Skyway expansion in Jacksonville at stake in proposed gas tax increase

[marcuscnelson]

^From what I can tell, mainly that it wouldn't be futuristic enough. I suppose there's something to be said for not having drivers. And I guess something about how they wouldn't be as integrated with all the "smart street" stuff. Maybe if we go with electric buses?

I think Bay Street is going to happen no matter what at this point, the federal money is already there, the procurement process is happening, all of that. But for all the other extensions, it's a question of whether enough of Council will refuse to approve the tax increase unless the money goes to an alternative.

Have they ever considered to run AV experiment down Bay Street and operating it separate from fooling around the the Skyway? After all, it is a demonstration project, moreso than something intended to meet the needs of a basic transit user. Might as well spend less on the demonstration and use the saved funds on transit and multimodal projects (hello....Emerald Trail system....) that bring a greater economic and quality of life benefit to a larger segment of the local population.

Does the Emerald Trail count as something gas tax money can be spent on? I guess one thing worth remembering is how they at one point wanted to convert the Skyway from LaVilla to Jefferson station into a U2C track, but that kinda went away.

Their attitude the last few years has largely suggested they don't just consider it a demonstration or experiment, but an actual transportation solution. Having the audacity to go to taxpayers for $378 million really screams that.

[thelakelander]

Honest question:

Is there anything about what's being proposed with U2C on Bay Street (or elsewhere) that can't be done better by simply spending $1 million on three mid-sized city buses (like the old Riverside Trolley) and having them loop up and down Bay with 3-5 minute headways?

Higher capacity, higher top speed, ability to operate in mixed traffic, a lot of existing stops already in place.

No clown app necessary, you just step onto the shuttle and call it a day.

Won't spur TOD, but neither will U2C, and it least buses won't break the bank for the next 30 years.

Just can't fathom why we'd spend 200x more on a system to the sports complex that can't even move people at scale or speed to events.

Since TOD isn't a big concern, a bus would work just fine.

[thelakelander]

^From what I can tell, mainly that it wouldn't be futuristic enough. I suppose there's something to be said for not having drivers. And I guess something about how they wouldn't be as integrated with all the "smart street" stuff. Maybe if we go with electric buses?

There are already driverless trains and buses. However, once you mentioned a mode as "not being futuristic enough" or not "smart street" enough, we're outside of the common sense approach for addressing a community's basic transit needs. We'll quickly learn that the average person could care less about whether the transit vehicle has a driver or not. Heck, even if they don't have a driver, they'll still need some type of security to make people feel safe being contained in vehicles with others they may not know. What will continue to remain important is reliability and being efficient enough for the end user.

I think Bay Street is going to happen no matter what at this point, the federal money is already there, the procurement process is happening, all of that. But for all the other extensions, it's a question of whether enough of Council will refuse to approve the tax increase unless the money goes to an alternative.

It will be interesting to see what the final result ends up being. My guess is that it won't be anything close to the Michael Jackson Billy Jean video renderings of Bay Street from a few years back.

Does the Emerald Trail count as something gas tax money can be spent on? I guess one thing worth remembering is how they at one point wanted to convert the Skyway from LaVilla to Jefferson station into a U2C track, but that kinda went away.

Yes, trails, bike lanes, sidewalks, etc. and other forms of bike/ped infrastructure are transportation projects that gas tax money can be used for. I'm quite surprised that the Emerald Trail has not been included in the list of projects to receive significant funding. The community payback on something like that will be far more reaching and inclusive than most of the identified projects, including the U2C.

Their attitude the last few years has largely suggested they don't just consider it a demonstration or experiment, but an actual transportation solution. Having the audacity to go to taxpayers for $378 million really screams that.

Unfortunately, this is a problem and could cost Jax taxpayers five or six times as much money as the Skyway did 30 years ago. My hope would be see the amount of funds dedicated to the Skyway reduced and to have those saved funds shifted to other worthwhile projects like the Emerald Trail system and actually brining back intercity rail downtown. I'd be willing to slice, dice and value engineer the U2C thing down to something less or something where locals provide the New Starts 25% funding with 75% coming from the state and feds.

[marcuscnelson]

It will be interesting to see what the final result ends up being. My guess is that it won't be anything close to the Michael Jackson Billy Jean video renderings of Bay Street from a few years back.

Looking at the proposed list of Bay Street Innovation Corridor projects, here's my guess.

• Integrated Data Exchange & Public Safety and Surveillance: This will happen, but in a way less impressive form than suggested. Half the city will be upset at the prospect of putting surveillance in a "good area," and the other will pretend that all crime happens downtown and surveillance is needed. I question how many companies will be scrambling to utilize the data until more is done to make using it worthwhile. They talk about the data being used to "increase value," but it's questionable what value there is to increase in the first place.
• Autonomous Shuttles: Some form of "autonomous" vehicle will eventually reach Bay Street, but it will be rarely used and likely not proceed past an experimental stage that goes incredibly slowly and requires an attendant of some kind. People will take Uber or use other forms of transportation instead. Mid-late 2030s it's either replaced by a more functional system or fades into history.
• Smart and Connected Signals: This will happen, but everyone will wonder what the difference was between this and the sensors that already exist.
• Pedestrian Sensors: This will be rendered nearly useless by the clashing philosophies of focusing on pedestrians vs getting as many cars through as quickly as possible. It's unclear whether mid-block crossings are actually being included or if this is just accommodating jaywalking.
• Street Flood Notification System: This will happen, but the challenge will be working with tech companies to immediately get the street closure/rerouting into their mapping apps.
• Smart Lighting: This will happen, it's a pretty standard solution.
• Wayfinding, Event Management, & Public Broadband Network: There will be too few kiosk signs, and the app will be riddled with bugs. The wifi and emergency call features will work fine if not a little slow, but the charging stations will be quickly abused and require repairs often.
• Solar Path: This is not going to happen. We'll have a few scattered panels on light posts, but little beyond that. Some system will exist to report power usage and "increase efficiency."
• Conversion to a Two-Way Road: This will take way longer than anyone expected, but people will be happy about it finally happening.
• Smart Waste Management: Everyone will laugh about how ridiculous the smart trash cans are, but will be happy trash cans exist.

Looking beyond Jax, one curious point is how Houston's "Innovation Corridor" is along a light rail line and connects multiple universities, hospitals, and entertainment destinations. And more importantly, demonstrates the idea of an innovation corridor as a hub to spur private development rather than just... a place where information is and people feel compelled to add value to data for some reason.

Compare the first paragraph for Bay Street's Innovation Corridor:

Imagine a city that connects people, places and information effortlessly. A city that uses data to make the most of our time and resources, and keep us safe. Imagine - a smart city that improves the lives of the people who live, work and visit there. The North Florida Smart Region Coalition partners are working together now to bring this idea of a smart city to life, right here in Jacksonville.

To that of Houston's:

Houston's Innovation Corridor is at the center of an extraordinarily powerful social and economic convergence. The four-mile-long Corridor is linked by light-rail, bike lanes, and pedestrian thoroughfares, and offers easy access to key industry and institutional players along with an unparalleled array of amenities.

Really goes to show the difference in thinking.

There are already driverless trains and buses. However, once you mentioned a mode as "not being futuristic enough" or not "smart street" enough, we're outside of the common sense approach for addressing a community's basic transit needs. We'll quickly learn that the average person could care less about whether the transit vehicle has a driver or not. Heck, even if they don't have a driver, they'll still need some type of security to make people feel safe being contained in vehicles with others they may not know. What will continue to remain important is reliability and being efficient enough for the end user.

Problem is, we're long past the common sense approach for addressing basic transit needs. JTA's messaging has long been "Transporting Jacksonville into the future!" and "reimagine the future of public transportation" and this blatant lie (emphasis mine):

Not only will AVs satisfy all of the program requirements, but they will also be the most cost-effective approach for new service extensions and are rapidly evolving in their capabilities.

[marcuscnelson]

Yes, trails, bike lanes, sidewalks, etc. and other forms of bike/ped infrastructure are transportation projects that gas tax money can be used for. I'm quite surprised that the Emerald Trail has not been included in the list of projects to receive significant funding. The community payback on something like that will be far more reaching and inclusive than most of the identified projects, including the U2C.

Their attitude the last few years has largely suggested they don't just consider it a demonstration or experiment, but an actual transportation solution. Having the audacity to go to taxpayers for $378 million really screams that.

Unfortunately, this is a problem and could cost Jax taxpayers five or six times as much money as the Skyway did 30 years ago. My hope would be see the amount of funds dedicated to the Skyway reduced and to have those saved funds shifted to other worthwhile projects like the Emerald Trail system and actually brining back intercity rail downtown. I'd be willing to slice, dice and value engineer the U2C thing down to something less or something where locals provide the New Starts 25% funding with 75% coming from the state and feds.

Interesting, I didn't think trails were included. And thinking about it, it really does say a lot that JTA decided to not bother seeking state or federal investment for U2C beyond the initial phase and instead ask for fully local funding. Nat Ford keeps saying that the whole country is watching Jax to see what U2C does, and I wonder if he'd ever considered why everyone is only watching while continuing to pour money into traditional transit like streetcars/LRT or BRT.

I'd been thinking previously about reducing AV funding and dedicating the rest to various other sources, including streetcar, but if the Emerald Trail can be funded with the gas tax, and seeing as the entire system is only $31 million, and remembering that transportation projects can be funded by other bodies of government, I'd change that plan to this:

• ~$20 million to return Amtrak downtown per this, perhaps with support from this program if possible. Make sure it's designed for the obvious possibility of Brightline coming to town, and prepared to support infill and complementary uses. Ideally somewhere along the way we'd have figured out a convention center solution.
• ~$31 million to fully build out the Emerald Trail Master Plan. Hopefully Groundwork Jax has a plan for maintenance.
• Optional~$20 million to overhaul the existing Skyway (which JTA already seems to be doing). Just to get another 10-15 years out of the existing system. This might actually be budgeted somewhere else already, and as such I am not including it in this figure.
• ~$115 million as the local portion of a 15 mile streetcar/LRT system, using the New Starts program. This is based on the Technology Assessment Report, assuming a $30 million per mile cost and requiring the use of existing Acosta bridge lanes for the vehicles. For the purpose of this estimate, I assume the existing system would be demolished. Ideally, any LRT system proposal would focus, after providing public service, on catalyzing private development in the neighborhoods it connects.
• ~$92 million to demolish the existing Skyway system and pay back the federal government.
• ~$10 million on establishing a RiverLink/I-295 Express Bus between Orange Park Mall and Avenues Walk. (I'd like to think this is too much, I'm just not sure.)
• ~$25 million to establish BRT (or just implement improved bus service) in new corridors, such as the beaches via JTB or on Southside Blvd.
• ~$40 million on complete streets downtown, ideally including two-way streets, improving lighting and sidewalks to encourage street-level activity.
• ~$45 million (the remainder) on further AV development, in hopes of it eventually serving as a circulator for places we wouldn't traditionally build heavier transit services in, like master planned communities or college campuses. Seeing the potential for private sector competition in the AV space, it'd be important to distinguish JTA AVs as providing unique public transit services that the private sector can't or won't provide. I've always thought they would be a great replacement for safe rides at colleges if they can figure out traffic and pedestrians.

[icarus]

Nat Ford keeps saying that the whole country is watching Jax to see what U2C does...

This may be spot on.  Maybe, this isn't about effective transportation but about one man trying to build a resume on our dime. Perhaps he wants to pour enough money into a obviously flawed system in hopes it doesn't fail on the public stage.

[marcuscnelson]

Nat Ford keeps saying that the whole country is watching Jax to see what U2C does...

This may be spot on.  Maybe, this isn't about effective transportation but about one man trying to build a resume on our dime. Perhaps he wants to pour enough money into a obviously flawed system in hopes it doesn't fail on the public stage.

Well, no. Nat Ford is the CEO, but he's not the only person who decides things. JTA has a board appointed by the Governor and Mayor, who ultimately decide on projects like these. I think it's more a matter of them being ironically short-sighted about the likelihood of autonomous vehicle technology being production ready within a few years, and having eyes bigger than wallets when it came to the cost of the projects. They've done this plenty of times before, including with BRT and the JRTC.

In this case, they got a mandate to "keep and extend" the Skyway, wrongly believed that AVs would be a cheap, magical jack of all trades to deliver on that mandate within a few short years, and when that proved incorrect, decided against starting over with a more realistic plan and barreled ahead. Think Brexit, in a sense, where people didn't really know what they were getting when it was initially proposed.

The question is whether what happened with BRT & JRTC happens here, in that public outcry and political pressure is severe enough to force them to reduce the scope of the project. There's much less of a timeline for it, seeing as the gas tax will get looked at this summer, but if the goal is to seek scrapping the monorail to replace with LRT, this is probably the best time to make that case.

[thelakelander]

It will be interesting to see what the final result ends up being. My guess is that it won't be anything close to the Michael Jackson Billy Jean video renderings of Bay Street from a few years back.

Looking at the proposed list of Bay Street Innovation Corridor projects, here's my guess.

• Integrated Data Exchange & Public Safety and Surveillance: This will happen, but in a way less impressive form than suggested. Half the city will be upset at the prospect of putting surveillance in a "good area," and the other will pretend that all crime happens downtown and surveillance is needed. I question how many companies will be scrambling to utilize the data until more is done to make using it worthwhile. They talk about the data being used to "increase value," but it's questionable what value there is to increase in the first place.
• Autonomous Shuttles: Some form of "autonomous" vehicle will eventually reach Bay Street, but it will be rarely used and likely not proceed past an experimental stage that goes incredibly slowly and requires an attendant of some kind. People will take Uber or use other forms of transportation instead. Mid-late 2030s it's either replaced by a more functional system or fades into history.
• Smart and Connected Signals: This will happen, but everyone will wonder what the difference was between this and the sensors that already exist.
• Pedestrian Sensors: This will be rendered nearly useless by the clashing philosophies of focusing on pedestrians vs getting as many cars through as quickly as possible. It's unclear whether mid-block crossings are actually being included or if this is just accommodating jaywalking.
• Street Flood Notification System: This will happen, but the challenge will be working with tech companies to immediately get the street closure/rerouting into their mapping apps.
• Smart Lighting: This will happen, it's a pretty standard solution.
• Wayfinding, Event Management, & Public Broadband Network: There will be too few kiosk signs, and the app will be riddled with bugs. The wifi and emergency call features will work fine if not a little slow, but the charging stations will be quickly abused and require repairs often.
• Solar Path: This is not going to happen. We'll have a few scattered panels on light posts, but little beyond that. Some system will exist to report power usage and "increase efficiency."
• Conversion to a Two-Way Road: This will take way longer than anyone expected, but people will be happy about it finally happening.
• Smart Waste Management: Everyone will laugh about how ridiculous the smart trash cans are, but will be happy trash cans exist.

Cool stuff but this is the definition of a pilot featuring all the bells and whistles. A $30k watch is nice but not required to tell time. That's how I'd compare the Bay Street Innovation Corridor with the basic end user necessities of mass transit. I don't need to know about street flood notification if I need a ride from Kings Avenue Station to Central Station. I want to know that I can get to where I need to get, as fast and efficient as possible.

[marcuscnelson]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[thelakelander]

The question is whether what happened with BRT & JRTC happens here, in that public outcry and political pressure is severe enough to force them to reduce the scope of the project. There's much less of a timeline for it, seeing as the gas tax will get looked at this summer, but if the goal is to seek scrapping the monorail to replace with LRT, this is probably the best time to make that case.

LRT hasn't been on this city's radar in 20 years now. I think the goal of the political naysayers is to just kill the Skyway. There won't be any gas tax money going to a +$100 million project or idea that has not been pushed by JTA or COJ to date.  That's what makes this thing so crazy. Only in Jax can we find local funding opportunities (a major challenge everywhere) but screw it up it with crazy, half-baked, and super expensive risky proposals. Somehow, we find ways to make even the biggest local transit advocates seriously question things. Yes, others from the country are definitely looking. However, it could be equivalent to waiting to watch the train wreck.

[Charles Hunter]

Well, no. Nat Ford is the CEO, but he's not the only person who decides things. JTA has a board appointed by the Governor and Mayor, who ultimately decide on projects like these. I think it's more a matter of them being ironically short-sighted about the likelihood of autonomous vehicle technology being production-ready within a few years, and having eyes bigger than wallets when it came to the cost of the projects. They've done this plenty of times before, including with BRT and the JRTC.

I think you underestimate the trust the JTA Board puts into the CEO.  Someone (not me) would have to go back and look at Board minutes, but I would be willing to wager that it has been a long time since the Board last rejected a major proposal from staff (through the CEO).  With the exception of the FDOT District 2 Secretary, the Board members are not required to have any transportation background. And they don't. The current Board has 2 lawyers, 2 bankers, an accountant, and an apartment builder. So, they are going to trust their staff, especially when they aren't hearing any conflicting information.

PS - the FDOT representative is a "highway guy" not a "transit guy"; one of the 'bankers' is Abel Harding, who was active in earlier versions of this forum. (He may still be for all I know.)

[thelakelander]

The board makeup is definitely a flaw. It would help to have more board members with transit and transportation experience. It would be beneficial to the board, staff, Ford and the community as a whole.

[marcuscnelson]

The question is whether what happened with BRT & JRTC happens here, in that public outcry and political pressure is severe enough to force them to reduce the scope of the project. There's much less of a timeline for it, seeing as the gas tax will get looked at this summer, but if the goal is to seek scrapping the monorail to replace with LRT, this is probably the best time to make that case.

LRT hasn't been on this city's radar in 20 years now. I think the goal of the political naysayers is to just kill the Skyway. There won't be any gas tax money going to a +$100 million project or idea that has not been pushed by JTA or COJ to date.  That's what makes this thing so crazy. Only in Jax can we find local funding opportunities (a major challenge everywhere) but screw it up it with crazy, half-baked, and super expensive risky proposals. Somehow, we find ways to make even the biggest local transit advocates seriously question things. Yes, others from the country are definitely looking. However, it could be equivalent to waiting to watch the train wreck.

I suppose you're probably right. Although I wonder what else they would use the money for if they couldn't use it for this.

Well, no. Nat Ford is the CEO, but he's not the only person who decides things. JTA has a board appointed by the Governor and Mayor, who ultimately decide on projects like these. I think it's more a matter of them being ironically short-sighted about the likelihood of autonomous vehicle technology being production-ready within a few years, and having eyes bigger than wallets when it came to the cost of the projects. They've done this plenty of times before, including with BRT and the JRTC.

I think you underestimate the trust the JTA Board puts into the CEO.  Someone (not me) would have to go back and look at Board minutes, but I would be willing to wager that it has been a long time since the Board last rejected a major proposal from staff (through the CEO).  With the exception of the FDOT District 2 Secretary, the Board members are not required to have any transportation background. And they don't. The current Board has 2 lawyers, 2 bankers, an accountant, and an apartment builder. So, they are going to trust their staff, especially when they aren't hearing any conflicting information.

PS - the FDOT representative is a "highway guy" not a "transit guy"; one of the 'bankers' is Abel Harding, who was active in earlier versions of this forum. (He may still be for all I know.)

Perhaps I do. I feel like it's not unrealistic for a bunch of people without transit backgrounds to get caught up in a "ooooh that fancy autonomous stuff looks cool, let's do that" funk. But I guess I hoped for better from the guy who ran MARTA and SFMTA for a decade and a half.

[thelakelander]

I suppose you're probably right. Although I wonder what else they would use the money for if they couldn't use it for this.

Finding ways to spend money won't be a challenge. The Emerald Trail system, East Coast Greenway, two-waying one way streets, dedicated busways, bringing Amtrak to the JRTC, additional complete street and road improvements throughout the city, etc. are all potential alternatives that immediately come to mind.

[vicupstate]

Considering there is a multi-trillion Infrastructure bill about to be announced, wouldn't it behoove JAX to see what amount of THAT money would cover some of these projects before moving forward with this vote?