High speed rail project has eye on Jacksonville

[spuwho]

AAF has found money for 40 miles of new construction to reach a station that they don't control and with no possible TOD benefits to them at the Orlando airport. There are no obvious AAF revenue streams available to FECI north of WPB along the FECR route to Cocoa, similar to the route along I4. Although I would think that AAF would build stations near Lakeland and at Disney World (seeing how a lot of their senior team has worked for Disney in the past lol).

The potential great revenue generator here would be FEC having new found freight access to Florida's third largest MSA.

Jacksonville and Tampa are similar in that the most likely location for an AAF station in each city is surrounded by available land owned by government agencies. I did a check and discovered that most of the area in Tampa around the previously proposed HSR station (and likely location for AAF) is owned by the city, county or state. Both potential sites in each city are close to public transit centers. Here in downtown Tampa there is over $2-3B in planned development within 2 miles of the train station site over the next 10 years or so. I would think that FECI would be taking that into consideration as well.

The significant difference is that FEC already owns and operates the track through DT Jax. Getting into Tampa is a lot more complicated and requires more upfront investment.

The potential for AAF coming to Tampa is not as impossible as you might think.  There are good reasons why there is ongoing (but unreported) progress here in Tampa in regards to AAF.

I don't think it is impossible. Just significantly more expensive to the point where massive public investment may be needed to pull it off.

Edit: I might add that maximizing passenger numbers does increase the value and revenue streams from related TOD development. If Tampa can add X numbers of passengers using their system, that benefits their investments in WPB, FTL, and MIA as much as anyplace else. I believe that AAF needs to expand out of Orlando in order to realize their true potential. Their Orlando site is not ideal to maximize revenue from non passenger sources.

IMO, the best thing Tampa can do is find a way to get FEC access into the port.

But the expense of building 40 miles of new 125mph passenger rail track can't be rationalized by a goal of potential new freight revenue. It is my belief that any freight service to Orlando will be of FECR's own accord.

Access to downtown Tampa can be done via I4. It isn't that difficult and if the ROI is met, it can be done without public subsidies. If the TOD potential is great enough, AAF will build to Tampa. There is enough room for that i believe.

As far as the Port of Tampa, there is no easy way to gain access to it without going through CSX as well as established neighborhoods between the port and I4. And CSX would never permit FECR access to their main source of revenue in Tampa. The best FECR could hope for is new intermodal business from Orlando and Tampa. Like I commented on above, reaching Orlando isn't much of a benefit to FECR as its too close to the existing route in Brevard County. Providing intermodal service to Tampa would be a big deal for FECR. They could build a new TOFC/COFC yard nearby I4 east of Tampa for a relatively cheap amount of money.

Welcome back Brian-Tampa.

There is an old saying in railroad circles that says people make the trains move but freight pays the bills.

The Cocoa-Orlando segment will move freight at night and FEC will pay AAF trackage rights to do so. It sounds funny since they are under the same corporate umbrella, but this a key way that AAF as the "owner" of the ROW will recover revenue.

The opposite is also true, AAF has to pay FEC a per mile trackage rights fee to traverse the JAX-MIA ROW, but many suspect it will be trivial compared to what AAF will charge FEC for the Orlando leg.

A few years ago I calculated the amount AAF would have to recover per paying fare to cover the cost of the ROW lease from OOCEA, and if memory serves it came out to like .44 per fare.

Any AAF extensions to Tampa have an unclear freight relationship potential.

[Ocklawaha]

^^Ocklawaha
Actually according to AAF and comments made by FECR people, the freight railway will use the new infrastructure being built by AAF on the route to Cocoa. Both tracks will be used by FECR freight trains and AAF passenger trains.  That's the only way the route can handle 32 more trains each day. 110mph passenger trains will coexist with 60-70mph freight trains. There will be double crossovers spaced every 8-10 miles according to the track plans I have seen from the FRA EIS documents. AAF trains will be given priority and the freight trains will move out the way is my understanding. In Martin and St Lucie Counties there will be two stretches of triple track on each side of the St Lucie River to enable staging of freight trains across the single track drawbridge at Stuart in order to minimize bridge closure times. The third (center) track will be used as a slower speed passing track for freight trains much like the ICRR used in Illinois years ago.

Now regarding the freight traffic to Orlando (and Tampa?) that Lakelander mentioned.... well let me just say that I have heard anything is possible.  There is an agreement with Deseret Ranches and the CFX authority where a freight track can be built alongside the Beach line highway and AAF track.  However, the GOAA was adamant that no freight trains could pass through airport property. But from what I heard, FECR might be able to operate freight trains to Orlando.  Maybe to a point east of the airport?

Yes, my response was primarily aimed at 'NaldoAveKnights' ridiculous posts. I thought a little railroad 101 might help. No doubt that much faster track from Cocoa to Orlando is going to be more restricted to light-weight or passenger equipment. When the freight moves in that direction it will require additional track as the passenger main will be class-7 track and as Amtrak has discovered in the Northeast, freight and class-7 don't mix well for the reasons explained to 'NaldoAveKnights.'

Lake and I have long stood on the theory that the OUC trackage is more important to this then anyone is saying. It gets the FEC RY freight way east of the Orlando airport, south of the passenger terminal and west of the airport rejoining the 'A' line just south of the Sand Lake Road Sunrail stop. You also have easy access to the Orlando Intermodal Facility and Taft Yard which is more/less at the Sunrail Sand Lake station.



I also believe that IF AAF ever gets to Tampa as a passenger carrier, as in Jacksonville, they'd be insane not to use the Union Station. Tampa Union Station is fully restored and has more then ample room for service facilities and terminal trackage. A garage with office towers over the top or packed around the old rail yard and you'd have an amazing operation. Connect it to downtown via streetcar and BRT and toss in commuter rail and the old station would be back to it's glory years. 

[acme54321]

I'm still very interested to see what alignment they decide on for the Cocoa-Orlando leg.  I am assuming they are going to at least try to get their tracks into OUC's ROW from 528 to OIA.

[thelakelander]

Last time I saw, the alignment was it running along 528 and turning south at 436.

[Ocklawaha]

That is essentially what they are building at OIA right now. The bridges from the current terminals to the new station are actually going up and probably 5-10 panels are already in place while the bents for the remains portion are up. It's getting easier to see the layout. I'm going to see if I can pull some strings and get the two of us on the property with cameras.

One thing is a certainty, when that Cocoa-Orlando gap closes, the 'A' line is redundant.

[Ocklawaha]

Another fun thing to watch is the 'Orlando freight bypass,' which has been studied since at least the 1970's. Completing the loop from the Eastside generating plant to the Sanford/Oviedo area where it would tie back into the CSX A-Line. I haven't seen any recent cost estimates, but they will have to be weighed against moving through freight traffic over the S-Line or the new FEC JAX-COCOA-MCO route. I'm pretty sure the A-Line will be toast unless a regional freight carrier, shortline or a primary passenger carrier take over.

[thelakelander]

The A-line seems like the perfect candidate for commuter rail between Jax and Clay County.

[spuwho]

Another fun thing to watch is the 'Orlando freight bypass,' which has been studied since at least the 1970's. Completing the loop from the Eastside generating plant to the Sanford/Oviedo area where it would tie back into the CSX A-Line. I haven't seen any recent cost estimates, but they will have to be weighed against moving through freight traffic over the S-Line or the new FEC JAX-COCOA-MCO route. I'm pretty sure the A-Line will be toast unless a regional freight carrier, shortline or a primary passenger carrier take over.

The fate of the A line for freight was determined when it was sold to FDOT to kick off SunRail.  CSX would not have sold it if they had to much invested in it for online customers.

[Ocklawaha]

Right 'SPUWHO,' Florida is a terminal state for rail, nothing is 'just passing through,' therefore it is prime territory for terminal, shortline and regional carriers to assume operations of the Class 1's. As recently as the 80's/90's the government was still trying to figure a way to create rail competition in Tampa/St. Pete after allowing the SCL merger of the late 60's wipe it out. Regionals taking over much of the Florida trackage would serve this long term agenda.

Lake, Take it a step further, it makes the perfect candidate for a 'Coaster' 'Surflilner' or CalTrain type service

FDOT/MULTI-AGENCY STATE SUPPORTED REGIONAL TRAINS from:
JAX-PALATKA-DELAND-SANFORD-WINTER PARK-ORLANDO-KISSIMMEE-LAKELAND-TAMPA

Add Commuter Rail from:
JACKSONVILLE-SPRINGFIELD-PANAMA-BUSCH-AIRPORT ROAD-YULEE
JACKSONVILLE-ORANGE PARK-GREEN COVE SPRINGS-PALATKA
DELAND-SANFORD-WINTER PARK-ORLANDO-KISSIMMEE-POINCIANA
TAMPA-PLANT CITY-LAKELAND-AUBURNDALE
TAMPA-OLDSMAR-DUNEDIN-CLEARWATER-ST.PETE

Add AAF from:
JAX-ST. AUGUSTINE-DAYTONA BEACH-COCOA-ORLANDO
JAX-ST. AUGUSTINE-DAYTONA BEACH-COCOA-WEST PALM-FT. LAUDERDALE-MIAMI

Add Amtrak from:
JAX-SAVANNAH-COLUMBIA-RALEIGH-WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE-PHILADELPHIA-NEW YORK
JAX-SAVANNAH-CHARLESTON-FAYETTEVILLE-WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE-PHILADELPHIA-NEW YORK
JAX-PALATKA-DELAND-SANFORD-WINTER PARK-ORLANDO-KISSIMMEE-LAKELAND-TAMPA
JAX-PALATKA-DELAND-SANFORD-WINTER PARK-ORLANDO-KISSIMMEE-WINTER HAVEN-SEBRING-WEST PALM-FT. LAUDERDALE-MIAMI
JAX-TALLAHASSEE-PENSACOLA-MOBILE-BILOXI-NEW ORLEANS

Now if FDOT will just figure out that more and more people are living in Waldo (Gainesville)-Ocala-Wildwood (The Villages) - Dade City, the 20 year M/L future is looking pretty darn bright for passenger rail in Florida.

[NaldoAveKnight]

Even slow moving freight trains can be dangerous.  This week:  http://www.clickorlando.com/news/train-derails-in-viera

Not sure how great things will be with 125 mph trains roaring through the countryside.  I'm just a concerned Florida citizen with no ties to the train industry.  There will be train wrecks, there will be people getting killed with All Aboard Florida.  Why spend taxpayer money to create another mode of transportation to get from Miami to Orlando?  American Airlines flies from Miami to Orlando for $55 and the trip takes 1 hour.  There's multiple Greyhound buses from Miami to Orlando that take 4 1/2 hours and cost $30.  There's a daily Amtrak train from Miami to Orlando that costs $44 and the trip takes 5 hours. 

Point is that's three ways to get from Miami to Orlando that don't involve a car or taxpayer funded bonds.

[thelakelander]

Soon, there will be four ways!

[UNFurbanist]

So highways, airports and Amtrak aren't taxpayer funded? Plus people dying in train wrecks is probably the lowest concern on the list. WAAAAYYY more people die in car crashes each year yet here we are in the midst of thriving car culture. This is a tourist funded project so I say hell yes!

[NaldoAveKnight]

Soon, there will be four ways!

If All Aboard Florida prefers to run trains with nobody in them, sure.  Why would anyone pay $143 for the a 3 1/2 hour Miami to Orlando trip when they can fly in an hour for $55? 

If the comfort of watching the countryside wiz by is the primary appeal then surely they would choose the $44 Amtrak ticket for the same trip and enjoy an extra 2 hours in the dining car, swilling cocktails and watching North by Northwest.

[Ocklawaha]

Your posts are so far out in fantasyland that we can't get a radar fix on them!

The logic is so twisted. According to you we should invest more in highways even though gas tax dollars are shrinking, traffic is increasing and the nation is facing a crisis it can't afford to fix with failing roads and bridges. Right here in Jacksonville at least 3 of our major bridges have scored unsafe, while in some states virtually all of them are unsafe. Highways are the most deadly mode of travel on the planet and we cannot build our way out of that problem.

You want us to continue to dump money into subsidizing airlines and airports even though they are the most inefficient users of fossil fuel.

Amtrak? Why continue to prop up a route that takes 9 hours from Jacksonville to Miami and 5 from Orlando when we have a private company with more then 100 years experience is willing to take the risk and cut that travel time to 3 hours.

You've harped on and on about safety, yet the FEC RY has been the winner of the National Railroad Safety awards for decades now. That derailment last week? Nobody hurt.

You apparently have no idea how the trains will operate with your '125mph trains blowing through towns' statement. FACT: no train will operate at 125 mph if there is a single grade crossing on that segment of track. This means the 125 mph track will be between Orlando and Cocoa and there is not a single town and won't be a single crossing on that line. South of Cocoa they will follow the same 79/90 mph speeds that Amtrak uses. Trains have speed limits just like autos do, if a town restricts their speed, and it is approved, then they will slow down.

As for who will pay what to ride, you don't have a clue, the price of tickets are not set yet and when they are they will be market rate., no more, no less.

Now can we stop with the 'STOP BIG CHOO CHOO' NONSENSE?

[tufsu1]

I'd have to go back and look at the plans, but as of now, no high speed rail envelop exists on I-4, the Beach Line or 417 in the Orlando area.

actually there's more "reserved" room than you think...at least there was back in 2004...back then, there was a plan for HOV lanes, which are now of course tolled express lanes....and then room for rail in the median or the side of the highways