Gov. Scott's Rail Decisions To Impact Jacksonville

[PeeJayEss]

I want HSR, but I want it right.

Sending the $2.4 billion away gets you no where closer to your wish.  There's no alternative on the table and there won't be for years when this goes down the drain.  After all, we've been debating this exact project for the last +20 years or so. 

If you want it right, then you want it put out to bid by the private sector, in a manner that allows them to make modifications that makes it feasible to the point of where they'd risk their own funds on it.  If you're willing to wait until your grandkids have kids, then pass without an alternative plan or funding is the way to go.

I agree. However, even if we passed completely right now, I don't think we'd have to wait until our "grandkids have kids." These rail projects are only going to get more attractive as the price of oil goes up. I, for one, welcome that.

[thelakelander]

The line of work I'm involved in forces me to view things from a financial status, as well as from an idealistic standpoint.  The price of oil has risen before and it didn't result in anything.  In addition, you don't want to be caught totally dependent on a single mode when you finally realize that economic collapse is directly upon you.  Planning and funding major projects takes time (umm.. decades).  For example, during the time we've discussed HSR in this state, I've seen people have kids and their kids have kids and today we're no further along than we were in the 80s.  I've also seen cities like Charlotte make their needed investments and rise from nothing into an elite status (leaving a place like Jax in the dust) during the same time period.  Just remember, we're already behind the eight ball, other places have gotten their act together and are moving forward.  The more we delay (without factual data telling us its the right thing to do), the more we fall behind.

[Dashing Dan]

Thanks for the article.  Whether or not Florida gets on board with rail, let's make the most of our existing transit services and facilities here in Jacksonville.  We have an extensive bus system that needs more more riders.  A policy for complete streets would help a lot, and the marginal costs for that would be quite modest.

[thelakelander]

I agree.  Realistically, with the fallout at state level, this is going to be Jax's only short term solution.  Unfortunately, outside of the skyway, we won't be able to take advantage of the economic development and connectivity fixed transit brings to urban communities and their revitalization efforts.

[dougskiles]

I agree.  Realistically, with the fallout at state level, this is going to be Jax's only short term solution.  Unfortunately, outside of the skyway, we won't be able to take advantage of the economic development and connectivity fixed transit brings to urban communities and their revitalization efforts.

I agree, but I disagree, too.  The political scene is a pendulum.  Recently it has swung to the right.  And the farther right it goes before it stops, the more momentum there will be to keep it swinging left.

I see no reason why we can't extend the skyway and implement a streetcar system without state and federal help.  In fact, I was talking to one of JTA's brightest and he told me the process would move much faster if we do these things without federal help because we won't have to go through the mind-numbing process of studying the feasibility - over and over again until someone decides to pull the plug.

I also believe that commuter rail will come.  I talk to a lot of people on a regular basis - who live in the suburbs.  All of them like the idea of being able to ride a train to downtown.  Once we get enough people excited about it, the politicians will start to listen.  These things have to start at the bottom and work their way up - not the other way around.

[thelakelander]

1. It is a pendulum.  Over the last couple of years, if swung to the left.  Now, its beginning to swing to the right.  The key to taking advantage of anything is to have plans in place to be able to implement them when the political climate swings in a certain direction.  So, far we've mastered blowing opportunities when they present themselves.  When you strike out, you may catch the next pendulum, but you're probably looking at that being 5 years to a decade away.

2. The local will or money isn't there to extend the skyway anytime soon.  To do so, will have to involve public/private partnerships.  Not saying this can't be done, but you're back on that 5 year to decade period of putting all the details together to make such a project a reality.  If the mobility plan comes into effect, there will be money to get an initial streetcar line off the ground.  But again, you're looking 5 to 10 years before being able to hop on it.  Reducing that time period, is going to have to require a change in local mentality.

3. Commuter rail will eventually come also.  However, you're still going to have to overcome the financial challenge of pulling it off.  Again, you're looking at a good decade if everything falls into place.

Thus, short term, the easiest and most cost efficient thing to do is to work to improve and better take advantage of what's already in place.

[dougskiles]

Thus, short term, the easiest and most cost efficient thing to do is to work to improve and better take advantage of what's already in place.

Absolutely!  And I believe that should always be part of the plan for improvement.

There is no reason we can't continue to work behind the scenes and gain support from both the private and public entities.  As fuel costs rise, our job will get easier.  Before you know it, the opponents to transit will look around and realize that most of their support base has been eroded.

Keep the faith!

[Mattius92]

If the SunRail gets cut I am personally going to make sure Rick Scott doesn't get-reelected into office, because we could live with HSR, but the SunRail is an excellent idea, and if that falls then yep Jacksonville is screwed too. I have been Republican/Conservative for my whole life, but this right here is a plain glimpse of stupid.

[thelakelander]

Keep the faith!

I will.  However, I have to point out how issues like this in other communities can have a negative impact on our own.  Thus, when the next opportunity knocks, we'll make an attempt to get off the couch and open the door.

[TheGeo35]

I think that in the coming years Florida will stagnate without commuter and high speed rail. It's too bad that the federal funding dollars will go to some other state like New York to build their infrastructure while we will continue to be living like it's the 1950s. Please check out my response to Governor Scott's decision on TheGeo35 channel on YouTube.

[FSBlue]

I totally disagree with what this article is saying. High Speed Rail isn't the future in any sense. The 2.4 billion the government would've offered wouldn't have totally covered the cost. While some here are saying that the contractor would have covered these costs, that was never said and would have never happened. With the amount of lobbyists that have been in Tallahassee recently, had one told Scott they would've absorbed all the overruns, don't you think he would've given his stamp on it?

Nevermind that the proposed costs come somewhere from fantasy land. California is currently projecting the 1st segment of their new high speed rail will cost $67.8 million per mile while the proposed line between Orlando and Tampa was projected at $32.1 million. The estimate was made using a best case scenario. If the real costs came close to California's level, that means an extra $3 billion the state would have to cover.

Also, the ridership levels of 2.4 million have to be pulled out of thin air. Amtrax's best line, which goes between Boston to DC, carries approximately 3.5 million pay customers per year. The cities that line hits have more than 8 times the combined population of O-Town and Tampa.

[dougskiles]

With the amount of lobbyists that have been in Tallahassee recently, had one told Scott they would've absorbed all the overruns, don't you think he would've given his stamp on it?

Based on everything he has done since he took office, NO, I don't think he would have given his stamp on it.  He has made a string of unusual decisions (like selling state property improperly).  What has been mostly questioned on this site is why he didn't even give the private contractors a chance?  There was no reason evident, other than some personal political motiviation, why he would not let the process play itself out.  At any time up until contract award, he could have pulled the plug.  That is what has so many of his own party members upset with him.

[avonjax]

FSBlue...You are exactly why we may never get rail in Florida. And yes we will be left way behind. Keep in mind everytime there is a glitch on the other side of the world, oil prices skyrocket. Today a barrel of oil is almost 100 bucks. Prices this week reflect that change. Why? Unrest in Africa. The rising cost of transportation will kill the middle class once and for all. All we ever do is talk and wait for a better plan. Look around downtown Jax and see what that has resulted in. The city that Florida has left behind. Now Scott is doing the same thing our city leaders have been doing. NOTHING! It's now time to act. Not decades from now. This was a horrible decision, by a person who was playing follow the leader in the game of which Republican governor can kiss the butt of their constituents. Recovery be damned....

[JeffreyS]

He clearly killed it now out of fear that the problems he presented were being resolved.  If you believe this project is viable or not now is a disingenuous time to scuttle it.  Less than a month until the private proposals and modifications are allowed to be presented. No matter what your position on the project is you can tell the timing is political. (and it seems bad politics as well judging by the political heat he is taking even from the conservative and business sectors).

[tufsu1]

I totally disagree with what this article is saying. High Speed Rail isn't the future in any sense. The 2.4 billion the government would've offered wouldn't have totally covered the cost. While some here are saying that the contractor would have covered these costs, that was never said and would have never happened. With the amount of lobbyists that have been in Tallahassee recently, had one told Scott they would've absorbed all the overruns, don't you think he would've given his stamp on it?

Nevermind that the proposed costs come somewhere from fantasy land. California is currently projecting the 1st segment of their new high speed rail will cost $67.8 million per mile while the proposed line between Orlando and Tampa was projected at $32.1 million. The estimate was made using a best case scenario. If the real costs came close to California's level, that means an extra $3 billion the state would have to cover.

Also, the ridership levels of 2.4 million have to be pulled out of thin air. Amtrax's best line, which goes between Boston to DC, carries approximately 3.5 million pay customers per year. The cities that line hits have more than 8 times the combined population of O-Town and Tampa.

ok...let me try to explain (and provide the facts)

1. FDOT has been working closely with the private sector throughout this process....8 teams of firms have expressed interest...and they are keenly aware of the requirements that they take on the remaining costs, any overruns, and operating risks for 30 years....the main reason they are interested is the team selected for the Tampa-Orlando route has the first option on the Orlando-Miami route (where the real $ will be made)....below is a link listing the 8 teams...and a link to the overall procurement site...check it out

http://www.floridahighspeedrail.org/storage/interested-firms/HighSpeedRailTeams_111210.pdf

http://www.floridahighspeedrail.org/procurement-contracting

2. The main reason FL costs are so much lower is the ROW already exists.

3. the FL HSR ridership estimates are for 3 million per year....Acela trains in the northeast gets about the same...then add another 7 million riding regular Amtrak trains and another 2 million riding commuter rail on the same corridor...total of 12 million....btw, TriRail in South Florida gets close to 6 million riders a year.

Bottom line, if the Governor had allowed the process to conitnue, FDOYT would have requested bids from qualified teams...those teams in turn would have done their own ridership and revenue studies in order to make a bid and get the necessary financing...if the numbers didn't add up, they wouldn't submit and then the project would die (like the Outer Beltway).