Could we see $150 per barrel oil soon?

[Shwaz]

We already have solutions, but since things aren't that bad there's no reason to implement them.  We could bu oil independent in 5 years if it was absolutely necessary.

+1

And what are the solutions? What exists now that isn't being brought to market?

Solutions are all over the place. The problem is that we are born and raised to think supply and demand is some god given law. It's not--especially when corporations and the wealthy elite control the supply--and the demand is mainly fictitious. Most people don't have time to worry about changing the status quo (families to feed, businesses to run, bills to pay). There's really no incentive at the top of the system to institute these changes. If the oil is flowing, why change it?

Um how about some examples? How do we get milk from the cow to grocery store without oil?
How can I get from Los Angeles to NYC in a matter of hours with out oil? How will we manufacture the following products when the oil crisis hits?


Solvents

Diesel fuel

Motor Oil

Bearing Grease

Ink

Floor Wax

Ballpoint Pens

Football Cleats

Upholstery

Sweaters

Boats

Insecticides

Bicycle Tires

Sports Car Bodies

Nail Polish

Fishing lures

Dresses

Tires

Golf Bags

Perfumes

Cassettes

Dishwasher parts

Tool Boxes

Shoe Polish

Motorcycle Helmet

Caulking

Petroleum Jelly

Transparent Tape

CD Player

Faucet Washers

Antiseptics

Clothesline

Curtains

Food Preservatives

Basketballs

Soap

Vitamin Capsules

Antihistamines

Purses

Shoes

Dashboards

Cortisone

Deodorant

Footballs

Putty

Dyes

Panty Hose

Refrigerant

Percolators

Life Jackets

Rubbing Alcohol

Linings

Skis

TV Cabinets

Shag Rugs

Electrician's Tape

Tool Racks

Car Battery Cases

Epoxy

Paint

Mops

Slacks

Insect Repellent

Oil Filters

Umbrellas

Yarn

Fertilizers

Hair Coloring

Roofing

Toilet Seats

Fishing Rods

Lipstick

Denture Adhesive

Linoleum

Ice Cube Trays

Synthetic Rubber

Speakers

Plastic Wood

Electric Blankets

Glycerin

Tennis Rackets

Rubber Cement

Fishing Boots

Dice

Nylon Rope

Candles

Trash Bags

House Paint

Water Pipes

Hand Lotion

Roller Skates

Surf Boards

Shampoo

Wheels

Paint Rollers

Shower Curtains

Guitar Strings

Luggage

Aspirin

Safety Glasses

Antifreeze

Football Helmets

Awnings

Eyeglasses

Clothes

Toothbrushes

Ice Chests

Footballs

Combs

CD's & DVD's

Paint Brushes

Detergents

Vaporizers

Balloons

Sun Glasses

Tents

Heart Valves

Crayons

Parachutes

Telephones

Enamel

Pillows

Dishes

Cameras

Anesthetics

Artificial Turf

Artificial limbs

Bandages

Dentures

Model Cars

Folding Doors

Hair Curlers

Cold cream

Movie film

Soft Contact lenses

Drinking Cups

Fan Belts

Car Enamel

Shaving Cream

Ammonia

Refrigerators

Golf Balls

Toothpaste

Gasoline

[ben says]

You're asking the wrong questions, and using the wrong premises. In that case, why bother?

Moreover, using oil for pens and bike tires is one thing. Using oil to fuel energy for 6 billion people is another. How about baby steps in the right direction?

[PeeJayEss]

Who doesn't know that oil isn't renewable. This notion that oil will increase to some outrageous magic number and poof the nation never uses another drop is retarded. Like all of sudden commuter rail lines sprout up - Boeing unveils their brand new 747 'Volt' Jet - the government hands out a Segway to every American.

Its not a magic number. Prices go up gradually, and people change their habits gradually. We already saw this in 2008 when prices peaked. Mass transit ridership was up and vehicles miles were down, some freight was switched from road to rail, American companies started moving some jobs back to America, and people started clamoring more for alternatives to gas transit. No one is proposing that when oil hits $200, HSR and advanced city infrastructure will fall out of the sky, but as the price of gas goes up, the alternatives get more and more attractive.

Friedman has been pushing the gas tax idea for a while, and I think its spot on. Gas-powered cars are not the future, we already know this. They are certainly the easiest, quickest, and cheapest way to get around right now, but they won't be forever. Yes, the market will eventually take care of the transition by itself when gas prices rise, but it won't do so gently. Raising the price of gasoline artificially (tax) will disincentive gas-powered cars now and give us an investment in the future (of course, the government will probably misuse the money, but thats a different story). What we absolutely DON'T want to do is what McCain proposed during the election: tap into our reserves to keep the price of gas down at the pump temporarily. That's just dumb (and bad for security and future growth).

[PeeJayEss]

Shwaz, I really hate that you made your post that long for no reason. Anyway, I think the things you listed are exactly the reason we should not be wasting oil on gasoline. I think plastics are much more important to our future (food, medical devices, space-age tech, and all the other things you listed so obnoxiously) than internal combustion engines. I think putting oil in our engines and lighting it on fire is horribly wasteful in comparison. As the price of gas goes up, the price for all those much more important things goes up. If we can chill out with the gas usage, we can stabilize the price of the others.

[Shwaz]

You're asking the wrong questions, and using the wrong premises. In that case, why bother?

Moreover, using oil for pens and bike tires is one thing. Using oil to fuel energy for 6 billion people is another. How about baby steps in the right direction?

Baby steps?! We're talking about the great oil crisis of 2011! From what you've said here the solutions are ready to go it's just a matter of sparking the catalyst.

[dougskiles]

I am truly terrified of an oil catastrophe.

None of us have any control over whether or not the 'crisis' occurs.  But we all have control over how well we prepare for it.  From what I can see, we have done nothing to prepare.  We are no different than New Orleans waiting for Katrina.  And I'm sure there will be plenty of blame to throw around if it ever does happen.  But none of those fingers will be pointed back at ourselves for not being prepared.

To think that we can't survive without oil is ridiculous to me and shows a lack of faith in human ingenuity.  I welcome the day that outside forces get us off our comfortable rear ends and get us back into the mindset of innovation as a means of survival.

[Captain Zissou]

When an oil crisis hits, nobody is going to care about football cleats, fishing rods, or curtains.

People will care about remaining employed and being able to get to and from work.  Once we've dealt with the big issues, then we can worry about sports car bodies.  

[Shwaz]

Shwaz, I really hate that you made your post that long for no reason. Anyway, I think the things you listed are exactly the reason we should not be wasting oil on gasoline. I think plastics are much more important to our future (food, medical devices, space-age tech, and all the other things you listed so obnoxiously) than internal combustion engines. I think putting oil in our engines and lighting it on fire is horribly wasteful in comparison. As the price of gas goes up, the price for all those much more important things goes up. If we can chill out with the gas usage, we can stabilize the price of the others.

My apologies for asking questions, citing examples and looking for a direct answers. This is a deep discussion about mounting oil prices, possible solutions and the effects of a pricing crisis.

"Americans consume petroleum products at a rate of three-and-a-half gallons of oil and more than
250 cubic feet of natural gas per day each! But, as shown here petroleum is not just used for fuel."

Hoping for a crisis to solve our dependence on oil is asinine because the long list of products I so obnoxiously listed will skyrocket and cripple our economy as a result.

[Shwaz]

When an oil crisis hits, nobody is going to care about football cleats, fishing rods, or curtains.

People will care about remaining employed and being able to get to and from work.  Once we've dealt with the big issues, then we can worry about sports car bodies.  

Sure there are plenty of items on the list that are easily dismissible... but there are 100x more that are necessities. When families can't afford to put food on the table even while holding a job things won't be so easy to laugh off.

And for the record the workers who build and supply those football cleats & fishing rods will certainly care when their industry collapses.

[PeeJayEss]

Hoping for a crisis to solve our dependence on oil is asinine because the long list of products I so obnoxiously listed will skyrocket and cripple our economy as a result.

As long as we're in agreement that the list was obnoxious.

All I'm asking is what's more important to you: Sanitary food and medical care or filling up your gas tank so that you can commute to work instead of living close to it?

[Shwaz]

You do realize that both sanitary food and medical care will drastically increase in cost on account of an oil crisis, right?

When industries collapse people aren't going be able to just relocate their homes & families to be closer to the job that no longer exists.

Throw out some solutions and explain how they will be advanced along by a hypothetical oil crises.

[JeffreyS]

I am truly terrified of an oil catastrophe.

None of us have any control over whether or not the 'crisis' occurs.  But we all have control over how well we prepare for it.  From what I can see, we have done nothing to prepare.  We are no different than New Orleans waiting for Katrina.  And I'm sure there will be plenty of blame to throw around if it ever does happen.  But none of those fingers will be pointed back at ourselves for not being prepared.

To think that we can't survive without oil is ridiculous to me and shows a lack of faith in human ingenuity.  I welcome the day that outside forces get us off our comfortable rear ends and get us back into the mindset of innovation as a means of survival.

I am sure we can survive . I own a fleet of diesel trucks however and it's gonna be one hell of a pinch.

[JHAT76]

You do realize that both sanitary food and medical care will drastically increase in cost on account of an oil crisis, right?

When industries collapse people aren't going be able to just relocate their homes & families to be closer to the job that no longer exists.

Throw out some solutions and explain how they will be advanced along by a hypothetical oil crises.

I agree with this.  If an oil crises, how will people be able to sell the houses they live in now, and move closer to their job?  Who will want that far away house?  Even moving closer the ripple affect on food, utilities, clothes (ie the basics) with seriously cut into a person's spending power even if.

[BridgeTroll]

I am truly terrified of an oil catastrophe.

None of us have any control over whether or not the 'crisis' occurs.  But we all have control over how well we prepare for it.  From what I can see, we have done nothing to prepare.  We are no different than New Orleans waiting for Katrina.  And I'm sure there will be plenty of blame to throw around if it ever does happen.  But none of those fingers will be pointed back at ourselves for not being prepared.

To think that we can't survive without oil is ridiculous to me and shows a lack of faith in human ingenuity.  I welcome the day that outside forces get us off our comfortable rear ends and get us back into the mindset of innovation as a means of survival.

I am sure we can survive . I own a fleet of diesel trucks however and it's gonna be one hell of a pinch.

Yep... and the price increase will be passed along correct?

[PeeJayEss]

You do realize that both sanitary food and medical care will drastically increase in cost on account of an oil crisis, right?

Hence the need to avoid the catastrophe by using less gas right?

When industries collapse people aren't going be able to just relocate their homes & families to be closer to the job that no longer exists.

Gas WILL get prohibitively expensive at some point, this is obvious. Anyone with half a brain would be relocating already. And yes, prices in the burbs will drop (they already are).