Khan, Jaguars expect Lot J development to begin early 2020

[jaxlongtimer]

Nate Monroe retweeted these pictures posted by James Poindexter and added this commentary to Mr. Poindexter's comment of "How it started. How it's going.":

People forget the city *just* put up half the money for the amphitheater and practice field (of which Khan gets all the upside). That was also supposed to be transformational. Then Khan turned right around, complained about viability and tried to take a second home game away.

Promised:



Delivered:

[jaxlongtimer]

Nate Monroe nailed it with these concluding lines, especially the very last one.  He just needed to add that Khan is sacking not just the Mayor but, more importantly, Jacksonville taxpayers.

As an aside, I bet a huge contingent of Jag's ticket holders live in St. Johns, Nassau and Clay counties and they contribute nothing to this project.  On top of just being an awful deal for taxpayers, we need to realize at this point that half or more of our City support for the Jags likely benefits non-Jax taxpayers.

Give him credit: For all of Khan's on-the-field incompetence, he can still roll City Hall on a sweetheart deal. One of the most prolific political donors in the city, Khan has cultivated an entire generation of elected officials who jump at his beck and call. In particular, Khan has played the star-struck, football-obsessed Curry like a fiddle. He lets the mayor play assistant coach at spring training and invites him to ride on the team's chartered plane to away games.

Curry, with this deal in hand, thinks he scored a touchdown. In reality, Khan sacked him.

[thelakelander]

You should look at the value engineering of the Lot J renderings over the last few years. All those towers are gone and the hotel probably won't happen immediately because there may not be a market for it. So you're getting a Landing replacement and a 220 Riverside for that incentives package. Alone, in isolation this is no more of a game changer than the Landing was 30 years ago. Yet it appears to be a big part of keeping the Jags in town. There will be more requests for hundreds of millions in incentives for future development  that appears to already be viable in Brooklyn. IMO, this conversation should be less about Lot J and more about what do the Jags need to become viable long term in Jax. Jax needs to figure that out and cohesively integrate it into an overall plan for DT.

[Ken_FSU]

Nate Monroe retweeted these pictures posted by James Poindexter and added this commentary to Mr. Poindexter's comment of "How it started. How it's going.":

People forget the city *just* put up half the money for the amphitheater and practice field (of which Khan gets all the upside). That was also supposed to be transformational. Then Khan turned right around, complained about viability and tried to take a second home game away.

Promised:



Delivered:

^Lot J discussion aside, I do think that James Pointdexter tweet about Daily's Place is a little misleading.

Comparing the original renders to what might be the least flattering picture of Daily's Place possible.

The amphitheater's design obviously changed from initial renders to execution.

But sleek exterior aside, do we really think that this odd open-air alternative (with standalone private practice facility that most certainly would have eaten up more of the budget) would have been a better, more functional alternative than the Daily's place we did get with awesome sight lines, a full roof, and shared infrastructure and connectivity with TIAA Bank Field and the new club level?



An amphitheater is something that Jacksonville had needed and had been trying to push through since the Delaney administration.

Funding came from the bed tax, the venue has filled a significant hole in the Jacksonville entertainment landscape, it's been a big success as an additional revenue driver for the Jags (https://www.jacksonville.com/news/20190709/st-augustines-amp-jacksonvilles-dailys-place-rank-among-top-15-amphitheaters-worldwide), and at worst, the city breaks even/shows a small profit from its addition to the sports complex (https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/local/action-news-jax-investigates-if-dailys-place-is-a-hit-or-flop-for-taxpayers/1010370672/).

It's a legitimately cool venue too that is fantastic for live events and that the city should find more creative ways to use (the flex field in particular).

Design definitely changed, but I don't necessarily agree with the argument that the city somehow got fleeced/swindled by Daily's Place.

Here are some alternate pictures that are a little more flattering:

[blizz01]

Agree.  I mean, even the sky was more ominous...

[Steve]

^Lot J discussion aside, I do think that James Pointdexter tweet about Daily's Place is a little misleading.

Comparing the original renders to what might be the least flattering picture of Daily's Place possible.

The amphitheater's design obviously changed from initial renders to execution.

But sleek exterior aside, do we really think that this odd open-air alternative (with standalone private practice facility that most certainly would have eaten up more of the budget) would have been a better, more functional alternative than the Daily's place we did get with awesome sight lines, a full roof, and shared infrastructure and connectivity with TIAA Bank Field and the new club level?



An amphitheater is something that Jacksonville had needed and had been trying to push through since the Delaney administration.

Funding came from the bed tax, the venue has filled a significant hole in the Jacksonville entertainment landscape, it's been a big success as an additional revenue driver for the Jags (https://www.jacksonville.com/news/20190709/st-augustines-amp-jacksonvilles-dailys-place-rank-among-top-15-amphitheaters-worldwide), and at worst, the city breaks even/shows a small profit from its addition to the sports complex (https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/local/action-news-jax-investigates-if-dailys-place-is-a-hit-or-flop-for-taxpayers/1010370672/).

It's a legitimately cool venue too that is fantastic for live events and that the city should find more creative ways to use (the flex field in particular).

Design definitely changed, but I don't necessarily agree with the argument that the city somehow got fleeced/swindled by Daily's Place.

I agree SOMEWHAT. Color me as someone that's underwhelmed by Daily's Place. The sound quality is hit and miss (likely because the place is 98% concrete), and it's an oven in the summer because there's no breeze (the breeze over there comes from the river and we stuck a football field with walls around it). Obviously it's not going to win any awards architecturally, and I'm okay with THAT part of it. Additionally, I do like that it shares some things with the stadium - that part is nice. So, I'd say it's a mixed bag.

Also, what I'd love to know is how much did the Flex Field part cost, and how much did the amphitheater cost? While the flex field might be able to be used for things other than the Jags such as a Lot J press conference when social distancing is needed, we would have never built that venue if not for the Jags - an amphitheater on the other hand we may have.

[Ken_FSU]

Also, what I'd love to know is how much did the Flex Field part cost, and how much did the amphitheater cost? While the flex field might be able to be used for things other than the Jags such as a Lot J press conference when social distancing is needed, we would have never built that venue if not for the Jags - an amphitheater on the other hand we may have.

This is why I think it oversimplifies things a bit when the city says that we got an amphitheater for 50 cents on the dollar.

Not that simple.

The $90 million project broke out as:
- $45 million for the amphitheater
- $20 million for the flex field
- $26 million for the club seat upgrades

If you view the club seats and flex field as facilities that the city wouldn't have otherwise built, then another way to look at it is that the city paid the full cost of Daily's Place and the Jags paid for the flex field and club upgrades.

Either way, again, it came out of the bed tax, which by current ordinance has to be used at the sports complex, and filled an existing need, so I have a hard time being too upset or feeling too fleeced by this one.

[marcuscnelson]

Y'all forget the middle set of renderings in 2016 or so, between the first pictures and the final products. Personally, they're the ones that sold me.









Also perhaps worth nothing is this rendering from 2013:

[jaxlongtimer]

Also, what I'd love to know is how much did the Flex Field part cost, and how much did the amphitheater cost? While the flex field might be able to be used for things other than the Jags such as a Lot J press conference when social distancing is needed, we would have never built that venue if not for the Jags - an amphitheater on the other hand we may have.

This is why I think it oversimplifies things a bit when the city says that we got an amphitheater for 50 cents on the dollar.

Not that simple.

The $90 million project broke out as:
- $45 million for the amphitheater
- $20 million for the flex field
- $26 million for the club seat upgrades

If you view the club seats and flex field as facilities that the city wouldn't have otherwise built, then another way to look at it is that the city paid the full cost of Daily's Place and the Jags paid for the flex field and club upgrades.

Either way, again, it came out of the bed tax, which by current ordinance has to be used at the sports complex, and filled an existing need, so I have a hard time being too upset or feeling too fleeced by this one.

Per the Visit Jacksonville web site [https://www.visitjacksonville.com/about/]:

Visit Jacksonville is funded by bed tax dollars. The 6 percent bed tax is placed on all hotel rooms in Duval County. Of the 6 percent tax collected, 2 percent is allocated to the Sports Complex Upkeep Fund, 2 percent to the bond TIAA Bank Field and 2 percent to the Tourist Development Council of Duval County. Part of the TDC's portion is used to fund Visit Jacksonville.

So 2/3 of our bed tax pretty much goes to benefit the Jaguars.  People need to recognize that some of that money could be paying for more tourist development and, most importantly, a convention center or subsidizing other attractions like a music museum, aquarium or ship.  Bottom line, tax dollars of any kind so heavily directed to a specific purpose come at the expense of a variety of other purposes.  So, I am not necessarily fine with the Jag's soaking up most of our bed taxes for decades to come.

I would also challenge the belief the City gets a return on investment on these deals.  Starting with the Jags, numerous national studies have concluded that pro sports teams lift civic pride but lower civic finances.  Given the deal the Jags have with the City, its no question that applies here.

As to the design of the structure, a 3D view of Daily's on Google shows mostly a boxy structure with little to no embellishments or design features to make it attractive from the ground level.  It looks like it was built on the cheap.

[Ken_FSU]

Per the Visit Jacksonville web site [https://www.visitjacksonville.com/about/]:

Visit Jacksonville is funded by bed tax dollars. The 6 percent bed tax is placed on all hotel rooms in Duval County. Of the 6 percent tax collected, 2 percent is allocated to the Sports Complex Upkeep Fund, 2 percent to the bond TIAA Bank Field and 2 percent to the Tourist Development Council of Duval County. Part of the TDC's portion is used to fund Visit Jacksonville.

So 2/3 of our bed tax pretty much goes to benefit the Jaguars.  People need to recognize that some of that money could be paying for more tourist development and, most importantly, a convention center or subsidizing other attractions like a music museum, aquarium or ship.  Bottom line, tax dollars of any kind so heavily directed to a specific purpose come at the expense of a variety of other purposes.  So, I am not necessarily fine with the Jag's soaking up most of our bed taxes for decades to come.

There's actually not as much wiggle room in that 2/3 of the bed tax as you think.

1/3 of our bed taxes go strictly to debt service on the infrastructure bonds the city issued in 1993 to fund an 80% reconstruction of the old Gator Bowl. Jacksonville Municipal Stadium (e.g. TIAA) is a publicly owned facility that the city agreed to build in order to lure an NFL franchise to Jacksonville. I'd argue that the Jags don't directly benefit from this 2%, as they're not realizing a dime of these bed taxes. It's strictly interest payments on a debt that the city knowingly took on long before Shad Khan came along.

The other 1/3 noted above is purely for upkeep of not just TIAA Bank Field, but also for VyStar Memorial Arena, the Baseball Grounds, and now Daily's Place. These facilities are expensive to maintain and require repairs and upgrades on an annual basis. If this 2% was reallocated elsewhere, there's a really good chance that we'd have to dip into the general fund to cover these expenses, particularly as our sports facilities are upgraded and modernized. Same as above, The Jags benefit from these bed taxes, but so do the Icemen, Jumbo Shrimp, Giants, Gators, Bulldogs, and the thousands of artists and performers who have hosted shows and events at the sports complex.

For now, the 2/3 allocation is kind of the bed we've made (see what I did there?), and I'd argue that it's less about giving a handout to the Jags from our bed taxes, and more about having nice facilities as a city and actually keeping up with their maintenance (the sports complex might be the only place that the city is actually good at doing this, thanks to the bed tax ordinance).

[thelakelander]

Any thoughts on years of being sold this...



and ending up with this for nearly the same amount of public incentives?



Looks like it went from a Live! surrounded by multiple modern high-rise towers into a Live! surrounded by 220 Riverside and a shorter, upscale version of Brooklyn's Residence Inn. Don't get fooled by the towers at the bottom of the bottom image. That's showing a future phase (with a separate public incentives request) on top of this deal's surface parking lot.

Pointing this out, I always said that original rendering package wasn't feasible for this market. The second one is more of the Jax market's speed.

[jaxlongtimer]

1/3 of our bed taxes go strictly to debt service on the infrastructure bonds the city issued in 1993 to fund an 80% reconstruction of the old Gator Bowl. Jacksonville Municipal Stadium (e.g. TIAA) is a publicly owned facility that the city agreed to build in order to lure an NFL franchise to Jacksonville. I'd argue that the Jags don't directly benefit from this 2%, as they're not realizing a dime of these bed taxes. It's strictly interest payments on a debt that the city knowingly took on long before Shad Khan came along.

The City may own the stadium in name but the Jags are, operationally, the owners of the stadium (with a sweetheart deal that gives them most of the revenues and very little of the expenses) that we taxpayers paid for and give to them essentially rent and almost maintenance free so explain how the Jag's don't directly benefit from that 2% share of taxes.

I agree, the sports complex is more than just the stadium but given its relative size and complexity, I would expect the stadium (and now its connected adjunct, Daily's Place) to also eat up the lions share of the maintenance 2%.  Again, the Jags are pretty much the sole beneficiaries of the stadium and, now, Daily's.

My point is, if ROI was used as the criteria for taxpayer "investments," the Jags would have some pretty healthy competition from alternatives but the City isn't interested in that approach.

[thelakelander]

No public leader wants the Jags to leave town on their watch. That fear will always remain a factor until they're locked in for the long term.

[Ken_FSU]

Any thoughts on years of being sold this...and ending up with this for nearly the same amount of public incentives?

Looks like it went from a Live! surrounded by multiple modern high-rise towers into a Live! surrounded by 220 Riverside and a shorter, upscale version of Brooklyn's Residence Inn.

Pointing this out, I always said that original rendering package wasn't feasible for this market. The second one is more of the Jax market's speed.

You mention 220 Riverside and Brooklyn's Residence Inn in jest, but here's what I still can't wrap my head around:

The term sheet lists the total price tag on the two residential buildings, totaling 400 units, and the 150-200 room hotel, as $229 million. Keep in mind, this is for the buildings only, as all hardscaping, utilities, infrastructure, etc. is lumped separately as a city obligation.

220 Riverside was built almost a decade ago, so it's hard to compare construction costs, but let's look at something like the Doro project next door. It's 247 units with a a 284 spot garage, with a estimated construction cost of $48 million.



Here's Vista Brooklyn, which also appears similar in overall design. It's 308 units with a 450 spot garage, with an estimated construction cost of $55 million.



Using an average cost-per-unit of these two recent, nearby developments with ample retail and structured parking as a baseline, we'd expect 400 similar residential units at Lot J to cost ~$75 million to construct total.

Subtract that from the $229 noted in the term sheet for residential and hotel cost, and that leaves an absolutely insane $154 million left over for the 150-200 room hotel pictured here on the top right:

For context, at Texas Live! in Arlington, the massive 14-story story hotel pictured below, with a swim-up bar, 35,000 square feet of convention space, a full fitness center, an outdoor infinity pool, an event lawn and a private rooftop terrace cost $150 million.



Something just seems wonky with the new renders and the price tag overall.

This, combined with the term sheet stating that hotel construction might lag several years behind residential and Live Arena! construction makes me wonder if the space labeled as "Hotel/Retail" in Cordish's renders is actually the 40,000 square feet of office space.



The structure in that top right section seems to be closer in scale to 40,000 SF of office space than an up to 200-room hotel. 



My guess is that either these renders are either half-baked and the structures will be more vertical than pictured, or (and more likely) the hotel will end up over the retention pond at a future date and necessitate a separate parking garage that the city will be on the hook for another $15 million for. Maybe that's what that phantom tower in the background is.

Even then, I'm just baffled as to how 400 mid-rise residential units and 200 hotel rooms can cost $229 million.

Compare this to another project like Phase II of Ballpark Village in St. Louis (https://stlballparkvillage.com/ballpark-village-phase-2), which included a 29-story glass residential tower, a new headquarters for PWC, a Live by Loews hotel with 220 rooms and meeting space, a gym, and a metric ton of retail and streetscape improvements, which had a $260 million price tag, and I just don't see how the $229 million quote matches what it's in that render.

In terms of the new Lot J renders and project scope being so much less impressive (but more market appropriate) than the new renders/scope, what's really interesting is that the city's contributions for both plans are similar, but the reduction in scale is pretty much exclusively isolated to the portions of the project that the Jags/Cordish are funding (hotel, residential, office). Infrastructure and Live! Arena taxpayer contributions are identical in both term sheets, and parking and REV grant terms are actually more favorable toward the Jags in the new term sheet.

[jaxlongtimer]

Nate Monroe taking on the powers-that-be.  Khan, Harden & Curry entertained numerous City Council members on his yacht to grease the skids for this project:  https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2020/10/09/shad-khan-his-yacht-and-city-council/5936491002/

A possible strategy for Khan is to use Lot J/Metro Park as a way to raise the ante on the Jags lease renewal negotiations.  By hooking the City for over $200 million, when the Jag's lease comes up in 2030, he can proffer that not only would the City lose the team if it doesn't capitulate to his demands, but the Lot J/Metro Park developments will be a lot less successful (if they are at all) and valuable if he pulls the team.  So, we taxpayers would be facing an empty stadium and no return on hundreds of millions it taxpayer dollars.  Talk about being backed into a corner.

Photo credit: Bruce Lipsky/ Florida Times Union: