How far are we on developing that Plan B for JAXPORT?

[Ocklawaha]

Oh no, I fully realize it, we're still 'talking streetcar' 33 years after DDA adopted it as a worthy project. Now we're doing the same darn thing with our port. I just want to make the point that in 33 years M/L the ships currently calling will be gone. And 33 years is about the window I'd give this. If 33 years from now our city council puts some brain dead moratorium on Port funding... our Titanic sinks. That said, 33 years is hardly a race, we have 1/3 of a century to get this done in some form or another. This is why I like the ideas we discussed about Fernandina or the Fanning Island area.


The entrance channel project depth is 46 feet and it is 500 feet wide. Up as far as the intercoastal those depths stay between 46 and 47.8 feet. The distance from this channel to the current port is about 2.5 nautical miles, and while the waterway is maintained at a depth of just 12 feet, the Rayonier Reach is 46 feet deep, meaning you've got deep water from the channel to Rayonier.


From the mouth of the sea into St. Johns bar cut east range (approx. the entrance to NS Mayport) the channel is 48.5' deep and 800' wide. The St. Johns bar cut range to the Pilot Town cut is only 38.6' and 750' wide, finally the Pilot Town cut range is 43.2' feet and 850-900' wide all the way to Fanning Island where the ferry landing/Atlantic Shipyards, roughly 4-5 nautical miles from deep water. If Fanning Island could be purchased from the ferry landing to Atlantic Shipyards there would be ample room for both a turning basin and a massive container terminal.

Add a railroad branchline from Cecil/Westlake-Dinsmore-JIA/Free Trade Zone-Blount Island-Fanning Island would open this whole area to industrial growth, city bypass, intermodal interchange and true deep water at a fraction of the cost of a 15 mile channel. A simple JAXPORT RAILWAY from the current Blount Island branchline to Fanning Island would fall somewhere between 5-7 miles. WAY CHEAPER and less damaging then the super ditch.

Either of these ideas would make us able to handle ships up to the Triple E Class and they along with a few Post Panamax Class are likely going to be the secondary ships for a long, long time.

[Tacachale]

My understanding is pretty close to Ock's, the larger ships are the way of the future. It may be a "race" right now for that first wave, but eventually they'll become the status quo and other opportunities will be displaced. This is both good and bad from our perspective. On the one hand, it means we'll still have a chance at trade when and if we ever get our act together. On the other, it means we can't just fall back on "plan B" because eventually, "plan A" is going to be all there is, so we *really* need to get our act together.

[thelakelander]

So much can happen in +30 years, which is why it's more imperative to not be tunnel visioned locally.  A good plan B evaluates economic opportunity outside of just deepening the St. Johns River.  For example, as Ock has mentioned, perhaps it means evaluating a port on a naturally deeper river, such the small one in Fernandina.  It's a subject no one wants to discuss but do we expect Mayport Naval Station to be around in 2040-50?  If it goes, what happens to its basin?  Is it worth thinking out of the box and teaming up with the Georgia Port Authority and doing something in St. Marys?  Maybe it's worth giving Gulftainer a call back? At this point, who knows if these are potential logical economic answers?

[icarus]

"A simple JAXPORT RAILWAY from the current Blount Island branchline to Fanning Island would fall somewhere between 5-7 miles. WAY CHEAPER and less damaging then the super ditch."


+1

[Ocklawaha]

Exactly. The Malacca Max will never fully take charge as hundreds if not thousands of ports will never be able to handle them. Yet the scale of economics doesn't bode well for the current size ships. My crystal ball says this will play into the hands of the railroads, as smaller ports become non-players, there will be more and more consolidation to the mega-ports. The trouble the Malacca Max will have is not just channel depth (about 60') but they are too large to even enter, make the turns or navigate a turning basin in many ports, some of which represent entire countries. If we are going to play that role of a secondary size ship port, we have to figure this out and act within 10-15 years and during that entire time our traffic may start to seriously dip. Crazy as this may seem, even New York City is out of the Malacca Max game, Los Angeles is singing a happy tune.

[thelakelander]

If Fanning Island could be purchased from the ferry landing to Atlantic Shipyards there would be ample room for both a turning basin and a massive container terminal.

Add a railroad branchline from Cecil/Westlake-Dinsmore-JIA/Free Trade Zone-Blount Island-Fanning Island would open this whole area to industrial growth, city bypass, intermodal interchange and true deep water at a fraction of the cost of a 15 mile channel. A simple JAXPORT RAILWAY from the current Blount Island branchline to Fanning Island would fall somewhere between 5-7 miles. WAY CHEAPER and less damaging then the super ditch.

Hmm, I wonder what the true cost would be?  The whole riverfront on Fanning is built out between the ferry and the shipyards. Plus, this would add an industrial rail line in the Timucuan Preserve.

[thelakelander]

^What's your point?  I believe this is a time sensitive situation and Ock doesn't.

[If_I_Loved_you]

Jaxport will survive without the Post - Panamax ship!

Yes, the world is afloat with canoes, kayaks, and trawlers. This is not a question of if our port will survive, JAXPORT isn't going anywhere soon, but the ships that currently serve it will start to vanish as uneconomical. All of the auto statistics in the world won't save us if Savannah can land more cars in a single bottom then we can land in two, at that point, were out of the game.

But the post panamax ships will likely be dwarfed in the future by the next "big" thing.  Why should we not try to support them now to better secure us for the future?  Sure, we may not be THE port on the east coast but should still have the flexibility to dock a few post panamax ships in the midst of focusing on the smaller more flexible boats.

The 'next big thing' is already on the coming off the ways.  Maersk Line, has taken lead in ordering these ships, designated the 'Triple-E' class of vessels. The 'Triple-E' stands for Economy of scale, Energy efficiency and Environmental improvements. These vessels would not be able to navigate the Panama Canal but could possibly transit the new ALL-SEA-LEVEL canal across NW Colombia, being developed by Colombia, China and a few old railroad guys.

These Triple E's are simply enormous and Miami is already moving into position with its deep water:

Length overall: 1,315 feet
Beam: 194 feet
Draught: 48 feet
Cargo capacity: 18,000 teus
Service speed: 19 knots / 21.86 mph

For comparison the largest aircraft carriers are the Nimitz class at 1,092 feet. 

This whole thing isn't about how deep the St. Johns, or the Savannah, or Biscayne Bay, is. All of this is about 'slots' for container capacity -vs- economic reality for the shipping lines. The cost per TEU slot will have to be decided on a shipping line by shipping line basis, but those who tarry stand to lose it all. 

This takes me back to the Post-Panamax ships, these are already becoming the older generation - niche market contenders. The Triple-E Class ship is the new targeted delivery size. Smaller (current) ships will survive a few years will be sold to Gillette and then vanish from the waves. Thus Post-Panamax is not going to be the upper bar but the lower bar.

The Malacca Max, the largest vessels that can ply the Straits of Malacca between India and SE Asia. These operators will hold a huge advantage of some 30% in cost savings over the 'smaller vessel,' owners. These behemoths will carry a staggering 30,000 TEU's each... and they are already on the books too. At the moment only Shanghai, Singapore and Rotterdam could handle them.


A TEU is equivalent of a 20' foot container, thus a 40' container = 2 TEU's

I hate to see us attempt to put all of our cookies into this post panamax basket because it's a race we have no chance of winning, given how far we are behind most of our competitors.

Perhaps, we should be looking at the port in Fernandina instead of figuring out how to get ships 20 miles upstream?  Maybe, we should team up with Georgia and see if it makes sense to develop the old Durango paper mill site in St. Marys as a container port?

Perhaps we need to be investing in multiple rail connections and reviewing our incentive packages for companies considering taking advantage of the port. 

Maybe, it's not a bad idea to try to bring more private terminals like Keystone and Crowley, go after a few ship repair/rebuilding companies, or major manufacturers who need water access?

That's where my mindset is right now. For me, it's not a "dredge now" or "shrivel up and die" situation.

Lake, while I certainly agree with your alternative ideas, this isn't really a race as most both at JAXPORT and our competition seem to think, because there is ample time to adjust.. The day the ribbon is cut on the canal won't spell the instant end of shipping as we know it. It will however spell the beginning of that end, this will be a season change where more and more 'Jacksonville's, Tampa's and Brunswick's' are going to have to make their own changes to accommodate larger and larger vessels, or throw in their cards. This thing is going to creep across a decade or two before the final winners and losers play out their hands.

(Yes, the world is afloat with canoes, kayaks, and trawlers. This is not a question of if our port will survive, JAXPORT isn't going anywhere soon, but the ships that currently serve it will start to vanish as uneconomical. All of the auto statistics in the world won't save us if Savannah can land more cars in a single bottom then we can land in two, at that point, were out of the game.) We export more vehicles then any port in America. "The Jacksonville Port Authority (JAXPORT) is a full-service, international trade seaport in Jacksonville, Florida, USA. JAXPORT and its maritime partners handled more than 520,000 vehicles in fiscal year 2011, making JAXPORT the number one vehicle export port in the United States. http://www.automotivelogisticsmagazine.com/buyers-guide/jaxport-2013-3" Jaxport will survive without the Post - Panamax ship!

[If_I_Loved_you]

If Fanning Island could be purchased from the ferry landing to Atlantic Shipyards there would be ample room for both a turning basin and a massive container terminal.

Add a railroad branchline from Cecil/Westlake-Dinsmore-JIA/Free Trade Zone-Blount Island-Fanning Island would open this whole area to industrial growth, city bypass, intermodal interchange and true deep water at a fraction of the cost of a 15 mile channel. A simple JAXPORT RAILWAY from the current Blount Island branchline to Fanning Island would fall somewhere between 5-7 miles. WAY CHEAPER and less damaging then the super ditch.

Hmm, I wonder what the true cost would be?  The whole riverfront on Fanning is built out between the ferry and the shipyards. Plus, this would add an industrial rail line in the Timucuan Preserve.

(Plus, this would add an industrial rail line in the Timucuan Preserve.) This will NEVER happen!

[Ocklawaha]

Fanning Island may or may not be practical, but it ought to be studied. I don't think the railroad would present much of a problem, as much as a 3Rd of it could be south of Hecksher Drive if needed. Otherwise the rail link could stay in the median of what would have to become a 4 lane highway.

Pine Island is another possibility, one that cuts the ditch by about 50%, avoids the Dames Point disaster and the low hanging branches of the power lines. It would not however avoid the turn or the water way crossing with their sundry shallows and currents.

One more thing, IF we get up to Post Panamax, we should be able to handle the Triple-E Class. The extra volume will be captured in some additional length and a change in hull shape from a 'V' to a 'U'. This will keep their draft right at the same level as Post Panamax.

Savannah is probably more screwed then we are as they might not be able to handle the extra length of the Triple-E's due to an extremely narrow channel. With their harbor largely west of the bridge, they might have messed up as bad as us. If they ever get their act together on the massive multi-billion dollar joint Georgia-South Carolina terminal in Jasper county, down river from Savannah they will control the largest contiguous port terminal in the USA. The project thus far has degenerated into a pissing contest between the SC County, Savannah, Georgia and South Carolina, with each attacking and filing lawsuits  against each other.

We're not the only ones screw up... but watch out for Miami which will be 50'. The only drawback to Miami's growth is terminal space and a fairly short channel which is cut through some very shallow waters. 

[Ocklawaha]

Hey, at least I'm half way safe. Tumaco, Puerto Bolivar and  Berth 6 at Santa Marta, Colombia are all 60' plus. Santa Marta and Puerto Bolivar both have highway and rail service on dock. Puerto Turbo, west of Cartagena will likely be next with the China/Colombia rail/canal project. 

[Ocklawaha]

JAXPORT and its maritime partners handled more than 520,000 vehicles in fiscal year 2011, making JAXPORT the number one vehicle export port in the United States. http://www.automotivelogisticsmagazine.com/buyers-guide/jaxport-2013-3" Jaxport will survive without the Post - Panamax ship!

What your missing my good friend is that without the ships, no amount of good port or high numbers in the past is going to help us. Feeder ships won't be hauling cargo to a place like the current JAXPORT when it will be 30-50% cheaper to land or ship that cargo (automobiles) in Miami or Los Angeles. We need a plan and decisive action. The newest ships are 4.4x larger and that much cheaper to operate then the ships of 1960-70's vintage.

[If_I_Loved_you]

JAXPORT and its maritime partners handled more than 520,000 vehicles in fiscal year 2011, making JAXPORT the number one vehicle export port in the United States. http://www.automotivelogisticsmagazine.com/buyers-guide/jaxport-2013-3" Jaxport will survive without the Post - Panamax ship!

What your missing my good friend is that without the ships, no amount of good port or high numbers in the past is going to help us. Feeder ships won't be hauling cargo to a place like the current JAXPORT when it will be 30-50% cheaper to land or ship that cargo (automobiles) in Miami or Los Angeles. We need a plan and decisive action. The newest ships are 4.4x larger and that much cheaper to operate then the ships of 1960-70's vintage.

Well I guess we have to wait and see what happens?

[thelakelander]

Isn't the dredging project only to Dames Point? If so, are we saying Talleyrand and all of the private terminals and industries lining the river, between DT and Dames Point are screwed, regardless of dredging or not? I wonder if a recent addition like Keystone believes this? Or are we only talking about the container aspect?

[Ocklawaha]

Here's a quick list of the various river segments known as cuts, reaches, turns and ranges. I thought such a reference might be useful so everyone interested can follow the marine-speak here and in the news releases.
Beyond the Pilot Town Cut Range running west:
From the ferry to Sherman Point - The Mayport Cut Range
From Sherman Point to just east of the inter-coastal - The Mile Point Lower Range and Turn (big trouble spot)
From the Inter-coastal to about Mid Pine Island - Training Wall Reach
From Mid Pine Island to a point even with the end of Ramoth Drive - Short Cut Turn
From the end of Ramoth Drive to about Shell Bay Road - White Shells Cut Range
From about Shell Bay Road to the Black River - St. Johns Bluff Reach
From the Black River to the Dames Point Bridge - Dames Point-Fulton Cut-Off Range
From the Dames Point Bridge to TraPac - Dames Point Turn
From the TraPac to about the end of August Drive - Quarantine Island Upper Range
From about the end of August Drive to Dunns Creek - Brills Cut Range
From Dunns Creek to the Broward River - Broward Point Turn
From the Broward River to the north bank of the Trout River - Drummond Creek Range
From the Trout River to NU Star Terminal - Trout River Cut Range
From Nu Star Terminal to Long Branch Creek - Chaseville Turn
Long Branch Creek to TransMontaigne - Long Branch Range
TransMontaigne to Commodore Point - Terminal Channel