Hurricane Matthew

[Houseboat Mike]

So based on what I am seeing, it looks like this thing keeps jogging west. To me it really reminds me of Floyd in 99. Anyone care to predict the possible outcome this storm will have? I really think it will totally depend on how close to the coast it gets. I think we will get some downed lines and tree uprooting- but not much more.

I work at a bank though, so it will be a nice 4 day weekend. 

[funwithteeth]

Better nail down your houseboat, Mike.

[Know Growth]

Today was "All Hands On Deck!","General Quarters!" & "Batten Down the Hatches!" mode along the Ortega River waterfront.

Vessels moved away from more exposed docks....amazing to always manage to find the space to assemble them,as if a giant Tic-Tac-Toe game.
Some vessels making pointed entry to the Ortega River to weather the storm. Florida Yacht Club river side docks to be cleared.Tomorrow boat owners will rush to complete vessel prep,additional lines.

Dora in 1964 was the 'worst' most recollect........a weak Cat 2,albeit perfectly aligned for maximum damage.

It is always fascinating to witness the river water level rise. To tour docks,marinas and creeks really makes an impression.
In addition to rainfall amount,prevailing wind direction is key.
The storm a couple of weeks ago generated westerly winds,Ortega River water levels hardly rose.
Matthew will likely generate easterly winds for a fair amount of time,literally blowing water in to the river system.

"I wonder about Lake Okeechobee .....water level is at 15' plus,a situation not considered ideal for the dike. A slow moving storm grinding just offshore and generating rainfall north of the lake in amounts that can not be discharged might make headlines.

[Josh]

11PM update from the NHC has the storm moving even further west.

[Adam White]

What's the deal?

I woke up this morning and my Facebook feed was full of posts wishing everyone in Jacksonville well, asking them to be careful, etc. I checked the NOAA website and it looks like the current projection is for the eye to pass just east of Jacksonville around 8 pm on Friday.

Are they getting evacuation plans together, etc? Is there a real belief that this might hit Jacksonville? My in-laws live in Neptune Beach, so I am more than a bit concerned (might try to call them later).

[Steve]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5day

Current forecast is that it's possible Jacksonville is affected Friday night/Saturday morning. While the consensus track is for the eye to stay off course, Jacksonville is well within the cone of uncertainty.

[BridgeTroll]

I like this one better... seems we may see Matthew twice...

[Adam White]

I like this one better... seems we may see Matthew twice...

[BridgeTroll]

It will likely remain a Cat 3 or 4 through Friday...

[BridgeTroll]

Awesome graphic!

[fsquid]

So will most people shelter in place or big out of here?

[BridgeTroll]

This site is pretty cool... just pick the model and timeframe you want to see and play the simulation...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

A single frame of one model...example...

[spuwho]

Schools have already been cancelled in South Carolina already. Why?

All the school buses have been sent to the coast to start the evacuations.

Power went out on the southside this morning, we thought it was a little early for outages, then we found out a guy had a seizure, drove across 6 lanes of Kernan and hit the JEA power pole.

[blfair]

So will most people shelter in place or big out of here?

I'm planning to stay unless predictions get way worse. Then we'll bug out at the last minute and ride it out on I-10 along with everyone else who waited too long to make a decision.

[thelakelander]

Schools have already been cancelled in South Carolina already. Why?

All the school buses have been sent to the coast to start the evacuations.

At one point, it looked like their coast would take a direct hit. I guess they decided to play it safe rather than wait to the last minute and be sorry.