Final 40 miles to Orlando a problem for FEC train project?

[thelakelander]

If it is a success and extended to Jax, a station would be needed in Cocoa.

[buckethead]

From the expressway authority:

"A depot in Cocoa could end up costing the expressway money because it could siphon toll-paying motorists off the road and onto the train, said agency director Max Crumit. That likely would be a deal breaker between the authority and the train, he said."

So, I guess Florida does know that people will use rail but that would mean less cars on the road.  However, less cars on the road means less money on the road, which means "no deal."  With the first phase of the Outer Beltway under construction, I wonder if there could be some opposition to commuter rail into Clay County when its deemed it could potentially siphon drivers off the beltway, which would put a huge dent in toll revenue projections.

And this is really the underlying reason why rail projects (and good public transit in general) gets the shaft in most places, but FL especially. Highways & sprawl are big business here. As I said in another thread, its not about sound investments, giving people options & making travel safer, but continuing the rackets & keeping everyone chained to that system so they're forced to play into that whole game. Anyone who doesn't realize this simply isn't thinking deeply enough about it or are playing some kind of party politics.

As a side note, that's really when you know the good states from the bad states. The ones who actually invest in their people & communities, truly making them better with people's best interests in mind are getting harder to find. They're out there, just not a lot of them. But the dirt bags down here seem like they want none of that, while many of them repeating the tea bagger mantras of being "conservative", but only on things their masters hand pick themselves as being so.

But the joke will eventually be on them because those kinds of plans are never sustainable. They always bust, but sadly usually after a few of them get rich & get what they wanted out of it, leaving everyone else in the dirt.

Well said, PSU. The MJ crew have been telling us this (subtly) for years. I sometimes need to be hit over the head with a point to realize it.

As far as your last sentence, the joke won't be on them. They will have amassed capital and contacts. They will continue to use the state as an agent of plunder, even if they need to modify their "business model".

[Ocklawaha]

If it is a success and extended to Jax, a station would be needed in Cocoa.

Not necessarily, a train could just continue straight down the coast to the WPB-FLL-MIA stations. The Jacksonville-Orlando market is better served on the 'A' line. Jacksonville-Tampa is better served from the 'S' line, but the 'A' reaches more population. I think the Governor and FDOT threw the Central Florida I-75 corridor under the train when they made the CSX/Sunrail deal. Though I have never seen that in print, if true, I wouldn't have been nearly so happy about the Sunrail decisions.

[thelakelander]

Just being honest, I doubt an FEC passenger train will be operating on either the CSX A or S line, just like I doubted this Miami/Orlando train would go into downtown Orlando or utilize a route other than SR 528 to get to Orlando.   If FEC succeeds in building a line along SR 528, then going up the coast becomes a superior option for a FEC-based Jax-Orlando extension because they can tap into St. Augustine and Daytona with ease, since their tracks are already in place.  Going the A Line route bypasses those major tourist destinations and puts them on State/CSX tracks.

[Ocklawaha]

Just being honest, I doubt an FEC passenger train will be operating on either the CSX A or S line, just like I doubted this Miami/Orlando train would go into downtown Orlando or utilize a route other than SR 528 to get to Orlando.   If FEC succeeds in building a line along SR 528, then going up the coast becomes a superior option for a FEC-based Jax-Orlando extension because they can tap into St. Augustine and Daytona with ease, since their tracks are already in place.  Going the A Line route bypasses those major tourist destinations and puts them on State/CSX tracks.

I believe you got confused with my last post.

FEC would not run trains from Jacksonville to Orlando as their route is circuitous at best. People might connect at some future Cocoa station from a southbound to a westbound FEC, but why would they if they could just ride the 'A' line on Amtrak. I'm not saying the FEC is operating on the A or the S, only that a train from Jax to Orl on the 'all FEC' route is unlikely.

I expect we'll see Jax-Mia in a fairly short time, just as I expect they'll find a way to advance some trains into downtown Orlando as soon as they realize they won't make projections from OIA alone. Sunrail could do the trick, but then you have that transfer-WITH-baggage thing that would dampen usage. Sunrail from points north of Sand Lake to Deland running into OIA should be a success in it's own right, but the FEC isn't going to see much traffic from that.

[thelakelander]

FEC has stated that they'd possibly extend to Jax if their initial route is successful. If they do, there's several reasons to pick it over Amtrak. A few that come to mind are frequency (every hour vs Amtrak's two trains a day) and potential stops in St. Augustine and Daytona.

[Dog Walker]

Couldn't they split a train at a Cocoa station; part to JAX part to Orlando & Tampa?

Ock, how does train splitting work?

[Ocklawaha]

FEC has stated that they'd possibly extend to Jax if their initial route is successful. If they do, there's several reasons to pick it over Amtrak. A few that come to mind are frequency (every hour vs Amtrak's two trains a day) and potential stops in St. Augustine and Daytona.

True, but the FEC mainline is unlikely to become a Jacksonville-Orlando speedway. Fact is Red Coach proved that there isn't exactly a booming market on Jacksonville-Orlando surface traffic and the dearth of carriers on the JAX-ORL air route is likewise a red flag. If they add Jacksonville, I would expect those trains to originate and terminate in Miami and possibly even connect with an as yet unknown frequency of Amtrak service north to New York, Atlanta or even Chicago. A hypothetical, mostly 79 mph Jax-Orlando train on the FEC isn't going to be any faster to Orlando then a 79 mph Amtrak train on the 'A' line, add going all the way to Cocoa first and they've screwed the pooch on that one. I have heard unofficial rattling about restoration (though the local officials don't generally know it as 'restoration') of FEC service to the Orlando area from Daytona Beach... Not saying it will, or will even be seriously considered without a bunch of public bucks, but the old right-of-way from New Smyrna to Bithlo or SR528 is almost all still intact. Daytona and St. Augustine could be a factor in the larger tourism picture, but I don't expect much movement given the political slant in NE Florida.

Couldn't they split a train at a Cocoa station; part to JAX part to Orlando & Tampa?

Ock, how does train splitting work?

In some countries trains can split while in motion, but that requires two complete sets of equipment to run entrain from A to B, the point of the split, in order to reach C,D,E and X,Y,Z.  You can spot these trains in EU based films, but even these mostly wait until they get into a station before effecting the actual split, or rejoining of 'sections.'  Such trains will have the locomotive, typically one on each end, coupled to another locomotive-train-locomotive set. The rear locomotives always face in reverse so the trains do not have to be turned at their terminals.

In this country and many others, splitting or joining sections is/was easily done in large terminals. This is something we no doubt led the country in right up until 1974 and slightly beyond. No terminal anywhere had as many sections, coming together as Jacksonville. In this case a trains pulls into a station, a switcher cuts off the cars that will form the new train (technically a 'section') Usually the switcher pulls the cars back, then shoves the forward on an adjacent track for boarding. A locomotive backs down and couples onto the front of the newly minted section and it's off to the races. Meanwhile the other section (now roughly 50% shorter +/-) is ready to head out to it's destination.

Amtrak wants to return this type of operation to a Jacksonville Terminal. We were and still are at the apex of where Los Angeles, Memphis, St. Louis, Chicago, Cincinnati, and New York City meets Miami, Tampa and Orlando. 

[thelakelander]

FEC has stated that they'd possibly extend to Jax if their initial route is successful. If they do, there's several reasons to pick it over Amtrak. A few that come to mind are frequency (every hour vs Amtrak's two trains a day) and potential stops in St. Augustine and Daytona.

True, but the FEC mainline is unlikely to become a Jacksonville-Orlando speedway. Fact is Red Coach proved that there isn't exactly a booming market on Jacksonville-Orlando surface traffic and the dearth of carriers on the JAX-ORL air route is likewise a red flag.

That's not what I'm implying.  Quite honestly, you could end up with more people doing a Daytona to Orlando than a Jax to Orlando. What I'm saying is if FEC were to extend their line north to Jax, it would make sense to have a station in Cocoa to at least allow the transfer.

I have heard unofficial rattling about restoration (though the local officials don't generally know it as 'restoration') of FEC service to the Orlando area from Daytona Beach... Not saying it will, or will even be seriously considered without a bunch of public bucks, but the old right-of-way from New Smyrna to Bithlo or SR528 is almost all still intact.

You've probably heard what essentially was me and another consultant doing a presentation for FDOT about options for possibly doing a study to connect Sunrail to Daytona Beach in Volusia County several months ago.  Over the last couple of years, I've done a lot of work for officials and key stakeholders in the area and know their projects pretty well. Next MJ meeting, I can give you the details on exactly what was asked of me.

Daytona and St. Augustine could be a factor in the larger tourism picture, but I don't expect much movement given the political slant in NE Florida.

I expect FECI to take advantage of Daytona and St. Augustine before anything of substance comes from Jacksonville, FDOT or Amtrak.  Don't forget, St. Augustine is planning a huge celebration in 2015 to commemorate its 450th anniversary. Luckily, we'll benefit from being in the right location.

[Ocklawaha]

As a transfer station Cocoa makes all of the sense in the world, but it isn't necessary for the success of a JAX-MIA or TPA/ORL-MIA route. I too think they've already decided to build it, I just don't think they'll build it initially for either transfers, or Jax in mind.

I recall you talking about the Daytona, Sunrail, link. I also recall talks well back into the 1960's about the same possibility. Every half decade or so the idea kind of rears up and crosses the radar screen again.

Amtrak has got to be watching this election and thinking, 'OMG, we let 4 years of the only friendly administration in the history of the railroad waltz right past us and now...?'

[thelakelander]

A few months ago, I was asked to give a presentation for the entity that would actually take the talks and dreams and see if it is worth them funding it.  My guess is it probably isn't, along the corridor they're considering.  I think it was already a stretch and now with the potential FECI connection, those prospects become less feasible.

As you know, it's not best to look at a rail route based on end points.  While Cocoa may not be critical to Jax-Miami overall, I do believe it is critical for Central Florida as this system builds out and is relied upon more by residents.  That whole region is rapidly growing into one super region.  With that in mind, I'm talking about Daytona-Cocoa, Cocoa-Orlando type trips. For example, the engineer that lives in Daytona or Orlando but works near Cape Canaveral.  The tourist in Orlando who goes to Port Canaveral for cruise.  Brevard County has something like 550,000 residents now with a lot more room to grow and infill. OOCEA may have problems with a Cocoa stop right now, but once new development starts sprouting up along the Beach Line's 40 miles, that uneasiness will go away.

[Ocklawaha]

Actually, Daytona-Deland-Orange City-Debary-Sanford would make a fantastic light-rail line.

I think we are in full agreement then that Cocoa is not necessary for the ultimate success of the project, but it is extremely likely.

I also think Melbourne and Fort Pierce will likely join the party at some future date.

Certainly it is going to be fun to watch because if this thing is a success, 'put out the fire and call in the dogs,' we might be on the cusp of a new rail travel era.

[thelakelander]

Actually, Daytona-Deland-Orange City-Debary-Sanford would make a fantastic light-rail line.

Don't know about this.  It's 30 miles of environmentally sensitive land between Daytona and Deltona alone.  You'll easily shell out +$2 billion for LRT to connect this sprawling communities and ridership would still be questionable.  Despite there being no direct existing rail corridor to take advantage of, commuter rail would be cheaper and I still question the feasibility of that option.  If you have $2 billion to spend, without a doubt, you'd be better off dropping it on several other truly congested and developable Florida corridors.

I think we are in full agreement then that Cocoa is not necessary for the ultimate success of the project, but it is extremely likely.

I think a project with Cocoa/Brevard County included has greater chances for success than one without it.  A "C" is considered passing but you should strive for a "A".