How far are we on developing that Plan B for JAXPORT?

[thelakelander]

Oh my, how the port talk has changed over the last year.  We've gone from a sell of being a global port and one of the largest on the east coast to ultimate failure if we can get approval this year to dredge to 47 feet.

TraPac terminal could face "ultimate failure" without congressional action on deepening channel

Dennis Kelly, the general manager of the TraPac cargo terminal that opened in 2009 with towering cranes near the Dames Point bridge, writes letters the way he talks — he cuts to the chase and lays it on the line.

In a letter sent Monday to U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown, Kelly said TraPac's future success in Jacksonville boils down to Congress ensuring a big bill on national water projects includes authorization for deepening the St. Johns River.
If Congress doesn't give that authorization, "TraPac's path will be set on the road to diminishing returns and ultimate failure at the Dames Point location," Kelly wrote bluntly.

The message is the strongest signal yet that TraPac is concerned about its long-term future in Jacksonville.

full article: http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2013-09-18/story/trapac-terminal-could-face-ultimate-failure-without-congressional-action#ixzz2fKuMZice

[Jason]

Sure wish our port's future wasn't in the hands of the Feds....   

[thelakelander]

For a number of reasons, I'm of the opinion that we are the major problem, moreso than the Feds. 

[Jason]

^ That's what I was alluding to.  Something this important should be handled "in house", IMO.  The Feds should not have the final say, Jacksonville should.  There HAS to be other funding mechanisims.

[thelakelander]

Without a doubt, we would have already seriously screwed up the river's ecosystem if it were in the hands of local control.

[Jason]

Heh, you're probably right.

So, are you saying you're against the deepening?

[thelakelander]

No. I just don't believe in that dredging to 47'-50' will result in the job creation numbers being tossed around or that it's our only option to grow port activity.  I hate to see us attempt to put all of our cookies into this post panamax basket because it's a race we have no chance of winning, given how far we are behind most of our competitors.

I've been asking about a "Plan B" for a few years now, after questioning the numbers behind a presentation JAXPORT gave when I was a part of the Mayor's Transportation Transition Team.  What was pitched seemed highly unrealistic then and after doing my own research on the industry outside of Jax, it sounded even more silly.

[Jason]

But the post panamax ships will likely be dwarfed in the future by the next "big" thing.  Why should we not try to support them now to better secure us for the future?  Sure, we may not be THE port on the east coast but should still have the flexibility to dock a few post panamax ships in the midst of focusing on the smaller more flexible boats.

[thelakelander]

I believe there's a balance that must be found between dredging, the health of the river and the impact of dredging on other industries and quality of life issues in the area.  To date, it appears much of this discussion has been pushed aside.

There's also the economic side of shipping and how Jax plays into that role.

Perhaps, we should be looking at the port in Fernandina instead of figuring out how to get ships 20 miles upstream?  Maybe, we should team up with Georgia and see if it makes sense to develop the old Durango paper mill site in St. Marys as a container port?

Maybe we should be looking a taking advantage of things Savannah has done in recent years, resulting in them currently being several times larger than us, despite not already being at 47'-50' deep? Perhaps we need to be investing in multiple rail connections and reviewing our incentive packages for companies considering taking advantage of the port. 

Maybe, it's not a bad idea to try to bring more private terminals like Keystone and Crowley, go after a few ship repair/rebuilding companies, or major manufacturers who need water access?  I'll admit that I don't have all the answers but it appears there's a lot more out there that we can take advantage of, even if we never get to 47'-50'.

That's where my mindset is right now. For me, it's not a "dredge now" or "shrivel up and die" situation.

[If_I_Loved_you]

Oh my, how the port talk has changed over the last year.  We've gone from a sell of being a global port and one of the largest on the east coast to ultimate failure if we can get approval this year to dredge to 47 feet.

TraPac terminal could face "ultimate failure" without congressional action on deepening channel

Dennis Kelly, the general manager of the TraPac cargo terminal that opened in 2009 with towering cranes near the Dames Point bridge, writes letters the way he talks — he cuts to the chase and lays it on the line.

In a letter sent Monday to U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown, Kelly said TraPac's future success in Jacksonville boils down to Congress ensuring a big bill on national water projects includes authorization for deepening the St. Johns River.
If Congress doesn't give that authorization, "TraPac's path will be set on the road to diminishing returns and ultimate failure at the Dames Point location," Kelly wrote bluntly.

The message is the strongest signal yet that TraPac is concerned about its long-term future in Jacksonville.

full article: http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2013-09-18/story/trapac-terminal-could-face-ultimate-failure-without-congressional-action#ixzz2fKuMZice

We export more vehicles then any port in America. "The Jacksonville Port Authority (JAXPORT) is a full-service, international trade seaport in Jacksonville, Florida, USA. JAXPORT and its maritime partners handled more than 520,000 vehicles in fiscal year 2011, making JAXPORT the number one vehicle export port in the United States. http://www.automotivelogisticsmagazine.com/buyers-guide/jaxport-2013-3" Jaxport will survive without the Post - Panamax ship!

[thelakelander]

Corrine may not be able to deliver authorization allowing for the deeping the river before our studies are completed....

full article: http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2013-09-19/story/first-attempt-fails-getting-st-johns-river-dredging-critical-water-bill#ixzz2fN49xWyw

[If_I_Loved_you]

Corrine may not be able to deliver authorization allowing for the deeping the river before our studies are completed....

full article: http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2013-09-19/story/first-attempt-fails-getting-st-johns-river-dredging-critical-water-bill#ixzz2fN49xWyw

Good we need to wait until "The Corps expects to finish a study of deepening the St. Johns River next April."

Read more at Jacksonville.com: http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2013-09-19/story/first-attempt-fails-getting-st-johns-river-dredging-critical-water-bill#ixzz2fN6E45Gq

[thelakelander]

Unfortunately, this is kind of predictable but it's not looking good for Plan A.

After 17 D.C. meetings, Jaxport CEO says deep water may not come soon

It may take a longer time for Jacksonville to get deep water than everyone thinks, said Brian Taylor, CEO of Jacksonville's port authority.

That was Taylor's take away after a week of lobbying Congress for a water bill that authorizes ports projects and pushing for an amendment that includes the Jacksonville deepening project on the to-do list.

"This may not happen as quickly as everyone thinks," Taylor said during a port authority monthly board meeting.

full article: http://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2013/09/23/deep-water-for-jacksonville-may-not.html

[Ocklawaha]

Jaxport will survive without the Post - Panamax ship!

Yes, the world is afloat with canoes, kayaks, and trawlers. This is not a question of if our port will survive, JAXPORT isn't going anywhere soon, but the ships that currently serve it will start to vanish as uneconomical. All of the auto statistics in the world won't save us if Savannah can land more cars in a single bottom then we can land in two, at that point, were out of the game.

But the post panamax ships will likely be dwarfed in the future by the next "big" thing.  Why should we not try to support them now to better secure us for the future?  Sure, we may not be THE port on the east coast but should still have the flexibility to dock a few post panamax ships in the midst of focusing on the smaller more flexible boats.

The 'next big thing' is already on the coming off the ways.  Maersk Line, has taken lead in ordering these ships, designated the 'Triple-E' class of vessels. The 'Triple-E' stands for Economy of scale, Energy efficiency and Environmental improvements. These vessels would not be able to navigate the Panama Canal but could possibly transit the new ALL-SEA-LEVEL canal across NW Colombia, being developed by Colombia, China and a few old railroad guys.

These Triple E's are simply enormous and Miami is already moving into position with its deep water:

Length overall: 1,315 feet
Beam: 194 feet
Draught: 48 feet
Cargo capacity: 18,000 teus
Service speed: 19 knots / 21.86 mph

For comparison the largest aircraft carriers are the Nimitz class at 1,092 feet. 

This whole thing isn't about how deep the St. Johns, or the Savannah, or Biscayne Bay, is. All of this is about 'slots' for container capacity -vs- economic reality for the shipping lines. The cost per TEU slot will have to be decided on a shipping line by shipping line basis, but those who tarry stand to lose it all. 

This takes me back to the Post-Panamax ships, these are already becoming the older generation - niche market contenders. The Triple-E Class ship is the new targeted delivery size. Smaller (current) ships will survive a few years will be sold to Gillette and then vanish from the waves. Thus Post-Panamax is not going to be the upper bar but the lower bar.

The Malacca Max, the largest vessels that can ply the Straits of Malacca between India and SE Asia. These operators will hold a huge advantage of some 30% in cost savings over the 'smaller vessel,' owners. These behemoths will carry a staggering 30,000 TEU's each... and they are already on the books too. At the moment only Shanghai, Singapore and Rotterdam could handle them.


A TEU is equivalent of a 20' foot container, thus a 40' container = 2 TEU's

I hate to see us attempt to put all of our cookies into this post panamax basket because it's a race we have no chance of winning, given how far we are behind most of our competitors.

Perhaps, we should be looking at the port in Fernandina instead of figuring out how to get ships 20 miles upstream?  Maybe, we should team up with Georgia and see if it makes sense to develop the old Durango paper mill site in St. Marys as a container port?

Perhaps we need to be investing in multiple rail connections and reviewing our incentive packages for companies considering taking advantage of the port. 

Maybe, it's not a bad idea to try to bring more private terminals like Keystone and Crowley, go after a few ship repair/rebuilding companies, or major manufacturers who need water access?

That's where my mindset is right now. For me, it's not a "dredge now" or "shrivel up and die" situation.

Lake, while I certainly agree with your alternative ideas, this isn't really a race as most both at JAXPORT and our competition seem to think, because there is ample time to adjust.. The day the ribbon is cut on the canal won't spell the instant end of shipping as we know it. It will however spell the beginning of that end, this will be a season change where more and more 'Jacksonville's, Tampa's and Brunswick's' are going to have to make their own changes to accommodate larger and larger vessels, or throw in their cards. This thing is going to creep across a decade or two before the final winners and losers play out their hands.

[thelakelander]

I don't think you realize how far we are away and that's assuming it's even proven that the river's ecosystem won't be destroyed in the process.  If this were truly a race, we haven't even arrived at the track yet. With that said, it's never a good idea to put all your economic eggs in one basket.  There's other opportunities for us out there.  My guess is that we'll be forced to explore them sooner rather than later.