Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023

[jaxlongtimer]

What incentive does Gibson have to take GOP money and sabotage her own party? Does she legitimately think she can make it to the final 2?

I think the real question is, regardless of any scenario considered, can she win, period?  I have my doubts as stated above:  lack of money, mild name recognition, a potentially smaller base, historically lower voter turnout/enthusiasm of her base, etc.

I can only speculate as to her motives but they might include the usual suspects:  ego, delusion, relying on an echo chamber who says she has a chance, a nothing-to-lose, only-to-gain attitude, to build name recognition for a future opportunity, a chance to put a spot light on her community priorities and pull the other candidates into discussing/addressing those and maybe even extracting some electioneering promises to hold them accountable later, a promise from the GOP for "rewards" down the road... or, sincerely running on principal and that she can win if she plays her cards right.  She could also back out before the election, having extracted something from Deegan or others that she wants in return for her endorsement/delivering her base.

As noted, regardless, at this point, her entry does not bode well for Democrats taking the office given our mayoral election history of recent times (though Alvin Brown did manage to be the exception one time - albeit against a very woke Republican.  Not going to happen this time.)

But, as they say, that's why they play the game.  You never know...

[Steve]

I do agree 2011 was an odd set of circumstances. After the First Election Mike Hogan had a 65-35 advantage in the polls over Alvin Brown. Then the strangest thing happened - Mike Hogan's people let him talk in public; HUGE mistake. After that, a couple of big donors broke with Hogan, and it became a race. Additionally, Brown got the vote out in a few key precincts and districts.

[Tacachale]

Anybody who thinks Audrey Gibson didn't come to play is kidding themselves. She's got a strong base and has been a well liked and respected leader in the state legislature.

[tufsu1]

What incentive does Gibson have to take GOP money and sabotage her own party? Does she legitimately think she can make it to the final 2?

well Alvin Brown finished #2 in the 2011 first election because two moderate Republicans split the vote. As noted in the post above, she should be taken seriously and could very well make the runoff.

[marcuscnelson]

Realized I forgot to update this.

As [long] anticipated, JaxChamber CEO Daniel Davis launched his campaign for Mayor last month, after accumulating more than $4 million in campaign funds through his political committee. He is officially the fourth Republican and ninth overall candidate to join the race.

[jaxlongtimer]

Realized I forgot to update this.

As [long] anticipated, JaxChamber CEO Daniel Davis launched his campaign for Mayor last month, after accumulating more than $4 million in campaign funds through his political committee. He is officially the fourth Republican and ninth overall candidate to join the race.

Most people I talk to, including the many disappointed former Curry supporters, consider Daniel Davis as Curry 2.0.  Davis is clearly the "establishment" candidate so expect more of the status quo if he is elected.  If you approve of Curry, he is your guy.  If not, better seek out another candidate. 

[fsu813]

Realized I forgot to update this.

As [long] anticipated, JaxChamber CEO Daniel Davis launched his campaign for Mayor last month, after accumulating more than $4 million in campaign funds through his political committee. He is officially the fourth Republican and ninth overall candidate to join the race.

Most people I talk to, including the many disappointed former Curry supporters, consider Daniel Davis as Curry 2.0.  Davis is clearly the "establishment" candidate so expect more of the status quo if he is elected.  If you approve of Curry, he is your guy.  If not, better seek out another candidate. 

Definitely not Curry 2.0

Curry has had a uniquely contentious time in office. Many see Davis as a return to a more Peyton-ish type of governing: cordial & competent.

[vicupstate]

Peyton and Curry were pawns in the GOP's power accumulation chess game. Neither was particularly qualified nor had any real vision for the city. Their mediocre accomplishments were sufficient for an electorate that expects nor desires anything else. Davis appears cut from the same cloth. 

[Steve]

Many see Davis as a return to a more Peyton-ish type of governing: cordial & competent.

You think so? I mean, Peyton was certainly cordial, but I felt like the job overwhelmed him at times. I mean it's a tough gig for sure, but I equated Peyton's takeover from Delaney as the equivalent of getting in a moving rowboat then when Peyton took the helm, he stopped rowing. The boat moved forward for a while thanks to Delaney's 8 years of rowing, then he blamed the lack of progress on things on the financial crisis. While that certainly was real for the final 3 years of his second term, it doesn't explain the lack of forward moving in the first 5 other than riding the current that was already there.

[fsu813]

Their mediocre accomplishments were sufficient for an electorate that expects nor desires anything else. Davis appears cut from the same cloth. 

I'd argue agenda for the next mayor is largely already written, no matter what "vision" they have: pump money into Downtown redevelopment, manage infrastructure/resiliency issues, and make progress on affordable housing availability. Anything else is around the edges.

[Charles Hunter]

fsu813, you forgot "Keep the Jaguars happy."

[fsu813]

Jags are Downtown development. Same pot. To me, anyway.

[jaxlongtimer]

Their mediocre accomplishments were sufficient for an electorate that expects nor desires anything else. Davis appears cut from the same cloth. 

I'd argue agenda for the next mayor is largely already written, no matter what "vision" they have: pump money into Downtown redevelopment, manage infrastructure/resiliency issues, and make progress on affordable housing availability. Anything else is around the edges.

I am not sure I agree. All the candidates will talk to these issues but which ones will really take them head on once elected?  I certainly don't see Davis' leadership at the Chamber leading to anything more substantive than lip service, particularly on the last two issues you list, with no real follow ups.  Consider that the Chamber pretty much overlaps the influential and controlling membership of the Civic Council and the large campaign donor class and tell me that their chosen candidate will be different than the past.

On the first issue, it's hard to justify pumping more money into Downtown over what has already been invested given the track record of little return.  As discussed on the Jaxson, more money for Downtown isn't necessarily the ultimate fix for it.  A lack of vision, lack of appreciation for historic preservation, no rational and consistent master plan, chasing pots of gold at the end of rainbows, poor leadership... that all needs to change before one can justify pumping more money into Downtown.

The Chamber class certainly hasn't been out front on resiliency that I can recall.  But they have been out front on supporting Shad Khan's projects.  And, it has been gung ho on the questionably worthwhile deepening of the port in spite of studies showing it is certain to increase storm surge flooding of the City in the future.  So much for resiliency.

Regarding general infrastructure, where was the Chamber when it came to choosing how to prioritize the spending of the increased gas tax?  Did they speak for repurposing the hundreds of millions on the wasteful AVs to other more worthy infrastructure projects?  Have they advocated for repurposing developer incentives for infrastructure projects at-large?  Do they ever ask FDOT to do for Jacksonville what it does for other cities in Florida?  Do they ever promote mass transit issues?  Have they taken a lead on drainage or septic tanks removals?  Have they advocated for parks and bike paths?

Solving housing affordability is a complex and entrenched (and possibly expensive) issue with lots of contributing factors well beyond the control of just the mayor so what magic bullet in a 4 to 8 year term can a mayor offer that is credible?  Will a mayor be willing to offer City incentives on par with other developments to promote large increases in building affordable housing?  Given this issue has only recently risen in the public-at-large consciousness following a perfect storm of massive housing and rent appreciation, high interest rates and building costs and limited supply it may need to hang around a bit longer to gain greater political traction.  The current constituency for this issue likely speaks loud but may not be sufficiently large enough to deliver a lot of votes at the ballot box... unless, as in Silicon Valley, businesses and other essential service providers can no longer find enough employees because they can't afford to live nearby.  Only then, I suspect, will the community feel enough pain to grow this issue's stature.  I don't think we are there yet.

Crime, road and park maintenance, social infrastructure, education, economic growth balanced with growth management, zoning, traffic, neighborhood drainage... broad-based quality of life issues.... those seem to be the everlasting bread and butter issues that every mayor ultimately seems to be graded on.  I don't see that changing anytime soon.

[Charles Hunter]

Candidate Qualifying for the Spring 2023 Jacksonville elections closed about a half-hour ago. According to the Supervisor of Elections office there are seven candidates qualified for the ballot:

NPA
Omega Allen NPA

REP
LeAnna Gutierrez Cumber
Daniel Davis
Al Ferraro
Fred Keasler

DEM
Donna Deegan
Audrey Gibson

WRITE IN
Brian Griffin

https://www.duvalelections.com/Candidates-And-Committees/Candidate/Committee-Lists-Reports-Profiles

T. K. Waters will continue as Sherriff, Jerry Holland will return as SOE, and Jim Overton as Tax Collector, as none drew opponents.

The only other county-wide non-Council race to be contested is the Property Appraiser, drawing two Republicans (Danny Becton and Jason Fischer) and one Democrat (Joyce Morgan).

[pierre]

Will Daniel Davis ever have a commercial where he speaks?