Khan: Downtown's Laura Street Trio redevelopment deal 'alive but on life support

[tufsu1]

I think Sleiman is sitting pat until he gets his mayor.

well he's donated to Alvin's re-election...so for now, he appears to be hedging bets

[acme54321]

Any more news on this?  Did they give a date for the rescheduled reveal?

[thelakelander]

not yet.

[InnerCityPressure]

It's awesome that this just disappeared.  Sorry, Urban Core.  Maybe next time. 

[ronchamblin]

Disappointed in the delay in revealing the plans for the trio and Barnett.  But not really surprised.  What conditions seem to be preventing progress on this kind of project?  I meander while I have my nightly beer.

One condition is surely the overwhelming lack of existing foot traffic in the core; that is, existing residents, workers, and “non-event type” daily visitors.  One cannot just “wish” the foot traffic to appear, but foot traffic is absolutely necessary for survival of most businesses in a core environment.  The kind of foot traffic needed is the kind which will have increased almost naturally  over time, which means that it is there to stay, and will only disappear over time, giving investors time to do whatever they have to do, such as bail or bring something else in to inject activity. 

Another factor causing problems is the overall poor economy; banks are not willing to lend on a project for which there seems to be no confident or solid return on investment.  How is anyone going to make money on these rather large and, at least for two, awkwardly designed buildings?  Unless there is a solid contract for a large school or university for the Barnett, or perhaps a large company willing to fill it to 60 percent, what else can offer a solid infill probability for the Barnett?

It is possible for someone of great personal wealth to invest $60 million into the buildings, but they had better have a solid plan in place to make money with them, or they will sit, partially filled. 

If more buildings in the core were smaller, it would be easier for more smaller investors to find a method of making money with them.  Then the projects would take less investment up front, and less risk.  For example, the building I purchased for the bookstore/cafe was small enough for me to renovate, and just right for me to utilize to the fullest to make money with it.  If the building had been much larger, I could not have done the project. If it was much smaller, it would not have been big enough for me to make enough money.  As it is, I really wish it was about 30 percent larger, so I could place within it a large section of adult books for the core deviants.

The building next door to my bookstore, purchased about a year ago, which I’ve had to delay on renovation because of other projects, is also the right size.  Purchased for only $290K, the building will cost me about $600K to $700K to renovate to a condition wherein I can make money on all three floors.  The point being that we need more small buildings like this so that not only will more small investors like me be able to buy and renovate them, but they are small enough so that its easier to find ways to make money with them.

Imagine the project of having to arrive at a plan to make money with the huge Barnett Bank building?  And at least two of the trio buildings seem to have designs making it somewhat difficult to arrive at a solid plan to make money with them.  And look at the location of the trio.  There is no adjacent existing activity to lend connectivity, or a neighborhood feel to the project.  This isolation causes difficulty in arriving at good building use.  If there were many smaller or medium sized buildings, all being together along several blocks, then the growth could be more natural, as each adjacent building is developed along the way.     

Unless there is a huge commitment from some single entity, or perhaps two smaller entities to fill most of the Barnett building, its going to be quite difficult to make money with the building. 

The real strength in downtown revitalization will come with gradual, sometimes small, sometimes an occasional larger, investments which have solid plans to make money with the buildings.  Unless somebody has very deep pockets, to buy and renovate without a solid plan for utilization is not enough to allow survival while enduring years of upkeep of a mostly empty building.     

Unfortunately we have few small and medium buildings in the core for the small investors to purchase, renovate, and fill with money making entities.  Perhaps one answer is for a “group” of small investors; dedicated, and impassioned “core” individuals, to form an investment entity so that they could “do” small or medium sized buildings. 

Business survival in a core, whether retail, apartments, condos, or offices depends on an existing core population of residents, workers, and visitors -- its called “foot traffic”.  As this foot traffic increases, then more types of businesses can prosper within the core.  If is fruitless for a certain business type to attempt to open in the core until the “foot traffic” population achieves a certain level.  Each kind of business has its “foot traffic level” threshold.  Below it, and there is failure.  Above it, success.

So, one might say that as the foot traffic population gradually increases in an core, the dynamics emerging as a consequence of this increase, will allow more types and sizes of businesses to prosper.  Until the foot traffic increases, nothing will happen.

So, what do those interested in core development do? .... wait and endure many years of very slow infill into the core?  After all, time, will eventually bring infill, if only because the outlying suburbs will begin to fill up, forcing people back into the core.

There must be some kind of artificial boost or force to speed up the process of core infill.  And that’s partially what things like “Art Walk” and “Programming” Hemming are meant to do.  And I suppose the boosts come from grants to businesses, and tax breaks too.

What other boosts, tricks, investments, machinations, grants, persuasions, tax breaks, etc, can increase the rate at which a stable core population “foot traffic” can be forced upon the core?.... for once a certain population threshold is achieved, once the foot traffic reaches a certain point, then the most powerful pressure of all will be in place, which is that of the natural draw, a powerful invitation, a feeling of necessity, to all investors, entrepreneurs, residents, and visitors -- which says that, the core is the place to be now -- the core is where the money is, where the people are, where the future is. 

The first and second generation malls and the business parks have had there day -- the St. John’s Town Center is having its day.  Soon, the city core will once again have its day.  The trick is to somehow, by whatever means, “force” an increase of the stable core population toward the threshold level, because doing so, will not only bring more residents into the core, but it will put in place the powerful natural condition wherein everyone will “want” to move into the core with all types of businesses.  Most important, residents will want to move into the core.

Its much like starting a fire.  One must work to arrange conditions so that the natural work and magic of the fire can begin.  If nobody prepares conditions for the fire, there will be none.  Once a fire is started, it continues by way of natural laws, only requiring a little guidance and feeding from those who started it.     

Because of poor or wet kindling, or because of a capricious wind, some fires are difficult to start, and thus require more work and sacrifice, but because of the difficulty, the flame is more beautiful.
 

 
 

[vicupstate]

Excellent poiints Ron.  Your point about the number of small to medium size buildings is why it is so important to stop demolition of  buildings like those that use to line LaVilla (ie 'Worman's).  Sure they may not be architectural masterpieces, but they allow organic growth to happen more easily versus new construction. 

Residential growth is what I think will bring the foot traffic.  Just don't know if the numbers work to do it yet.

[heights unknown]

I like Mr. Khan's attitude toward the Football Team, the City, and how he feels the City and the Jaguars should fit snuggly together like a well fitted piece within a puzzle board. He's a straight shooter and tells it like it is. I also like what he said relative to the City's image and stature is very important to the Jaguars and complements the Jaguars and is paramount to the success of the Jaguars, and if I am not incorrect, I think he also means vice versa. Great guy in my opinion.

[heights unknown]

Hopefully the Trio project will stay on course this time.

www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/blog/2013/03/historic-downtown-trio-back-in-play.html

I hope the new buyer doesn't wreck ball these downtown gems and leave an empty parking lot there. The potential for these four old gem buildings is unlimited to say the least. If they do "wreck ball" these downtown gems, they'd better build a 900 foot 60 story tower there in that spot, which is dead center in the middle of the downtown core. What about a residential/office/commercial tower with 12 stories of parking garage at the bottom? A major tenant would have to be found though. Pipe dreams you say? Well my forum name is "Heights Unknown," so why not dream big relative to project in this vane which would soar to "heights unknown?"

[heights unknown]

To put it bluntly in regards to Mr. Khan's investments in Downtown and the Laura Trio, a super vibrant and successful downtown is not only good but "super" for the Jaguars and Jacksonville's interests and image nationwide!

[heights unknown]

Pros:  Something will finally happen at this site.
          At $3,000,000 that is one of the all time best buys in Florida Real Estate History.

Cons:  If you are not puting a residential rental community like 11E or The Carling, which have booked
            at 95% occupancy rates since they were finished, you are missing the entire point of what is killing
            downtown. NOT ENOUGH PEOPLE LIVE THERE. A cursory look at the current statistics will reveal a
            strong demand for downtown housing that is going unmet. Putting a restaurant into the Marble bank (I
             presume a high end one) will be a total waste. Will the college kids be eating there? Has Steve Atkins
             ever lived in downtown Jacksonville? A boutique hotel sounds neat until you realize it will do almost 
             nothing for the rest of downtown. Will this project meet the basic needs of a quality grocery store
             downtown , a dry cleaners, a pharmacy? Quality housing for young professionals who move here and
             don't want to live in the 'Burbs?  Basic entertainment besides consuming alcohol?

             I'm happy something is going to happen but I do not like this plan mentioned in the previous thread.

             My opinion, humbly submitted.

@ MusicMan.....I agree wholeheartedly. They need to put something residential, and not low key residential but something big in there "residential wise," and then add the entertainment aspect into the equation relative to supporting the additional people who would live in that residential tower. I also think that a high end restaurant and a boutique hotel is a waste as well; if you put in a restaurant and hotel, put ones in there that everyone, low income, middle class and rich alike would be apt to frequent. They  need to sit down and really think and plan carefully relative to the use of these fantastic jewels in downtown Jacksonville!

[JFman00]

I think it's a very double-edged sword. I love a lot of the housing options downtown, but compared to Riverside (or SJTC for many of my friends), there's much less to do. Unless I worked downtown, or were able to get a kickass place for a steal, living there is a tough sell. Not having very appealing transit options between neighborhoods cancels out the advantages of the central location.

[thelakelander]

Yeah, that's a problem.  Hopefully, some of these connectivity issues can be resolved soon. In the past, I've had several friends select Riverside, San Marco and even Tapestry Park over staying in downtown because they viewed those locations as being more vibrant.

[tufsu1]

I think it's a very double-edged sword. I love a lot of the housing options downtown, but compared to Riverside (or SJTC for many of my friends), there's much less to do. Unless I worked downtown, or were able to get a kickass place for a steal, living there is a tough sell.

I disagree...I live downtown (work on the southside) and am never at a loss for things to do...as to the transit point, you are somewhat correct, although I would contend that no neighborhood in jax. has good transit connectivity

[simms3]

Most downtowns in America aren't the "cool" place to live.  Lower Manhattan only became a still only sort of desirable neighborhood in the past 15 years (it's certainly cheaper).  Midtown is also not the place to live.  Downtown Boston (Fidi/Downtown Crossing) is dead, a couple of projects going up around Chinatown.  The District/Downtown DC is almost exclusively office/government.  The Loop in Chicago pales in comparison to South Loop, West Loop, River North/Streeterville.  The Financial District in SF is pretty dead except for millionaire 40 year olds who live in the condos to the south.  You definitely want to be in Midtown Atlanta before Downtown Atlanta.  Etc etc.

[comncense]

So nothing new on this?