Miami Goes Streetcar - Jacksonville Can't Imagine It

[thelakelander]

$2.50 gets you across town in most cities using mass transit. Then there's reduced fares for off-peak, seniors and children typically. From my understanding, Uber sort of works like FDOT's managed lanes concept. Fares can rise, depending on demand. It's really hard for me to understand how a private entity could make money charging $2.50 for cross town travel. At this point, I can see the self driving vehicles as another mobility option for those who can afford or prefer them. However, a wholesale replacement for mass transit? Not anytime soon.

[I-10east]

Since MIA isn't "taking the mandatory steps against climate change" (whatever in the hell those steps are...) that means that they are too conservative, amirite??

[thelakelander]

I don't know the details of what Miami is doing but they do have a plan. Investing in transit is a part of it:

http://www.miamidade.gov/greenprint/pdf/climate_action_plan.pdf

[Ocklawaha]

I think the self driving vehicles won't make a dent in the need for mass transit for the reasons Lake has explained. I can actually remember when AC in a car was a pretty big deal, few afforded that luxury. Today you wouldn't think of driving a car in Florida without AC. The difference is the guy that didn't own a car in 1955, is the guy that doesn't own one in 2016, 2020, or 2050. Self driving cars will not solve poverty.

They will assist with traffic control potentially saving the cities $$billions on lights, ramps and upgraded intersections but that technology change is likely to leave a new group of unemployed and a new group of employed, just as the telephone switchboard to digital was a sea change.

The key to this is mass transit is still going to be a need, in fact perhaps more of a need as self driving cars might be the first step toward eventual corporate or even state ownership of all rides. When that comes, a bus with 50 passengers and one driver and a streetcar with 200 passengers and one operator are going to be economics that Jacksonville should have looked at back in 2016.

[ProjectMaximus]

$2.50 gets you across town in most cities using mass transit. Then there's reduced fares for off-peak, seniors and children typically. From my understanding, Uber sort of works like FDOT's managed lanes concept. Fares can rise, depending on demand. It's really hard for me to understand how a private entity could make money charging $2.50 for cross town travel. At this point, I can see the self driving vehicles as another mobility option for those who can afford or prefer them. However, a wholesale replacement for mass transit? Not anytime soon.

I'm not the flag bearer for self-driving cars. Aside from having friends who are passionate about it and hearing from real estate folks in bigger cities who are already taking a look at how this might shape infrastructure, I am not well-informed nor do I care enough to give a rallying cry lol. Re: pricing, there's no reason fares wouldnt be cut in half. And if you move away from on-demand to more planned routes that could dip even further. So for a few bucks more you ride in a personal vehicle from point-to-point...certainly within the realm of possibility that it steals significant ridership from transit. Also, if all choice riders (and some non) were to defect from public transit then where does that leave those systems? It's also plausible govts would choose to subsidize ride share instead of traditional mass transit.

Anyway, this is just theoretical for now. I agree with Lake that this more than likely wouldn't be a wholesale replacement for mass transit, especially not anytime soon. If it's 20 years out from being widely accepted in major cities (my wild guess) then it's 50 years out from entirely replacing mass transit, if ever. Certainly at the moment the ride sharing companies are working towards being a complementary piece (first mile/last mile), so it's entirely possible they grow in that manner and become reliant upon each other. If anything, privatized transit companies are positioning to be the competition right now.

I think the self driving vehicles won't make a dent in the need for mass transit for the reasons Lake has explained. I can actually remember when AC in a car was a pretty big deal, few afforded that luxury. Today you wouldn't think of driving a car in Florida without AC. The difference is the guy that didn't own a car in 1955, is the guy that doesn't own one in 2016, 2020, or 2050. Self driving cars will not solve poverty.

You're totally missing the point Ock. The idea is that these people aren't owning cars, they're just riding in them. The cost of one car would be shared by 50 other people who are also just riding in them. You could almost look at it like you're making cars available to many people who wouldn't normally have that access.

[thelakelander]

I'm not the flag bearer for self-driving cars. Aside from having friends who are passionate about it and hearing from real estate folks in bigger cities who are already taking a look at how this might shape infrastructure, I am not well-informed nor do I care enough to give a rallying cry lol. Re: pricing, there's no reason fares wouldnt be cut in half. And if you move away from on-demand to more planned routes that could dip even further. So for a few bucks more you ride in a personal vehicle from point-to-point...certainly within the realm of possibility that it steals significant ridership from transit. Also, if all choice riders (and some non) were to defect from public transit then where does that leave those systems? It's also plausible govts would choose to subsidize ride share instead of traditional mass transit.

Anyway, this is just theoretical for now. I agree with Lake that this more than likely wouldn't be a wholesale replacement for mass transit, especially not anytime soon. If it's 20 years out from being widely accepted in major cities (my wild guess) then it's 50 years out from entirely replacing mass transit, if ever. Certainly at the moment the ride sharing companies are working towards being a complementary piece (first mile/last mile), so it's entirely possible they grow in that manner and become reliant upon each other. If anything, privatized transit companies are positioning to be the competition right now.

Yeah, I've heard a lot from passionate advocates (maglev and PRT advocates too) over the years as well. I won't lose much sleep but I have started questioning advocates on the basic economics when the subject is brought up. At worst, it helps advocates focus on demographics outside of the groups they are accustomed too. Right now, the typical response I tend to get involves a ton of "ifs" that need to fall in place.

It sort of reminds me of the time we met with the JEDC and the amount of "ifs" in their plan to redevelop the land around the Main Street pocket park. If the city would build the park and if a group built a hotel next door, the land values would rise and Salvation Army would want to sell their property. If Salvation Army sold their land, the two additional blocks could be redeveloped.  A decade later, all we have to show for that plan is a park filled with homeless people, next to Salvation Army and parking lots. Basically, exactly what we predicted years ago.

Anyway, back to the self driving cars. Without 100% enforcement of the general population to convert, IMO at best, they'll become another mobility option as opposed to a complete replacement of another mode like public transit.

[ProjectMaximus]

Anyway, back to the self driving cars. Without 100% enforcement of the general population to convert, IMO at best, they'll become another mobility option as opposed to a complete replacement of another mode like public transit.

Right. Unlike you I actually think the economic and social theory makes sense and would absolutely work on paper, however I have no clue if the technology itself can perform as hoped and change our lifestyle patterns in such a short amount of time. It's that side that we both agree is a big IF.

[FlaBoy]

The self driving cars will change a lot. I think most people see it as especially helping create a flow of traffic on limited access highways devoid of accidents and the human error that causes true congestion. Likewise, parking will not be as much of an issue hypothetically in dense areas since your car can drop you and and go back home or go a longer distance to park. That will hopefully help city centers develop properly without need of additional parking.

Also, it is hard to compare Miami Beach where it costs $20-30 a day to park to Jacksonville and is packed with people on the street 24/7. I think a streetcar there is legitimately needed due to the high density, tourists, and awful traffic. The perks of a street car for Jacksonville would be the TOD we would hope for along with the connection of the historic neighborhoods to alleviate traffic/parking in those particular areas.

[Tacachale]

Even cars didn't change the game overnight, it took decades. Cars became widely available in the first decade of the 1900s, but it wasn't until the 20s and 30s that they became ubiquitous. It took even longer for North America to become mainly "autocentric".

As late as the 1920s, Jacksonville's auto-centric San Jose development failed in large part because it was so far from town (a whopping 5 miles) and had no streetcar connections or shops of its own. Suburban sprawl did come, but it was decades after cars entered the picture. Self-driving cars will be amazing, but the changes they'll bring to our infrastructure will be a long time coming, and there will probably always be a demand and need for mass transit.

[FlaBoy]

^Agreed. Unless the feds force some transition goals, it will be a long process. The first industry it will touch is the taxi/Uber/Lyft industry. One way or another, a street car that connects our historic neighborhoods will be a huge asset to the community for many many decades.

[thelakelander]

The self driving cars will change a lot. I think most people see it as especially helping create a flow of traffic on limited access highways devoid of accidents and the human error that causes true congestion.

This only works if there's 100% self driving vehicles and we don't allow human driven cars, buses, trucks, bicycles, motorcycles on the road. How long that takes is anyone's guess.  However, this theory is challenged in the scenario of self driving vehicles replacing public transit. One can only imagine the congestion in a place like NYC, Boston or Philly where 30 to 60% of commuters are currently using some form of public transit. Whatever capacity you'd free up on already congested streets, would quickly disappear with a far less efficient way of moving large crowds in dense cities. 

^Agreed. Unless the feds force some transition goals, it will be a long process. The first industry it will touch is the taxi/Uber/Lyft industry. One way or another, a street car that connects our historic neighborhoods will be a huge asset to the community for many many decades.

This is about the only way to have wholesale change, sooner rather than later.

[Ocklawaha]

I think the self driving vehicles won't make a dent in the need for mass transit for the reasons Lake has explained. I can actually remember when AC in a car was a pretty big deal, few afforded that luxury. Today you wouldn't think of driving a car in Florida without AC. The difference is the guy that didn't own a car in 1955, is the guy that doesn't own one in 2016, 2020, or 2050. Self driving cars will not solve poverty.

You're totally missing the point Ock. The idea is that these people aren't owning cars, they're just riding in them. The cost of one car would be shared by 50 other people who are also just riding in them. You could almost look at it like you're making cars available to many people who wouldn't normally have that access.

Not missing the point, but I am questioning how many time-share vacation condo's you've bought into? As I said unless the State steps in, there goes your joint ownership. First time little Sue falls off her hover board and the next available car in the share pool is 5 hours out, Sue's mom will be looking for the nearest transit stop.

[Kerry]

These self-driving cars are still going to use 4 wheels on a road right - so someone explain to me again what transit problem self-driving cars are going to solve.