Five-Year Predictions

[KenFSU]

Let's play a fun game. Pick which of the following oft-discussed/long-delayed/upcoming projects you expect to be completed by this time 2021. I've set a calendar reminder to revive this thread in five years. Winner gets a special prize.

JTA Regional Transportation Center
The District
Shipyards Remediation
Barnett Bank Building
Laura Street Trio
Metro Park Redevelopment (Existing)
Replacement Metro Park
Cowford Chophouse
Hemming Park Restoration/redesign
San Marco Condos/Publix
Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate
Skyway Extension
Downtown Aquarium
USS Adams Mooring/Museum
Landing Redesign
AAF Connection
Berkman II

[jaxjaguar]

Let's play a fun game. Pick which of the following oft-discussed/long-delayed/upcoming projects you expect to be completed by this time 2021. I've set a calendar reminder to revive this thread in five years. Winner gets a special prize.

JTA Regional Transportation Center completed
The District completed
Shipyards Remediation completed
Barnett Bank Building demolished
Laura Street Trio demolished
Metro Park Redevelopment (Existing) green space
Replacement Metro Park (new amphitheater)
Cowford Chophouse completed
Hemming Park Restoration/redesign minor changes
San Marco Condos/Publix completed
Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate abandoned
Skyway Extension nope
Downtown Aquarium nope
USS Adams Mooring/Museum nope
Landing Redesign nope
AAF Connection nope
Berkman II demolished

[Bridges]

JTA Regional Transportation CenterPartially
The District Partially, not like currently expected
Shipyards Remediation Absolutely Not
Barnett Bank Building No
Laura Street Trio No
Metro Park Redevelopment (Existing) No
Replacement Metro Park Absolutely Not
Cowford Chophouse Yes
Hemming Park Restoration/redesign No
San Marco Condos/Publix Yes
Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate No
Skyway Extension Absolutely Not
Downtown Aquarium Absolutely Not
USS Adams Mooring/Museum Absolutely Not
Landing Redesign Absolutely Not
AAF Connection No
Berkman II Absolutely Not

[Bill Hoff]

I'm borderline psychic & excellent at fantasy football, so I'm going to be accurate.

JTA Regional Transportation Center --- Yes
The District ---- Partially
Shipyards Remediation ---- Partially
Barnett Bank Building ---- Yes
Laura Street Trio --- No
Metro Park Redevelopment (Existing) ---- No
Replacement Metro Park ---- Partially
Cowford Chophouse --- Yes
Hemming Park Restoration/redesign --- Partially
San Marco Condos/Publix --- Yes
Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate - No
Skyway Extension --- No
Downtown Aquarium --- No
USS Adams Mooring/Museum --- No
Landing Redesign --- No
AAF Connection --- No
Berkman II --- No

[Tacachale]

JTA Regional Transportation Center Finished, or mostly so
The District Hopefully something will be started there
Shipyards Remediation Probably not, but it wouldn't need it if it becomes a park
Barnett Bank Building Maybe
Laura Street Trio No, unfortunately
Metro Park Redevelopment (Existing) Yes, especially if there's a land swap
Replacement Metro Park Possibly
Cowford Chophouse Yes
Hemming Park Restoration/redesign No
San Marco Condos/Publix God, I hope so
Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate No
Skyway Extension No
Downtown Aquarium No
USS Adams Mooring/Museum No
Landing Redesign No
AAF Connection Maybe, depends on JAXIS and what happens with Brightline
Berkman II I can't imagine anything happening here

[JaGoaT]

*more garages

[ProjectMaximus]

This is easy!

No:

Shipyards Remediation
Barnett Bank Building
Laura Street Trio
Metro Park Redevelopment (Existing)
Replacement Metro Park
Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate
Skyway Extension
Downtown Aquarium
USS Adams Mooring/Museum
Landing Redesign
AAF Connection

Partial:
The District
Hemming Park Restoration/redesign (will this ever really be complete?)
Berkman II  get it?

Yes!!!! 
JTA Regional Transportation Center
Cowford Chophouse
San Marco Condos/Publix

[Houseboat Mike]

JTA Regional Transportation Center  Built, people will hate it
The District  Still there, but not sure how you measure their success- more businesses open? About the same as now
Shipyards Remediation  3 more proposals given, more remediation quotes given, no change
Barnett Bank Building  Ownership changes hands, no change in condition today- other than perhaps new fancier plywood over the coverings
Laura Street Trio  same condition as today
Metro Park Redevelopment (Existing)  Given to Shad Kahn
Replacement Metro Park  Given to Shad Kahn
Cowford Chophouse  building finished, restaurant closed
Hemming Park Restoration/redesign  FOH disbanded, revert to pre FOH condition
San Marco Condos/Publix  Completed Publix, not all housing components finished
Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate  re-purposed by local government for local government
Skyway Extension  you are kidding, right? 
Downtown Aquarium  Nope
USS Adams Mooring/Museum  Nada
Landing Redesign  City settles lawsuit, gives Sleiman the land, and nothing else changes
AAF Connection   Nope
Berkman II  building sold, development 85% complete

[heights unknown]

JTA Regional Transportation CenterFinished
The District Phase One complete
Shipyards Remediation Remediation partially completed
Barnett Bank Building Yes
Laura Street Trio Yes
Metro Park Redevelopment (Existing) Yes
Replacement Metro Park No
Cowford Chophouse Yes
Hemming Park Restoration/redesign Phase One
San Marco Condos/Publix Yes
Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate Demolished
Skyway Extension begun
Downtown Aquarium Good Lord. Why not the Ferris Wheel?
USS Adams Mooring/Museum I dont think its going to happen. It needs another element, like a dedication to someone, or another component to make it sexy
Landing Redesign Demolished
AAF Connection No
Berkman II Demolished

Wow; you're very optimistic Stephen. Why? Please give me an answer because I just don't see how your yes's can come through; I do agree with all of your no's.

[MusicMan]

Send this list over to City Council and ask them to complete it. Wouldn't that be more meaningful than an MJ "wishlist?" 

[Captain Zissou]

Send this list over to City Council and ask them to complete it. Wouldn't that be more meaningful than an MJ "wishlist?" 

Why don't you?

[MusicMan]

Ken, you left one important event off this list.

A winning season for the Jaguars. Or maybe a playoff game. Will that happen withing the next 5 years?

[thelakelander]

I assume, we're talking about completion within five years?

JTA Regional Transportation Center -- Yes for phase 1. Office building under construction and No, for the rail component.
The District -- Yes for a portion of phase 1. We'll never see the full master plan developed.
Shipyards Remediation -- No
Barnett Bank Building -- Yes
Laura Street Trio -- No
Metro Park Redevelopment (Existing) -- Yes for phase 1. Khan will get it
Replacement Metro Park -- Yes for Amphitheater; No for shipyards becoming a replacement park
Cowford Chophouse -- Yes
Hemming Park Restoration/redesign -- No
San Marco Condos/Publix -- Yes
Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate -- No
Skyway Extension -- No, to extension of elevated guideway mileage. But a station in Brooklyn (adjacent to the existing O&M center) is possible.
Downtown Aquarium -- Lol....No
USS Adams Mooring/Museum -- No
Landing Redesign -- No, but it will get pressure washed and more tenants
AAF Connection --Completed No. Under construction....Yes
Berkman II -- No

[Westside Guy]

JTA Regional Transportation Center Completed
The District Phase 1 done, phase 2 under construction
Shipyards Remediation City will still be short on money to do it
Barnett Bank Building Being renovated
Laura Street Trio Also being renovated, but will take longer than the Barnett
Metro Park Redevelopment (Existing) City tears down old ampitheather to make room for Khan, but still no development
Replacement Metro Park None
Cowford Chophouse Open, but not doing as well as we all hoped
Hemming Park Restoration/redesign We'll all still be arguing about the Confederate Statue, because it will still be there along with the rest of Hemming Park as we see it today
San Marco Condos/Publix Completed
Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate Old buildings torn down, empty lots, still crossing fingers for a convention center there
Skyway Extension One station into Brooklyn and nothing more
Downtown Aquarium Still fundraising
USS Adams Mooring/Museum Moored at the West end of the shipyards, the people of Jacksoville realize we should have saved the Kennedy
Landing Redesign Existing building is still standing and Sleiman is still complaining about parking
AAF Connection Two trains a day connect Jacksonville to Orlando and Miami (call me an optimist)
Berkman II A developer comes in promising to save it, but at the last minute backs out and the parties involved decide to demolish it

[KenFSU]

Call me an optimist, but I'm with Stephen. The momentum is starting to pick up. Our local economy is strong, with more jobs coming. Barring a complete economic meltdown, I think the market is going to do its job in the next five years, to the point that it might actually be more difficult for the city to screw things up than it will be to let them happen. And a few of these projects have the potential to cause pretty significant domino effects if they fall into place.

JTA Regional Transportation Center -- Project complete. Federal, state and JTA funding is already allocated for the project, with final design less than three months out. I bet it breaks ground by spring.

The District -- Phase 1 complete, minus the hotel, with parts of Phase 2 under construction.

Metro Park Redevelopment (Existing) -- Yes for Phase 1, via a partial land swap for Shipyards property. We'll see a hotel, entertainment/retail, and the USS Adams occupying Metro Park by the end of the decade.

Shipyards Remediation -- Yes. Khan moves fast. I anticipate talk of Metro Park redevelopment ramping up fast next year around the time of the Jags State of the Franchise presentation. As a city, we're sitting on $17 million to remediate the site, and have made no efforts to do so, citing a lack of development plan for the land. My guess is that there's already a handshake agreement in place between the city and Khan for the Metro Park land swap. I can't see the Feds being happy with such a swap unless remediation is a real thing, which should fast track its start. Khan develops Metro Park, a portion of the Shipyards is designated as public parkspace, and appropriate remediation is under way no later than January 2018.

Replacement Metro Park -- Yes. On the Shipyards property. Though likely bare-bones at first, to check a box on the land swap agreement.

Barnett Bank Building -- Yes. This might just be wishful thinking, but Jim Woodcock spoke rather positively about the building being in the right hands with Shad Khan and his finding the right use for the building. I don't think you make a statement like that if your intent is to flip it quickly to the highest bidder. Khan has made $1 billion dollars in pure profit by owning our NFL team. And, as of today, the team is still the shits. I could see him taking this on as a goodwill project. It's a stunning building that he loved from the first time he saw it. Super wishful thinking would be that the project was a massive success, and he caught a bit of the Dan Gilbert bug. 

Laura Street Trio -- Yes. With the pension issue kicked down the road, Curry has promised to beef up capital improvement spending as early as next year. And I think Curry, the City Council, and our citizenry as a whole recognize that this is a make or break project for the downtown core. Though I couldn't see Khan asking for city incentives to redevelop the Barnett, I could see him putting pressure on the city to make the Trio happen as a condition of restoring the Barnett. Even with the contentious relationship with the Adkins group, he's a smart businessman, and these two projects can only help each other.

Cowford Chophouse -- Yes. Though I do fear this project may be two or three years too early, I think they'll be ok.

Hemming Park Restoration/redesign -- No. I could see a cheap redesign, though maybe not in a good way. I worry about this one. To me, it's one of the most important projects on the list, and I think a public/private partnership is by far the best way to go. That said, I question what competent, sane entity is going to want to run Hemming after the debacle with FHP.

San Marco Condos/Publix -- Yes, with loads of positive externalities on San Marco.

Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate -- No. Demolished.

Skyway Extension -- Yes, into Brooklyn via the operations center. With one additional extension underway.

Downtown Aquarium -- No. But I do think it happens within ten years.

USS Adams Mooring/Museum -- Yes. As a featured part of the Jags' Metro Park development.

Landing Redesign -- No, but the remaining retail will shrink away, the food hall/market concept will gain steam and the existing Landing will be a more vibrant place.

AAF Connection --No.

Berkman II -- Demolished.