Time for more real talk on JTA's Skyway plans

[jaxjags]

As much as I think the U2C is a stupid idea that's destined to fail in spectacular fashion, I'd be a hard yes on the gas tax if $150 million was shifted from the Skyway into the Emerald Trail. That's a huge concession from JTA. Genuinely believe that the impact of the Emerald Trail will be transformative enough to offset the losses from JTA dicking around with the clown cars. Can totally live with ~$750 million worth of quality projects in a $1 billion project list if it gets the Trail built. Let's make it happen.

I am pleased Matt is making this effort. This may persuade some hard no's to yes. I may become a yes. Also, as Matt said and I think we need to keep in mind is the funding of the septic tank removal. This MUST remain as part of the overall plan. That was the original focus of the LOGT, if we can believe the Mayor. The sceptic side of me wonders if showcasing the septic/sewer issue was to slip the U2C bye.

Regardless a city the size of Jacksonville should not have  septic tanks in the urban and near urban areas.

[Charles Hunter]

This came across my email inbox today, from The Verge (per their "About" page it is a "multimedia effort founded in 2011 to examine how technology will change life in the future for a massive mainstream audience."

After years of positive vibes about the future of autonomous vehicles and nearly unrestricted access to cash from Kool-Aid-drunk venture capitalists, the AV industry is confronting some hard truths. The first is that autonomous vehicles are going to take a lot longer to reach mass scale than previously thought. The second is that it's going to be a lot more expensive, too. And the third hard truth: going it alone is no longer a viable option.

...

For years, Missy Cummings, director of the Humans and Autonomy Lab at Duke University, has been criticizing rosy predictions about our driverless future. She's consistently warned that the technology is much further away and harder to get right than anyone in the industry cares to admit.

...

"It's kind of like the elephant in the room," she said of the shrinking of the AV world. ...

But Cummings doesn't think people in the industry will be able to ignore the truth for much longer. "There is an embarrassingly large sum of money that's been invested in this, so people feel like they have to keep going down that path because surely all these people who invested all this money can't be wrong," she says.  "Not everyone is delusional. Just most people in this business."

...

Reilly Brennan [general partner at venture capital firm Trucks] thinks the concept of autonomous vehicles that can drive anywhere under any conditions is still possible, but much further out than originally thought. They will require huge financial investments — "11 figures" by Brennan's estimates — and a willingness to tolerate zero cash flow until the technology is mature and safe enough to launch. There are only so many companies with deep enough pockets to take on that challenge: major car companies like Ford, GM, and Volkswagen or tech giants like Apple, Alphabet, and Intel. Everyone else is probably not long for this world.

The mid-level engineers always knew this to be true, Brennan said. It was the CEOs who were making the erroneous predictions about the availability of self-driving taxis by 2020. "I think the CEOs of those companies knew that they were going to be playing golf by 2020," he said.

The "11 figures" mentioned by Brennan, is tens of Billions of dollars.

[Charles Hunter]

I don't see, in the Emerald Trail article, where JTA has agreed to - much less supports - reduction of their $379 Million U2C LOGT line item. We get nice-sounding words about cooperating with the City, and diverting potential future federal funds to the Emerald Trail. [putting on full cynic hat] That way if those federal funds don't come through, they can say, "Well, we tried." and they still get the $379M for the U2C.  And, in their conversations "with attorneys ... about whether the LOGT money can be used for the Emerald Trail" are they coming from the viewpoint that it CAN be, or looking at how to PREVENT moving money from their U2C to the Emeral Trail?

JTA spokesman David Cawton said the agency "has been and will continue to be committed partners with the mayor's office and City Council."

He said JTA has been working with attorneys over the past few weeks about whether local gas tax money can be used for the Emerald Trail.

"We have been at the table regarding this very project in seeking redirection of federal dollars secured by the JTA to go towards the Emerald Trail, as well as utilizing JTA real estate along the trail," he said. "We will continue to work with City Council through this process."

[jaxoNOLE]

^JTA support would make it easier, but Council is under no obligation to give a dime more to U2C. I'm not sure this has the votes to pass, especially with full funding for U2C. I think JTA would be very unwise to take a hard line stance on U2C funding given the narrow margin for error and Curry's office backing the Carlucci amendment.

[jaxlongtimer]

^^ Most assuredly, Curry got Nat Ford on board before going on record that he supported Carlucci's plan.  Curry and Ford are tight (Ford even contributed to Curry's campaign) and have a long track record of seemingly working to avoid offending each other and/or supporting each other's priorities (Ford's Bay Street Innovation Corridor, Curry's Hart Bridge Ramp Demolition, etc.).  Curry also picks 3 JTA board members and we now know Curry expects his board picks to serve his interests.  As such, I suspect Ford knew this was coming before it went public and has agreed to this plan.

[jaxoNOLE]

So,  that being said,  does anyone have guesses on the vote count? Hazouri is on record estimating up to 6 votes in favor of a referendum, which suggests they'd be "no" if forced to decide for themselves. Does that translate into 13 likely "yes" votes? What's the margin of uncertainty?

[marcuscnelson]

The Civic Council wants to cut U2C funding from $379 million to $190 million.

https://twitter.com/mimendenhall/status/1391800426224291846?s=20

[bl8jaxnative]

This came across my email inbox today, from The Verge (per their "About" page it is a "multimedia effort founded in 2011 to examine how technology will change life in the future for a massive mainstream audience."

After years of positive vibes about the future of autonomous vehicles and nearly unrestricted access to cash from Kool-Aid-drunk venture capitalists, the AV industry is confronting some hard truths. The first is that autonomous vehicles are going to take a lot longer to reach mass scale than previously thought. The second is that it's going to be a lot more expensive, too. And the third hard truth: going it alone is no longer a viable option.

...

For years, Missy Cummings, director of the Humans and Autonomy Lab at Duke University, has been criticizing rosy predictions about our driverless future. She's consistently warned that the technology is much further away and harder to get right than anyone in the industry cares to admit.

...

"It's kind of like the elephant in the room," she said of the shrinking of the AV world. ...

But Cummings doesn't think people in the industry will be able to ignore the truth for much longer. "There is an embarrassingly large sum of money that's been invested in this, so people feel like they have to keep going down that path because surely all these people who invested all this money can't be wrong," she says.  "Not everyone is delusional. Just most people in this business."

...

Reilly Brennan [general partner at venture capital firm Trucks] thinks the concept of autonomous vehicles that can drive anywhere under any conditions is still possible, but much further out than originally thought. They will require huge financial investments — "11 figures" by Brennan's estimates — and a willingness to tolerate zero cash flow until the technology is mature and safe enough to launch. There are only so many companies with deep enough pockets to take on that challenge: major car companies like Ford, GM, and Volkswagen or tech giants like Apple, Alphabet, and Intel. Everyone else is probably not long for this world.

The mid-level engineers always knew this to be true, Brennan said. It was the CEOs who were making the erroneous predictions about the availability of self-driving taxis by 2020. "I think the CEOs of those companies knew that they were going to be playing golf by 2020," he said.

The "11 figures" mentioned by Brennan, is tens of Billions of dollars.

Back at the turn of the century, the media + General Motors had a run where they were talking about hydrogen powered cars being in the not too distant future.

20 years later, hydrogen cells running cars is still one of those things that is supposedly not too distant in the future.

growing algae for biofuels to replace oil is another one of those.  GWB had a big thing about it and switchgrass and such for a couple years.

History is full of these sort of technologies.

Brennan is right to say 100% autonomous is a thing, just ain't gonna be a thing anytime soon.

[bl8jaxnative]

Does Ford & his JTA cohorts realize that these robocars still struggle to see black people? 

Is that why they're planning on running them through white neighborhoods?

[marcuscnelson]

Does Ford & his JTA cohorts realize that these robocars still struggle to see black people? 

Is that why they're planning on running them through white neighborhoods?

The team is made up of a lot of black people, including Bernard Schmidt who is VP of "Automation & Innovation," so I want to believe they've given at least an ounce of thought to that. But it's unclear how exactly they're expecting to find the billions of dollars in R&D required to improve the technology for it to work.

[thelakelander]

The Civic Council wants to cut U2C funding from $379 million to $190 million.

https://twitter.com/mimendenhall/status/1391800426224291846?s=20

Here's a more detailed update:

The Civic Council says the Skyway has been a "failed federal experiment" and while the JTA conversion plan shows promise, the agency should find federal, state and private support for half the cost.

"The remaining $190 million should be invested in the road and transportation needs across the county to improve travel times, ease congested traffic areas, improve walkability and enhance pedestrian and bicycle-friendly transportation options," the council said in a letter sent to Mayor Lenny Curry and City Council members.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2021/05/10/jacksonville-civic-council-backs-gas-tax-increase-deep-skyway-cut/5024159001/

[marcuscnelson]

Interesting they somewhat quote Cumber with the "failed experiment" line. I brought that up to the U2C team when I visited and they brought up Detroit and Miami as being successful systems because they "fully built out" their people-mover networks.

It'd sure be nice if that $190 million could go into accelerating Amtrak & getting the ball rolling on commuter rail, even if we're going to be saddled with the U2C R&D, which at least now has to seek state & federal funding.

[jaxlongtimer]

The Civic Council says the Skyway has been a "failed federal experiment" and while the JTA conversion plan shows promise, the agency should find federal, state and private support for half the cost.

"The remaining $190 million should be invested in the road and transportation needs across the county to improve travel times, ease congested traffic areas, improve walkability and enhance pedestrian and bicycle-friendly transportation options," the council said in a letter sent to Mayor Lenny Curry and City Council members.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2021/05/10/jacksonville-civic-council-backs-gas-tax-increase-deep-skyway-cut/5024159001/

LOL.  Civic Council is reading the tea leaves too.  No gas tax passage if too much goes to the AV/Skyway.  They are saying to the Mayor we will match Carlucci's proposal and raise you $40 million just to be sure we don't lose this initiative.

If we are lucky, JTA has to go to the Feds for the other 50% after the gas tax passes but before they can spend any money.  And, then, the Feds say "hell no" as, even by their standards, this is an "off the rails" (no pun intended) "crazy experiment."  Next, JTA abandons the project and the remaining half gets reallocated to projects that will truly be good for Jacksonville.  And, we all live happily ever after... 

[thelakelander]

Interesting they somewhat quote Cumber with the "failed experiment" line. I brought that up to the U2C team when I visited and they brought up Detroit and Miami as being successful systems because they "fully built out" their people-mover networks.

It'd sure be nice if that $190 million could go into accelerating Amtrak & getting the ball rolling on commuter rail, even if we're going to be saddled with the U2C R&D, which at least now has to seek state & federal funding.

Assuming the U2C total cost is $423 million, I'd be in favor of slicing that LOGT number down to $61 million. Combined with the $44 million already secured for the Bay Street Innovation Corridor, that would be a 25% local match. If the project is viable, they should have no problem securing state and federal dollars for the rest. The extra cash saved would do wonders for lowering existing bus system headways and moving forward other initiatives like returning Amtrak to downtown.

[marcuscnelson]

Interesting they somewhat quote Cumber with the "failed experiment" line. I brought that up to the U2C team when I visited and they brought up Detroit and Miami as being successful systems because they "fully built out" their people-mover networks.

It'd sure be nice if that $190 million could go into accelerating Amtrak & getting the ball rolling on commuter rail, even if we're going to be saddled with the U2C R&D, which at least now has to seek state & federal funding.

Assuming the U2C total cost is $423 million, I'd be in favor of slicing that LOGT number down to $61 million. Combined with the $44 million already secured for the Bay Street Innovation Corridor, that would be a 25% local match. If the project is viable, they should have no problem securing state and federal dollars for the rest. The extra cash saved would do wonders for lowering existing bus system headways and moving forward other initiatives like returning Amtrak to downtown.

The $44 million is already made up into state, local & federal shares, and confusingly enough I'm not sure it could technically be counted in the cost of the whole system for those purposes. Focusing on the $379 million requested for everything beyond Bay Street, it looks like they'd be asking for about $95 million to have a 25% share. Which personally, is still too much to be betting on untested technology (again) but I'd live.

Which still leaves $284 million for the Emerald Trail, buses, Amtrak, and commuter rail. Assuming $150 million from Carlucci's proposal goes to Emerald Trail, we could perhaps spend $40 million on the bus service improvements (if I recall, that's more than any one of the FCF phases), ~$65 million on a local share to build commuter rail along the FEC (I'd like to imagine there would be a P3 with Brightline to include their funding as part of a First Coast expansion), and the remaining ~$30 million on the terminal, which would likely tie into the commuter rail work anyway (and perhaps include funding from Amtrak).

There, the idea's free as long as we make it happen. Hell, I'll write the amendment if we can do it like that.