Five-Year Predictions

[Todd_Parker]

Partial Yes

JTA Regional Transportation Center - Work continues to repair initial construction deficiencies.

Berkman II - Use of NEA grant to turn structure into "Monument of Broken Dreams". Charge $5 per head for tours of location to educate visitors on the dangers of economic bubbles.

Completed and closed

Cowford Chophouse - Needed a "Yes" on at least 5 of the items listed below to ensure longevity. ActionNewsJax's "Restaurant Report" proves to be final death knell.

No movement.....but with "studies" being currently conducted on:

The District
Shipyards Remediation
Barnett Bank Building
Laura Street Trio
Metro Park Redevelopment (Existing)
Replacement Metro Park
Hemming Park Restoration/redesign
San Marco Condos/Publix
Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate
Skyway Extension
Downtown Aquarium
USS Adams Mooring/Museum
Landing Redesign
AAF Connection

[heights unknown]

@ Stephen...thanks for elucidating and elaborating on the "yes's." Although I still say that most will be wishful thinking; it all depends on our government and its leaders to not stand on the sidelines and be an integral solution to the problem(s) instead of being "the problem" which in most instances prevented Jacksonville and the City Core from being a success and prosperity hit.

[Know Growth]

Reviewing the List basically reminds me of whether or not I want to stick around here in retirement and Wait.

[remc86007]

I'm with the optimists on this thread. I think there is momentum building in the urban core that is coming from nearly every direction.

Riverside, Avondale and Brooklyn are all filling up and property values and rents are climbing quickly following several years of incredibly impressive development. The addition of the new Brooklyn developments has in a short amount of time transformed the viability of downtown development both commercial and residential. 220 and Brooklyn are having no trouble filling their units and the Fresh Market makes living downtown more practical than before.

San Marco has seen and will continue to see huge investments from Baptist which will increase the desirability for its staff of living near the urban core and will drive the need for more hotels downtown. The restaurants and stores in San Marco appear to be doing better than ever and the vacancy rate for the whole area continues to decline.

The entertainment district or whatever the stadium area is called is finally seeing some private sector growth (Intuition and Manifest) and I believe in the next five years it will become viable for restaurants to start building over there to create a nice little bubble of night life. The amphitheater will help with this too.

Springfield, while still struggling to get Main St development off the ground, has seen continuing investment in renovating the older homes and building new ones on the vacant lots. I think in 5 years Springfield homeowners will see their home values start growing quickly.

All of this will put pressure for commercial and residential development downtown. I also think the city government will become more progressive and less prone to screwing things up as Jacksonville continues to grow out of being the old conservative southern small town it used to be.

[RattlerGator]

The small business and indie merchant scene just hit critical mass, and most of it in places/times that the regulatory groups cant really bother with them (at night and on the various ends of downtown.)  Critical mass catalyzes things pretty quickly. 

The success of the community's long overdue stand being taken for historic preservation at the Bostwick Building is about to pay off and will take away the debilitating decades long preservation killing meme 'Its too far gone, boys, tear it down!".

Once you look around at available buildings for expansion, there really aren't that many left standing. The Trio will get another boost.

I suspect that Matt Carlucci is going to be on City Council this next time around, replacing Lori Boyer.  His signature achievement as President was creating the Historic Preservation Trust fund, specifically to save the buildings from being demolished 13 years ago. I suspect this is unfinished business for him.

Chophouse is almost done. I drove by there yesterday and its kind of amazing how far its come along.

And we will be printing a few stories later on this week that will explain why the skyway will probably start expanding again within the next five years.

Hmmmm . . . seems to be a rather verbose way of saying what everyone knows: Shad Khan happened, thank you very much. But many thanks to KenFSU for this post. It will be a *very* interesting read in five years and I suspect this has something to do with some of the positivity shown in a post or two. Wouldn't want to be too embarrassingly negative.

[RattlerGator]

Call me an optimist, but I'm with Stephen. The momentum is starting to pick up. Our local economy is strong, with more jobs coming. Barring a complete economic meltdown, I think the market is going to do its job in the next five years, to the point that it might actually be more difficult for the city to screw things up than it will be to let them happen. And a few of these projects have the potential to cause pretty significant domino effects if they fall into place.

JTA Regional Transportation Center -- Project complete. Federal, state and JTA funding is already allocated for the project, with final design less than three months out. I bet it breaks ground by spring.

The District -- Phase 1 complete, minus the hotel, with parts of Phase 2 under construction.

Metro Park Redevelopment (Existing) -- Yes for Phase 1, via a partial land swap for Shipyards property. We'll see a hotel, entertainment/retail, and the USS Adams occupying Metro Park by the end of the decade.

Shipyards Remediation -- Yes. Khan moves fast. I anticipate talk of Metro Park redevelopment ramping up fast next year around the time of the Jags State of the Franchise presentation. As a city, we're sitting on $17 million to remediate the site, and have made no efforts to do so, citing a lack of development plan for the land. My guess is that there's already a handshake agreement in place between the city and Khan for the Metro Park land swap. I can't see the Feds being happy with such a swap unless remediation is a real thing, which should fast track its start. Khan develops Metro Park, a portion of the Shipyards is designated as public parkspace, and appropriate remediation is under way no later than January 2018.

Replacement Metro Park -- Yes. On the Shipyards property. Though likely bare-bones at first, to check a box on the land swap agreement.

Barnett Bank Building -- Yes. This might just be wishful thinking, but Jim Woodcock spoke rather positively about the building being in the right hands with Shad Khan and his finding the right use for the building. I don't think you make a statement like that if your intent is to flip it quickly to the highest bidder. Khan has made $1 billion dollars in pure profit by owning our NFL team. And, as of today, the team is still the shits. I could see him taking this on as a goodwill project. It's a stunning building that he loved from the first time he saw it. Super wishful thinking would be that the project was a massive success, and he caught a bit of the Dan Gilbert bug. 

Laura Street Trio -- Yes. With the pension issue kicked down the road, Curry has promised to beef up capital improvement spending as early as next year. And I think Curry, the City Council, and our citizenry as a whole recognize that this is a make or break project for the downtown core. Though I couldn't see Khan asking for city incentives to redevelop the Barnett, I could see him putting pressure on the city to make the Trio happen as a condition of restoring the Barnett. Even with the contentious relationship with the Adkins group, he's a smart businessman, and these two projects can only help each other.

Cowford Chophouse -- Yes. Though I do fear this project may be two or three years too early, I think they'll be ok.

Hemming Park Restoration/redesign -- No. I could see a cheap redesign, though maybe not in a good way. I worry about this one. To me, it's one of the most important projects on the list, and I think a public/private partnership is by far the best way to go. That said, I question what competent, sane entity is going to want to run Hemming after the debacle with FHP.

San Marco Condos/Publix -- Yes, with loads of positive externalities on San Marco.

Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate -- No. Demolished.

Skyway Extension -- Yes, into Brooklyn via the operations center. With one additional extension underway.

Downtown Aquarium -- No. But I do think it happens within ten years.

USS Adams Mooring/Museum -- Yes. As a featured part of the Jags' Metro Park development.

Landing Redesign -- No, but the remaining retail will shrink away, the food hall/market concept will gain steam and the existing Landing will be a more vibrant place.

AAF Connection --No.

Berkman II -- Demolished.

This is likely the most accurate take, so far. I certainly hope for this, and more.

[jcjohnpaint]

JTA Regional Transportation Center- Near complete
The District- Started
Shipyards Remediation- No
Barnett Bank Building- Started
Laura Street Trio- New Proposal
Metro Park Redevelopment (Existing)- New Proposal
Replacement Metro Park- No
Cowford Chophouse- Done
Hemming Park Restoration/redesign- On going fighting
San Marco Condos/Publix- Done or Near Complete
Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate- Demolished w/ new convention center proposal- Curry's legacy
Skyway Extension- Brooklyn and Stadium (another Shad Kahn public private investment)
Downtown Aquarium- No
USS Adams Mooring/Museum- No
Landing Redesign- Yes, turned into an indoor/ outdoor market
AAF Connection- No
Berkman II- Demolished

[RattlerGator]

Yes.

In five years, YES YES YES !!!

[Yumbomb]

Let's play a fun game. Pick which of the following oft-discussed/long-delayed/upcoming projects you expect to be completed by this time 2021. I've set a calendar reminder to revive this thread in five years. Winner gets a special prize.

JTA Regional Transportation Center
70%

The District
Phase one in Lease-up once "East San Marco" helps lessen the food desert element from a pedestrian POV.
Sequential horizontal design changes delaying full build out, likely steady with no stall longterm

Shipyards Remediation
Partial

Barnett Bank Building
Occupied

Laura Street Trio
Active construction

Metro Park Redevelopment (Existing)
Complete (IF Bay, Gator Bowl, Festival Park Blvd meet at-grade)

Replacement Metro Park
LITIGATON

Cowford Chophouse
Open,  rebranded

Hemming Park Restoration/redesign
Amenities restored
 
San Marco Condos/Publix
Complete

Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate
Residential conversion likely underway

Skyway Extension
Riverside, Springfield, E. Bay funding and construction phased. Brooklyn platform complete.

Downtown Aquarium
Perhaps best at River City Brewing site if Southbank Riverwalk plans to reach Nemours, MD Anderson, San Marco bike&ped connection to Fuller Warren are designed

USS Adams Mooring/Museum
If so, not in the most obvious location

Landing Redesign
Hogan St. grassy knoll redesigned considering Vestcor  LaVilla lofts foot traffic

AAF Connection
On the horizon

Berkman II
Still standing ...

One more_
Ahh, yes, Skatepark built

[JaxAvondale]

Approaching the halfway point with these predictions.

[JaxAvondale]

Ken, you left one important event off this list.

A winning season for the Jaguars. Or maybe a playoff game. Will that happen withing the next 5 years?

It happened!

[marcuscnelson]

Approaching the halfway point with these predictions.

It'd definitely be nice to see a halfway point recap on these predictions.

In a few cases (the Adams), I'm already laughing sadly.

[thelakelander]

I assume, we're talking about completion within five years?

1. JTA Regional Transportation Center -- Yes for phase 1. Office building under construction and No, for the rail component.
2. The District -- Yes for a portion of phase 1. We'll never see the full master plan developed.
3. Shipyards Remediation -- No
4. Barnett Bank Building -- Yes
5. Laura Street Trio -- No
6. Metro Park Redevelopment (Existing) -- Yes for phase 1. Khan will get it
7. Replacement Metro Park -- Yes for Amphitheater; No for shipyards becoming a replacement park
8. Cowford Chophouse -- Yes
9. Hemming Park Restoration/redesign -- No
10. San Marco Condos/Publix -- Yes
11. Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate -- No
12. Skyway Extension -- No, to extension of elevated guideway mileage. But a station in Brooklyn (adjacent to the existing O&M center) is possible.
13. Downtown Aquarium -- Lol....No
14. USS Adams Mooring/Museum -- No
15. Landing Redesign -- No, but it will get pressure washed and more tenants
16. AAF Connection --Completed No. Under construction....Yes
17. Berkman II -- No

1. correct
2. N/A - maybe but not feeling good about my prediction
3. N/A - I feel this prediction will be correct
4. correct
5. N/A - but I hope my prediction is wrong
6. N/A - I feel strong that this prediction will be wrong
7. N/A - I feel strong that this prediction will be wrong
8. correct
9. N/A - I feel strong that this prediction will end up correct
10. N/A - Appears prediction will be correct (come on Publix!)
11. correct - unfortunately
12. correct and wrong (a station at Brooklyn)
13. correct
14. correct
15. N/A - but will likely be wrong
16. wrong
17. N/A - I feel this one will end up correct

[downtownbrown]

#17. Cranes will be in the air in 2019.  Might be completed by 2021.

[Steve]

I assume, we're talking about completion within five years?

1. JTA Regional Transportation Center -- Yes for phase 1. Office building under construction and No, for the rail component.
2. The District -- Yes for a portion of phase 1. We'll never see the full master plan developed.
3. Shipyards Remediation -- No
4. Barnett Bank Building -- Yes
5. Laura Street Trio -- No
6. Metro Park Redevelopment (Existing) -- Yes for phase 1. Khan will get it
7. Replacement Metro Park -- Yes for Amphitheater; No for shipyards becoming a replacement park
8. Cowford Chophouse -- Yes
9. Hemming Park Restoration/redesign -- No
10. San Marco Condos/Publix -- Yes
11. Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate -- No
12. Skyway Extension -- No, to extension of elevated guideway mileage. But a station in Brooklyn (adjacent to the existing O&M center) is possible.
13. Downtown Aquarium -- Lol....No
14. USS Adams Mooring/Museum -- No
15. Landing Redesign -- No, but it will get pressure washed and more tenants
16. AAF Connection --Completed No. Under construction....Yes
17. Berkman II -- No

1. correct
2. N/A - maybe but not feeling good about my prediction
3. N/A - I feel this prediction will be correct
4. correct
5. N/A - but I hope my prediction is wrong
6. N/A - I feel strong that this prediction will be wrong
7. N/A - I feel strong that this prediction will be wrong
8. correct
9. N/A - I feel strong that this prediction will end up correct
10. N/A - Appears prediction will be correct (come on Publix!)
11. correct - unfortunately
12. correct and wrong (a station at Brooklyn)
13. correct
14. correct
15. N/A - but will likely be wrong
16. wrong
17. N/A - I feel this one will end up correct

I'm crossing my fingers that the Trio happens. The Barnett is nearly done, the permit was filed for the garage, so this is really the remaining piece. Assuming Marriott doesn't pull out (and I don't think they will), I feel like it does get done now that we're to this point.