Jax and Coronavirus

[Adam White]

Population density doesn't either. Clustering would seem to have more of a correlation. No matter the urban or suburban density, packing people in a Publix, movie theater, restaurant, cruise ship, airplane, etc. would all expose one to more of a chance of catching something, moreso than if they lived in a tri-plex, rowhouse or single family home on a 80' wide lot.

But that's the point - you tend to have greater opportunity for 'clustering' in dense areas. And I don't just mean clustering in the way you probably mean it - I mean coming into contact with other people.

But my point wasn't that dense areas are higher risk - my point is that you can't (or shouldn't) use numbers of cases as a metric to show that density isn't a factor - because there are many factors at play and there could be any number of reasons why some regions have more cases.

Once this is over, the epidemiologists, statisticians, etc can look at the data and draw conclusions.

[Snaketoz]

Perhaps I don't get it.  I'm just trying to be logical.  Whenever we have a bad virus, whenever there is a pandemic, the first things the "experts" tell us is to practice social distancing.  We are told to quarantine in place, not gather in groups of 10 or more, and to stay 6 feet away from others.  It's much easier to do that if you live in some situations over others.  Doesn't that make sense?  Also, these viruses seem to always get started in the more densely populated areas. 

[thelakelander]

I do get your point. I just believe It's more complicated than that. It's pretty easy to stay six feet from someone, as long as you don't have to cluster. But in reality, you're no safer attending church in Miami as you would be in Albany, GA. No matter the overall density of your community, you'd still have a significant challenge staying six feet from someone who could have been exposed.

[tufsu1]

Yep - there's a new hot spot in South Dakota - not exactly a place known for density

[Charles Hunter]

Yep - there's a new hot spot in South Dakota - not exactly a place known for density

Except, perhaps, in the governor's office.

[Snaketoz]

The Albany cases have been attributed to 2 funerals attended by out of town friends/relatives, the meat packers in SD are pretty dense-3500 people working shoulder to shoulder in a plant.  I'm not saying density CAUSES pandemics.  I'm saying without density, person to person transmission is more difficult.  Had social distancing and travel restrictions been enacted before the funerals in Albany and in the plant in SD, those areas would not have the rates they have.

[thelakelander]

I believe the Albany and SD meat packers cases actually prove my point about clustering and the impact of exposure, having nothing to do with a city's population density. That clustering (which I now think you may be calling this density as well) is bound to happen anywhere. Being in a suburb or small community and thinking you're in a safe environment than being in a larger city is only a false sense of security. There's no hiding from this, unless you're going off the grid completely. However, we aren't our great grandparents generation. The majority of people wouldn't survive going completely off the grid, even if they tried.

[Snaketoz]

I think I understand what you're saying.  I agree with what you're saying-to a point.  You can catch the virus in Cut Bank, MT as easily as you can in NOLA.  BUT, if you can trace the source of that virus, it will more than likely than not lead you back to a densely populated area.  The current virus is linked to Wuhan, China, a city of close to 12 million.  Had it started in Cut Bank, most likely it would have stayed there.

[Adam White]

I think I understand what you're saying.  I agree with what you're saying-to a point.  You can catch the virus in Cut Bank, MT as easily as you can in NOLA.  BUT, if you can trace the source of that virus, it will more than likely than not lead you back to a densely populated area.  The current virus is linked to Wuhan, China, a city of close to 12 million.  Had it started in Cut Bank, most likely it would have stayed there.

I think - though I could be wrong, of course - that part of the reason why NYC is the most hard-hit city in the USA is because of how connected it is. Lots of travelers in and out, etc. Same thing with London.

[thelakelander]

I think - though I could be wrong, of course - that part of the reason why NYC is the most hard-hit city in the USA is because of how connected it is. Lots of travelers in and out, etc. Same thing with London.

This makes sense to me. Atlanta isn't dense, but the airport is connected and definitely a place where people cluster. Heck, the majority of people in that hub don't even leave the terminal to visit the city itself. That CNN story about those French cruise ship passengers being allowed to integrate into the population in the airport terminal, then catch flights all over the country, is a good example of how a connected location can quickly increase the spread.

Had it started in Cut Bank, most likely it would have stayed there.

Not necessarily, unless the source is practicing self isolation and social distancing......which more than likely it would not be. Cut Bank would be a hot spot and all it would take is one person from Cut Bank to come in contact with someone else that may happen to travel or work in a different location and bam, you have a chain started. Population density damed.

[Steve]

Viruses like #covid19 can only spread in meaningfully threatening volumes if you have large numbers of people interacting over and over and over and over again in small, confined spaces.   

Note that it's not the density of residential homes, it's the density of these attack vectors for the virus.  The covid19 stats y'll are talking about do not speak to where the infection occured, merely to the infected's domicile.  Be mindful of what is actually being measured.

And, not to be an ass, but to claim that such a thing does not _CORRELATE_ or is not _ASSOCIATED WITH_ dense urban environments, is an act of idiocy rarely displayed by people other than our beloved orange man and his frail foe, basement Joe.

My, we're salty today!

If this was directed at me, let me remind you of what I said:

"I'm not sure those are as correlated as it seems."

My point is exactly what's being said - there's more to it than dense cities get hit hard and less dense cities don't. It's a factor, but an incomplete correlation. Clearly there is SOMETHING There, but then why didn't all very dense cities see this level of outbreak? I think some of the reasons are above. Clearly Mardi Gras and New Orleans' reputation as a touristy city (disproportionate to it's size) hurt them. Clearly being an international gateway doesn't help (New York, Miami, Chicago). But it's not a 100% comparison so after this is over, we SHOULD (who knows if we will) study cities that fared very well (German cities come to mind as does Seoul and Tokyo) and understand what the difference was. Obviously much of it was Federal action, but what specifically?

[Snaketoz]

I think everyone has good points and when you think about what has been said, nobody to all wrong or all right.  It's great we have a place to talk about and discuss such things.  I'm bored and my wife is uninterested. Thanks!

[thelakelander]

Yeah, at this point, we can only offer up opinions and our perspectives for having them. In reality, there's a lot of unknown and we could only be in the beginning stages of this. Unfortunately, we could be looking at various types of social distancing measures for the next few years.

[Snaketoz]

Yeah, I think a lot that we took for granted just a few weeks ago will be only memories soon.  The innocent act of shaking hands will most likely fade away.  Entering a crowded elevator will cause concern.  This is really changing life as we know it.

[Josh]

Americans are pretty stubborn in their ways.

Perhaps it'll finally be fashionable to chastise coworkers that show up to the office clearly sick when it's known they have available sick leave....

At most, maybe people will be better about washing their hands after using restrooms.