Election day 3/24/2015 "What Voters & Candidates Learned"

[Cheshire Cat]

Seven days ago we learned the outcome of campaigns from the top job of Mayor to our local district council seats.  What did the election tell us and what should know headed into the runoff elections to be held May 19th,2015, the obvious and not so obvious.  Lets begin by looking at voter turn out.  Turn out for March 24, 2015 was predicted to be between 30 to 35 percent.  Closer to the actual election Jerry Holland predicted a turn out of about 33% and he was pretty much right on.  The turn out was 33.77%.  Good estimate Jerry but a reality that tells us that our future here in Jacksonville is being decided by 1/3 of our registered/active voters.  That is an ugly stat. 

Consider this. 

We have 549,069 registered voters in our city. Of those 185,395 voters actually cast a vote in what is our most "important" local elections cycle so far in 2015.  A cycle that would decide who our next Mayor and Sheriff would be along with all our district seats, local and at large.  We would also be deciding who would be the next Supervisor of Elections. Apparently only 33.77% of our registered voters even cared enough to involve themselves, this percentage not including those individuals who have never even bothered to register.  It's a pretty sad statement Jacksonville, but we are not the only city getting such low voter turn outs.  This begs a question which is, why aren't people engaged and involved in the making of their own future considering mail in ballots and early voting?  Are they lazy, disenchanted with the process, sick of politics and politicians and their unfulfilled promises and more?  Ponder this question and we can return to it later in another discussion.  Clearly things must change and voter interest must improve.

Let's look at the race for mayor and try and figure out why 801 people who went to the polls on or before 3/24 did not cast a vote for mayor. Now realize this fact, 2,222 people who went to vote did not bother to cast a vote for sheriff.  Considering the crime in our community one has to say, what's up with that?  There were 7 candidates to choose from. There are numbers even scarier than that.  In the At Large District 1 race, which all voters can vote on, 7,967 voters who went to the polls did not cast a vote. Of the At Large District 3 race 5,570 voters left their votes on the table and in the At Large District 5 race a whopping 10,181 voters who were a part of the final turn out, didn't bother to cast a vote. Think about that for a moment.

There are five undecided seats that all voters can vote for in the runoff election on May 19th, 2015.  Some districts also have run offs and the people living in those districts will be voting in six races.

Let's look at the mayors race.  I am including party designation in what was supposed to be a "unitary" election in order to evidence the reality that in our city party still matters a lot to voters and this is a main criterion for them when voting.  It is also the main reason that we are often saddled with politicians who put party first and constituents needs and wants into the equation further down the ladder, below the big money and special interests that drive their parties.  These interests and their influence are clearly evidenced via the funding of individual campaigns.

The voter breakdown from 3/24/2015 is as follows:

Race for Mayor

Alvin Brown  (incumbent)  (D)            78,713 votes for 42.64%
Lenny Curry                     (R)             70,891 votes for 38.4%          (putting Curry a mere 4.24% behind Brown)
Bill Bishop                        (R)             30,944 votes for 16.76%
Omega Allen                    (NPA)           4,046  votes for 2.19%

Now lets look at the money in this race from the start to the last finance reports ending 3/19/25

Alvin Brown                  $626,570.94 individual & PAC contributions          Total: $1,434,926.86
                                   $808,355,92 in kind contributions
       
                                                                                                            Distributions:  $535,356.10

The above numbers mean that Alvin Brown spent a total of $6.80 for every individual vote he received.


Lenny Curry                  $693,978.12 individual and PAC contributions       Total: $921,974.30
                                    $227,996.18 in kind contributions

                                                                                                            Distributions:  $612,813.29

The above numbers mean that Lenny Curry spent a total of $8.64 for every individual vote he received.


Bill Bishop                    $119.960.00 individual contributions                     Total:  $120,873.26
                                          $913.26 in kind contributions

The above numbers mean that Bill Bishop spent a total of $3.62 per vote he received.

I didn't bother with the numbers for Allen in this analysis.


So what does all of this mean for the race for mayor in the election for May 19th?   It means that of the 184,594 votes cast 81.04% went to Brown and Curry with a breakdown of Dem Brown at 42.64% and Rep Curry at 38.4% with Brown just 4.24% ahead of Curry at that point. It will be very important where the votes of Rep Bill Bishop end up going.  He garnered 30,944 votes 16.76% as a moderate republican.  Who will get those votes?  They certainly will be important to the outcome in May.  Today Bill Bishop will be making an announcement on the steps of City Hall at 3:00 pm.  I anticipate that he will let the public know if he is going to endorse a candidate for mayor and who that candidate is.  Of course he can decide not to endorse either candidate and let them battle for his votes.  We shall soon see what his choice will be, however considering his is holding such a sizable equity in votes, I would imagine he might deliver an endorsement and continue his influence on this race and the future of Jacksonville.  I talked with him several weeks back about his and shared with him the choice I thought would be best.  Now I am anxious to see if he agreed with me. 



                                   
                                 



 

[Cheshire Cat]

Update.  Bill Bishop has decided "not" to endorse anyone which is exactly what I hoped he would do though I felt he "might" endorse one. Glad he did not.  Let both candidates for mayor earn their own support. Best news is that he will run in 2019 which I urged him to do some time back.  Well played Bill.  Of course us "Billeavers" understand a vote for Brown this time will clear the road for Bill in 2019.