JTA planning to seek bids to build, run U2C

[jaxlongtimer]

So I'm confused about exactly what the end result/goal is - especially as it applies to the autonomous vehicles.  When they talk about expanding from 2.5 miles to 10, how much of that includes the actual skyway?  And, taking the stadium leg for example, would they ultimately leverage the train at street level?  Are they looking to extend elevated tracks anywhere?  Would love to see what this thing looks like with the middle cars added in too......

Blizz, if you go back over multiple threads here you will find many details about this. 

In short, all extensions beyond the 2.5 miles of the current elevated system essentially entail ramps (or elevators - can you imagine that?!) off the existing elevated portions to grade where the autonomous vehicles will continue their journey.  If you watch the video link posted earlier in this thread, you will see just how small and slow these vehicles are.  Further, I haven't seen any evidence that multiple AV's can be "chained" together so don't expect "middle" anything.

Aside from the outrageous $372 million JTA thinks (expect overruns) it will take to convert the existing system to AV's, the AV's duplicate many of the issues of the existing Skyway:  Carries very few passengers, moves slowly and utilizes unproven technology that may be years before being perfected.  Keep in mind, Google, Uber, Tesla and others have spent years and billions of dollars getting this right so don't expect JTA to figure this out anytime soon. 

Further, what JTA will end up with is a system that will have Uber, Lyft and other private-sector AV's as viable and likely better options to compete with.

[thelakelander]

So I'm confused about exactly what the end result/goal is - especially as it applies to the autonomous vehicles.  When they talk about expanding from 2.5 miles to 10, how much of that includes the actual skyway?  And, taking the stadium leg for example, would they ultimately leverage the train at street level?  Are they looking to extend elevated tracks anywhere?  Would love to see what this thing looks like with the middle cars added in too......

For something they're now asking for the neighborhood of half a billion dollars for, they've been surprisingly mum on details of how exactly this is all supposed to work. Part of that seems to be that they haven't actually designed the system yet, which seems to be what their chosen contractor for the Bay Street corridor is supposed to do.

They likely don't know. The contractor will probably have to attempt to figure it out. However, some of the links are super challenging. For example, how are you dropping down to grade at San Marco Station and getting into San Marco on San Marco Boulevard. An elevator is not a realistic option (if capacity is important) and crossing the FEC at grade and in mixed traffic doesn't sound really viable either.

The idea is that eventually the 2.5 mile Skyway is going to be converted to support autonomous vehicles, plus an additional 7.5 miles of roadway... adapted, I guess? to serve as mixed traffic guideways at street level. Somewhere along the way there are going to be ramps from the old elevated guideway to street level. In the end, the old monorail will be gone, replaced entirely with the pods. There would be no additional elevated tracks.

From Kings Avenue Station to Atlantic Boulevard would need to be elevated, at least until you get over the FEC tracks. No way, the railroad is letting these plastic things cross at-grade.

[blizz01]

Thanks for the detailed response.  Regarding middle cars, I suppose I meant monorail coaches as I was thinking about how the current setup is basically the front and rear only.

[thelakelander]

Further, what JTA will end up with is a system that will have Uber, Lyft and other private-sector AV's as viable and likely better options to compete with.

What you describe is a potential issue of forcing a square peg into a round hole. If we're going with personal vehicle sized AVs with elevators, we've lost the ability for the Skyway to move masses of people efficiently. Instead, we've turned it into some publicly operated rideshare service. At that point, the fixed Skyway infrastructure and slow speeds become a detriment. Uber, Lyft, etc. will make the $378 million project obsolete before its complete.

[thelakelander]

Thanks for the detailed response.  Regarding middle cars, I suppose I meant monorail coaches as I was thinking about how the current setup is basically the front and rear only.

They don't want to keep it a monorail. I don't this option has seriously been explored. Revisiting it may show that it is a cheaper option, although it is also an option that won't be feasible for extension to Riverside and Springfield.

[WAJAS]

Thanks for the detailed response.  Regarding middle cars, I suppose I meant monorail coaches as I was thinking about how the current setup is basically the front and rear only.

They don't want to keep it a monorail. I don't this option has seriously been explored. Revisiting it may show that it is a cheaper option, although it is also an option that won't be feasible for extension to Riverside and Springfield.

If I remember right, the manufacturers didn't want to support a monorail-based system. The real alternative would be a conversion to a typical APM system, like at airports, Metromover, Detroit, etc., that has broad usage. That'd require the removal of the monorail guideway.

[marcuscnelson]

^ I wonder why, monorails still seem pretty common. And funnily enough, they definitely looked at APMs at some point, there are still reports and powerpoint slides out there with renderings of the APM tracks on the guideway structures, and discussions of the Metromover. Yet for whatever reason JTA decided they wanted to be Uber instead.

Maybe this is a stupid question, but they really didn't think through the challenge of potential future extensions to places that weren't big fans of elevated guideways? Obviously it was probably too early to consider regular old streetcars again, but that seems like a big oversight, especially seeing as they expected it to connect to a rapid transit system.

[thelakelander]

^ I wonder why, monorails still seem pretty common. And funnily enough, they definitely looked at APMs at some point, there are still reports and powerpoint slides out there with renderings of the APM tracks on the guideway structures, and discussions of the Metromover. Yet for whatever reason JTA decided they wanted to be Uber instead.

They didn't go APM because you can't run an APM system at grade. Riverside and Springfield are two neighborhoods they want to extend the system too. Both would likely oppose an elevated transit system penetrating their historic districts.

Maybe this is a stupid question, but they really didn't think through the challenge of potential future extensions to places that weren't big fans of elevated guideways? Obviously it was probably too early to consider regular old streetcars again, but that seems like a big oversight, especially seeing as they expected it to connect to a rapid transit system.

Streetcars were not seriously evaluated by JTA back then. Basically one version of a streetcar was selected for that study and it was well known the vehicle selected could not operate on the existing Skyway infrastructure.

[marcuscnelson]

^ First quote kinda leads into the second quote. My point was that rather than more seriously study actual alternatives they just jumped to "become Uber" when AV technology was even more undeveloped than it is now. Clearly there's a reason no one else is just running these things in mixed traffic everywhere. And again, it's pretty bonkers that of all places, Jacksonville is supposed to be the first.

Re: streetcars, I meant when they originally devised the system in the 70s and 80s. I guess the point was getting the UMTA money, but still, weird UMTA didn't seem to consider that as a possible issue. But even now, I wonder if there's a way to demonstrate that the public probably doesn't want to pour half a billion dollars into pod cars, and argue for at least considering a different distribution of the money. Obviously I'm happy to offer one, but in general it seems reasonable that this kind of mistake should be preventable, even if we only have a few months to make a case for it.

[thelakelander]

UMTA did fund streetcar, heavy rail and LRT in other communities. The Skyway was specifically a demonstration project funded by UMTA to see if that particular type of technology could be effective within congested urbanized settings. Jax competed with cities nationwide and was one of the three cities to win. If Jax wanted to consider a streetcar, then they would have had to pursue a different program and funding strategy and let the APM demonstration project money go to another community.

[Charles Hunter]

In the original "Downtown People Mover" UMTA Demonstration Project, the vehicles were APMs. It was converted to monorail when the Southbank extension was built.  That is a big reason the guideway is as big as it is, instead of just the slim guide-beam like the Disney monorails - it carried bus-like vehicles.

[marcuscnelson]

According to this, demolishing the existing system and paying back the feds would cost about $92 million.

For $378 million they could do a lot of other stuff that would likely be more impactful than the world's first urban self-driving taxi network.

If it were up to me, with my amateur opinion, I'd say use it like so (figures are estimates):

• ~$15 million to build an Amtrak terminal per this, perhaps with support from this program if possible. Make sure it's ready for the obvious possibility of Brightline coming to town, and prepared to support infill and complementary uses. Ideally somewhere along the way we'd have figured out a convention center solution.
• Optional~$20 million to overhaul the existing Skyway (which JTA already seems to be doing). Just to get another 10-15 years out of the existing system. This might actually be budgeted somewhere else already, and as such I am not including it in this figure.
• ~190 million to build streetcar extensions into the areas already planned for U2C. This is based on the Technology Assessment Report, assuming a $30 million per mile cost and requiring the use of existing Acosta bridge lanes for the vehicles. For the purpose of this estimate, I assume the existing system would be demolished.
• ~$92 million to demolish the existing Skyway system and pay back the federal government.
• ~$10 million on establishing a RiverLink/I-295 Express Bus between Orange Park Mall and Avenues Walk. (I'd like to think this is too much, I'm just not sure.)
• ~$25 million to establish BRT (or just implement improved bus service) in new corridors, such as the beaches via JTB or on Southside Blvd.
• ~$46 million (the remainder) on further AV development, in hopes of it eventually serving as a circulator for places we wouldn't traditionally build heavier transit services in, like master planned communities or college campuses. Seeing the potential for private sector competition in the AV space, it'd be important to distinguish JTA AVs as providing unique public transit services that the private sector can't or won't provide. I've always thought they would be a great replacement for safe rides in colleges if they can figure out traffic and pedestrians.

[vicupstate]

According to this, demolishing the existing system and paying back the feds would cost about $92 million.

If Sen. Nelson or some other Congressman with some heft were representing NE FL then you could probably negotiate that figure down by 10-20 million. Even if JAX had to pay the full $92 million, it should be seriously considered. The 'experiment' failed and it needs to be shut down, IMO.   

[marcuscnelson]

I don't know what kind of pull Lawson or Rutherford has for that. Meanwhile JTA keeps fearmongering about how returning this money would somehow make them less likely to win federal money in the future. Not sure how desperately attempting to make something that isn't working work accomplishes that, but clearly they're trying.

And CM Cumber is the first (besides Rory Diamond, who just refuses to consider changing taxes at all) to publicly stand in opposition.

"To spend more money on a system that has never worked since (opening) and was a pilot program is astonishing to me, to be honest with you," she said. "The idea that 40 percent of the proposed gas tax increase is going to this system, I don't understand it."

She said it would be better to pay the one-time cost for tearing down the elevated structure and use the hundreds of millions of dollars of proposed Skyway spending for other transportation projects like the bus system, sidewalks, bike lanes and road work.