Move over Austin, there’s a new #1 boomtown

[Zac T]

Apparently, not everyone is so happy to be in Florida....

They came for Florida's sun and sand. They got soaring costs and a culture war.

Florida has seen a population boom in recent years, but many longtime residents and recent transplants say rising costs and divisive politics have them fleeing the Sunshine State.

Florida has had a population boom over the past several years, with more than 700,000 people moving there in 2022, and it was the second-fastest-growing state as of July 2023, according to Census Bureau data. While there are some indications that migration to the state has slowed from its pandemic highs, only Texas saw more one-way U-Haul moves into the state than Florida last year. Mortgage application data indicated there were nearly two homebuyers moving to Florida in 2023 for every one leaving, according to data analytics firm CoreLogic.

But while hundreds of thousands of new residents have flocked to the state on the promise of beautiful weather, no income tax and lower costs, nearly 500,000 left in 2022, according to the most recent census data. Contributing to their move was a perfect storm of soaring insurance costs, a hostile political environment, worsening traffic and extreme weather, according to interviews with more than a dozen recent transplants and longtime residents who left the state in the past two years....

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/economics/leaving-florida-rcna142316

Do you actually believe this propaganda? NY is hemorrhaging residents and businesses to Florida. There has been an ongoing war on Florida by NY for sometime, but it's ramped up quite a bit since they have really started losing more high income residents and businesses. The article is filled with blatant lies and exaggerations. They quote a lady that says it is literally 100 degrees at night in Palm Beach. Last year there was 1 day in Palm Beach where the HIGH even got above 95 degrees all year. The lows are in the 70's and low 80's every night. This is an absolutely preposterous misrepresentation that is intentionally used to scare people from moving to Florida. South Florida is cooler in the summer than most places in the South. Nashville had 10 days above 95 degrees last year, Atlanta 20.

The political stuff is also overblown. I know many liberal and moderate people that have moved to Florida in the past few years and are very happy. If anything, many of them are surprised to see how much the national media has blown things out of proportion in Florida. Probably from slanted articles like this one.

Facts. The best parts of Florida are expensive. If you are not well off in states (outside of the northeast or California) you will be worse off financially here. If you are well off in other places, you can have an incredibly good life in Florida. If you are unhappy or not successful elsewhere, Florida will not magically solve all of your issues.  Every single person I know that has moved to South Florida from the northeast, Chicago, and California, is happier here than they have ever been in their life. These are all people that have always been happy and successful wherever they have been.

The outmigration of people from Florida is nothing new. Just go to the Western North Carolina mountains, where you will see more UF/FSU car stickers than any other school. It always been exponentially cheaper to retire there and is where many Floridians on fixed incomes go. Now that housing prices have gotten out control, it's even more tempting for people to cash in and live like multi-millionaires in more affordable places. My house has increased 2.25x from what I paid it for in 2018. For many people that bought homes in the 90's, it's 10x+. Many boomers have millions of equity in their homes and much less in the bank. It's almost foolish for them to not cash out. It has nothing to do with hating Florida. My parents live in NC, and they and their Floridian expat friends that can't afford a 2nd home in Florida are all jealous of the ones that can.

Working in the real estate industry, I agree 100%. I consider myself pretty liberal and have nothing but disdain for the governor and his policies but the fact is that there are a ton of people moving to Florida from all sides of the aisle and they love it here. Can't speak for SoFlo but the in-migration to Jax hasn't slowed and about 75% of inquiries I get are from out-of-state people with many being in their 20's and 30's from diverse backgrounds.

I'm sure there's many people that have chosen not to move to FL and they have valid reasons for doing so but for every person that chooses not to move here, there's 2-3 others that are jumping at the chance. Most people aren't as engulfed in politics as the media portrays and the average person will move to wherever they can make the most money to take care of themselves and their families while having an affordable mortgage/rent payment. The nice weather is just a perk most of the time

[Tacachale]

Florida is indeed continuing to boom, regardless of the politics. But much of that is momentum - for a long time we were a low tax place with a low cost of living. The housing and unaffordability crisis combined with comparatively low incomes has changed that dramatically in the last decade, so it's unlikely it can all keep rolling. That's where the hotspots need to channel the growth into investments to housing and quality of life so we're not left holding the bag.

[tufsu1]

To me it seems that the population and adjacent uses drive utilization much more than the materials, budget, or presence of a 60 foot tall LERP statue.

If it was only 60 foot tall, I might have had a more favorable view of the sculpture

[Jax_Developer]

Our growth is less obvious because most of it has been industrial. Austin was lucky to have several large corporations relocate their HQ's to Downtown. The corporate relocations have been keeping them going for quite a while, but that momentum has significantly stalled.

If you look at the greater JaxPort area, there's still millions of square feet under construction right now. That translates to a ton of warehouse/manufacturing jobs. Not to mention the Westside. Although the progress has slowed down, Jacksonville is still a top 5 industrial market in the country... translating to a huge surge in our workforce/population.

Added: https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2024/feb/09/northeast-florida-commercial-real-estate-industrial-still-setting-records-as-a-logistics-center/

Articles states we have 4.7M square feet of speculative industrial space under construction. Think about how crazy that is...

[Todd_Parker]

To me it seems that the population and adjacent uses drive utilization much more than the materials, budget, or presence of a 60 foot tall LERP statue.

If it was only 60 foot tall, I might have had a more favorable view of the sculpture

The Cloud Gate (silver bean) sculpture is one of the most photographed spots in Chicago. It is unique and different and draws people in. Jacksonville lacks something similar and the 'Jax' sculpture would certainly turn another ho-hum park into something people actually talk about.

[iMarvin]

The video at the top of that Austin Statesman article was telling. A time-lapse of the Austin skyline from 2005 to 2023. New tall buildings nearly every year.  Except for the presence/absence of the Landing, and name changes atop a couple of buildings, you could interchange the 2005 and 2023 Jax core skyline photos and only the sharp-eyed would be the wiser.

Austin is more than twice as dense as Jacksonville, so it makes sense. Most of the growth in Jacksonville is unsustainable suburban sprawl. It'd be nice to see Jacksonville focus on building up the urban core instead of approving projects that lead to more strip malls and highways.

[tufsu1]

To me it seems that the population and adjacent uses drive utilization much more than the materials, budget, or presence of a 60 foot tall LERP statue.

If it was only 60 foot tall, I might have had a more favorable view of the sculpture

The Cloud Gate (silver bean) sculpture is one of the most photographed spots in Chicago. It is unique and different and draws people in. Jacksonville lacks something similar and the 'Jax' sculpture would certainly turn another ho-hum park into something people actually talk about.

yes - people would get off I-95 just to see it. Imagine the economic development generated by people taking Instagram selfies.

[simms3]

CityLife - well said.

The video at the top of that Austin Statesman article was telling. A time-lapse of the Austin skyline from 2005 to 2023. New tall buildings nearly every year.  Except for the presence/absence of the Landing, and name changes atop a couple of buildings, you could interchange the 2005 and 2023 Jax core skyline photos and only the sharp-eyed would be the wiser.

Austin is more than twice as dense as Jacksonville, so it makes sense. Most of the growth in Jacksonville is unsustainable suburban sprawl. It'd be nice to see Jacksonville focus on building up the urban core instead of approving projects that lead to more strip malls and highways.

Well, unfortunately you have a lot of types who oppose density when it really counts.  The fact that this combo self-storage + affordable multifamily generates so much controversy on the Southbank is a fruit of the mentalities.  I am hearing from folks now on this issue in particular more about the fact that it is 10 stories now than I am hearing about the self-storage aspect.  10 stories on the Southbank is considered "way out of scale" for the area.

The ADU ordinance that was passed got heated in debate along the way and then was neutered in various ways.  Now there is legislation being proposed to allow quad-plexes in certain RLD-40 areas within parts of the urban core.  The rumor mill is that Joe Carlucci was all about it until he learned it was proposed for San Marco as well.  Jimmy Peluso seems to be really on board, but he might be alone.

We can't have density here because urban core "high-minded" people are for it until they're against it because they don't actually want it near them, and the environmental movements control development patterns in the suburban areas and necessitate "open space" to the point where everything is developed without private personal yards and at about 2500 ppsm, no more no less.

[Jax_Developer]

Our zoning code is wildly flawed, hence why we need overlays to 'save' areas deemed worthy.

Here's all our residential zonings: RLD's, RMD's, RHD's, CRO, RPI, NC & CBD.

CRO, RPI, NC all REQUIRE mixed-use (otherwise you are just using RMD)... which other code will make this nearly impossible to implement without a PUD. RHD zoning doesn't exist really... less than 0.001% of our urban area is zoned it. CBD is self-explanatory.

So, 90% of our residential development is falling within two zoning's categories... which only dictate frontage & density within each category. When areas like Avondale, San Marco, etc. want to keep their "character" they passed overlays to allow for a much denser development pattern. The problem with overlays, is that they typically are intended to further restrict end-uses, not allow more. In RMD-S for example, you can do much more than RMD-B/C/D. Same goes for the RAP overlay.

So when any change is proposed for the actual zoning code, these areas (which have more influence DT than any other neighborhoods) restrict any meaningful changes. Because... the zoning code would allow all of these terrible things to happen.. like non-SFH dominated neighborhoods within 5 minutes of DT! Oh the horror!

[Skybox111]

I don't see a problem with 10 story res / storage building being there every city in us and world has them. These people complaining when they are on the other side of the highway border not downtown southbank which is high density. Traffic will be bad well more people are living here part of growing up. Peninsula tower being worked on with workers going in and out fixing balconies going through your apartment even when your at work you probably would put your stuff or valuables somewhere else like storage since it would be a long time of redoing that building. A fire that happened renting apartment. News from another city a worker on camera was going through a man's apartment going through his stuff in his apartment when he was supposed to be installing a smoke detector and stole some candy and the man wants answers who the complex is hiring. Traveling by plane train or vehicle living from one city to moving here or moving to another location probably want self storage unit. This building The 10-floor project would include 136,000 square feet of self-storage on the third through sixth floors, 100 multifamily units on the seventh through 10th floors, parking on the second floor and 14,500 square feet of ground-floor retail or office space. Some of the residential units would be designated as affordable housing. Feels more of a win residential some affordable units parking ground floor retail or office space. These storage units are useful. https://youtu.be/OVG3INDbtsU?si=ji6JT0EhAu2rj1GY

[Skybox111]

https://images.app.goo.gl/fkA6Ls7D9A6BQgii7
https://images.app.goo.gl/ohqpwQrKdkUzfji49
https://images.app.goo.gl/p3BVdSADZwXk2Kps8

[vicupstate]

South Florida is cooler in the summer than most places in the South. Nashville had 10 days above 95 degrees last year, Atlanta 20.

Now factor in the humidity.