Brightline ready to expand rail system to Tampa

[thelakelander]

The behind-the-scenes story will be an interesting one. It appears Brightline is divorcing Branson but he's refusing to go.

[jaxlongtimer]

Looks to me like the deal with Virgin was mostly a brand licensing deal.  No doubt, Virgin doesn't want to give up the revenue from it and Brightline probably thought the brand was worth much less or nothing after Virgin Atlantic Air filed bankruptcy and Virgin Trains in the UK ended service after 22 years.

Also, its been reported that Virgin never delivered the funds for the small investment it was supposed to make in Brightline.  Brightline revenues dropping due to COVID suspensions may have further forced the issue.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/business/2020/08/10/brightline-ends-relationship-with-virgin-trains/

https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/5f1b2a1997e0bc03ab71bab9/960x0.jpg?fit=scale

Virgin's name will be dropped in both Florida and California:

https://thepointsguy.com/news/richard-branson-virgin-trains-usa-brightline-florida-california/

Nice picture in Forbes:

[Pottsburg]

COVID is just an excuse for the suspension of service.  Until they updated to the PTC standards the government mandates the train will not run. I have heard from several people this won't happen anytime soon. Year or years

[marcuscnelson]

COVID is just an excuse for the suspension of service.  Until they updated to the PTC standards the government mandates the train will not run. I have heard from several people this won't happen anytime soon. Year or years

Why would a rail service that started construction in 2014 have not updated to standards that were signed into law in 2008?

[bl8jaxnative]

The behind-the-scenes story will be an interesting one. It appears Brightline is divorcing Branson but he's refusing to go.

That's the piece that got me wondering what is really going on.   Did some other Brighline owners decide they are going to use Virgin's other distractions as a way to give them a boot?   Are they in such a weak position that they're worried if they don't kick Virign out, Brandon & co will gobble their passenger railroad up on the cheap?

IMHO this is a lot of smoke...... surely there are some fires.  And not just any ol' fires, but the sort that get started from people fighting each other.

[Pottsburg]

COVID is just an excuse for the suspension of service.  Until they updated to the PTC standards the government mandates the train will not run. I have heard from several people this won't happen anytime soon. Year or years

Why would a rail service that started construction in 2014 have not updated to standards that were signed into law in 2008?

Because they let a sales person talk them into buying a technology that he said would be efficient.  Brightline made a lot of bad decisions in the first phase that has cost them millions.

[bl8jaxnative]

If Brightline can't run trains cuz of covid19 or PTC, it's costing them hundreds of millions.   You can't sink billions into something and not have those sort of costs involved if you're not running.

I'd be curious to know more about the PTC situation.  That won't be cheap to address, not in terms of calendar time nor money.   Have they been able to roll that cost into that of building the Orlando line ( legit? )?  Or do they need to get hold of another $30-100MM to sort it out?


Question - Is this the end of Brightline?  It was a dodgy proposition in the best of times.  The tourist industry's been gutted.   With ginormous fixed costs a 20% drop in volume may not be enough to service the debts, let alone cover operating costs.

[marcuscnelson]

Found an interesting article about them in Trains Magazine.

https://www.gobrightline.com/sites/default/files/2020-08/Trains%20Magazine%202020.pdf

[fieldafm]

Question - Is this the end of Brightline?  It was a dodgy proposition in the best of times.  The tourist industry's been gutted.   With ginormous fixed costs a 20% drop in volume may not be enough to service the debts, let alone cover operating costs.

You can't sink billions into something and not have those sort of costs involved if you're not running.

I think you have a fundamental misunderstanding of Brightline.  Construction hasn't stopped and there is no shortage of funding sources. The train side, drives the real estate side.  Neither of those sides were reliant on being cash flow positive within a few years.

[Pottsburg]

Question - Is this the end of Brightline?  It was a dodgy proposition in the best of times.  The tourist industry's been gutted.   With ginormous fixed costs a 20% drop in volume may not be enough to service the debts, let alone cover operating costs.

You can't sink billions into something and not have those sort of costs involved if you're not running.

I think you have a fundamental misunderstanding of Brightline.  Construction hasn't stopped and there is no shortage of funding sources. The train side, drives the real estate side.  Neither of those sides were reliant on being cash flow positive within a few years.

   stole my thunder here, you have to remember Brightline is not just trains.  They now own two towers of apartment rental space in downtown Miami (over the station), and more apartments in downtown (city place) WPB.  Not running the train right now is actually saving them money.

[thelakelander]

They're probably kissing the feet of COVID-19 right now. It gives them a chance complete the system without burning operation money in the short term.

[ProjectMaximus]

Found an interesting article about them in Trains Magazine.

https://www.gobrightline.com/sites/default/files/2020-08/Trains%20Magazine%202020.pdf

Oops...somebody needs to update that article, especially since the magazine has a September date. The last paragraph of the article refers to the name and branding transitioning to Virgin Trains...

Question - Is this the end of Brightline?  It was a dodgy proposition in the best of times.  The tourist industry's been gutted.   With ginormous fixed costs a 20% drop in volume may not be enough to service the debts, let alone cover operating costs.

You can't sink billions into something and not have those sort of costs involved if you're not running.

I think you have a fundamental misunderstanding of Brightline.  Construction hasn't stopped and there is no shortage of funding sources. The train side, drives the real estate side.  Neither of those sides were reliant on being cash flow positive within a few years.

   stole my thunder here, you have to remember Brightline is not just trains.  They now own two towers of apartment rental space in downtown Miami (over the station), and more apartments in downtown (city place) WPB.  Not running the train right now is actually saving them money.

And they sold the office buildings at Miami Central last year. I originally thought the sale was premature, but with COVID they may be very happy they got out of there.

[MusicMan]

Spoke at length to my bro in law in Boca over the weekend. He is now consulting PR for a real estate company. He says the real play, the big money, and the big bet, is on the Orlando to Miami route, not the commuter rail. That's part of it, but the hope is tourist's will flood the trains from Orlando to Miami and back.  Millions of them every year.  Domestic and International.  So we aren't going to know if it's truly successful for a while. As noted the construction of the Miami-Orlando line is going full tilt.

[Pottsburg]

Spoke at length to my bro in law in Boca over the weekend. He is now consulting PR for a real estate company. He says the real play, the big money, and the big bet, is on the Orlando to Miami route, not the commuter rail. That's part of it, but the hope is tourist's will flood the trains from Orlando to Miami and back.  Millions of them every year.  Domestic and International.  So we aren't going to know if it's truly successful for a while. As noted the construction of the Miami-Orlando line is going full tilt.

  This is exactly what a few of us have been saying the entire time. Brightline will not come back until phase 2 is complete. They will save so much money doing this. When they open the full route look for the trains to get longer with possibly a bar car separating first and second class.

[Pottsburg]

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article245262630.html

Wynwood business leaders are backing construction of a train station to serve commuters in the trendy enclave — part of Miami-Dade's plan to expand local rail in its northeast corridor.

The Wynwood Business Improvement District said Wednesday it has agreed in principle to help build a station at Northeast 27th Street between North Miami Avenue and Northeast 2nd Avenue. Estimated cost: $2 million. The station would also serve Midtown and Edgewater residents.

In a statement, Wynwood BID Chairman Albert Garcia said commuter rail is essential to alleviating road congestion and improving walkability in the fast-growing neighborhoods.

Existing property owners at the proposed site also said they were eager to support the station project in conjunction with private rail company Brightline, formerly known as Virgin Trains.

"It's clear that a Wynwood/Midtown/Edgewater station would provide the greatest benefit to the most people," said Bill Rammos, who owns part of the proposed 27th Street station frontage along the FEC/Brightline railway corridor. "My family is committed to facilitating accessible and affordable transit options to and from our community."