Jacksonville for Bernie Sanders

[Tacachale]

Taca, I think I would agree with the comparisons to Howard Dean's early campaign successes. ---Dean ultimately blew it in the first real days of round the clock cable television coverage with his famous scream---it undermined the public opinion about his temperament and fitness to govern back before the days of social media forced everyone to realize that almost everyone has these moments.

But I think the comparison's end there.

These days there is a much better messaging network than there was during those days, and a correspondingly more sophisticated consumer of that information.

Apparently the numbers of the upcoming election require that the Republicans must get 47% of the Latin vote in order to win.  There will be a decreased African American turn out in an election without Obama, heightening the importance of the Latin vote.

So, the republicans can thank Trump for making that goal harder.  The only ticket that would overcome the anti latin rhetoric of the republican field would be Bush/Rubio, and that is the most likely ticket for that reason in my opinion.

But Sanders has a perfect voting score from the NAACP (one of the few senators who has that, btw) and was arrested in the Civil Rights movement for demonstrating.  Also, his social message is going to resonate fairly well with latin voters.

Its going to be an interesting election, and Sanders is going to make it more interesting.

I would put his odds somewhere in the low thirties to become the eventual Democratic Nominee, and I think he finishes later than people are predicting.

I didn't compare Sanders to Dean. I think Dean was a much stronger candidate than Sanders, to be honest. He was the Dem front runner for a good while.

it was in the article from CNN that you posted as a reference.

I was just using that to show what the poll numbers look like. I'll say it again, any Democrat who does this poorly with the black and Latino vote has no chance.

[Tacachale]

If these big crowds start getting more diverse, then I would say he's a serious candidate. 

Are you talking about Sanders or any Republican?

Republicans don't have to worry about getting out of the Democratic primary.

[The_Choose_1]

i wouldn't bother actually.

Stephen you nor I could careless for each other I can live with this.

[Tacachale]

Taca, I think I would agree with the comparisons to Howard Dean's early campaign successes. ---Dean ultimately blew it in the first real days of round the clock cable television coverage with his famous scream---it undermined the public opinion about his temperament and fitness to govern back before the days of social media forced everyone to realize that almost everyone has these moments.

But I think the comparison's end there.

These days there is a much better messaging network than there was during those days, and a correspondingly more sophisticated consumer of that information.

Apparently the numbers of the upcoming election require that the Republicans must get 47% of the Latin vote in order to win.  There will be a decreased African American turn out in an election without Obama, heightening the importance of the Latin vote.

So, the republicans can thank Trump for making that goal harder.  The only ticket that would overcome the anti latin rhetoric of the republican field would be Bush/Rubio, and that is the most likely ticket for that reason in my opinion.

But Sanders has a perfect voting score from the NAACP (one of the few senators who has that, btw) and was arrested in the Civil Rights movement for demonstrating.  Also, his social message is going to resonate fairly well with latin voters.

Its going to be an interesting election, and Sanders is going to make it more interesting.

I would put his odds somewhere in the low thirties to become the eventual Democratic Nominee, and I think he finishes later than people are predicting.

I didn't compare Sanders to Dean. I think Dean was a much stronger candidate than Sanders, to be honest. He was the Dem front runner for a good while.

it was in the article from CNN that you posted as a reference.

I was just using that to show what the poll numbers look like. I'll say it again, any Democrat who does this poorly with the black and Latino vote has no chance.

I always thoroughly read citations.

The article you cited contradicts your underlying assumption then.

Not really, it takes it as granted that to be competitive Sanders much reach minority Democrats. It's not going so hot for him in that regard. Maybe he turns it around, but I tend to doubt it.

[finehoe]

If these big crowds start getting more diverse, then I would say he's a serious candidate. 

Are you talking about Sanders or any Republican?

Republicans don't have to worry about getting out of the Democratic primary.

But they do have to worry about being judged a serious candidate.

[UNFurbanist]

Taca, I think I would agree with the comparisons to Howard Dean's early campaign successes. ---Dean ultimately blew it in the first real days of round the clock cable television coverage with his famous scream---it undermined the public opinion about his temperament and fitness to govern back before the days of social media forced everyone to realize that almost everyone has these moments.

But I think the comparison's end there.

These days there is a much better messaging network than there was during those days, and a correspondingly more sophisticated consumer of that information.

Apparently the numbers of the upcoming election require that the Republicans must get 47% of the Latin vote in order to win.  There will be a decreased African American turn out in an election without Obama, heightening the importance of the Latin vote.

So, the republicans can thank Trump for making that goal harder.  The only ticket that would overcome the anti latin rhetoric of the republican field would be Bush/Rubio, and that is the most likely ticket for that reason in my opinion.

But Sanders has a perfect voting score from the NAACP (one of the few senators who has that, btw) and was arrested in the Civil Rights movement for demonstrating.  Also, his social message is going to resonate fairly well with latin voters.

Its going to be an interesting election, and Sanders is going to make it more interesting.

I would put his odds somewhere in the low thirties to become the eventual Democratic Nominee, and I think he finishes later than people are predicting.

I didn't compare Sanders to Dean. I think Dean was a much stronger candidate than Sanders, to be honest. He was the Dem front runner for a good while.

it was in the article from CNN that you posted as a reference.

I was just using that to show what the poll numbers look like. I'll say it again, any Democrat who does this poorly with the black and Latino vote has no chance.

I always thoroughly read citations.

The article you cited contradicts your underlying assumption then.

Not really, it takes it as granted that to be competitive Sanders much reach minority Democrats. It's not going so hot for him in that regard. Maybe he turns it around, but I tend to doubt it.

Personally I think that the low numbers simply reflect the fact that he is a relative new comer to the national stage where as Hillary has been in the center of it for decades. Essentially he is an unknown in these communities. If his message, voting record, and background get out there to core constituencies then you might see a complete turn around. There is a long way to go until primary voting yet.

[Non-RedNeck Westsider]

We're talking about party primaries. Why is anyone even discussing Electoral College?

Under the premise that he stands little to no chance to make the ticket as anything other than 3rd party and therefore will be irrelevant to the conversation once we've passed the primaries.

The right is going to skewer him with whatever catchy, buzzword of the week is to call someone a borderline communist.

The left is going to distance themselves from him because he might represent a legitimate change in the status quo if elected. 

Those of us that don't swear to the bible of mainstream news opinion channels will be the only ones that will be able to hear his message without some added negative context.

I'm not much on political prognosticating, but I doubt he'll even get a double digit % of the democratic vote.

[finehoe]

Those of us that don't swear to the bible of mainstream news opinion channels will be the only ones that will be able to hear his message without some added negative context.

Looks like even those who read the "newspaper of record" are being shortchanged:

The front page story is about such issues as "work force anxieties," "shrinking middle class," "stagnant wages," and a growing income gap at pre-Depression levels. The candidate who has been raising these issues longer and louder than any others is Bernie Sanders. Yet the New York Times story about these issues does not even mention Bernie Sanders, although it mentions others with less credibility.

http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/why-ny-times-basically-doing-blackout-bernie-sanders

[Non-RedNeck Westsider]

The front page story is about such issues as "work force anxieties," "shrinking middle class," "stagnant wages," and a growing income gap at pre-Depression levels. The candidate who has been raising these issues longer and louder than any others is Bernie Sanders. Yet the New York Times story about these issues does not even mention Bernie Sanders, although it mentions others with less credibility.

http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/why-ny-times-basically-doing-blackout-bernie-sanders

His conclusion was... 'shocking'...

Bernie Sanders has always been all about serious treatment for a sick economy. Bernie Sanders is getting to be a bigger and bigger elephant in the room where denial of the cancer remains powerful. Eventually perhaps the Times and the rest of mainstream media will begin to talk about him honestly. But they are all part of the cancerous system and benefit from it. So perhaps a more radical infusion will come through other channels.

[fsquid]

If these big crowds start getting more diverse, then I would say he's a serious candidate. 

Are you talking about Sanders or any Republican?

shit, Romney did better with blacks than Bernie is polling.

[Tacachale]

If these big crowds start getting more diverse, then I would say he's a serious candidate. 

Are you talking about Sanders or any Republican?

shit, Romney did better with blacks than Bernie is polling.

I know, right? Tone deafness on race issues isn't exclusively a Republican thing.

[Tacachale]

And again, Republicans don't have to worry about getting out of the Democratic primary. Of course most of them are hamstrung on the race issue, except maybe Rubio and Jeb with Hispanics, but they have their own core of mainly white voters. I guarantee that (at least) one Republican will come out of the Republican primary.

Sanders has a separate issue. He carries pretty well with white progressives and however many self-identifying "socialists" there actually are, but so far, he has not carried well with non-white Dems. Here's a newer breakdown from just last week:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/07/16/bernie-sanderss-limited-appeal-even-to-democrats/

Only 28% of non-white Democrats have a favorable opinion of Sanders, while 23% have a disfavorable opinion. Clinton, by contrast, is 86% to 9%. Bottom line is, Sanders has a problem. Maybe he can turn it around, I guess we'll see.

[Tacachale]

And again, Republicans don't have to worry about getting out of the Democratic primary. Of course most of them are hamstrung on the race issue, except maybe Rubio and Jeb with Hispanics, but they have their own core of mainly white voters. I guarantee that (at least) one Republican will come out of the Republican primary.

Sanders has a separate issue. He carries pretty well with white progressives and however many self-identifying "socialists" there actually are, but so far, he has not carried well with non-white Dems. Here's a newer breakdown from just last week:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/07/16/bernie-sanderss-limited-appeal-even-to-democrats/

Only 28% of non-white Democrats have a favorable opinion of Sanders, while 23% have a disfavorable opinion. Clinton, by contrast, is 86% to 9%. Bottom line is, Sanders has a problem. Maybe he can turn it around, I guess we'll see.

and yet he is bringing larger crowds and has raised more money than Obama did at the same time during his (also doomed) campaign for president.

I think Ron Paul was similar. We see how far that got him.

[Tacachale]

And again, Republicans don't have to worry about getting out of the Democratic primary. Of course most of them are hamstrung on the race issue, except maybe Rubio and Jeb with Hispanics, but they have their own core of mainly white voters. I guarantee that (at least) one Republican will come out of the Republican primary.

Sanders has a separate issue. He carries pretty well with white progressives and however many self-identifying "socialists" there actually are, but so far, he has not carried well with non-white Dems. Here's a newer breakdown from just last week:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/07/16/bernie-sanderss-limited-appeal-even-to-democrats/

Only 28% of non-white Democrats have a favorable opinion of Sanders, while 23% have a disfavorable opinion. Clinton, by contrast, is 86% to 9%. Bottom line is, Sanders has a problem. Maybe he can turn it around, I guess we'll see.

and yet he is bringing larger crowds and has raised more money than Obama did at the same time during his (also doomed) campaign for president.

I think Ron Paul was similar. We see how far that got him.

He ran against Obama.  Who was doomed, as you remember.

No, he ran in the Republican primaries, and lost big time to McCain and then Romney. He was another guy who had strong support from one particular group, and basically no one else.

[The_Choose_1]

And again, Republicans don't have to worry about getting out of the Democratic primary. Of course most of them are hamstrung on the race issue, except maybe Rubio and Jeb with Hispanics, but they have their own core of mainly white voters. I guarantee that (at least) one Republican will come out of the Republican primary.

Sanders has a separate issue. He carries pretty well with white progressives and however many self-identifying "socialists" there actually are, but so far, he has not carried well with non-white Dems. Here's a newer breakdown from just last week:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/07/16/bernie-sanderss-limited-appeal-even-to-democrats/

Only 28% of non-white Democrats have a favorable opinion of Sanders, while 23% have a disfavorable opinion. Clinton, by contrast, is 86% to 9%. Bottom line is, Sanders has a problem. Maybe he can turn it around, I guess we'll see.

and yet he is bringing larger crowds and has raised more money than Obama did at the same time during his (also doomed) campaign for president.

I think Ron Paul was similar. We see how far that got him.

He ran against Obama.  Who was doomed, as you remember.

No, he ran in the Republican primaries, and lost big time to McCain and then Romney. He was another guy who had strong support from one particular group, and basically no one else.

And this is Checkmate great comment Tacachale.