Four takeaways from Jacksonville's 2012 election results

[Cheshire Cat]

Borrowed from a friend.



"...As well as Romney executed the GOP playbook, his campaign in Florida was undercut by stunning results in three counties: Duval, Osceola and Miami-Dade.

“He did not win Duval County by the margin needed to win in a statewide race in Florida,” said Chris Ingram, a
Republican political consultant based in Tampa.

Duval, home to Jacksonville, has long been a strong GOP county; former president George W. Bush had a 61,000-vote advantage there in winning Florida in 2004. But Romney on Tuesday appeared to carry the county by just under 15,000 votes.

The result was a 46,000-vote deficit â€" nearly the amount by which Romney trailed Obama statewide.

Other counties underperformed for Republicans, but veteran GOP campaign manager Jamie Miller said Duval stands out because of how critical it has been in helping offset Democratic strongholds in southeast Florida..."


Diane M.

[thelakelander]

What was the Duval County difference in 2008.  Wasn't it similar?

[Cheshire Cat]

I will take a look Ennis.   






Diane M.

[Cheshire Cat]

McCain won Duval by 17,919 votes in 2008.  Still more than what Romney got this time around.



Diane M.

[thelakelander]

Interesting.  Diane, what's your take on this?  Could it be that Duval's base doesn't exactly align with the conservative platform pushed by the Tea Party and Sean Hannity types?  Could it be that as Jacksonville continues to grow, our population is becoming more diverse and starting to resemble demographics similar with most large urban centers across the country?

[John P]

I take away that Mack was a bad candidate and Nelson was more appeal to republicans than given credit for. Hes an old white guy that went to space afterall. Of course hes trustworthy.

[Lunican]

President Obama and his formidable campaign machine out-performed the Republicans, holding together a winning coalition that is the face of America’s tomorrow: young voters, urban voters, racially and ethnically diverse voters and women voters.

According to exit polls, Obama won 60 percent of the 18 to 29 year old vote and 52 percent of the 30-40 vote. He won 69 percent of the vote in big cities and 58 percent of the vote in mid-sized cities. He won 93 percent of the black vote and more than 70 percent of both the Asian vote and the Hispanic vote. He won over half of the female vote. And he won 76 percent of the gay, lesbian and bisexual vote.

Mitt Romney won the white vote, the male vote, the elderly vote, the small cities vote and the high-income vote.

The base of Democratic support in this country is expanding. The Republican base is shrinking, becoming more racially homogenous, more rural and older.

Reality made for a great rending of garments and gnashing of teeth among conservatives.

Full Article:
http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/07/picket-fence-apocalypse/?hp

[Cheshire Cat]

I have several thoughts about this Ennis.  First and foremost is that our demographics in Jacksonville are changing and as such there will be a change in what political party continues to carry Duval if Democrats remain wise to this fact.  I believe that the difference in numbers from 2004, 2008 to 2012 has a great deal to do with the turnout of Black voters in this county and other areas throughout the nation, behind them come women, Latino's and Asians.  As you know Jacksonville/Duval has always had many more registered Democrats than Republicans.  It has been the inability to turn out the Democrat voter that has plagued our city when it comes to voting tallies and continued Republican control.  It was clearly the Black Democrat vote that has most impacted the local Republican stronghold.  This can be seen when we look at the makeup of our city council as well.  In largely Black communities, even before 2012 Blacks have consistently elected Black leaders.  The Black community to date has almost always supported a Black candidate in a race.  The overwhelming vote totals this community delivered to Obama more than proves this out.  The attempts of some Republican power players to repress the Black/minority vote in many areas of our nation further evidences the fear some have that once Black/minority voters recognize their power at the polls, things in politics can and will change.

At the national level we are seeing our country move from a White majority to a White minority.  This will happen in my lifetime for sure and I am currently 60 years old.  I also believe this is what is meant to happen in our country which is after all a country of immigrants.  We are witnessing the passing of the days of "Good Old Boy" politics in this country which will unfortunately take longer in Jacksonville than in other areas.  This is because many minority players in our local political scene are in office because of the work of the old White "Good Old Boy" politicians and the money behind them.  Our current mayor being a prime example.  The failure of the Black community to recognize this practice as voter repression also impacts the quality of leadership we see in this city.

How quickly we see a change in Duval from a Republican stronghold to a Democrat stronghold will become clear when Obama leaves office and we face yet another Presidential election.  Obama who I see as a bi-racial man is seen by most as a Black man, in spite of being equally white and black.  He was supported by Blacks as a Black man.  That says something about human perception I believe.  None the less, if the next Democrat candidate for the office of President is not Black, what can we expect when it comes to voter turnout?  Or if the Republicans come up with a strong minority candidate what would happen then?  It is hard to predict the outcome right now which is why you can bet both political camps are busily trying to figure out how to present themselves and a future candidate to their voting base.  Duval is still in many ways a bellwether for Florida politics which is why we get so much attention during state and national races.

The game change for Republicans will be when minorities rally behind minorities and vote in minority candidates regardless of them being Black, Hispanic, Asian or of any other minority group.  The Republican party in spite of their claims of inclusion is still a party for Whites, unless that changes they will eventually find they no longer have control over Duval politics.  They have already lost that control at the National level and unless they make some major changes in they way they do business they will not see a candidate of theirs become President in the near future.



Diane M.

[thelakelander]

Romney campaign: We lost Florida

Though votes are still being tallied, President Obama is all but assured a victory in Florida because the lion’s share of the outstanding ballots come from Democratic-heavy counties.

The numbers in Florida look unlikely to change in Romney’s favor.

Miami-Dade finished tallying a backlog of 54,000 absentee ballots Thursday and it marginally increased Obama’s lead.

Still outstanding:

• Broward County. It has about 15,000 absentee ballots outstanding. Obama won Broward 67-32 percent. If those numbers hold, it would give Obama 2,887 more votes.

• Palm Beach County. It could have as many as 30,000 votes yet to add to its tally. Obama won that county 58-41 percent. If those numbers hold, Obama would pick up another 5,141 votes.

• Duval County. The only non-South Florida County, Duval has about 3,600 absentee ballots to be counted. Romney won it narrowly, 51-48 percent. At that rate, Romney would only pick up 133 more votes.

Even if the estimates from South Florida were reversed and Obama’s extra projected votes were handed to Romney, the Republican would still lose by about 32,000 votes.

full article: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/08/3087995/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida.html

[Tacachale]

LOL, not so "irrelevant" after all, eh lake?