Khan, Jaguars expect Lot J development to begin early 2020

[Papa33]

https://www.firstcoastnews.com/article/sports/mayor-curry-calls-newspaper-column-an-embarrassment-says-city-should-support-jaguars-ownership/77-073ad9b2-d3cb-4f68-9c36-e4992320d00f

[jaxlongtimer]

^ Thanks, Mayor, for bringing more attention to Nate Monroe's columns.  The more people understand Monroe's perspectives and facts not offered up by the Mayor, the better.

The comment below is another argument I have trouble buying into.  Khan paid the Weavers a purchase price well below other NFL team valuations precisely because the Jags play in a small market.  As such, he can't reasonably demand that he needs help to keep the franchise afloat as he doesn't require the same dollar returns that would be appropriate if he invested more in a higher priced team.

As a sophisticated investor, he knew the lay of the land when he bought the team.  He also found some "hidden" gold by playing games in London.  If it hasn't done better financially, it may have more to do with the teams performance under his ownership and that's on him.  Despite all that, reports indicate he has tripled his investment.  So, what is there to complain about?

Curry was asked during the 1010 interview about what role the planned development is in helping the team remain financially viable.

"The team has said since they've been here that this is a small market and they have to be economically viable and we as outsiders can debate what that means," Curry said. "That's not up to us, that's not our business decision. The business decision is with the owner and those that advise the owner. They tell us and I believe them, that this is how we build an economically viable franchise."

[marcuscnelson]

^ all good points. However, it's also worth pointing out, what the hell does he mean about that's not our business decision? When it requires hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars it becomes our business decision, because it's our damned money!

[Steve]

quote author=jaxlongtimer link=topic=35949.msg508035#msg508035 date=1609200712]

The comment below is another argument I have trouble buying into.  Khan paid the Weavers a purchase price well below other NFL team valuations precisely because the Jags play in a small market.  As such, he can't reasonably demand that he needs help to keep the franchise afloat as he doesn't require the same dollar returns that would be appropriate if he invested more in a higher priced team.

Not entirely true. They paid the exact same entry fee the Carolina Panthers paid. Putting the NFL hat on for a second, they certainly expected more from Jacksonville in 25 years. I mean, while the Charlotte market isn't amazing, Charlotte has grown its corporate base much more then we have (and kept more during M&A).  If they had to do it again, I'm sure they would have awarded the franchise to Oakland, St. Louis, or Baltimore.

Now with all of that said, I agree that Monroe's article nailed it.

[thelakelander]

While there's a lot more to consider, this pretty much sums it up on what's taken place in these communities since the era of them being awarded an NFL franchise:

Charlotte MSA:

1990   - 1,024,643
2019 - 2,636,883

Jacksonville MSA:

1990 -    925,213
2019 - 1,559,514

Back in those days, we were essentially the same size. 30 years later, we're not in the same league anymore.

[marcuscnelson]

So what's the over/under on how all the excitement around Trevor Lawrence is going to affect this deal? The time seems ripe for a "rally around the team, costs be damned" spirit. Curry's certainly trying to make that happen.

[Ken_FSU]

^I think Lot J was going to pass either way, Lawrence or no Lawrence.

But if he turns out to be as good of a pro as he was in college and the team suddenly gets good in, I think the talk of "are the Jags worth keeping in Jacksonville" largely disappears and the average citizen is more likely to support the future asks regarding the stadium.

Gaffney and several council members are apparently holding a press conference in front of City Hall re: Lot J tomorrow morning.

Seems premature to announce that the project has the necessary votes to move forward.

Unless something has changed over the holidays, it also seems unnecessary to hold a pep rally to try to sway fencesitters.

Doubt the Jags have made a major concession over the holidays either.

Wild, disconnected for the holidays guess is that it's got something to do with minority business involvement with the project or something having to do with the Eastside. 

[thelakelander]

Gaffney has a meeting with Eastsiders tonight. I suspect the meeting and the announcement may be linked.

[marcuscnelson]

Article about Lawrence and what that could mean for the city and NFL:

https://sports.yahoo.com/trevor-lawrence-landing-in-jacksonville-could-impact-nfl-and-london-to-tune-of-hundreds-of-millions-of-dollars-021942615.html

Here's Nate Monroe's take:

A lot of this column reads like bullshit spin fed to the writer by NFL sources hoping to leverage city officials. But it's worth noting in the three scenarios laid out here — all of which include Lawrence as a successful QB — the Jags leave Jacksonville in two of them.

[Tacachale]

^Dumb, slapdick article that just regurgitates the Jags' and NFL's talking points. Sad!

[Ken_FSU]

^^Agree. Pure, speculative garbage written by someone who doesn't have a firm grasp on the market.

RE: The London game - Wildy unpopular opinion, but I think the London game is a good thing for Jacksonville.

While we're waiting for the market to grow, the fanbase to mature across multiple generations, and the team to win consistently, 8 home games a season stretches the local economy reallllly thin. 

I think we can fill the stadium 8 times a season (with the help of opposing fans, if we're being honest) when the economy is good and the product on the field is competitive and exciting, but it's pretty damn tough during a downturn (as we saw during the recession when our opener only got 38,000 throught the gate) or during consistently bad seasons.

It's only going to get tougher next season when we move to 9 home games a year every other season with the expansion to a 17-game regular season. I don't even know if I'd be mad having 7 home games a year in Jacksonvile for the next few years, 1 home game a year in London during our seasons with 8 home games, and 2 home games a year in London only during the years that we add that extra bonus home game.

I'm fine with letting London have a non-marquee game a year to prop up the Jags' bottom line at someone else's expense and allowing that discretionary spending to find its way to other local businesses instead.

I'd be even more fine with the arrangement if the city actually made something of all the delegates it sends over to London each year to trump up business for Jacksonville. We're how many years into this arrangement, and how many London businesses have opened up shop in the 904?

And I'd be even more fine with it if the arrangement was with Orlando instead (people forget that Wayne Weaver explored this possibility at one point), allowing us to build up a strong regional fanbase by fielding one game a year (or the preseason) over there to drum up some new fans who would in turn travel to Jacksonville for home games and return that money to our local economy.

And I'd be even MORE fine with it if we worked out an arrangement with Orlando that shipped us a couple of Magic games to Jax in return

All that said, whether Trevor Lawrence is our savior or a bust, the team's long term future in Jacksonville is ultimately going to come down to one question:

Are we willing to invest $X00 million into the stadium or not?

If we're willing to pay half for whatever the Jags' determine will be necessary to modernize TIAA Bank Field to the new NFL standard, I think the franchise stays put through 2050.

If we're not, they find a city willing to build them a new stadium.

With Lot J appearing to be a foregone conclusion, I think it really is that simple.

[Charles Hunter]

Nate Monroe responds to Lenny  https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2020/12/29/jaguars-biggest-fan/4072701001/

Meanwhile, can some of the smart people here help me with some math?
The reports say that the London game represents 11% of the team's revenue.  Assuming, for simplicity, this is only talking about the 'gate' at home games (which, I concede, is probably a hugely over simplistic).  Ignoring the pre-season games, there are 8 home games. So, each home game should be 12.5% of the revenue, which means the London game is underperforming?

[Ken_FSU]

Meanwhile, can some of the smart people here help me with some math?
The reports say that the London game represents 11% of the team's revenue.  Assuming, for simplicity, this is only talking about the 'gate' at home games (which, I concede, is probably a hugely over simplistic).  Ignoring the pre-season games, there are 8 home games. So, each home game should be 12.5% of the revenue, which means the London game is underperforming?

^The London game has historically yielded about 1.5 to 2 times the revenue for the Jags as a game in Jacksonville.

Some seasons, that one game has contributed up to 17% of local revenue for the Jags.

The reason it's not a clean percentage of total home games as described above is because other things gets lumped in to our local revenue, in addition to just the home games (most significantly, Bold Events concerts at Daily's Place and the stadium).

[marcuscnelson]

^^Agree. Pure, speculative garbage written by someone who doesn't have a firm grasp on the market.

RE: The London game - Wildy unpopular opinion, but I think the London game is a good thing for Jacksonville.

The London game is only a good thing for Jacksonville if it actually keeps the other games in Jacksonville. If it ultimately serves as a pretense to ship more games over and contribute to a move somewhere else later, then it isn't a good thing.

While we're waiting for the market to grow, the fanbase to mature across multiple generations, and the team to win consistently, 8 home games a season stretches the local economy reallllly thin.

Only the first is in any way Jacksonville's responsibility as a city. The team just hasn't been around as long as many others, and we don't control the on-field product.

This is just my crackpot theory here, but I think intercity rail, whether through Brightline or state-funded Amtrak could be a lucrative way of expanding the market. Imagine in 2030 being able to hop on a train in Daytona, get off in LaVilla, Uber to the stadium for the game, drinks, food, all that, and still end the night in your own bed. Making it easy to experience the team without having to get in your car and drive 3 hours roundtrip, and someone has to be DD, and traffic, ugh. The prospect of a "Gameday Express" is strangely alluring, at least to me.

It's only going to get tougher next season when we move to 9 home games a year every other season with the expansion to a 17-game regular season. I don't even know if I'd be mad having 7 home games a year in Jacksonvile for the next few years, 1 home game a year in London during our seasons with 8 home games, and 2 home games a year in London only during the years that we add that extra bonus home game.

I'm fine with letting London have a non-marquee game a year to prop up the Jags' bottom line at someone else's expense and allowing that discretionary spending to find its way to other local businesses instead.

I'd be even more fine with the arrangement if the city actually made something of all the delegates it sends over to London each year to trump up business for Jacksonville. We're how many years into this arrangement, and how many London businesses have opened up shop in the 904?

Again, I think it's a matter of what the actual motive is. Whether it's just making the team a little extra cash to keep things working, or it's a pretense for eventually exiting the market.

It's worth noting that we're now going to be seeing a post-Brexit UK, and I have no idea how desperate they might be to build an economy independent of the EU. If the game can somehow serve as an avenue to directing some of that desperation our way, then that's a big win for us. I imagine the biggest test of that would be if a direct UK-JAX flight ever comes to fruition. Plus, we don't know how well or poorly our city's leadership is managing that effort.

And I'd be even more fine with it if the arrangement was with Orlando instead (people forget that Wayne Weaver explored this possibility at one point), allowing us to build up a strong regional fanbase by fielding one game a year (or the preseason) over there to drum up some new fans who would in turn travel to Jacksonville for home games and return that money to our local economy.

And I'd be even MORE fine with it if we worked out an arrangement with Orlando that shipped us a couple of Magic games to Jax in return

I didn't know that. And yeah, assuming such a deal would actually lend itself to building a regional fanbase (not sure how many people would ignore it and head to Tampa for Brady instead), it'd be pretty cool. Not sure how inter-sport deals would work though, since IDK what leverage the city has on the Magic to do a Jax game.

All that said, whether Trevor Lawrence is our savior or a bust, the team's long term future in Jacksonville is ultimately going to come down to one question:

Are we willing to invest $X00 million into the stadium or not?

If we're willing to pay half for whatever the Jags' determine will be necessary to modernize TIAA Bank Field to the new NFL standard, I think the franchise stays put through 2050.

If we're not, they find a city willing to build them a new stadium.

With Lot J appearing to be a foregone conclusion, I think it really is that simple.

It's going to be a matter of what everyone's stomachs are for that kind of spending as the dust clears from COVID and the new Mayor is settling in (assuming Project Lifetime really does take until late 2023).

Given no JEA sale, and the likely lack of a BJP-style sales tax, that's all debt, which means $X00 million on top of that cost in interest.

Now, since we'd be talking about the actual stadium and not ancillary development, I would expect there to be a substantially better attitude about it. If DIA (hopefully them and not just the next Mayor's office) negotiates a reasonable-ish deal vs putting us over a barrel again, I think it'd pass easily enough, even moreso if Trevor Lawrence is winning lots of games for us.

There'd still be a ton of frustration from marginalized communities about how we're all too happy to open everyone's wallets for a billionaire and his millionaires while their sidewalks and sewers don't exist, but I imagine we'd do what we always do to them, either empty promises or outright vitriol for threatening the team.

[thelakelander]

The biggest problem we have with the Jags is that we have no one trustworthy negotiating on the behalf of the public's interest. The mayor's office has proven itself time and time again that their interests don't align with taxpayers. Hopefully this dynamic changes with the next administration.