Four takeaways from Jacksonville's 2012 election results

[AbelH]

We've heard everything the national pundits have said about Tuesday's election results, but politics at its core is local. And there are takeaways hidden within Jacksonville's returns that give us a glimpse into the psyche of local voters. In no particular order, here are four things we learned, or were reminded of.

Jacksonville is still a Republican city. Sure, the margins have tightened in the last decade, but we're still reliably Republican. Mitt Romney managed to grow the GOP's percentage of victory in Duval County when compared to John McCain's performance in 2008 and Republicans won the Clerk of Court race and a state Senate seat. There was an exception, of course. This year's triumph by U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson was the latest proof that a Democrat can carry Jacksonville, but we'll discuss that in more detail in a moment.

Voters didn't fall for easy sound bites on tax cuts. Amendments 3 and 4, which would have capped state revenues by limiting revenue growth to match increases in cost of living and population and placed an annual assessment cap on businesses and second homes, lost in Jacksonville by a wide margin. Voters saw beyond the easy promise of "lower taxes" and heard genuine concern that the amendments could cripple local governments. And they rejected it, despite an unwillingness by Jacksonville leaders to take a firm stance against the amendments. What does it mean for Jacksonville's ongoing debate on annual property tax cuts? That remains to be seen, but it does seem to indicate an unwillingness on the part of Jacksonville voters to vote in favor of bills that potentially could have cut local services.

Jacksonville voters aren't social issue voters. Amendment 6, which would have limited abortion rights in the state, suffered a narrow loss in Jacksonville. Amendment 8, which would have repealed Florida's ban on public funding of religious organizations, suffered a similar fate. The results were surprising, particularly in light of the fact that both amendments were strongly backed by conservative churches, with most Catholic parishes placing signs in church yards to advocate for "Yes" votes. Despite the sermons delivered in churches across the city, voters wanted none of it. And in a city where the religious community has long played a powerful role in politics, most recently with the City Council's rejection of a city ordinance that would have banned discrimination against gays and lesbians, the result - however narrow - is notable.

The business community still wields a heavy hand in the city. Despite Jacksonville's GOP tilt, voters voted overwhelmingly - 53 percent to 44 percent - to return Democrat Bill Nelson to the U.S. Senate. His victory speaks to his extensive courting of Jacksonville's business community, even serving as the keynote speaker for a recent annual meeting of the Jacksonville Regional Chamber of Commerce. Many business leaders, recognizing the power a three-term Senator would have in a chamber where seniority trumps star power, were unwilling to take a chance on a newcomer. And voters, keenly aware of the ongoing spat with Virginia's congressional delegation over a naval carrier, followed their lead.

Your thoughts are welcome.

[dougskiles]

I was pleasantly surprised by the defeat of amendments 3 and 4.  I thought 4 would pass easily.  Hopefully you are right Abel, and we are beginning to reach the threshold of continued disinvestment in our city.

[Timkin]

I was pleasantly surprised by the defeat of amendments 3 and 4.  I thought 4 would pass easily.  Hopefully you are right Abel, and we are beginning to reach the threshold of continued disinvestment in our city.

^ +1    I voted against all the amendments

[thelakelander]

Me as well.  We're already in the red.  More tax cuts without first resolving the problems that keep us underwater makes no sense to me.

[I-10east]

When the last time that the president campaigned in Jax? I thought that he was very passive in Northeastern FL, as he focused most of he's attention on the 1-4 corridor. Now in hindsight, it absolutely was the right tactical decision, but maybe that's why the republicans won this county (only by 4 points BTW). Everytime I turned around, Mitt and Paul was here in Jax area campaigning.  I know that the first lady was here often, but there's no one like a president or challenger. All that I'm saying is don't expect a traditionally red county to suddenly turn blue if the big cheese is not actively campaigning here. 

[tufsu1]

Exactly i-10....Obama stopped here 4 times in 2008....he stopped here once this time...and yet, Romney only took 2 points away as compared with mccain

[thelakelander]

When the last time that the president campaigned in Jax? I thought that he was very passive in Northeastern FL, as he focused most of he's attention on the 1-4 corridor. Now in hindsight, it absolutely was the right tactical decision, but maybe that's why the republicans won this county (only by 4 points BTW). Everytime I turned around, Mitt and Paul was here in Jax area campaigning.  I know that the first lady was here often, but there's no one like a president or challenger. All that I'm saying is don't expect a traditionally red county to suddenly turn blue if the big cheese is not actively campaigning here. 

In a Presidential race for the electoral vote, I think when you look at Florida as a whole, Jacksonville is somewhat irrelevant.  Win South Florida, the I-4 Corridor, and a few college towns and that pretty much gives you the state.  In this race, it appears Obama spent more time on those two and employed a similar strategy in Ohio.

[I-10east]

^^^Well Mitt Romney certainly didn't think that Jax was irrelevant with all of that campaigning they were doing here.

[If_I_Loved_you]

^^^Well Mitt Romney certainly didn't think that Jax was irrelevant with all of that campaigning they were doing here.

Well Willard Mitt Romney did win in Old Jacksonville, Fl.

[I-10east]

^^^No kidding.

[Tacachale]

When the last time that the president campaigned in Jax? I thought that he was very passive in Northeastern FL, as he focused most of he's attention on the 1-4 corridor. Now in hindsight, it absolutely was the right tactical decision, but maybe that's why the republicans won this county (only by 4 points BTW). Everytime I turned around, Mitt and Paul was here in Jax area campaigning.  I know that the first lady was here often, but there's no one like a president or challenger. All that I'm saying is don't expect a traditionally red county to suddenly turn blue if the big cheese is not actively campaigning here. 

In a Presidential race for the electoral vote, I think when you look at Florida as a whole, Jacksonville is somewhat irrelevant.  Win South Florida, the I-4 Corridor, and a few college towns and that pretty much gives you the state.  In this race, it appears Obama spent more time on those two and employed a similar strategy in Ohio.

Are you kidding? Not only is the Jacksonville area a major Republican stronghold, Duval is also one of the few counties in all of North Florida where Democrats can reliably get a lot of votes. In a state that's consistently this close, every vote counts. For Reps, it's not a matter of "winning" South Florida and a few college towns, that's a fantasy. They need to do well in the north. And for Dems, mitigating the Republicans' advantage in Jacksonville by rallying their constituents, as Obama did twice, goes a long way in delivering the state.

[I-10east]

I get from some that Jax is a 'lost cause' concerning turning the county blue; Because 100% of Jax are just a bunch of tea party members who chew tobacco, and drive Toyota Tundras with bumper stickers talking about Civil War battles. I totally disagree with that mentality. I still think that the POTUS was way too passive in Jax. Last time that I checked, winning Duval County by around 4 points isn't a landslide (like Romney did) and most importantly winning the state by only 46K votes CERTAINLY is not a landslide. So for the next presidential democrat candidate in 2016, I wouldn't be so passive in Northeastern Florida.

[jerry cornwell]

Are you kidding? Not only is the Jacksonville area a major Republican stronghold, Duval is also one of the few counties in all of North Florida where Democrats can reliably get a lot of votes. In a state that's consistently this close, every vote counts. For Reps, it's not a matter of "winning" South Florida and a few college towns, that's a fantasy. They need to do well in the north. And for Dems, mitigating the Republicans' advantage in Jacksonville by rallying their constituents, as Obama did twice, goes a long way in delivering the state.

Agreed..... every vote counted. All be it nationally.

[thelakelander]

When the last time that the president campaigned in Jax? I thought that he was very passive in Northeastern FL, as he focused most of he's attention on the 1-4 corridor. Now in hindsight, it absolutely was the right tactical decision, but maybe that's why the republicans won this county (only by 4 points BTW). Everytime I turned around, Mitt and Paul was here in Jax area campaigning.  I know that the first lady was here often, but there's no one like a president or challenger. All that I'm saying is don't expect a traditionally red county to suddenly turn blue if the big cheese is not actively campaigning here. 

In a Presidential race for the electoral vote, I think when you look at Florida as a whole, Jacksonville is somewhat irrelevant.  Win South Florida, the I-4 Corridor, and a few college towns and that pretty much gives you the state.  In this race, it appears Obama spent more time on those two and employed a similar strategy in Ohio.

Are you kidding? Not only is the Jacksonville area a major Republican stronghold, Duval is also one of the few counties in all of North Florida where Democrats can reliably get a lot of votes. In a state that's consistently this close, every vote counts. For Reps, it's not a matter of "winning" South Florida and a few college towns, that's a fantasy. They need to do well in the north. And for Dems, mitigating the Republicans' advantage in Jacksonville by rallying their constituents, as Obama did twice, goes a long way in delivering the state.

No I'm not kidding and I didn't mean to make it read like I'm saying every person's vote doesn't count.  I'm just saying if you wanted to tilt the state blue, it wouldn't hurt to spend more time and resources lobbying a larger segment of the State's population, especially the swinging I-4 corridor and its 7 million residents.

[fsujax]

I voted NO on all the amendments just on principle alone.