Khan, Jaguars expect Lot J development to begin early 2020

[marcuscnelson]

I mean, they stuck around before the Jags came, when there was plenty of opportunity to move to Atlanta or a permanent stadium swap between the schools.

Although they no longer have the Landing to celebrate at...

...which Curry may have demoed in favor of Live. Dammit.

[thelakelander]

One thing I haven't seen discussed here are other reprocussions of the Jaguars leaving.  For one, I don't think FL-GA would stick around without a modern stadium and the city isn't going to (and shouldn't) maintain the stadium to that level without the Jags. 

Have there been any studies showing the economic impact of the NFL leaving St. Louis, San Diego and Oakland in recent years?

[Ken_FSU]

As  to  the  Hotel,  taking  into  consideration  the  donation  of  a  development  ready  pad,  the  Vertical Infrastructure,  and  the  City  contribution  for  Live!  Components  which  would  include  restaurant  and  venue  space,  a  generous  per  key  construction  cost  for  a  luxury  boutique  hotel  is  estimated  to  be  $275,000/key.  While  one  national  survey  prepared  by  HVS  identifies  luxury  hotel  development  costs  approaching $700,000/key, that figure includes substantial value (several hundred thousand) in land and site  costs.  The  study  further  reveals  that  the  increased  cost  for  full-service  vs  limited  service  was  approximately  $140,000/key.  We  have  been  advised  by  the  Developer  that  the  restaurant  and  event  space within the Hotel will not be Live! Elements.  The budget of $118,500,000 for the hotel, even if the full 250 keys are developed, yields a per key cost of $474,000.

So, if the hotel comprises 120 rooms, we're looking at ONE MILLION DOLLARS per key.

Nothing to see here...

[Ken_FSU]

I think it's reasonable to say that Curry is still in office by the next round of negotiations (because he's not recalled for the level of misfeasance and incompetence in this deal), taxpayers are going to get screwed. Now that we know $240 million actually means $390 million, by the time the Four Seasons and stadium reno deals go through, it's almost certain that we'll have spent a billion dollars to keep the Jaguars. When we didn't actually have to.

We'll be back here again with similar requests for Lot J Phase II, Metropolitan Park, a new stadium and whatever else is dreamed up before then. It's imperative that if we're going to play the NFL game we need better negotiators on behalf of the public.

It's worth pointing out that, as things currently stand, there's really no way we're going to be able to fund these future projects (stadium renovations, Met Park, Lot J Phase II) without raising property taxes, or instituing a new sales tax.

Our borrowing capacity is finite, and if Lot J passes, from my understanding, we've only got about $100 million in borrowing capacity left as a city.

Also worth pointing out that when Curry first announced this deal, it wasn't supposed to be fully debt-financed.

Here's his quote (source: https://news.wjct.org/post/q-mayor-curry-lot-j-jea-and-jacksonville-landing):

Phase one, in the beginning of this, I should say, some of this will be paygo [pay as you go]. We are financially stable, the city has cash. And at some point, we'll use debt wisely. But at this point, we are fiscally sound, we can handle this project.

If this is going to be a seven year project, it's a shame we can't find a way to carve some of this out of the general fund each year without having to bond and pay interest on the full $208 city investment.

[Ken_FSU]

One thing I haven't seen discussed here are other reprocussions of the Jaguars leaving.  For one, I don't think FL-GA would stick around without a modern stadium and the city isn't going to (and shouldn't) maintain the stadium to that level without the Jags.

That's the other half that probably doesn't get enough attention.

Florida/Georgia ain't staying here long-term either without infrastructure improvements.

Not when Mercedes Benz stadium and Atlanta are breathing down our necks.

Lot J and stadium improvements WILL secure that century-long Jax tradition, and will also hopefully bring in more college football games as well.

Both Florida and Georgia are fully on board with the Lot J proposal, have assured the city that they're ok with whatever disruptions come during construction as they think it's the right move for the game long-term, and based on the Lot J negotiations, we're likely going to see an extension of the existing contract here in the next few months.

[Ken_FSU]

One thing I haven't seen discussed here are other reprocussions of the Jaguars leaving.  For one, I don't think FL-GA would stick around without a modern stadium and the city isn't going to (and shouldn't) maintain the stadium to that level without the Jags. 

Have there been any studies showing the economic impact of the NFL leaving St. Louis, San Diego and Oakland in recent years?

^San Diego estimated 1,600 jobs lost equating to $67 million in annual labor income, with small businesses most directly tied to the Chargers (bars, restaurants, memorabilia and merch retailers, etc.) taking the brunt of the damage.

I do think Jax is a bit of an apples to oranges comparison however, as Oakland, San Diego, and St. Louis all have Major League Baseball franchises as well, and St. Louis also has an NHL team. I think the economic impact would be more severe in Jacksonville, but more importantly, I think the quality of life impact would be even greated in an only-game-in-town type city like Jacksonville.

Someone might be able to correct me, but I don't know if there's a market in the United States over the last 30 years that's lost it's ONLY major league sports franchise. We're in a relatively small club with cities like San Antonio, Salt Lake City, and Sacramento that only have one big-five sport.

[Ken_FSU]

P.S. Tuesday is shaping up to be pretty nuts.

Tommy Hazouri is refusing to put Lot J on the ballot for discussion at the City Council meeting.

But there's tentatively another meeting scheduled earlier in the day to discuss changes to the development agreement.

Hazouri wants a vote no earlier than January 7th.

The Jags and Curry want the vote on Tuesday.

Will take a super majority to make the vote happen, and a super majority again to pass it.

Ready the popcorn.

[acme54321]

I mean, they stuck around before the Jags came, when there was plenty of opportunity to move to Atlanta or a permanent stadium swap between the schools.

Although they no longer have the Landing to celebrate at...

...which Curry may have demoed in favor of Live. Dammit.

They almost left in the early 90s because of the old stadium and strong armed the city into major renovations.  That was before the days of the modern NFL palace too.

If the Jags leave and the stadium goes stagnant that game will go to Atlanta before long.

[thelakelander]

Someone might be able to correct me, but I don't know if there's a market in the United States over the last 30 years that's lost it's ONLY major league sports franchise. We're in a relatively small club with cities like San Antonio, Salt Lake City, and Sacramento that only have one big-five sport.

The only one that comes to my mind is Hartford. They lost their NHL team back in the late 1990s. If including Canada, Vancouver lost their NBA team to Memphis in 2001.

[Ken_FSU]

^Good call!

On Vancouver, it's hard to put a dollar figure on losing Bryant "Big Country" Reeves.

[marcuscnelson]

As  to  the  Hotel,  taking  into  consideration  the  donation  of  a  development  ready  pad,  the  Vertical Infrastructure,  and  the  City  contribution  for  Live!  Components  which  would  include  restaurant  and  venue  space,  a  generous  per  key  construction  cost  for  a  luxury  boutique  hotel  is  estimated  to  be  $275,000/key.  While  one  national  survey  prepared  by  HVS  identifies  luxury  hotel  development  costs  approaching $700,000/key, that figure includes substantial value (several hundred thousand) in land and site  costs.  The  study  further  reveals  that  the  increased  cost  for  full-service  vs  limited  service  was  approximately  $140,000/key.  We  have  been  advised  by  the  Developer  that  the  restaurant  and  event  space within the Hotel will not be Live! Elements.  The budget of $118,500,000 for the hotel, even if the full 250 keys are developed, yields a per key cost of $474,000.

So, if the hotel comprises 120 rooms, we're looking at ONE MILLION DOLLARS per key.

Nothing to see here...

Shad Khan on Tuesday night:

[Tacachale]

Someone might be able to correct me, but I don't know if there's a market in the United States over the last 30 years that's lost it's ONLY major league sports franchise. We're in a relatively small club with cities like San Antonio, Salt Lake City, and Sacramento that only have one big-five sport.

The only one that comes to my mind is Hartford. They lost their NHL team back in the late 1990s. If including Canada, Vancouver lost their NBA team to Memphis in 2001.

Vancouver's got hockey. Winnipeg and Quebec City also lost their NHL teams just before Hartford did, though Winnipeg has gotten one back. Much longer ago, Louisville and Norfolk had ABA teams. A few others like SLC and Memphis had ABA teams they lost before they got their NBA teams. Before that, you have to go back to when the leagues were much smaller.

[jaxlongtimer]

One thing I haven't seen discussed here are other reprocussions of the Jaguars leaving.  For one, I don't think FL-GA would stick around without a modern stadium and the city isn't going to (and shouldn't) maintain the stadium to that level without the Jags. 

Have there been any studies showing the economic impact of the NFL leaving St. Louis, San Diego and Oakland in recent years?

Over the years, numerous studies have concluded that pro sports teams do not contribute a net economic gain for the cities they are located in.  One article I read equated pro sports teams to "getting a present" rather than seeing them as an investment with an economic ROI.

So it comes down to entertainment and civic pride.  Losing a team is unlikely to have a negative economic impact and is more likely to be economically positive as taxpayer dollars get reinvested in the broader community and patrons of the team spend their money in other ways with local stores, restaurants, entertainment venues, etc. or in some other locally beneficial way.

[landfall]

One thing I haven't seen discussed here are other reprocussions of the Jaguars leaving.  For one, I don't think FL-GA would stick around without a modern stadium and the city isn't going to (and shouldn't) maintain the stadium to that level without the Jags. 

Have there been any studies showing the economic impact of the NFL leaving St. Louis, San Diego and Oakland in recent years?

^San Diego estimated 1,600 jobs lost equating to $67 million in annual labor income, with small businesses most directly tied to the Chargers (bars, restaurants, memorabilia and merch retailers, etc.) taking the brunt of the damage.

I do think Jax is a bit of an apples to oranges comparison however, as Oakland, San Diego, and St. Louis all have Major League Baseball franchises as well, and St. Louis also has an NHL team. I think the economic impact would be more severe in Jacksonville, but more importantly, I think the quality of life impact would be even greated in an only-game-in-town type city like Jacksonville.

Someone might be able to correct me, but I don't know if there's a market in the United States over the last 30 years that's lost it's ONLY major league sports franchise. We're in a relatively small club with cities like San Antonio, Salt Lake City, and Sacramento that only have one big-five sport.

St Louis/NFL lawsuit:

"The lawsuit alleges that while the league has enriched itself and its teams with the move, St. Louis has lost an estimated $1.85m to $3.5m each year in amusement and ticket tax collections, as well as roughly $7.5m in property taxes. In total, the city will have lost more than $100m in net proceeds, the suit alleges."


Aside from losing the team, I think it would be a tall order to regain a team from any of the big five, as its not like the days of the 80s/90s of regular expansion. The only way I could ever see the stadium being used again with regularity if a move occurred is if say UNF launched a football program and used it which has virtually no chance of ever happening. It would very quickly become a white elephant, like the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis funnily enough.

[Ken_FSU]

Aside from losing the team, I think it would be a tall order to regain a team from any of the big five, as its not like the days of the 80s/90s of regular expansion. The only way I could ever see the stadium being used again with regularity if a move occurred is if say UNF launched a football program and used it which has virtually no chance of ever happening. It would very quickly become a white elephant, like the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis funnily enough.

Agree.

There's literally zero chance we'd land a Major League Baseball team in the next 30 years. Our market is way too small to support 81 home games, and it'd be a cold day in hell before MLB puts another team in Florida after seeing how poorly the Rays and Marlins have drawn.

Ditto NBA and NHL. We would need to build a brand new arena or completely overhaul VyStar with expanded seating and all the bells, whistles, and corporate amenities of the modern NBA. Seattle, Pittsburg, Kansas City, Vancouver, and numerous other cities would be in a stronger position to land an NBA team, and the league just isn't expanding.

MLS would be our only hope, and I just don't see that one happening any time soon either. They're already at 30 teams I believe, and landing an MLS team would likely necessitate the construction of a soccer specific stadium. All in, we'd be looking at a $200 million+ spend to even have a prayer of landing MLS.

If we want to remain a city with a Big 5 team, unfortunately, as the old saying guys, it's cheaper and easier to maintain what you've got than it is to find a replacement.