Downtown losing population?

[thelakelander]

Either downtown is losing population, the imaginary borders changed, they counted the jail population last year or someone is outright lying....

Friday, July 25, 2008
Gas price-powered urbanismHigher fuel costs helping drive Downtown's population growth
Jacksonville Business Journal - by Dan Kukla Correspondent

As gas prices climb over the $4 threshold, Americans are realizing that 'going green' will involve much more than simply downsizing vehicles or carpooling to work. Conserving both fuel and money will soon no longer mean subtle daily choices, but complete lifestyle changes, resulting in what demographers say will amount to wholesale population shifts.

What will this look like? In Jacksonville, it is already being seen in many more residents participating in urban living Downtown, which even a few years ago seemed unattractive.

Since 2002, the total number of Downtown residents in Jacksonville has more than doubled from 1,022 to 2,357 through 2007, according to Downtown Vision Inc., an advocacy group. The group is projecting an increase of another 700 residents this year that would push the total number of residents over 3,000, largely due to living choices in new condominium and apartment towers opening up.

http://jacksonville.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/stories/2008/07/28/focus1.html?b=1217217600%5e1673635


An article with DVI population quotes from last year...

Friday, April 6, 2007
An urban roundup: A look at the status of 14 Downtown projects
Jacksonville Business Journal - by Caty Van Housen Correspondent

A red balloon at the entrance to The Carling apartment tower on West Adams Street touts "For Lease," even though 97 of the 99 apartments are already rented out.

Nearby, geraniums overflow the upstairs wrought-iron parapet at the W.A. Knight Lofts above trendy Chew Restaurant.

Fences surround several Downtown construction sites where historical brick buildings are being transformed into chic dwellings.

Downtown Jacksonville's promise as a place to live seems to be coming true.

To be sure, there are still problems with Downtown living. Groceries can only be found at the two farmers' markets Wednesday and Friday, unless you trek up to the Winn-Dixie in Market Street or over to the Publix in Riverside. Green patches for walking dogs or enjoying the day are few and far between. And homeless panhandlers are present.

Still, the number of Downtown residents is expected to increase by 43 percent this year over last year, growing from 4,178 people in 2006 to 5,956 this year, according to Downtown Vision Inc., a nonprofit group that promotes Downtown and is funded mainly by a special tax assessment Downtown.

In 2001, only 1,900 people were living Downtown, which officially includes the Downtown core, Southbank, Brooklyn and East Bay. By 2005, that number increased to 3,630.

http://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/stories/2007/04/09/focus1.html

[thelakelander]

Its strange.  Although I knew Peyton's goal of 10,000 downtown residents by 2010 was a pipe dream, nearly every article, every year has stated that we've had around 2,500 residents with a couple of hundred more expected by the end of the year.  So what's going on?  Are people, leaving just as fast as they're coming in or is someone manipulating numbers.  If so, which number is right?

[Lunican]

We could reach 10,000 residents downtown by 2010 with an expansion to the jail and homeless shelters.

[TREE4309]

Someone convince these developers that are all going for "luxury" condos to offer an attractive housing project that meets the needs and desires of the "urban pioneers" in their 20s and 30s (i.e. something more than a typical drywall shoebox) for under $200K and you'll get a whole lot closer to 10K downtown residents by 2010.

[zoo]

something more than a typical drywall shoebox) for under $200K

TREE, for under $200k, the only place you'll get what you want is far out in the burbs. downtown land prices prevent builders from doing what you ask unless they are doing it out of charity.

[jbm32206]

Which is why there's not the population count hoped for

[TREE4309]

something more than a typical drywall shoebox) for under $200K

TREE, for under $200k, the only place you'll get what you want is far out in the burbs. downtown land prices prevent builders from doing what you ask unless they are doing it out of charity.

First of all, that's a gross generalization.  It's quite easy to find decent bungalows in Riverside or Murray Hill for under $200K and be within 5 minutes of downtown.  I've been looking into doing my own small residential project downtown, and I honestly believe that a true loft project with a sizeable floorplan is realistic to sell AT A PROFIT for under $200K.  You take out things the lavish amenities like river views, concierge services, workout facilities, conference rooms, etc. and it's amazing how much more affordable a product can be.  The people that WANT to live downtown are not buying $400K condos on the river, which is why we're seeing these high-rise projects on the southbank turn to rentals instead.  Alot of the people that spend time downtown live in Springfield, Riverside, etc. where they can afford to live...it's close to downtown, but it's NOT downtown.  Offer a "cool" product that meets their needs in the price point they can afford and I guarantee you the buyers will come.

[thelakelander]

TREE4309, the main way to get those numbers down to that level is to find dirt cheap property.  That's going to drive everything else needed to get a building to the point of where its ready to sell for under $200k.

Also, most likely, the square footage of the units will have to be in the 500 to 800 sf range.  However, with open floor plans, high ceilings, large windows, etc. you can make these spaces feel much larger than they really are. 

David Furman of David Furman Architecture in Charlotte has made a pretty decent living off finding a way to construct market rate urban housing in an downtown environment.  Whoever can pull what he's doing, off in Jacksonville would probably see the same success.

http://davidfurmanarchitecture.com/website/main.htm

"There are 30,000 people that would live downtown tomorrow if there was availability and if it fell into their price range," Furman says.

Boulevard Centro's success is tied to one of Furman's strongest beliefs about who wants to live in an urban environment, and it's not just empty-nesters.

"It's the group that has been brought up on Seinfeld," he says. "TV is all about urbanism. People crave the notion of their neighbor coming in without knocking and getting something out of the fridge without asking."

Furman believes it is an American phenomenon that its cities are being reclaimed, rediscovered by a generation that craves the excitement of urban living as a foil to the suburbs where many grew up.

He didn't start the trend of revitalizing uptown, or so he says. Furman credits Bank of America Corp. and developer Jim Gross for getting the ball rolling on bringing residents back to the central business district. "I've been a follower. What our company did was identify the group of people relocating to the city, and we redefined the housing mousetrap."

Boulevard Centro developed new types of units devoid of the classic elements such as crown molding and then made them affordable for a younger crowd.

And the only way to make uptown living affordable is to make the spaces smaller, Furman says. "There is a huge piece of the population that will trade square footage for location," he says. "But it has to be cool, and that's what we brought to the table."

http://charlotte.bizjournals.com/charlotte/stories/2005/12/26/focus5.html?jst=s_cn_hl

By most condo standards the Silo units are tiny. At 500 square feet, they're no bigger than a typical studio apartment. But the wide-open units will have few interior walls, 10-foot-high ceilings, and walls of glass looking out on a skyline view. Barbie doll-size kitchens will have just two-burner cooktops and overhead combination convection/ microwave ovens. Furman figures young urbanites will eat out or bring home prepared meals, so why load up on commercial-style and -sized appliances? His main goal was to get the price to $100,000 and under. It worked, and the project sold out last November. "With urban housing going gangbusters for the last few years, the only way you can make it more affordable--because land prices are more expensive and construction is more expensive--is to make it smaller," he explains. "People will trade space for proximity if you make it cool."

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0NTE/is_7_6/ai_91140084

[TREE4309]

Without a doubt...more affordable land = more affordable product, that's a no-brainer.  My only point was that there are opportunities that exist NOW to offer different types of product at an affordable price, developers are just going to have to think differently.  I'll read up on David Furman...I'm not familiar with his projects.  Thanks!

[thelakelander]

I agree that there are opportunities out there.  As you say, its just a matter of being able to get creative, thinking outside of the box and be willing to pounce on the opportunity when it presents itself.

Furman's development company is called Boulevard Centro.  Here's the website:
www.blvdcentro.com/

[tufsu1]

something more than a typical drywall shoebox) for under $200K

TREE, for under $200k, the only place you'll get what you want is far out in the burbs. downtown land prices prevent builders from doing what you ask unless they are doing it out of charity.

not true...some of the townhomes at Parks @ Cathedral (in downtown) are selling for just over $200k....and they have 1500+ square feet!

[tufsu1]

Lake,

I'm pretty sure the older article from the Business Jourbal was a mistake...the DVI/JEDC annual report shows 2,110 units in the downtown area in 2007....add to that Churchwell Lofts and The Peninsula and the # is 2,365....then add 20West and Berkman 2 (still under construction) and you get to 2,607.

The report estimates around 5,000 more proposed/planned units for a total of 7500.

[thelakelander]

So with a population of 2,357, either a good portion of units are empty or downtown is dominated by singles (with no roommates) as opposed to married-with no kids, empty nesters, or married-with small kid couples.

[JaxByDefault]

The article from 2007 states that the downtown population includes the Downtown core plus "Southbank, Brooklyn, and East Bay."

For the latest article, did DVI cut out the other areas and just report the number of people in the downtown core?

[ChriswUfGator]

Lake,

I'm pretty sure the older article from the Business Jourbal was a mistake...the DVI/JEDC annual report shows 2,110 units in the downtown area in 2007....add to that Churchwell Lofts and The Peninsula and the # is 2,365....then add 20West and Berkman 2 (still under construction) and you get to 2,607.

The report estimates around 5,000 more proposed/planned units for a total of 7500.