 30 years. The U2C was supposed to get about $380 million of that. As the bill worked its way through Council, approximately $135 million was reallocated from the U2C to the Emerald Trail. That left $250 million for converting the Skyway to the U2C.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2021/05/07/jacksonville-gas-tax-boost-could-put-150-million-into-emerald-trail/4994633001/

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2021/05/12/after-years-waiting-gas-tax-could-get-emerald-trail-done/5041668001/

[Ken_FSU]

Am I reading this correctly that the JTA plans to spend nearly $400 million to convert the existing Skyway guideways to U2C? This can't possibly be accurate can it? There's no rational universe where nearly half of our increased gas tax revenue over the next THIRTY YEARS would be earmarked to convert the existing 2.5 miles of Skyway tracks into elevated sidewalk for clown cars, is there? Someone please tell me I'm misreading this.

$400 million was the quoted amount 3+ years ago (2021 $) to convert the existing Skyway and expand the U2C into neighborhoods.

The original estimate was that JTA would get $465 million in gas tax revenues over 30 years. The U2C was supposed to get about $380 million of that. As the bill worked its way through Council, approximately $135 million was reallocated from the U2C to the Emerald Trail. That left $250 million for converting the Skyway to the U2C.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2021/05/07/jacksonville-gas-tax-boost-could-put-150-million-into-emerald-trail/4994633001/

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2021/05/12/after-years-waiting-gas-tax-could-get-emerald-trail-done/5041668001/

This is the specific quote from the Citizen Advisory Committee report Q&A, linked above by Marcus, that made my ears goes up.

[jaxlongtimer]

Someone explain to me again... how does spending nearly $400 million on the Skyway going forward compare to the alleged US DOT penalty for abandoning it?  No way the penalty approached this new investment number.  Just insane that we don't abandon the Skyway and put taxpayers out of their misery supporting it.  That's on top of it being used to support another boondoggle... the U2C.

JTA and City Hall have lost their minds.

[thelakelander]

^Yes, and that number is going to keep going up. And yes, some people have clearly lost their minds.

I have an Offshore Power Systems idea to sell you on. 

Sh*t will eventually hit the fan. It will just be a matter of how many millions are we going to blow in the process.

[jaxlongtimer]

^Yes, and that number is going to keep going up. And yes, some people have clearly lost their minds.

I have an Offshore Power Systems idea to sell you on. 

Sh*t will eventually hit the fan. It will just be a matter of how many millions are we going to blow in the process.

With OPS (company to build floating nuclear power plants for the newcomers to Jax), we got saved due to the company going out of business because only Jax was willing to buy them to support a "hometown" company.  Maybe history repeats itself as the U2C vendors coming here follow the same path when, once again, only Jax is fool enough to buy what they are selling.

[Charles Hunter]

The final version of the Long Range Transportation Plan's Cost Feasible Project List has been posted:
https://atkinsna.maps.arcgis.com/sharing/rest/content/items/8ed47ca985db4ca09d0fd7a6a5f81632/data

I have not looked at it yet.

So far (after the close of business Monday), Thursday's meeting of the NFTPO Board has NOT been canceled.

[Charles Hunter]

The NFTPO announced today that, like most other Jax government agencies, it will be closed Wednesday through Friday. It will announce when the Board meeting and LRTP Public Hearing are rescheduled.