The Sad State of Friendship Fountain

[KenFSU]

Everyone here stresses too much on what the city needs to do. The city is gonna be great its just gonna take time. There is serious money in the city and there are serious movers and shakers here. Jacksonville is on its way just be patient.

My only counter is that the time to be patient was five or six years ago. I tend to think that we're at a point where we need to put our foot on the gas in the next 12-18 months, at least in terms of doing our part as a city to make the right projects happen. Not necessarily throwing subsidies at anything that moves, but by making swift decisions and not becoming a regulatory roadblock. The best predictive indicators are starting to point toward an impending recession up in the distance.

[Kerry]

My take away from the article was, it doesn't matter what plan or great ideas they come up with - they don't have the power to do anything about it.

[jagsonville]

Everyone here stresses too much on what the city needs to do. The city is gonna be great its just gonna take time. There is serious money in the city and there are serious movers and shakers here. Jacksonville is on its way just be patient.

My only counter is that the time to be patient was five or six years ago. I tend to think that we're at a point where we need to put our foot on the gas in the next 12-18 months, at least in terms of doing our part as a city to make the right projects happen. Not necessarily throwing subsidies at anything that moves, but by making swift decisions and not becoming a regulatory roadblock. The best predictive indicators are starting to point toward an impending recession up in the distance.

The Laura St Trio is going to be done in 18 months + a decent garage, Fscj housing will be open by the end of the summer, hotel indigo is going through the process, out of town investors just bought 120 e Forsyth to put in a high end speakeasy, and khan is cooking up plans for Lot J. Plus the Southbank has lots of potential projects in various initial stages. Sure Downtown jax is late to the party but we are heading in the right direction. I guess a lot of people think there will be some sort of real estate bubble ala 2008 and we have missed the boat but I don't see that happening.

[jaxjaguar]

Having the trio, garage, fscj housing, etc done next year will be great. It's awesome that those are locked in... but... My biggest fear is that downtown is about to get stuck in the same predicament it did during the last recession. Development started waaaay too late. Orlando started their redevelopment right as the economy went bullish. It aggressively lured developers to build housing which fueled retail, bar/restaurant and entertainment growth. Since 2014 there have been 13 major resdential developments downtown. About a 50/50 mix of high and midrise / purely residential and mixed use. The economy while strong right now is in very turbulent times. With tariffs as Trump's new favorite toy to toss around building supplies are getting WAAAAY more expensive by the day. I fear that some of the projects in their early development phases may never see the light of day in Jacksonville. Just like the last time the Economy took a nosedive.

[jagsonville]

Having the trio, garage, fscj housing, etc done next year will be great. It's awesome that those are locked in... but... My biggest fear is that downtown is about to get stuck in the same predicament it did during the last recession. Development started waaaay too late. Orlando started their redevelopment right as the economy went bullish. It aggressively lured developers to build housing which fueled retail, bar/restaurant and entertainment growth. Since 2014 there have been 13 major resdential developments downtown. About a 50/50 mix of high and midrise / purely residential and mixed use. The economy while strong right now is in very turbulent times. With tariffs as Trump's new favorite toy to toss around building supplies are getting WAAAAY more expensive by the day. I fear that some of the projects in their early development phases may never see the light of day in Jacksonville. Just like the last time the Economy took a nosedive.

I disagree, we aren't too late we are just late to the party. Jacksonville is not a first tier city for big out of town developers and our local developers are too conservative to invest in downtown, thus the slow pace. Downtown has lots of available space/empty building stock and a healthy city budget/leadership eager for public/private partnerships. Out of town Developers are searching for deals and with our robust economy we will start seeing more action as other cities become too expensive. I wouldn't buy into the media's fear mongering predicting some sort of economic collapse. The housing bubble in 2008 which halted so much downtown momentum isn't going to repeat itself and if our economy is truly in danger of collapse a lack of cranes in downtown jax will be the least of all of our worries:

[Kerry]

Okay - so Jax isn't a first-tier city for developers, our developers are too conservative, insert other excuse here...how is it that over the last 20 years every other metro, town, city, and hamlet in America has seen significant reurbanization - and by significant I mean development measured in billions of dollars.  Meanwhile back at the ranch, this is a thread about not being able to keep our signature downtown iconic fountain in working condition for 3 consecutive years.

[vicupstate]

I guess a lot of people think there will be some sort of real estate bubble ala 2008 and we have missed the boat but I don't see that happening.

Recessions haven't been outlawed. We are already overdue for a recession and market correction. Many cities that were building like crazy the last few years are already seeing fewer projects coming through.

[jagsonville]

I guess a lot of people think there will be some sort of real estate bubble ala 2008 and we have missed the boat but I don't see that happening.

Recessions haven't been outlawed. We are already overdue for a recession and market correction. Many cities that were building like crazy the last few years are already seeing fewer projects coming through.

Offcourse recessions haven't been outlawed, but I don't see any factors suggesting one is coming or that we are "overdue" for one. If anything signs point to the opposite, signs such as the fed reserve raising their interest rate which is done when their is confidence in the economy. Many cities are still building, we get reminded by many posters all the time and we even have an entire thread devoted to it. I can't comment on pace but I've driven through Orlando and Tampa recently and they all still have several active cranes downtown.

[Steve]

Projects can be a little tougher here, which is a byproduct of a crazy low cost of living here. Right now you don't see much in the way of true high-rise construction because they can't then charge the rents (or sell the units) to recoup the cost of construction of a high-rise. Over time that might change, but that's going to be a challenge in the immediate future.

Personally, if we saw more mid-rise/reuse projects, I'm fine with it.

But....I don't think we're TOO late to the party. Just a little more than fashionably late.

[KenFSU]

I don't see any factors suggesting one is coming or that we are "overdue" for one. If anything signs point to the opposite.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/business/what-is-yield-curve-recession-prediction.html

[KenFSU]

P.S. I don't see it mentioned in the Times-Union article, but I've heard that the mayor's new budget also has $2.5 million allocated to Friendship Fountain and the surrounding park, in addition to what's been previously budgeted ($1 million+, I believe).

[Steve]

P.S. I don't see it mentioned in the Times-Union article, but I've heard that the mayor's new budget also has $2.5 million allocated to Friendship Fountain and the surrounding park, in addition to what's been previously budgeted ($1 million+, I believe).

If true that's good news. May not be mentioned in the T-U article because the T-U focused on Capital and I would think this would be maintenance.

Though....I'd think cleaning up the cemeteries would be maintenance too so maybe I'm wrong.

[KenFSU]

P.S. I don't see it mentioned in the Times-Union article, but I've heard that the mayor's new budget also has $2.5 million allocated to Friendship Fountain and the surrounding park, in addition to what's been previously budgeted ($1 million+, I believe).

If true that's good news. May not be mentioned in the T-U article because the T-U focused on Capital and I would think this would be maintenance.

Though....I'd think cleaning up the cemeteries would be maintenance too so maybe I'm wrong.

Definitely capital improvement.

Was told an additional $1.5 million for the fountain, plus another $1 million for the park.

[vicupstate]

the fed reserve raising their interest rate which is done when their is confidence in the economy.

Just as they did in 2006, 2007.....

Having lots of cranes is not the future. The pipeline of new projects for submission to gov't boards is what the world will look like in the next 12-24 months.

We are in the longest lasting expansion in history, or very close to it. 

[jagsonville]

the fed reserve raising their interest rate which is done when their is confidence in the economy.

Just as they did in 2006, 2007.....

Having lots of cranes is not the future. The pipeline of new projects for submission to gov't boards is what the world will look like in the next 12-24 months.

We are in the longest lasting expansion in history, or very close to it.

They only increased in 2006 and started gradually decreasing afterwards. They did it in an unsuccessful attempt to cool the housing market which was about bubble where as now they are doing it to stave off inflation and the need for cheap government money isn't necessary for borrowers anymore due to the strong economy.