All Aboard Florida train could generate $145M in annual fares

[thelakelander]

If All Aboard Florida reaches those type of numbers, don't be surprised if it's expanded into Jacksonville before we get our first commuter rail line up and running.

A proposed train that would link Orlando International Airport with Miami could generate $145 million in annual fares by 2018, according to records filed by the company with the Florida Department of Transportation, the Orlando Sentinel reports.

http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/morning_call/2012/12/all-aboard-florida-train-could.html

If the All Aboard Florida train becomes a reality, the system linking Orlando International Airport with Miami would generate $145 million in fares annually by 2018, according to records filed by the company with the state.

With one-way tickets estimated in the $100 range, that would mean the Coral Gables-based company is expecting to carry nearly 1.5 million passengers between Central and South Florida within three years of its inaugural trip in 2015.

All Aboard Florida also is seeking a 99-year lease, presumably for free or a token payment, to lay down tracks along the south edge of the BeachLine Expressway, which runs from Interstate 4 south of downtown Orlando to Cocoa on the east coast.

full article: http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/breakingnews/os-miami-to-orlando-train-20121225,0,7345804.story

[spuwho]

Agreed, if they hit those numbers by 2018, Jacksonville could easily see a service extension. The risk would be significantly less.

I just hope they put a 2 place wye in Cocoa. If they have a JAX/MCO service for $45 one way, I could easily use MCO for some transcon flights. They typically run $50-$90 cheaper out of MCO.  No more headaches of using the ATL hub either.

Hey Ock, have you seen any engineering layouts for the Cocoa connection, or is that still being kept close to the vest?

[Ocklawaha]

Previously the HSR outlined two possible connections to the FEC Mainline Southbound, either should join the mainline north of the Cocoa-Rockledge Station.  A north leg on a future wye would set up a Jacksonville - Orlando route via Daytona and Cocoa, rather circuitous. An upgrade of the 'A' line for Jacksonville and Orlando commuter rail projects would make the 'A' line a better route for regional trains, they would, of course, use the OUC Railroad to access the south airport terminal - Sunrail would use the same route and I could see them as a complimentary service.

This will require us having a governor with a logical head on this shoulders and not an enemy of conventional trains, or a fanatic for High Speed Rail. If Florida would just keep it's head out of the nether reaches, we could quickly draw equal to the competition.

To be honest, I'm thrilled that FECI is doing this, but knowing the industry bias against the passenger train, I have serious doubts that this is REALLY 100% private. Somewhere, somehow, the government, local, regional or national is in this up to their smokebox. My sarcastic side says yes, they'll make $145 million that first year with the 1.5 million passengers, with expenses in the $2 billion range.  This success will sputter to about 600,000/800,000 passengers a year and operating expenses of $300 million.

In short, I believe they might send a train to Jacksonville, but if your expecting hourly trains to Jax, I'd have to see it to believe it. They also might go on to Tampa first, possibly using the Tampa Union Station (which has been fully restored for such purposes) rather then Jacksonville and a weed choked hole under the Lee Street Viaduct.

[tufsu1]

the difference is the route to Jax. already has tracks...while the route to Tampa (which clearly would generate more ridership and revenue) requires new track to be constructed.

[thelakelander]

^Pretty much.  I also believe there's a real estate component not being thoroughly investigated by the media.  Everyone is focusing on passenger rail but these guys aren't risking their fortune entirely on trying to find a way to make a profit off passenger.  FEC owns a ton of land along their tracks between Jax and Miami, making an extension to Jax much more feasible than going down I-4 or CSX corridor in either direction.  Btw, the Palm Beach Post is reporting different numbers than the Sentinel:

All Aboard Florida’s research indicated the rail line should build up to 3.29 million riders by 2018 and generate $145 million, according to the company’s proposal.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/business/all-aboard-florida-gets-nod-for-rail-connection-fr/nTZ6r/

[Ocklawaha]

We'll have to wait and see how they set it up. Hopefully the Jacksonville link is more focused on Jacksonville-Miami then it is on Jacksonville-Orlando. This approach is needed to keep the 'A' line alive and well for Amtrak. I understand the property valuation and development situation, but there still seems to be a ghost of public involvement just under the surface. I think the ridership numbers are rather optimistic, in the 3-5 year I don't expect they'll see much above a million passengers per year +/-.

[thelakelander]

Pure speculation but I suspect them already owning track that runs through St. Augustine and Daytona would be more attractive than dealing with CSX for an A-line corridor that completely misses those tourism centers. BTW, did I mention they own lots of land along their already owned track?

[Ocklawaha]

Sorry for the confusion, but I wasn't suggesting FECI use the CSX between Jacksonville and Orlando. The 'A' Line could/would/should host Amtrak Intercity between Jax and Orlando, Sunrail between Poinciana and Deland, and JTA commuter rail between Jacksonville and Palatka. The state (if it ever gets a progressive governor) should focus any corridor service between Jacksonville and Central Florida via the 'A' Line.

The FECI route should run between Jacksonville and Miami, and Orlando and Miami.

[spuwho]

^Pretty much.  I also believe there's a real estate component not being thoroughly investigated by the media.  Everyone is focusing on passenger rail but these guys aren't risking their fortune entirely on trying to find a way to make a profit off passenger.  FEC owns a ton of land along their tracks between Jax and Miami, making an extension to Jax much more feasible than going down I-4 or CSX corridor in either direction.  Btw, the Palm Beach Post is reporting different numbers than the Sentinel:

All Aboard Florida’s research indicated the rail line should build up to 3.29 million riders by 2018 and generate $145 million, according to the company’s proposal.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/business/all-aboard-florida-gets-nod-for-rail-connection-fr/nTZ6r/

Lake,

Completely agree. I have been watching the public statements of the FECI execs at some of the public speaking engagements and they refer to the "Flagler Way", meaning rail serves the real estate.

Some of the commercial real estate folks in Miami say the office tower they plan to build over the station there will be very lucrative.

Also note the execs have spent more time looking at property developments in Palm Beach County and Ft Lauderdale, especially when it comes to station site selection.

While Henry used rail to feed his hotels and resorts, FECI will use rail to support PUD development on their properties.

[Ocklawaha]

Right Lake, everyone should understand that everything is pretty much speculation at this point, but our opinions along with another 6-7 of our regulars are based on education and experience. Bottom line, we're all having some fun with our backseat driving.

Flagler is invested pretty well in our area:

Jacksonville International Tradeport




Gran Park at the Avenues




Deerwood North






Avenues, Including Gran Park at the Avenues





Cordova Palms





DuPont Center





Flagler Station






Office Center at Southpoint





Deerwood South





Nocatee





St. Augustine





Flagler Center

Flagler Development Group is offering to cover the more than $40 million price tag to build most of Phase II.
The DOT has plans to build Phase I in the near future, but Phase II wasn't expected to be funded or built for at least another 25 to 30 years, Doug Miller of England-Thims & Miller, Inc., told the agency.

If the Cordova Palms project is approved, Flagler would cover the cost to build S.R. 313 to offset the DRI's impact on the area.

Miller, whose firm is representing Flagler Development Group, said the entrance to Cordova Palms, which would straddle S.R. 313 at U.S. 1, would be built as a four-lane highway. Further south, the road would be built as a two-lane highway, with the understanding that the county or state could later make it four lanes.

Flagler's offer does not include a flyover ramp that was part of the original plan. The ramp is supposed to take S.R. 313 over the railroad tracks and U.S. 1, then loop back around to a traffic light on U.S. 1. Again, Miller said the state or county could later build the flyover, but Flagler would build a more traditional intersection.

If Cordova Palms gets the go-ahead, Miller said work on the roadway would begin as soon as the company could get the necessary right-of-way. If, for some reason, the southern portion was not built at the same time, he said the south end of the highway could be connected in the meantime to Woodlawn Road.

Digging a little deeper we seem to be squarely on the radar in a way that Orlando and Tampa are not.