Jacksonville Mayoral election 2015

[sheclown]

[I-10east]

Lenny Curry endorsed by former Mayor John Delaney, and former presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

http://www.news4jax.com/politics/lenny-curry-endorsed-by-john-delaney-mitt-romney/32508018

[mtraininjax]

And Curry's poor performance, mostly because of inexperience, pretty much guarantees Brown, who got 42.8% tonight, re election.

That was with a split vote. We shall see who shows up in May for the election.

[tufsu1]

Lenny Curry endorsed by former Mayor John Delaney, and former presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

http://www.news4jax.com/politics/lenny-curry-endorsed-by-john-delaney-mitt-romney/32508018

knowing that people like Romney, Marco Rubio, and Rick Perry endorse him plays a big part in my support for Curry

[Dog Walker]

knowing that people like Romney, Marco Rubio, and Rick Perry endorse Curry plays a big part in the reason I'm going to vote for Brown.

[Cheshire Cat]

Lenny Curry endorsed by former Mayor John Delaney, and former presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

http://www.news4jax.com/politics/lenny-curry-endorsed-by-john-delaney-mitt-romney/32508018

knowing that people like Romney, Marco Rubio, and Rick Perry endorse him plays a big part in my support for Curry

This is a joke right?  Tell me it's a joke. 

[-jerrycornwell]

And Curry's poor performance, mostly because of inexperience, pretty much guarantees Brown, who got 42.8% tonight, re election.

That was with a split vote. We shall see who shows up in May for the election.

Curry just leaped ahead. His accusation of Brown being a Hillary clone just wiped the slate clean. If Curry convinces Jax voters of such, he'll be our new mayor. Browns new announcement concerning action towards discrimination fell in place for Curry.
And the debates havent even started.

[Cheshire Cat]

And Curry's poor performance, mostly because of inexperience, pretty much guarantees Brown, who got 42.8% tonight, re election.

That was with a split vote. We shall see who shows up in May for the election.

Curry just leaped ahead. His accusation of Brown being a Hillary clone just wiped the slate clean. If Curry convinces Jax voters of such, he'll be our new mayor. Browns new announcement concerning action towards discrimination fell in place for Curry.
And the debates havent even started.

Interesting perspective but in order for the slate to be wiped clean Democrat, Independent, NPA's and undecided will have to buy into that being a bad thing. That simply will not happen.  GOP hardliners will love the statement but those are the people Curry has in pocket already. 

[Tacachale]

^I agree. Both campaigns are listening far to much to state and national party "operatives", rather than people who know how to win in Jacksonville. It's too bad, as now no one is effectively reaching moderates and independents.

[Cheshire Cat]

^I agree. Both campaigns are listening far to much to state and national party "operatives", rather than people who know how to win in Jacksonville. It's too bad, as now no one is effectively reaching moderates and independents.

Agree and agree.

[mtraininjax]

May is right around the corner and the airwaves are about to get busy!

[Tacachale]

The latest poll by St. Pete Polls shows Curry leading, 49% to Brown's 45%. That leaves only 6% undecided and less than 2 weeks to reach them.

http://www.saintpetersblog.com/archives/230208

[Tacachale]

The latest poll by St. Pete Polls shows Curry leading, 49% to Brown's 45%. That leaves only 6% undecided and less than 2 weeks to reach them.

http://www.saintpetersblog.com/archives/230208

meh.  A link to a florida politics article by AG Gancarski.  While Tony's interpretation of what the polls mean is amusing, its not terribly accurate. Wishful thinking isn't a really great basis on which to do analysis.

Here is the actual link to the St. Pete Poll conducted by Fextel.
http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2015_FloridaPolitics_Jacksonville_May_5_P3E6.pdf

I just spoke with Matt Florell, President (and owner) of the Fextel company that conducted the poll, and it turns out that they only included people that they could reach on landlines.  No cell phones, (including obamaphones) and no email addresses or response forms.  Not a very representative sample of who is showing up to vote in order to make a conclusive finding, and certainly hasn't been a good indicator in previous polls ability to predict the outcomes of close elections.

In fact, the last election had a similar poll finding Hogan winning by 8 points just a couple of days before the election.

The analysis provided at your link is especially meaningless in light of the fact that the margin of error, (3.1 %) combined with the confidence level (95%) that Fextel admits to places the election exactly where everyone has been thinking it is: Dead heat.

For what it's worth, it matches what I heard last night from the Curry camp's latest internal polls. We'll see how accurate the poll is and how much changes in the next 13 days.

[mtraininjax]

http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2015-05-06/story/mayor-brown-agrees-action-news-debate-challenger-lenny-curry#cxrecs_s

Mayor Brown caves...... 

Mayor Alvin Brown said Wednesday he will participate in an Action News debate with challenger Lenny Curry, agreeing to that debate just hours before it will take place.

Brown previously declined Action News' invitation a month ago. He said Wednesday he changed his mind because he wants to "look Lenny in the eye" and rebut criticism Curry has leveled in the course of the campaign — criticism that Brown labeled distortion and lies.

"The decision was made to defend the city of Jacksonville," Brown said. "Lenny Curry has been going around over the last few months, but especially over the last several weeks, and has done nothing but criticize Jacksonville. He's lied about who we are and what we've accomplished and sought to diminish our incredible growth over the last four years."

The decision was made to defend the city of Jacksonville........

[DuvalHusky]

If the survey is conducted without cell phones in the model, it's useless. Ask President Romney. Of course, this will be a blue hair election as few people under 40 vote in odd year local elections.

Tonight's spectacle will look like a GOP primary which is sad. Lenny Curry's people believe he won already (before the debate) despite the fact his answers and talking points could fit on a cocktail napkin. After the Palin-Biden debate in 2008, the GOP is convinced debates can be won by trained chimps so long as the answers are sufficiently vacuous and accusatory. Curry is too disciplined to fall into any rabbit holes laid by Brown I'm afraid.